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Archive for January, 2012
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Running Like A Hare

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January 31, 2012

Running Like A Hare

The tape that is – at least for the past few weeks. Gaps at the open galore followed by systematic squeezes to the down or upside – it’s a pretty nasty January we’ve had ourselves here. Which is kind of strange as on a daily basis things are looking a lot more tranquil. Once you zoom out a bit you get an idea what I’m talking about:

It’s been a nice 120 degrees hill climb since mid December. When I see intra-day noise coupled with long term tranquility I usually take notice. But what really puzzled me as of late was the small signal range on the hourly Zero and the Zero Lite. Which is reflected on the TOS version of my hourly Zero [...]

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Nice Little Bear Squeeze

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January 30, 2012

Nice Little Bear Squeeze

Well, that was a nice little bear squeeze we got ourselves today – almost textbook I may add, featuring the early morning wipeout followed by a systematic run higher. If you paid attention to the charts I posted last week then this morning’s support zone should have come to no surprise to you:

Those two Net-Line Sell Levels (NLSLs) at the psychologically important 1300 mark proved too much to overcome, which frankly was not a big surprise to me. There is simply no confidence in the tape – one way or the other! For the entire month of January I have maybe seen one or two quick spikes beyond the Zero’s +/- 1.0 signal range. A twenty handle drop at [...]

3313
 

Mole’s Weekend Musings

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January 29, 2012

Mole’s Weekend Musings

After seeing two excellent posts from both Fearless and Scott (thank you very much) I really do not have too much of value to add this weekend. The medium and long term perspectives on equities, gold, silver, the Dollar, etc. as reported earlier in the week stand and I’m not going to regurgitate the same material just so produce a post. Instead we’re going to do something a bit different today. Volar responded to Fearless’ post with some very good material on volatility and fat/thin tail distribution. Reading it confirmed some of my own theories related to the cyclical nature of the tape which you may find valuable. So what I’m going to do is to quote [...]

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Did You Get Out Of Cocoa?

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January 27, 2012

Did You Get Out Of Cocoa?

A lot of people are very confused right now and who could blame them? All the while the tape has been dropping in the past few days we received a moderate UP trend day yesterday morning and low UP trend day alert today. A bit of a head scratcher and things seem a bit out of whack. At the same time the Zero shows sign of a systematic long squeeze – the reason I’m suggesting that is the velocity of the current stair step pattern to the downside. It simply feels unnatural – after extremely bullish sentiment you usually get a reset or wipeout of some kind. Downside corrections move at least twice as fast as advances due to raging emotions involved. You don’t just [...]

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