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Archive for November, 2011
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November 30, 2011

Inflection Point

Since yesterday’s update the dynamics have shifted considerably – and I must say the timing of this could not have been more impeccable. Let’s start with a peek at the after hours AUD/JPY chart as shown on the ZeroFX:

I hate to break it to you but if you hold overnight these days you have to watch the currencies or at least the S&P futures. Since I live in LaLa Land I was of course soundly asleep. We got a Net-Lines buy at 78.16 – followed by a half-ass retest – from there it took the express elevator up to the penthouse. If you caught this entry and the ensuing spike: You lucky bastard! ūüėČ

The spoos show us that the [...]

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November 29, 2011

Humpty Dumpty

As the tape is not giving us much to hang our hats on let me tell you a little story which in my not so humble opinion rather ominously describes the situation at hand.

I maintain that the bulls are not simply getting out of the gate. For months all we’ve seen are two steps forward followed by three strides back. That may have been permissible during the Aug/Sep/Oct churn but just like German humor it’s no laughing matter when it continues during what is seasonally a¬†traditionally¬†bullish period.

Just look at this chart – or even better, if you have a six year old show it to him/her and then ask the spoiled little bloodsucker where that [...]

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November 28, 2011

Ramp & Camp Monday

I hope you all had an enjoyable and relaxing Thanksgiving. Those long holiday weekends are always a stark reminder that I am in dire need of a vacation – after about the third or fourth day I am just starting to mentally relax! I am definitely looking forward to our Christmas break and another opportunity to recharge those old batteries. It’s been a tumultuous year – not a bad one for us I can proudly say – but definitely an exhausting one. But heck – let’s be honest for a moment – once all this drama has played itself out, maybe a few years from now – aren’t we all going to bored as hell trading ‘normal’ tape again? [...]

 
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November 25, 2011

Post Turkey Day Wrap Up

As expected today’s session brought us nothing but a tryptophan laced serving of whipsaw. Rather typical for those half trading days they often wedge between a long holiday weekend. Frankly, I don’t know why they bother – it must be that American obsession with productivity, which IMNSHO turns out to be a bit counter productive. I mean seriously – nobody in their right mind would touch holiday sucker trapping tape with a ten foot tentacle. Anyway, despite Thanksgiving festivities our FX setups marched on proudly and it’s time to finally pull the plug in whatever positions you may have held on to.

Cable – almost threw us off the off [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security¬†procedures we had a … more
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