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Archive for August, 2011
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August 31, 2011

Some Stats

Lots of noise out there. Lets keep it simple. I dont mean to post over Scott, but need this to go out today due to the FDOM (first day of month) stats. Please read Scotts post.

I (volar) just got caught up with vacation, and I always re-read my favorite books on vacation. Many traders look for trading answers, I look for understanding. What do I mean by that? Well I dont read books that tell you “how to make money.”  I suggest New Market Wizards- the piece by William Eckhardt is the best written material I know of to this day (next to some of Taleb’s stuff).

I know some of you dont like stats, but if you dont understand true market distribution, well [...]

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August 31, 2011

Ready, FIRE, aim…

We are fast approaching what I believe is to be an *outstanding* intermediate term shorting opportunity.

But not yet. Lets be good rats and do some homework before the day of judgement arises, hey?

So yesterday I said that we should be getting out of longs very soonish because resistance was just ahead… lets see what actually happened.

Now thats not a prediction, just an observation. We have 2 scenarios here….

1) The Market has corrected and this rally will continue on to be a powerful new up-leg 2) The market is in a corrective phase before continuing down.

Obviously the evidence does not support the hypothesis that the uptrend [...]

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August 31, 2011

Volume Pothole

Although the tape looks pretty straightforward on a daily SPX chart the journey intra-day has been filled with traps and tribulations. What comes next may be determined by whether or not we’ll make it across this gaping pothole:

I posted this twice in the comment section yesterday but got very little response. Which surprised me a little as the implications of this chart are rather significant. As Scott already hinted at in his own update – we are in a low volume rut right now and I expect quite a bit of churning before we get resolution here. But let’s assume the current long squeeze does not extend and we are able to bridge the gap here – what [...]

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August 30, 2011

USD/JPY Setup

FX traders rejoice – I’m seeing a very promising setup in the USD/JPY right now.

This one almost got away – fortunately it showed us professional courtesy and waited around long enough to afford us a good entry at a defensible position. [amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck. [/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Technically we appear to be sitting on support here. Note how we have [...]

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