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Archive for October, 2010
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October 27, 2010

Every Day Is Exactly The Same

Korea is a awesome – like last time, just a lot colder. Still – I don’t think I could have picked a better time to skip town.

This market continues to be simply mind numbing and it’s really good to take a week off. Even if I was around I’d be simply repeating what I have been saying for the past few weeks: Nothing good (or bad) will happen ahead of the midterm election and especially while the G20 meeting is kicking into high gear. Perhaps once some kind of compromise addressing the current pursuit of mutually assured currency destruction has been found and the Dollar is allowed to paint a floor – perhaps then we’ll see a [...]

 
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October 24, 2010

Call Of Duty

No, I’m not talking about the latest iteration of the popular FPS game – although I have to admit that I’m a devoted fan and can’t wait for the release of Black Ops. Rather I got another phone call from Geithner over the weekend – here’s a rough transcript of the conversation:

Mole: Mush-mushi!

Geithner: Mole – this is Tim-ay – how’s it hanging?

Mole: To the left today, Tim – what can I do you for?

Geithner: Well, I think I may need your help again – those G20 talks are not going so well.

Mole: What, did Qishan call you ‘Western Devil’ again?

Geithner: No, but he [...]

 
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October 22, 2010

Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?

If you’ve bothered to drop by here on a regular basis for whatever mysterious reason then you know that I rarely talk about gold. As a matter of fact in the past year I can recall only two occasions when I had a strong opinion about the shiny stuff. The first time was this May after I made a lot of new friends (cough cough) over on the SOH by announcing an imminent drop in precious metals and the other time was a week ago when I told everyone to get out of long positions.

The arrows mark those two occasions. Thing is – I don’t even care about gold – it’s a pain in the ass to trade and everyone I know doing it has been burned (either short [...]

 
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October 21, 2010

I Beg To Differ!

Two quotes I came across recently and which I would like to respond to as they represent the inherent misconceptions that lead many traders to lose their shirt trading the this wood chipper of a market. I will not quote the source as I don’t engage in criticizing fellow analysts – besides I keep hearing the very same statements all over the blogosphere, thus this message goes out to everyone, in particular those with bearish dispositions for the last quarter of 2010:

Exhibit A:

The market is over-believed.

Yes, that is absolutely true. Monday’s Daily Sentiment Index logged in at 93% thus exceeding the April 14 high of 92% as well as the October [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security┬áprocedures we had a … more
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