UPDATE 10:26am EDT: I don’t expect much excitement in the next few hours, seems we’re range bound as of now. The stars lined up very nicely for the bears this morning, but I presciently smelled a fake out and stayed out, which I’m very thankful for right now. Berk and I have been mostly in cash for a week now, and it’s getting boring – could have taken the week off or worked on my devious plans for market domination.
Watch the 1333 pivot on the NQ and the 9200 on the YM right now, if we breach those with confidence we might see some fireworks.
Anyway, while we watch the paint dry, here is this:
UPDATE 11:01am EDT: In the last [...]
I’ll be very brief tonight – at least I’ll try to – we all know how this usually turns out. Today’s tape gave me plenty of opportunity to catch up on some tasks I had put on the back burner. Among other things I grudgingly relented to pressure and added that coveted medium term indicator the majority has been voting for (damn all of you!). I also produced two new and improved icons for the short term (daily) and medium term (weekly) indicators. Let’s do a quick icon roll call:
When you see this icon it is expected that the market rallies in the morning but then descents before the [...]
UPDATE 11:19am EDT: As you know Berk and I dipped our toes into a few short trades. The Yen seems to want to rally right now. It it can push through its NEXT pivot at 1.027 it’s rock & roll time. Below watch the 1.021 pivot – if that one is being breached I think we’re getting a strong rally in equities today. The TNX is dropping slightly after bouncing up in the morning. We are cautiously bearish right now, but this might of course change on short notice as there is a battle going on this morning.
BTW, the TED spread widened again – not good for the bulls, no matter where equities go today.
UPDATE 11:31am EDT: This is the list Berk [...]
I am trying to rush this out before I head out for the evening. Today’s action was not so standard Fed in “feel,” that is, the fluidity of trading. Normally on Fed days the trading is rigid, programmed large lots, especially right before they speak. Today, however, trading continued, albeit on light volume, right through when they were supposed to speak, with only a slight spike. Quite strange.
Aside from that though…Fed cut, stocks rallied, stocks get hit by freight train. The last 5 minutes were a huge shock to the bulls, but, personally, I don’t think the upside is done quite yet. Why not? This is an updated version of the chart I [...]