Well here is an update on trades that I have been discussing. The edge I posted last week made 20 Emini points. My swing trades did even better, the ones that are still in play all have stops above break even (1R for that matter). And that NOV/DEC Bean/Corn spread was absolutely spectacular! Depending on your fill, you could make between 3 and 7K on that trade alone by tomorrow’s open (December Corn is down limit right now).
Anyways, one must keep in mind that blind squirrels find nuts, and that includes me… Did I get lucky and buy 1258-1265 3 times? I would say most likely, yes. BUT 99% of what I do is based on DATA, and it WORKS better than trading based on emotion or hope.
Here was the edge that I said to hold 5 days. Sure you could hold another 5 if you like, but heck I was up to 4N long the SP/NQ/IWM, which is just too much. I have taken a lot of that off of the table and placed stops accordingly.
Now how about that NOV/DEC Bean/Corn spread? Well corn is down limit for a day or two and it looks like she is going to at least 2.2x, which is about 5K per unit traded 😉
So tomorrow will be telling as corn can go down another 30-40cents, while beans should be flat (remember I said to short 2 corn for every 1 beans.)
ANYWAY here is some stuff on sentiment:
First, don’t forget the provability of the VIX being in a very narrow and low range on JULY 4th….
Also FWIW there is still 0 $$ in equity mutual funds relative to bonds. This may be more bearish bonds than anything else if you ask me….
Equity fund flows are at their lowest level, and bond’s are at their highest level for some time..
Also for the monthly Rydex Advisor Confidence data…. bears came out of the woods, which is bullish as crap if you ask me.
Also, another monthly survey I follow is the SSICI (state street global sentiment index). It is also very low.
Clearly people are bearish on Global stocks.
Here is an update on the seasonal Puts- Calls flush:
Well we got the flush I was looking for, and this is clearly bullish if you ask me.
Best of “luck” trading, hope some of you at least took 1 of my many trades as of late.
Looks like another Herculean task by the Greek parliament, done behind closed doors despite widespread opposition, lifted equities across the board today. However, instead of stealing the Mares of Diomedes or the apples of the Hesperides it was the Greek tax payer’s turn today who got robbed blind in bright daylight yet again. But we’re used that by now – another day in the Greek saga and another plundering of public coffers across the Western hemisphere. All that to maintain an illusion of financial EU stability, which in reality has become a clusterfuck of epic proportions that even Zeus himself could not make whole again.
Careful now Hercules, there may be a price to pay for all your indiscretions. The Gods are not pleased and neither is the Greek population – just a matter of time until this situation turns very very ugly. You can’t offload a mountain private debt onto a starving public and expect to live to tell the story.
Here’s the wrap up for today which I strongly suggest you watch and learn from as it was a textbook example of a bullish trend day, with two nice divergences (bullish and bearish) thrown in for good measure.
Alright, I’m feeling a lot better – one of the 20 drugs I’m popping must apparently be working. Better living through chemistry.
Counting today the SPX conquered the 1300 mark three times in the past year and I’m sure the longs are thrilled.
Of course that also means that in the past year we have effectively gone nowhere, despite a freefalling Dollar, so if you have simply been holding long you’re not even keeping up with inflation. If ole’ bucky ever gets its legs back things could turn ugly for equities on a dime, which is another supporting argument for my long term outlook presented over the weekend.
Alright, I’m feeling a bit better today after getting about six hours of sleep. Unfortunately I am starting to think that it’s not allergies but that I may have caught a cold somewhere, which is pretty rare for me, especially in June.
But thanks to modern chemistry my head was clear enough to scrape together a few short term charts, so let’s do a quick short term chart roll call:
[amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
Copper must have popped a viagra this morning and that NLBL is getting pretty tiny in the rear mirror. This is looking like a genuine break out to me.
Crude futures are near their NLBL at 95.79 – a close above it will find some resistance at 96.5 but if they can push above that we should be revisiting the 100 mark.
Silver has completely run out of mojo but is holding its NLSL. So it’s possible we walk up to 36.36 but I frankly don’t see much edge here.
Gold may have a bit more to run and if you insist on taking this trade I’d suggest you go with the big brother.
We really didn’t get a nice clean NLBL on the spoos but I think 1312 is pretty much procedural at this point. Whether or not we can push above that remains to be seen but if the momentum remains as it has the chances for a push toward 1330 are decent.
On the fixed income site the 30-year bond future sliced through its NLSL yesterday and did not look back. Seems to me we are going to 122’04, after which I expect a little bounce.
1330 on the spoos would be roughly 1334 on the SPX (depending on how long it’ll take us to get there – the PREM diminishes within its quarter) – but as you can see there is some resistance looming around 1320. If you hold all the way there I would strongly recommend you take partial profits.
That’s it for now – I am actually not completely useless and have been coding my ass off in the past few days. There’s good stuff coming fairly soon which I am sure you all will enjoy. Hope to wrap up a little gift basket for everyone after 4th of July.
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