So here is a random stat that I came upon today.

*** update added VIX sell signal stats way below***

So the first quant math is how many times has the market not made a new low? Or how many times has the market closed higher than the previous day’s low consecutively. So how many times has the market not closed below the previous day’s low 19 times?

The stats do not have much of an edge (bullish or bearish)- I just though it was interesting that we got to 19 times. That being said, one way to interpret this data is that the market (since 1990) has only gotten to 22 consecutive non-lower closes 3 times. Or in English we are dealing with very [...]

Today’s a fine opportunity to bring back an old Evil Speculator tradition – of the heavy metal kind, that is:

Rammstein at its finest, baby! In case you care, ‘wohin gehst Du’ translates as ‘where are you going’ in English – a question we stainless steel rats have in our mind on an ongoing basis when it comes to assessing the tape. Now before we get to the ‘real’ heavy metals we must first visit the core catalyst of their continuous advance, which of course is the U.S. Dollar:

Remember when I told you guys to get out of ole’ bucky a few weeks back? It’s been a sea of red since – so [...]

Congratulations, we are all Japanese now. Welcome to eternal ZIRP and an economy trapped in the doldrums for about a decade, if not longer. Thanks a bunch Banana Ben! Not surprisingly equities have been on a rampage since today’s FOMC announcement.

Things are getting complicated again as that VIX sell signal is pretty much shot to hell now. My own personal rule (it’s not official) for disqualification is either a push beyond the recent high on the SPX or a drop below the lower BB on the VIX. We got the former just now and although it’s still possible we see a little correction the odds of the signal resolving have now diminished [...]

It never fails – on the few occasions I leave town for a few days something really interesting happens – this time was no different. Boy, where do I begin? It all unfolded Friday evening when the VIX closed outside its 2.0 Bollinger:

And that of course put a potential VIX sell signal (relative to equities) onto our watch list. In case you are a noob – here are the rules again:

For a VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events: