Island tops usually resolve once you’re half way inside the gap. The question you need to ask yourself is this: Do you really want to trade this tape? I am still sitting on my August puts but the way we’re ticking I’m starting to have doubts that we’ll see any downside any time soon – very tempted to dump those turds and escape the emotional roller coaster. It’s been over two weeks of this – I am emotionally exhausted and the bears remain MIA.
If they can’t even get this gap closed you got to re-evaluate your odds. When’s the last time we’ve seen a forced sell off? I frankly can’t remember – it’s been nothing but up side for two weeks. Should we drop by about now? Abso-diddly-lutely! For about ten days just about – not happening. Yes, eventually we’ll see downside but by then we might be ramped up so sky high or burned so much theta that it won’t matter. However, I have come too far to let this thing go right here – and I will have to follow the example of the samurai in that only in embracing death can you achieve victory.
Anyway, if you’re watching the NQ or the ES – the old VWAP reversion game continues. We are above on both right now, so further upside seems to be in the cards.
10:50am EDT: I just received an email from one intrepid rat, which I would like to share:
I really try to stay out of your business Mole, but Lester significantly brings down the quality of your blog. His problems, typical of most addicts, affect all members of the family. Cleaning
house should include all problems. I’m sure I am not the first to say this, but he has become far more than an amusement, distraction, sad case everyone wants to help. And he won’t get better. Fuck’s sake, how many months has he been given opportunity?
I have been sitting between a rock and hard time with Lester. In some ways I felt bad for him and had high hopes that he would start learning his lessons at some point. But as I (and many others) have pointed out in the past – Lester has a gambling problem and I’m afraid he won’t ever get better. We all told him several times to seek help and it seem that he simply ignores any advice that has been offered and continues to burn through any cash he can get his hands on. I’m very tempted to cut the cord but decided that I’ll leave it up to the community to decide. Please vote in the new poll I just put up – I’ll do whatever the group decides by Monday.
1:00pm EDT: Okay, I’m worn out – not only is this tape a major pain in the ass but on top of this all this happened this morning:
Website crashed and I was spending 30 min with my hosting company getting it running again.
Disqus seems to have problems today as well – what’s with the huge icons?
My SMS gateway suddenly stopped delivering.
NinjaTrader crashed because it couldn’t deliver the emails due to problem #1.
I’m mentally exhausted – let’s just get this day over with – nothing but VWAP reversion anyway…
Oh, and I meant to talk about FX when the damn site went down:
Those are some HUGE candles – I sense a major disturbance in the force. I tell you right now though that the pounding in the Dollar is quite bullish for equities.
… the after hours session taketh away. As usual the futures are already creeping up overnight – is this crap EVER going to stop?
Technically we more than satisfied the criteria for a 5th wave today – especially after the weak EOD action it’s possible that we are finally ready to descend. I need to see that island top taken out asap however. The early morning spike also seems to fit that ‘blow off top’ I had been waiting for. I have heard reports that this was caused by a temporary faulty TRIN signal at a few data providers, but you’d think that an intelligent bot would realize that an instant drop from 100 to 0.8 is not a real signal (at least if I had programmed it). The signal variance is simply too wide and any bot that takes that trade should go back into QA immediately.
However, I wouldn’t put it past the bulltarts to make one last run for the coveted 1000 mark tomorrow – after all, it’s the end of the month and that would look mighty good on their books. The EOD drop today could have been just yet another fake out – it wouldn’t be the first time, right?
None of that however diminishes the fact that this rally is extremely long in the tooth and that cracks are appearing all over the place. Nothing – not even this Fed sponsored spike of death for the bears can keep running up forever. What goes up must come down – sooner or later – let’s hope it’s sooner as I would enjoy a few days of green for a change.
9:23pm EDT: I just went short EUR/USD at 1.4107 – might go to 1.415 but this seems like a good entry.
11:53pm EDT: Would you believe it? Karl ‘No Slave To Fashion’ Denninger actually got a question through to Ben ‘Astronaut Wings’ Bernanke:
Disclaimer: The information provided on this website, while timely, colorful, and accurate, is not to be taken as financial, legal, tax, psychological or any type of advise. The purpose of this website is to track the progressions of human herd psychology as it is reflected through several financial markets. Any commentary on this page, however useful it may be, is used for illustration, and to inspire thought provoking discussion, and not to be taken as specific trade recommendations. We are not endorsing any site or service, nor are we promoting choice examples as real-life trades. If it sounds sarcastic, it probably is and if it offends you, just don't read it. There are tremendous inherent risks in attempting to trade any market using any vehicle, particularly if it is leverage. Please contact your broker to explain all risks involved in the vehicle you will be trading and any questions you may have. Please consult with your own financial advisor before you tempt fate by following our evil speculation.