Great critical discussions going on this weekend – wish I had the time to chime in more but I’m busy coding and back testing several strategies. Unfortunately it seems that the NinjaScript version of the Zero will have to wait until Q2 of this year – their current version does not support certain functionality I require. I know it sucks, but the good news is that I’m learning a lot of C# and NinjaScript and will be able to hit the ground running when NT7 is being released.
I’ll post a forecast tomorrow afternoon – but as a little teaser: The next two weeks are going to be extremely interesting – make or break time 😉
UPDATE 2:17pm EST: IF we hold the 832 level on the SPX, which is 61.8% fib line I drew yesterday, then I have reason to believe that we might rally up to 920 next week.
Perhaps what Eric is seeing in his XLF analysis is an early warning sign. Again, the close is almost two hours away and if we drop from here we might continue our trajectory downward. But I wanted to give you guys an early warning to at least hedge yourself for the weekend. Maybe sell some puts against the ones you’re holding – or take profits.
UPDATE 3:30pm EST: Looks like CatBird got his wish and the market dropped – good for you mate. The Yen is still wrestling with the R1 pivot – it seems that’s the Berlin wall for now – watch towers, moat, and crocodiles included.
We are closer now to the 78.6% mark – still a possibility we rally from here, but the pattern is weakening a bit now. Just FYI – I think being hedged over the weekend is not the worst idea still.
UPDATE Closing Bell: Well, that was an interesting and productive week – only regret I have is not being able to trade most of yesterday. I’ll be posting my forecast on Sunday afternoon – in the meantime take a look this Karl Denninger post – great analysis as usual.
Favorite quote: “Charlie Gasparino was trotted out by CNBC to claim that some sort of deal was imminent”. LMAO
UPDATE 7:02pm EST: Okay, since everyone here seems to confuse Karl’s analysis as mine – NOT SO! People – I was not suggesting to take Karl’s SPX targets at bare value – just wanted you to read his analysis of the Fed’s meddling. In my mind he’s more of an economist than a trader. Obviously I continue to follow the scenarios I outlined for what – 2 months now?
UPDATE 11:43am EST: I see only 36 votes on the latest poll and majority picked the joke response. Seriously – has everyone given up on the Zero or what’s going on?
UPDATE 11:50am EST: Gold baby – GOLD!
What you think guys? I’m trying my luck at yet another gold short. I think that this resistance line should be difficult to overcome – if it breaches it’s probably off to the races for the precious metal.
UPDATE 1:12pm EST: Let’s throw up a quick fib:
If 84.1 doesn’t hold then I think 84.85 is in the cards – the dip buyers took their chances at 83. Nothing unusual IMHO – after two days of dropping like a rock a little relief rally is what we need.
UPDATE 1:42pm EST: Looks like the 23.6% fib was all the bulls could muster. We just made new lows but I’m staying out as the signal is weak. However, we might see some fireworks soon as the Yen just pushed above its R2 resistance pivot (1.1155) and it’s only at its 60% short term stochastic.
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