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Archive for March, 2011
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March 31, 2011

Curious Copper

I don’t have too much to say at this point – except that copper is making me a bit nervous:

As you know those divergences usually end in tears. But as long as HG can remain above 4.2 we should be okay – if it drops through that mark equities may get hit in the process. This is the only fly in the bullish ointment I see right now – but it’s usually one I take very seriously. I also think that we may be due for a little reversal in equities by the end of this week – let’s see how high they can push it until then.

Alright, here is one setup on the FX side that sprung out at me: [amprotect=nonmember] FX setup and commentary [...]

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March 29, 2011

Just An Illusion

As so many times before in the past two years the inflationists won the game:

Every once in a while I put this chart up for everyone to keep an appropriate perspective. In gold the SPX as it’s trading – in purple the SPX as measured in gold (yes, I should swap those colors next time). In the end what you see in your equities portfolio is nothing but an illusion.

That’s right – I’m hip! I’m with it! Down with the man!

Alright, let me snap my lower back into place as it’s time for my long overdue trend chart roll call: [amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder [...]

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March 28, 2011

Gone Fishin’ Monday Wrap Up

Absolutely no participation today – basically a continuation of a phenomenon we saw on Friday. And clearly evidenced by the Zero Lite:

It really seems like they ramped this thing across SPX 1300, ran a few stops and then walked away to spend a week in the Hamptons. The drop in the last hour was of no surprise to me, when there is zero participation nobody wants to be caught holding the bag. I would not want to be long here right now as it’s very much possible that what we saw last week was nothing but distribution (i.e. a short squeeze and selling into strength). If the longs want to keep their coveted 1300 mark they’ll have to do better than this. [...]

 
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March 27, 2011

ZeroFX Genesis

You have been asking – you have been begging – and fortunately a few of you resorted to bribing. I myself of course always wanted a Zero indicator for the FX market but knowing what’s feeding the Zero for the S&P the looming challenges on the coding side appeared to be rather daunting. Not only did I have to figure out a way to produce a similar style market oscillator for currency pairs – I also had to recreate several market metrics that are basically unknown in the Forex world. So knowing all that I realized that my only chance to slay the beast was to wait for an undisturbed stretch of time during which I could sit down and focus on coding for a few [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Confirmation BiasConfirmation Bias
    When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is … more
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