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Archive for February, 2010
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February 28, 2010

Outta Here

I decided to head out to the Californian wilderness and let the market churn on its own for a little while. Clarity is needed and a little vacation was long overdue. Besides, it’s been raining in the desert all winter and that means spring flowers at Joshua Tree – my camera is locked and loaded.

I should be back next weekend – unless of course some UFO decides to beam me up ­čśë

Cheers,

Mole

 
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February 26, 2010

Epiphany

I know – two posts in one day – almost feels like the good ole’ days (when the bears were banking coin). Anyway, I was looking at my VIX chart and suddenly had an epiphany*:

See, if you want to understand how the market works you need to look behind the scenes – and once you look at that you must try to look at what’s underneath. From there you simply forget everything you’ve seen and flip a coin.

Now seriously – look at the chart above. It’s a left/correlation chart between the SPX and the VIX for the past two years. What I noticed is that the VIX seems to become more ‘volatile’ during trend change [...]

 
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February 26, 2010

The Plot Thickens

The breach of 1,106.42 on the SPX this morning is something I hoped would not happen:

This event shifts things around a little bit. The immediate downside scenario has lost a lot of credibility. It’s possible we are completing a Minuette (b) wave but the prior wave looks like a textbook (a)-(b)-(c), so let’s not kid ourselves. Chances now are we push into 1,127 at which point the bears better put up a fight – if not we might be talking Soylent Green. Not before reeling in a few more bears of course – just to squeeze them a few handles after (how many bear traps have we been enduring now since March 2009?).

On Wednesday I said [...]

 
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February 26, 2010

Living Inside a Broken Clock: Friday, Feb. 26, 2010

by gmak.

I’m off today a feeling a touch maudlin. It must be the weather and cabin fever. It has come to this. The MSM and the FED┬áare blaming the weather for the poor economic data points in the USA. To top it all off, I expect the word “unexpectedly” to be the most frequently used by all these figuratively deaf, dumb, and blind shills for a grasping financial system.

California has passed a bill to delay payments to programs, including schools, to avoid running out of cash. Must be the weather. US jobless claims rise, “unexpectedly”. Curse the weather with tiny impotent raised fists and squeaky voices. Equipment demand slows. Darn rain [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security┬áprocedures we had a … more
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