Most market participants suffer from chronic recency bias in that they weigh recent data or experience more than earlier data or experience. In particular retail traders more often than not expect more of the same, which actually is correct most of the time. Except for when it matters the most. Come again?
If you have come here for a while then you have seen me use the word ‘inflection point’ on various occasions. I use that term rather deliberately as it succinctly expresses a moment in time in which an equilibrium between potential outcomes can be shifted rapidly by comparatively small movements in price. Say again?
Back in my wave wanking days [...]
In a column in the Financial Times at the start of the week, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, whom the Obama Administration passed over to appoint Yellen, argued that it would be folly for the Fed to raise rates. Damn it – this is going to be a boring one again – alright you can do this – this is important, pull yourself together…. Now Ray Dalio, the manager of one of the world’s biggest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, has weighed in on the debate… what the fuck does he know… arguing that the Fed, rather than tightening policy (that is, raising rates), might well end up easing instead—purchasing bonds and pumping money into the [...]
It’s pretty much a binary situation – either you pulled the trigger yesterday when the getting was good or you were debating the end of life as we know it over at ZeroEdge or some other perma-bear watering hole. There is a small crew here who over the years has worked hard to gain membership to the exclusive 1% club. To earn the privilege to walk among men (and women) who are able to print coin in any market environment. Many have tried and most have failed – and we rats would not have it any other way.
Frankly I really don’t care what anyone else thinks. This was brilliantly timed and executed. If you missed the mark then you only have yourself [...]
Enjoy a re-run of today’s E-Mini session exhibiting participation as measured by our Zero indicator. On the left side is the hourly panel and the Zero Lite runs on the right via the 5-min panel. Swing traders and scalpers are encouraged to watch the 5-min panel for early clues – in particular price/signal divergences and lack of participation as expressed by a flat signal. If you like what you see then may want to watch some earlier ones – you will find plenty of examples of what to look out for and how to avoid common traps when trading the E-Mini. Plus you may enjoy the tunes 😉
I don’t think this one requires a lot of commentary. If you missed the [...]