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Archive for December, 2011
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December 30, 2011

Happy New Doomsyear!

As expected we end 2011 on a bonafide doji. All that remains now is to thank you all for a pretty amazing year – I could not have it done without you and your support. We have truly come a long way in the past twelve months. While almost everyone else has been taken to the woodshed, we stainless steel rats had a lot of fun, a lot of laughs, and most importantly we banked some mighty coin. And if you thought 2011 was monkey ass crazy then you ain’t seen nothin’ yet…

Well, I for one intend to be the last man standing. For real – the one clear bull market I see around the corner is in the doomsday prediction racket. So knock yourself out and [...]

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December 29, 2011

2011 Doji

It’s pretty much official at this point. Despite having strong seasonal winds in their backs the bulls were unable to stage a proper Santa Rally and got stuck at the diagonal resistance line as shown on the monthly:

Unless we rally like gangbusters tomorrow’s session will end a very volatile year nearly at zero. We started the year at SPX 1257.62 and are currently trading around 1263 – wow, that’s almost four handles in twelve months! Smashing baby, yeah!

In other words we are painting an annual doji, and if you consider inflation then you actually lost money holding it in US Dollar dominated cash or treasuries. Of course that is not what [...]

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December 28, 2011

Recency Bias

Among all common cognitive biases my biggest battle as a trader was (and remains to be) the one against recency bias. You will find a great example of just that in Curtis Faith’s book ‘The Way of the Turtle’: Faith finally relents to a friend, who begs him to reveal the secrets of his highly successful turtle trading system. However when things are starting to get dicey his friend quickly decides to ignore the system following a series of losses:

Around February 1999 I (Faith) asked him how he was doing in cocoa since I had noticed that there was a great downward trend. He told me that he did not take the trade because he had lost so much trading cocoa and thought that the [...]

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December 27, 2011

Easy Now!

Welcome back to the jungle! Courtesy of diminished EOY volume I’m seeing some signs of possible monkey business today and have a sneaking suspicion some longs are being led into a short term trap:

Well, well – what do we have here? Mr. ViX up by almost 5.5% while the SPX is up for the day (thus far)?

Un peu suspecte, n’est ce pas? Especially when copper is pointing DOWN for the day. So this is what I think is going to happen…

[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. [...]

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1742Strong muscular boxer in red boxing gloves. A man in a boxing stand.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
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    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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