I don’t have too much to say at this point – except that copper is making me a bit nervous:
As you know those divergences usually end in tears. But as long as HG can remain above 4.2 we should be okay – if it drops through that mark equities may get hit in the process. This is the only fly in the bullish ointment I see right now – but it’s usually one I take very seriously. I also think that we may be due for a little reversal in equities by the end of this week – let’s see how high they can push it until then.
Alright, here is one setup on the FX side that sprung out at me:
FX setup and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
As so many times before in the past two years the inflationists won the game:
Every once in a while I put this chart up for everyone to keep an appropriate perspective. In gold the SPX as it’s trading – in purple the SPX as measured in gold (yes, I should swap those colors next time). In the end what you see in your equities portfolio is nothing but an illusion.
That’s right – I’m hip! I’m with it! Down with the man!
Alright, let me snap my lower back into place as it’s time for my long overdue trend chart roll call:
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
Absolutely no participation today – basically a continuation of a phenomenon we saw on Friday. And clearly evidenced by the Zero Lite:
It really seems like they ramped this thing across SPX 1300, ran a few stops and then walked away to spend a week in the Hamptons. The drop in the last hour was of no surprise to me, when there is zero participation nobody wants to be caught holding the bag. I would not want to be long here right now as it’s very much possible that what we saw last week was nothing but distribution (i.e. a short squeeze and selling into strength). If the longs want to keep their coveted 1300 mark they’ll have to do better than this. Very strange tape…
ZeroFX is showing us nice divergences – I particularly enjoy the EUR/USD side. Maybe I need to slow this thing down a bit as it seems a lot more responsive than the S&P Zero – we shall see and I don’t want to jump to conclusions. The USD/JPY seems harder to swing trade – just look at those candles. Perhaps we’ll settle for a different FX pair in the end – please cast your votes but bear in mind that we want pairs that can be scalped or swing traded. Also – you can pick up to four favorites – not just one.
Geronimo lost one today – no surprise in a completely sideways tape. This also confirms that the boyz are probably not even trying, which gives credence to more bearish tape to come. It’s quite simple – if institutions walked away after SPX 1300 then it could be that retail traders are now the ones holding the bag. And you know how that usually ends up (i.e. retail schmucks taking it up the rear).
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