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Archive for October, 2011
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Not …. So ….. Fast!

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October 31, 2011

Not …. So ….. Fast!

Volar is having his hands full as he’s trying to trade without an Internet connection, functioning central heating, and food in his fridge, whilst fighting off alien invaders with a dull steak knife with his right hand tied behind his back. Plus the zombies over at MF Global refused to close out some of his client’s positions last week. Gee – I can only imagine the amount of stress he must be dealing with. We’re rooting for you mate and I hope you rats are sending him any charts he needs at his very whim.

Anyway, the poor fellow managed to free his right thumb and type me a quick email about the FDOM stats he shared with us back in August. Don’t [...]

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S&P E-Mini Short Term Update

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October 31, 2011

S&P E-Mini Short Term Update

The spoos spent much of today correcting in a fairly orderly manner – crap & camp – pretty much textbook. Now, the big question that’s probably in your tortured minds is whether or not the perma-bears were right for a change or if this is just the short term shake out I proposed last weekend.

After falling away from a whole cluster of green we’ve got a brand new NLBL at 1267.5 right now – alas, a first attempt to breach failed. With two more hours left in the session we do have a sufficient time left for the real players to show their cards. If we fall back down I would be mindful of the 1257 mark – a violation of the 100-hour [...]

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Apples And Oranges

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October 30, 2011

Apples And Oranges

Retail has yet again turned completely beartart. Starting Thursday afternoon the usual suspects were once again predicting a major impending correction if not a repeat of the 2008 crash.

Exhibit A: This chart apparently ‘proves’ that we are in a repeat configuration that must resolve to the downside.

Well, I better dust off my time machine and tell those poor schmucks in 82 that the tape is going to drop into oblivion. Almost the identical formation (don’t argue with me – I spent a whopping 30 seconds looking for a similar pattern), and without doubt it will resolve to the downside, yes?

Well, except that it [...]

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Wenches And Mead

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October 28, 2011

Wenches And Mead

Today’s sideways tape was to be expected for several reasons – one being that we now have new long participants in the market. Make no mistake, institutional traders bought at the bottom and sold at the top. In contrast retail traders (a.k.a. ‘new participants’), bearish as ever, were short at the bottom and got long near the top desperately trying to chase a move that is most likely due for a little correction.

In the context of an inside/outside day Scott last week provided great insights on the very same underlying psychology:

“What is happening when a NEW PARTICIPANT has a day where nothing happens? He starts to get nervous! He wanted [...]

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