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Archive for July, 2011
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July 31, 2011

Second Coming Of The Convict

My apologies for being absent for a while. The tape was putting me to sleep, and I had real world business to attend to.

That being said. We have interesting things afoot, despite the off-the-charts event risk in play atm.

Lets look at some evidence, stupidest first.

Now this is a patently stupid pattern, because its so widely anticipated. But strangely enough, it comes as presenting the crux of my argument for where we are at price wise.

We SHOULD go down from here, by Wednesday at the latest we should be falling making new lows… or something is very wrong with the bearish script.

Bottom line, this is the best chance for the bears in [...]

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July 29, 2011

Gray Friday

Equities stared down the abyss this morning and then decided to take a step back as life may yet be worth living. So my condolences to all you perma-bears who yet again expected the end of the world as we know it. Please forgive my sarcastic tone but whenever ZeroHedge and its like switch into fifth gear and panic among retail traders hits a fever pitch, that is when I operate the best. Visions of samurai Mole mercilessly but calmly swinging his katana come to mind.

Look folks – emotions and mental masturbations – please leave all that to the losers. There are a ton of them, which is why their collective voices have a tendency to drown out any uttering of reason [...]

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July 28, 2011

Interesting Observation

I (Volar) posted some relatively bearish evidence yesterday. But sure enough something interesting did pop up.

Not saying something is not developing longer-term, but this and another one for the rats might make you take some VEGA off of the table for at least a day or two…

[amprotect=nonmember] More of Volar’s charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck. [/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

*Very [...]

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July 28, 2011

You Can Run…

Thus far the SPX managed to yet again bounce off that diagonal that’s been providing support for the past two months now. But as the old saying goes: You can run but you can’t hide!

At each step on the way the tapeĀ  offers us three scenarios with – up, down, sideways – simple. Evaluating the odds and inflection points of those three scenarios is key in staying on the right side of the trade. And although the tape looks like a veritable clusterfuck and is bound to confuse or scare the retail schmucks it’s the kind of setup I revel in. Why? Because this gives me plenty of ammunition to define my setups and to evaluate risk and odds of [...]

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