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Archive for March, 2014
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Technical Limbo

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March 31, 2014

Technical Limbo

I think at this point the level of exhaustion among market participants is reaching that of systemic adrenal fatigue. It certainly has been affecting the comment section and I can’t really blame you guys. Although there are setups on the Forex and futures front things have been turning a bit choppy there as well. Equities have been stuck in the same trading range since mid February with no resolution in sight. The odds of this turning into a sideways correction however are increasing by the day. Five years and counting and the bears still are incapable of dropping the spoos by more than 30 or 40 handles. I do not have any directional bias but a thorough correction would be [...]

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Wild Monday Morning Briefing

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March 31, 2014

Wild Monday Morning Briefing

It’s already been a rough early session today on the Forex front  as the Eurostat consumer price index for March threw a good monkey wrench in any EUR related pairs. And on the U.S. side at 9:55am EDT we’ve got  Yellen scheduled again – seriously, is she on every single week now? Haven’t we suffered enough?

Anyway, I recommend you watch your six an hour after the open as I expect a hefty helping of volatility on the equities side. A few hours later it’s Carney’s turn – so cover any GBP pairs beforehand. For your convenience I have posted a guide to negotiating today’s market minefield above.

We actually [...]

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Updated CrazyIvan Results

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March 30, 2014

Updated CrazyIvan Results

I just returned from Alicante which I found to be one of the more insignificant towns I have visited here in Spain – suffice to say that I probably won’t be back. Due to another rain storm I found some time to update the CrazyIvan stats which are copied below:

Since the last update we had a little swing back down which is very interesting as Scott recommended that I would turn it off for a week after we pushed near the 50R point (i.e. the second highest peak on this chart). I however declined and would do so again (even in hindsight) as I’m going hardcore Ivan with this system, which means letting it run at all times assuming that our volatility [...]

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Market Weather Basics

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March 28, 2014

Market Weather Basics

In the past few years I have spent quite a bit of effort categorizing distinct market phases as they clearly can affect both discretionary as well as automated system trading. I often also refer to it as ‘market weather’ and my first treatise on the subject was two years ago in a pertinent post. It mostly focuses on the psychological aspects of how market gyrations affect trading behavior and distorts perceptions among market participants. In combination with a trader’s respective cognitive biases various market conditions will affect one’s daily activities. Whereas a swing trader may be perfectly happy and successful playing the swings in a volatile sideways [...]

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