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Archive for December, 2011
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Merry Christmas!

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December 23, 2011

Merry Christmas!

Right in time for Christmas – it’s on! No matter which way you count it – another trend day brought us right to the neckline of that inverse H&S developing on the S&P 500:

What you can usually can expect is a breach up followed by a fake out drop to the downside to shake out some weak hands. And once some battered retail schmucks have been taken to the cleaners we then may get resolution to the upside. I’ll show you an example of just that further blow. Now, per the rules – if this thing makes it all the way to target then it should get us to 1360 (i.e. current reading plus the 100 handle distance from the head of the [...]

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Do You Believe In Santa (part Deux)

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December 22, 2011

Do You Believe In Santa (part Deux)

Hey its Volar and it is good to get my Xmax gift from MF Global. So it is now business time again.

Speaking of business time- great link here. A good one.

Anyways here are some musings.

First, here is the VIX/VXV ratio. I have multiple posts on this in the past that talk about this time spread in IV.

Talk about text book… option traders believe in Santa and they get the gifts financed from retail traders. Retail traders get Vaseline from Santa and the “boyz.”

Speaking of retail- WTF- they just do not give up!

Now back to seasonality. Did any of you look at my last post? It has timed the last 5 months very [...]

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Butter In Hell Wrap Up Day

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December 22, 2011

Butter In Hell Wrap Up Day

This TrendDay alert we put up a few weeks ago is starting to pay off in spates. This morning a 10:15am EST the subs received the following email:

NYSE TICK closed 83.07% above its zero mark. MODERATE probability of an Up Trend Day! Sample size: 2699 1-Tick bars.

Now moderate ain’t high but it’s better than a kick in the shin, especially during the pre X-Mas volume drought. So let’s see what happened on the Zero indicator front, in particular if the signal backed up the concept of an up trend day:

Spot on! As our resident Aussie convict may say – despite an early shake out attempt the tape resolved exactly how both our alert and the [...]

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There Be No Butter In Hell!

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December 22, 2011

There Be No Butter In Hell!

If you’re a sub then you know today we received moderates odds of a trend day. I found that quite interesting as we were mostly pushing sideways at the time the trend alert was triggered at 10:15am EST. Accordingly we are now reaching a key level on the spoos, so this should be interesting:

1244 is our current NLBL and as I’m typing this we are correcting a bit near 1247. Also worth noting is that VWAP on the Zero is pinned to 1244.9 right now so this should provide at least some short term support. Nevertheless that inverse H&S is looking well formed at this point and 1260 roughly represents our neckline.

The weekly SPX chart shows us a [...]

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