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Archive for January, 2009
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January 31, 2009

Saturday Comment Cleaner

Great critical discussions going on this weekend – wish I had the time to chime in more but I’m busy coding and back testing several strategies. Unfortunately it seems that the NinjaScript version of the Zero will have to wait until Q2 of this year – their current version does not support certain functionality I require. I know it sucks, but the good news is that I’m learning a lot of C# and NinjaScript and will be able to hit the ground running when NT7 is being released.

I’ll post a forecast tomorrow afternoon – but as a little teaser: The next two weeks are going to be extremely interesting – make or break time 😉

I leave you [...]

 
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January 30, 2009

Danger, Will Robinson!

UPDATE 2:17pm EST: IF we hold the 832 level on the SPX, which is 61.8% fib line I drew yesterday, then I have reason to believe that we might rally up to 920 next week.

Perhaps what Eric is seeing in his XLF analysis is an early warning sign. Again, the close is almost two hours away and if we drop from here we might continue our trajectory downward. But I wanted to give you guys an early warning to at least hedge yourself for the weekend. Maybe sell some puts against the ones you’re holding – or take profits.

UPDATE 3:30pm EST: Looks like CatBird got his wish and the market dropped – good for you mate. The Yen is still wrestling with the R1 [...]

 
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January 30, 2009

Please Vote

UPDATE 11:43am EST: I see only 36 votes on the latest poll and majority picked the joke response. Seriously – has everyone given up on the Zero or what’s going on?

UPDATE 11:50am EST: Gold baby – GOLD!

What you think guys? I’m trying my luck at yet another gold short. I think that this resistance line should be difficult to overcome – if it breaches it’s probably off to the races for the precious metal.

UPDATE 1:12pm EST: Let’s throw up a quick fib:

If 84.1 doesn’t hold then I think 84.85 is in the cards – the dip buyers took their chances at 83. Nothing unusual IMHO – after two days of [...]

10001
 
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January 30, 2009

Cake Or Death?

UPDATE 10:05am EST: So, we got our obligatory fake-the-open whip after which we dropped nicely. Last night I did the right thing by actually simulating taking an earlier ETA yesterday afternoon as the tape touched 846. However, when whipped up I was hit by a surge of recency bias and cut one contract – I could be sitting on double profits now. No excuses – I’m pretty steamed – if you think I’m tough on you guys – I’m a lot tougher on myself.

Anyway, take a look at this:

You know that Yen/ES correlation chart by now. Is this another bear trap or a sign of major weakness. The Yen has been dropping along with the ES futures [...]

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  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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