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Archive for July, 2009
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July 31, 2009

Treasure Hunt

3:04pm EDT: Interesting pattern in the bond futures:

10 year treasury note futures – if we breach that channel I expect some fireworks to the upside.

Similar situation in the 30-year treasury futures. What we might have seen here was an a-b-c correction ending in June and this might be the first leg of a third wave to the upside.

Let the treasury hunt begin!

OMG – is it time again – oh noooo – not again, pleeaasse!!! I’m turning into a pirate… arrrghhh arrrrrhh….

Ay matey – an’ a bot’le of rum!

Devil take thee, ye knavish, bird-brained harp-plucker! Be off, ye [...]

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July 31, 2009

VWAP Reversion Galore

10:30am EDT: Okay, this is getting ridiculous:

Island tops usually resolve once you’re half way inside the gap. The question you need to ask yourself is this: Do you really want to trade this tape? I am still sitting on my August puts but the way we’re ticking I’m starting to have doubts that we’ll see any downside any time soon – very tempted to dump those turds and escape the emotional roller coaster. It’s been over two weeks of this – I am emotionally exhausted and the bears remain MIA.

If they can’t even get this gap closed you got to re-evaluate your odds. When’s the last time we’ve seen a forced [...]

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July 30, 2009

What The Dark Lord Giveth…

… the after hours session taketh away. As usual the futures are already creeping up overnight – is this crap EVER going to stop?

Technically we more than satisfied the criteria for a 5th wave today – especially after the weak EOD action it’s possible that we are finally ready to descend. I need to see that island top taken out asap however. The early morning spike also seems to fit that ‘blow off top’ I had been waiting for. I have heard reports that this was caused by a temporary faulty TRIN signal at a few data providers, but you’d think that an intelligent bot would realize that an instant drop from 100 to 0.8 is not a real [...]

 
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July 30, 2009

Erik’s In The House – And It’s Got A Roof!

What really brightened my day was to see ErikD post again. For you noobs: Erik gained fame here a few months ago with his notorious roof top pattern calls. They just kept crawling out of the woodwork at that time. Didn’t always work out but the odds were definitely on this side in a majority of the cases. Then he suddenly disappeared and I was worried GS had taken him out with their black stealth ninja team. Good to see you back mate – don’t be a stranger

This is his chart, which I’m taking the liberty to post. Well, Erik couldn’t have picked a better time to show up and I really hope (for my own sake) that the roof top pattern works out [...]

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