I hope you enjoyed a few days off – I certainly did and although I would love to boast that I spent my time productively I mostly wound up catching up with a few shows and training with my guys. Even Mole the machine needs to recharge his batteries every once in a while. However there’s only so much idle time I can tolerate and I intend to hit the ground running here as we are now heading into one of the most exciting periods of the year. So snap out of your tryptophan induced slumbers and let’s get to work!

On the equities side we are holding strong and you should move your stop below the 25-day SMA around 2077. We are now facing medium term overhead [...]

Apparently the Thanksgiving correction I anticipated quickly devolved into an obligatory shake out followed by a bounce. Obviously you won’t hear me complain as I’m still holding my long positions since ES 2013.75. Given that participation is bound to dry up quickly after lunch today I suggest you limit your exposure and instead attend to planning your respective holiday weekends.

After seven consecutive years of meager holiday dinners for the few surviving bears I wonder how long the current stew of QE madness is going to keep us treading in place. Most likely we will finish this year near where we started it. Last December we closed the yearly candle at [...]

Let me precede this post by openly stating that in general there is no such thing as making a ‘great call’. Well there is and then again there isn’t. Now that I sufficiently confused the heck out of you let me try to explain. You may recall some of my past write-ups on volatility, market cycles, as well as knowing when to be active and when to be sit on your hands. A very simple way of summarizing all of the above is that there are periods I would refer to as ‘easy time’ followed by the more mind numbing ones which test not only your patience and testicular fortitude but also your ability to stick with your script.

Assuming a solid understanding [...]

As you may recall I am still long the spoos, having trailed the current advance since 2013.75. Last week I proposed that we may be heading into yet another pre-X-Mas correction as the timing has us a little early in the season. Given what I’m seeing this morning we are literally sitting at the knife’s edge and that’s a great opportunity for a little cheap hedge:

Since I want to hang on to my ES long position I decided to hedge myself via the NQ, which shows us very nice context. Quite frankly I have no directional bias here yet – we could easily paint new highs today. But given the ST context this is a very effective hedge given the current [...]