Back To Business

That’s it – I don’t want to hear another word about hurricanes, Halloween, or presidential elections. Quite frankly I’ve had more than my fill at this point and the sooner we get back to business the better. Of course right after Halloween we will have to put up with all that X-Mas misery. How damn jolly can you people get every year? And stop the singing already – it’s like cryptonite! Anyway, we’ve got coin to bank – plenty of of setups out there if you pay attention:

Silver right at a NLBL which conveniently expires today. It’s been keeping a low profile for the past week avoiding any contact. Meanwhile on the hourly we are touching resistance but it’s looking strong. I would prefer a pass by the NLBL tomorrow which would lead us higher.

Copper – here’s the daily and the weekly as we are touching support on both. Great long setup right now – a failure this Friday may lead us lower.

Bonds – the 30-year is pretending to look busy. I see a great setup here at the 100-day SMA. The 25 has been nicely cleared and this should be the last hurdle before a bust higher. If it fails (i.e. we close below today or drop back below in the next two days) then I want to be short here.

More where that came from Рplease join me in my hurricane proof trading lair:
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The 10-year has been bouncing against the 100-day for months now. Then it dropped and found some support at the lower BB. Now we are back at the 25-day SMA and if we hold here then I think we are good for a push back to the 100. What happens there should be extremely interesting – assuming we get there of course.

Corn at resistance – it’s kind of wedged in here so I’m very curious how this resolves. If you have been trading along for a while then you still ought to be long at this point. This should be our final test – if it can’t overcome this NLBL then I would probably recommend letting this one go.

USD/CAD – excellent long setup here – the breach of par would be my trigger.

NZD/USD breaching resistance – it kind of snug by the NLBL and it’s now pushing above the SMA. Good long with a stop below the SMA.

Cable back at the diagonal resistance line on the daily. It’s also pushing into some overhead resistance on the hourly. I want to be cautiously long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA. If you want to be short then put your stop a handle or two above that diagonal.

EUR/USD – slowly plotting support but it won’t put a fast one on the Mole – no sirree. I see some hourly support now as well and thus think we do have a defensible long here. Stop below the diagonal but I have to concede that I would have preferred it yesterday morning. Damn that storm season…

CAD/JPY right at hourly resistance plus daily resistance. Short right now but it’s possible we’ll be pushing higher, I would have little compunction about flipping if we do.

AUD/USD also tickling its NLBL which expires tomorrow. It’s looking strong so I want to be long here. If we fail then our next support is the 25-day, thus I would not want to be short.



Back From Whence We Came

A quick update on the E-Mini. This morning I was lamenting that we had missed that 100-hour breach. Then I stepped out for the gym for two hours and just came back to see this:

Most interesting – we just dipped below. Also note that the daily NLBL seems to be holding thus far. It’s a bit early to jump to conclusions here but I wanted to make sure everyone is at point. It’s permissible to be short here with a stop above the 100-hour, which is doing us a favor by moving sideways.

However, I don’t think the fat lady has sung just yet. The downside range on today’s Zero Lite is very minimal. A -1.0 signal would be more promising, -2.0 or higher would be ideal. The -0.4 spikes down here speak of minimal participation while everyone is kicking the tires of the U.S. markets.

The inflection point on the hourly is valid – but I would monitor it regularly as a surprise spike would not be uncharacteristic based on prior precedence.


Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

To start things off here’s a quick reminder of where we left off last week. Unless your house was flushed down the Atlantic you probably recall that we were waiting for a breach of the 100-hour SMA. We had it all figured out, didn’t we? A VIX buy signal had finally materialized and the plan was to get positioned as soon as the E-Mini would pop its head above that SMA. And then hurricane Sandy had to literally blow our plans out of the window. How dare mother nature to interfere with our carefully crafted schemes?

Well, the difference at this point are ten handles as we are scraping the upper boundary of the 100-hour Bollinger. And that apparently is the prevalent theme across the board this morning. The big question here is – what happens next? On the daily side we are sitting right at a NLBL. I didn’t want to wait until later this evening to draw your attention to this rather important inflection point. It’s been a while since we even touched one. If nothing else today ought to be interesting as we lost two trading sessions this week, making today the last opportunity to ‘paint the month’ if you will.

Since many of you guys have been through a lot I’m going to make this a freebie. But please keep it quiet – after all I have a bad reputation to live up to.

Here’s only the hourly panel – I wanted to highlight the fact that the 100-hour BB has now shrunk to a mere 20 handles.

AUD/USD – sitting on a NLSL plus its 25-hour SMA. It’s been slowly coiling up over the past few days and I expect some resolution here and that soon. So watch the support level as it should lead to acceleration.

EUR/AUD – right at the top of my 100-hour BB. It’s looking strong but I think we’ll face a bit of ST resistance here.

EUR/USD – much to my chagrin (I live in Spain now) running higher in a jiffy. Also touching the upper BB and that could mean some upside resistance.

Crude seems to be getting the Monty Python treatment and it’s hourly BBs have been squeezed to the max. This already started before Sandy blew our collective candles out and the past two futures sessions are a continuation of the ongoing sideways trend. At some point (perhaps after the election – ahem) I expect things to start picking up here. So keep an eye on this – I will post an update as soon as I see movement on the daily.

The dollar is asking for more punishment – please sir, can I have another? At the bottom of the hourly BB stack now but it’s not looking good.

Gold – 14 handle BB range – this is getting ridiculous. Perhaps it’s the quiet before the storm. Oh wait – too late…

Silver looking a bit more animated. At the top of its hourly range and looking for a clue as to what to do next.

Soybeans at possible support. We also have a NLBL and the 100-hour waiting above. Let’s see what happens here as it’s only a five handle range before we should see some sort of decision of what happens next.

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