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Archive for November, 2008
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Intra-Day Update: Ignorenomics

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November 26, 2008

Intra-Day Update: Ignorenomics

UPDATE 9:49am EST: The futures were down quite a bit overnight due to all this:

Durable-Goods Orders in U.S. Fall Twice as Much as Forecast on Sales Slide U.S. Consumer Spending Falls 1%, Most in Seven Years, as Recession Deepens Pimco, Franklin GM Debt May Lose 75% of Face Value in Government Aid Deal Daimler Says Cerberus’s Demands Imperil Sale of Remaining Chrysler Stake U.S. Banks Face $44 Billion of Writedowns in Fourth Quarter, Whitney Says Toyota’s Credit Rating Cut to AA From AAA by Fitch as Auto Sales Decline Half of Commodity Shippers Likely to Breach Loan Conditions, Nordea Says

Guess, none of that matters anymore as we’re still hovering at [...]

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Adapt or Perish

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November 25, 2008

Adapt or Perish

As I mentioned today I’m not going to post any market forecasts for the remainder of the week for the following reasons:

I’m completely worn out and so is Berk. Six months of trading a hyper volatile market that’s also being manipulated almost on a daily basis have been taking their emotional toll. I need a few days where I climb back into my inner shell and reconnect with my evil self. It seems that most of us have mentally adjusted to this crazy market and this has produced a constant uneasiness which I am capable of dealing with for reasonable periods of time. However, I also know when the moment for a mental refill has arrived – and that time has [...]
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Intra-Day Update: Irrational Exuberance

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November 25, 2008

Intra-Day Update: Irrational Exuberance

UPDATE 10:09am EST: Here are the retracement levels for today. TNX is down but the mouth breathers don’t seem to care. Obviously the consumer numbers were cooked, but it’s all one big kabooki theater at this point. Frankly, I’m looking for an exit – should we get one I’ll cash out and walk away until next Monday.

UPDATE 10:31am EST: Curiously, AAPL is behaving today – actually making profits on that one – bless its soul. CF and GS are not so kind unfortunately. Anyway, don’t even try to make sense out of this tape – there’s a battle going on. If are holding puts and are not willing to cut here (like yours [...]

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Step Back!

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November 24, 2008

Step Back!

Twice now, in the past week or so, my wave count has been thrown into disarray.  I did not have a lot of confidence before today, and I have considerably less confidence in the direction now.  Therefore, you are in for a treat as I am going to step back and walk through my thoughts with you.  It might be a little wordy, but I will try to keep it full of charts to help smooth it over.  Enjoy.

I am going to start out on monthly, and work down into hourly charts, and I am going to use $SPX (by popular demand) and the $NDX.  With the $NDX monthly, it is plain and simple.  We have completely broken the long-term trendline, and are bouncing between horizontal resistances.  [...]

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