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Mad Monday Morning Briefing
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Mad Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleOctober 20, 2014

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-10-20_spoos_briefing

Put your game faces on folks, judging by this morning’s activity it looks like we’re going to have a busy week. Equites are now near the make or break point. Short term this is an awesome opportunity to be long with very little risk. Simply put your stop below the 100-hour SMA. If we drop through it we may bounce back bear trap style but the bullish case would be extremely vulnerable. We don’t have a crystal ball but the odds are good here. Even worth being stopped out once or twice – so keep your position size small and build it it up as you go.

In case you wonder – yes, being short below the 100-hour is encouraged if we drop below it. But there will be attempts to reconquer it and unless your stop is above 1890 odds are you will be swept. No exact science – it depends on your trading style. But this is a major inflection point that will determine the direction for the coming weeks.

2014-10-20_NQ_briefing

Similar view on the NQ but not as dynamic – the 100-hour is now pushing sideways which means it can serve as the line of scrimmage to kick this thing higher. If it fails the bulls will find themselves in a world of hurt.

2014-10-20_EURUSD_briefing

Oh how much I wish this setup would fail but much to my chagrin it’s looking very very good. So I’m long here with a stop below the now rising 100-hour.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – secret decoder ring required:

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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Where’s everyone? Is this thing on?

  • Ronebadger

    Present…sitting on hands right now.

  • Skynard

    Short again, /ES 1882.25. /NQ 3820.25

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Present.
    standing by my Friday plan.

    looks like 21st could actually be an interim high, if this long thing persists.

    http://s10.postimg.org/grc1yk4l5/OCT_20.png

    -GG

  • newbfxtrader

    Aright now get to 180 like a good boy…

  • newbfxtrader

    Hmm we could get to 1920 before it falls apart…

  • Skynard

    Bears game here Bro.

  • newbfxtrader

    Most likely we are headed much lower but not sure its from this level. Lots of capitulation last week. Especially bonds.

  • Skynard

    Big move a coming, check out DJI, on the line for the bulls:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High yield bonds have mostly stabilized.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p83765206874

    I didn’t know you had a crystal ball!
    dude, start your own blog. (people need to know)
    http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/photos/uncategorized/2007/11/08/dell_dude.jpg

    😉

  • Skynard

    Bear flag 5 min, ZL not showing the love:)

  • ridingwaves

    VIX under 20 should throw caution into short positions…ramp possibility not out of the cards

  • Skynard

    Pump and dump,just ran the stops w/ the spike.

  • ridingwaves

    maybe late wednesday or thursday would be better to take S position…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wow, dead in here – guess I’ll be taking the evening off then…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    have a great time! (waves)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    according to my broken watch, should be about time for “something”.

    http://s14.postimg.org/83qy9rgdt/make_or_break.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Disappointed – most of you guys show up AFTER the big moves, it’s just silly. I have been preaching the timing of striking the iron when things come into focus for years now. It simply was inexcusable to miss out this morning’s entry opportunity. No guarantee it’ll continue higher of course BUT that’s simply an inflection point one HAS to take.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    have you considered the rats are growing up? quiet doesn’t always mean complacent.
    I’m sure they have (or follow) brutal systems in place making, or waiting – for coin.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – no, not really. When people trade setups I present here they usually talk about them. No activity means just that.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ah – I get it – Monday is Thanksgiving – people are probably taking part of this week off.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    usually.

    perhaps they are out shopping for Diwali?
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    uh, US Thanksgiving is in November. Which country are you talking about?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Divergence right now – they’ll show us their cards EOS. If you got positioned in the morning would hold here and not get drawn into futzing around.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    1897.47 – there it is.

  • mugabe

    short term beginning to look nice for the bulls. pushing at resistance, possible inverted H and S, ma beginning to flatten out:

    http://scharts.co/1tFkAr7

  • captainboom

    Don’t take it personal Mole. I’m still not trading due to having a ton of personal stuff I’m finishing up before the snow flies, and I had some post high-season work come in on top of that. I try like hell to keep up with reading your posts and extract what value I can from the comments, which is a lot. One of the things I’ve learned is to not trade unless I’m on top of my game, with a sufficiently tested system, so I sit on my hands.

    I have been paper trading Thor, and catching the alerts that don’t happen in the middle of my night. I think of it as a test to see if the daily time frame will work well for me. So far, I think it will.

    If you look back for the past couple of weeks, the comment count has been fairly high. My counsel is to not worry about it, for what it’s worth…

  • strider

    I grabbed some of the gbpjpy trade.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • tradingmom

    Zero flatline plus rising wedge on hourly have me looking for a sell off, but fearing the squeeze.

  • Ronebadger

    OK, so it’s one of THOSE days…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    was that a sexist remark?
    I’ll ban hammer you so fast it’ll make Sky’s head spin.
    (just kidding)

  • Ronebadger

    oops…not what I meant…but… LOL

  • tradingmom

    vix in triangle on the 30 min chart

  • mugabe

    possible blow-off top

  • Ronebadger

    MODERATOR!!! What’s he talking about?!?!?!?!?!

  • newbfxtrader

    Well not too bullish but positive nonetheless. Wait for a bearish zero. Maybe 1920 or so is what I can see.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I admire the whale, whomever they are.

    I AM the One who Knocks.
    [S&P 100]
    http://s8.postimg.org/9erek02x1/15_year.png

  • newbfxtrader

    Below support now. Next stop 17….

  • Scott Phillips

    Be very careful doing traditional technical analysis on the VIX. VIX is a mathematical abstraction involving implied volatility of options. There is absolutely NO BASIS for believing it will obey trendlines, support or resistance, other things which work quite well on regular charts.

  • newbfxtrader

    Nobodys taking my lumber shorts….

  • newbfxtrader

    Lots of nothing below….

  • newbfxtrader

    Since I read that book you posted now I dont know if anything works…

  • ridingwaves

    http://s28.postimg.org/3yg1o5vnx/vix_back_to_here.jpg

    think it finds this line in next 2 days. 17-17.30..taking long vix position in that range

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    1904.

    missed it by that much.

    http://gamesetwatch.com/penny-pinching.jpg

  • TexasRube

    Took the ES trade this morning. Couldn’t blog in since had to work. Thanks, very happy right now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Damn it – totally forgot – I’m doing it now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m not worried about comments in general. What matters is that you ALL missed a brilliant opportunity.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s exotic so don’t be too surprised. But this morning’s equity setup was tantamount to coming home and finding Claudia Schiffer naked in your bedroom.

  • TexasRube

    Is that Claudia’s brother???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    she’s 44. I suppose it IS possible.

  • Scott Phillips

    A huge amount of things in TA is inherited from early days stuff, which nobody tested.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yum!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehe – you caught that? Already fixed it..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh, and YOU would push her out of bed, right….

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah I guess. I like the coffee short. So far so good. Failed breakout…

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. I am annoyed I wasted years trying to learn that. Anyways since I turned everything off my trading is much better. Like my coffee short?

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_CD239JI_s

    Dunno whats shes saying but dont care…

  • Round we go

    Where’s frearless? I miss his mid/long term charts.

    Dr. Copper below $3 showing sign of global contraction. If reversion to mean long term looking at $1.50. It been a sleep the last two years but looks like it is decision time in the weely time frame.

    Nice macro charts. http://www.macrotrends.net/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m testing EVERYTHING myself. Many many prior assumptions have been buried this year.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he moved on.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=40233#comment-1224243804

    (scroll down a little for his diatribe)

    ps. If i’m picking a scab, delete this info. I however, think it’s healed by now.

  • Scott Phillips

    Thanks for posting :) FYI Fearless was a good trader with a good method (produced below) but his long term predictions were as baseless as everyone’s long term predictions. He got some right and some wrong, the right very right and the wrong very wrong. Think about it carefully with an analytic mind. Things can change. A big down day today would totally change the picture. At inflection points where the odds are 50/50 the whole picture is changed depending on the outcome. How many inflection points (which is what most of us are trading) do we have in a year? 50? At least that. How many different outcomes could happen? Virtually infinite. So logically we are balancing two factors

    1) There is more noise:signal ratio the smaller the timeframe
    2) The longer the timeframe the more things can change.

    You don’t have to take my word for it. Take any pattern based setup you know works on daily and test it on monthly and weekly setups. See what you find :)

    Also when he claimed to double his account in 5 days I had to call bullshit, as did Mole. He was posting every day here and neglected to mention he was putting 100% of his account in OTM options… come on! What he claimed to do was inconsistent with good trading, a good trader would never do those things. Of course he could have just posted his real world trading statements (like I do) that would have settled the argument 😉

    From Fearless back in the day….. His method has very strong similarities to Thor

    As per your request I am sharing a few things about the trend-trading methods I use that have helped my account to stay in the green. I only really started following my rules to the letters this year. In 2007 – 2009, I was using a timing based method to time the turning points, which allowed me to get out right before Lehman collapse and time my biggest short yet right before October 6 2008 crash, and also catching the February 10 2009 crash. Those are history now and the good time will not return for at least another year, so I’ve had to re-learn the best tools.

    When an average trader (and most E-Wavers I know) looks at an incredibly bullish/bearish chart, he/she immediately starts to pick the potential tops/bottoms to counter-trend trade it. DON’T DO THAT. Let’s be honest here, who has looked at the Ford (NYSE:F) chart and tried to short the heck out of it? Who has looked at the BIDU chart and tried to pick tops? Who has shorted AAPL a hundred times since March 2009? When you look at a chart and the moving averages are all aligned and pointing in one direction, the easiest way to make money is in the same direction. What I use are pretty standard set of moving averages – the 5, 20, 50, and 200. I have a set of custom MAs that help me better track them, but essentially they do the same things.

    Before I go further with my methods, let’s define one term – Acceleration line – the 5 day moving average of (open, high, low, close).

    A strong trend presents itself when the 200, 50, and 20 period MAs all point in the same direction. If the acceleration line points in the same direction, the trade is easy – buy on a weak (low volume) pullback to the acceleration line and close positions at the next resistance/support or hold until a confirmed two bar break of the acceleration line.

    A valid two bar break means an above-average volume break of the resistance/support, followed by a higher volume bar break of the same resistance/support and closing below (or above for bullish reversal) the low (or high for bullish reversal) of the first bar, provided that the bar does not close more than 47.2% off the lows/highs. A failed back-test means a low volume third bar (preferrably lower volume than the first breakout bar) whose high (or low for bullish reversal) does not exceed the high (or low) of the second breakout bar. Once all these conditions have been met, there is a high probability that the next bar will be a continuation in the direction of the first two bars until the next major support/resistance is met. This setup is exactly what tipped me off about Tuesday’s sell-off and my monster performance (two bar break of the SPX acceleration line followed by a weak back-test on Monday).

    In a strong trend, the first major pullback to the 20 period MA is to be bought/sold in the direction of the major trend. For example, those who bought XOM on Tuesday or yesterday near its 20 day SMA are doing really well now. I will certainly not look (or short and hope) for a break of the 20 day SMA on Ford; I would rather buy it at its 20 day SMA now. Remember – hope is not a valid setup. (Prechter has been ‘hoping’ for P3 for 17 goddamn months!)

    Once you have a confirmed break of the 20 day SMA, close all intermediate term positions in the primary trend and trade with the new short term trend, until such time when the 20 day SMA is broken again from the opposite side.

    A friend of mine who was a die-hard EWT trader finally gave up on EWT and started using the conventional TA methods and trend-trading methods last month (more than 18 months after I told him EWT is useless in Fed sponsored markets). I see merits in EWT for short term trading (as it lets you know at which point you’re wrong and must close positions), but the fundamental flaws in applying EWT is the trader’s bias and ignoring the supply/demand equation (hence why I always look to volume to confirm my setups). I use trend-trading methods and Fibonacci ratios for my trading in 2010, plus I started using the Zero in June. Mole has developed the best LONG-SIDE TIMING INDICATOR I have found. On the daily Zero, look for a spike below -3 (or better, -5) and if the next day the market makes a lower low (or better, close lower) while the daily Zero snaps back to 0, go long, no questions asked. Hold through the bullish reversal and hold until a confirmed two bar break of the acceleration line. If you did that in February, you would have racked up 170 SPX points, and if you did that in August, you would have racked up 170 SPX points. The time it takes is longer than the short-side, but 170 SPX points are still 170 SPX points. The money you win on the long side is worth the same as the money you win on the short side.

    Rule #1: When I trade with an established trend, volume really has no effect until it does.

    What I do is this – I use the daily Zero indicator to time the intermediate term bottom, and once I take my long position, I ride it through trend change. How do I know the trend changes from bearish to bullish? When I see a high volume bar break of the acceleration line (on A/D ratio > 10 and UVOL/DVOL > 9) followed by a higher close on the second bar on the daily chart (provided that the second bar does not close more than 47.2% off its high). Once this condition occurs, usually the third bar is a no-supply bar low volume back test of the acceleration line. During this time, it’s very easy to get faked out. BE STRONG, as long as the third bar does not break the acceleration line or retrace more than 61.8% of the gains from the previous two bars, you’re fine.

    Once all three bars are confirmed, the trend will be bullish. For how long? No one knows. All you do is you keep monitoring the daily bars. The first distribution bar (decliner/advancer ratio > 10 and DVOL/UVOL > 9) MUST break the acceleration line to signal a possible trend change. Once this occurs, you want to monitor to see if there is a second bar break of the acceleration line. If no, then don’t get faked out unless the third bar closes below the lows of the first distribution bar. Two scenarios here: 1) a confirmed two bar break of the acceleration line – dump most or all of your long positions (depending on your risk appetite) on the “no-demand” third bar back test; or 2) third bar closes below the low of the first bar after the second bar didn’t close lower – dump most or all of your long positions on the fourth “no-demand” back test of the acceleration line. Most importantly, pick your exit points right!

    Throughout the time you ride with the trend, volume will have minimal impact. Bears kept on complaining that the rally was running on fumes (decreasing volume) but the truth of the matter is – the MAs have already taken over after the initial short covering run. From that point on, MAs dictate the direction until several distribution bars within a short time window.

    Rule #2: Upon a break of the 20 day MA, GET OUT NO MATTER WIN OR LOSS

    This is stop-loss. Simple as that.

    Rule #3: Buy on the first touch of a rising 20 day MA and short on the first touch of a falling 20 day MA.

  • BobbyLow

    Wow. I missed that exchange and must have been absent. One good thing is that I noticed that most of the posters from that day 9 months ago are still around. This is a good thing.

    Only closed one trade today and that was a + .3 R Scalp of the GBP/JPY.

    Forex Capital is in bed for the night. Tomorrow is another day. :)

  • wandering196

    Can you remind us which book please

  • Scott Phillips

    Very much, its a nice trade on a number of levels :)

  • Scott Phillips

    To say the least! It’s a little humbling to realize I traded for most of my career with edges that are marginal at best, and complete bullshit at worst

  • Scott Phillips

    Professional Speculation by Neiderhoffer

  • Scott Phillips

    Now this is a fucking quote and a half!

    “When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.” -Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (2007-Random House)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    NP.
    not to be a word Nazi, but could we throw Fears comments between some italics delimiters?

  • Scott Phillips

    The evilspeculator creed – keeping it real. So much, at least 80% of what I thought was true about market edges, when placed under a microscope, was in fact NOT TRUE.

    Remember how I used to post retest variation sell setups all the time here? For YEARS! Those are not an edge. Sure, sometimes, with discretion there is a spot you can see they are an edge, but overall, nope. In fact they are such a negative edge overall that the failure of them actually IS an edge (which is what Heisenberg was based on)

    Ditto for inside days. Also stuff I thought was a marginal edge turns out to be a real edge. Turns out my opinions about what works and what doesn’t, objectively suck.

    I believed, really believed, in that setup. Twas my FAVORITE. Doesn’t work. Never did. If I can be fooled, so can you. Our brains evolved to look for patterns, so we see them even when they don’t exist.

  • Scott Phillips

    “since I turned everything off my trading is much better” – this is very insightful

  • wandering196

    thanks, i think I’ll read it

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Silver.
    May pop tomorrow. How far can this beach ball be pushed under?

    yes yes, the trend is your friend.
    http://s18.postimg.org/ihlcjlveh/Oct_20_Silver.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    excellent. that means I have a head start.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    why would anyone develop opinions on weak evidence? I sold my house in California when I talked to a former girl I dated in 2007 told me she was making 250K a year doing wholesale mortgages for New Century Financial, She knew more about astrology than yield and credit tiers….the bubble was exposed….

    Its why I still review macro trends as RoundweGo mentions below…Global growth is now retracting….thus oil went down….China MFG is down and they have shipped out for Xmas…so it will get worse…

    Vix long is still the play coming into next month and Dec. No QE will finally unleash the Vix, the black swan for the bernanke put was controlling vix…..nobody new how that would play out…

  • RUFCrazy2

    Thanks for the Mea Culpa, never found any edges in that stuff either, always wondered who did.
    The Vix buys are decent but take a varying time to complete and happen too irregularly to build a robust strategy around. I guess maybe a handful of trades a year or something if you’re watching for it maybe.

  • captainboom
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    okay, I have no edge.
    Nobody liked my Fibonacci rings, or fans.

    Mr. Phillips, you can have my channels from my cold DEAD HANDS.
    😉
    http://s7.postimg.org/j90emtnjd/cold_dead_hands.png

    Yes, Yes – I see some raised eyebrows in the audience. watching the $SPX alone is not enough. you must watch the Spoos. (overnight illegitimacy or not)

  • RUFCrazy2

    Much better that I can get my head around. Just MHO.

  • Round we go

    Nuts, missed that drama. I have been lurking since 2008. Went into hybernation a year half ago but now the weekly time frame has sparked my interest and I have a feeling that fearless has been digging deaply into the current mid term setups.

    Many trading blogs have come and go since 2008. Evil speculator has an integrity that stands the test of time. Keep truckin mole.

  • Round we go

    A retail traders odds are probably the same as playing blackjack in vegas. But the professional gamblers play poker against the marks not against the house ( which takes a cut )

  • Scott Phillips

    If you want to draw 4 cat scratches across your charts and tell yourself they have predictive value, have at it :)

    Perhaps you might wish to measure and test your own assumptions. I’m surprised by how many things I believed in with no validity, you might be too :)

  • Scott Phillips

    Its lining up nicely, one more dip buying frenzy that fails, then wham

  • Scott Phillips

    And I made literally THOUSANDS of trades based on those patterns. When you are wrong you are wrong 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Because we not only challenge others but more importantly ourselves. I am light years ahead of where I was nine months ago but most of the people I see out there still follow the same stuff they did five years ago. In this game you either evolve or you disappear.

    And we’re just getting started.

  • Scott Phillips

    Bobby I got your email will respond tomorrow :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    One question: are you actually trading your system? For money? Because in all the years I have seen you here I don’t recall hearing you talk about a campaign.

  • RUFCrazy2

    The next 1000 trades are what matters. Live and learn is an aphorism but is is what matters. Very much appreciate the honesty. I bet you learned very well how to manage a failing entry, that I am sure of – been there. Too bad you didn’t flip those suckers !

  • RUFCrazy2

    We ARE just getting started. My Risk Mgmt has improved immeasurably due to Scott’s preaching, make that teachings. And he is right. I added 50% to my account balances and am now capitalized to set risk @ 2.5% per trade based on almost 8 yrs of $1400 / true ES drawdowns and feel a lot safer, not to mention – saner… I will get to that illusory million (my 4-5 yr goal) may take another year but I will get there.

  • RUFCrazy2

    Expect to make it in 4-5 yrs

  • phylum

    Whatever your “system”, the body of evidence gives you a trade. Right or wrong, you trade. It may be only 50:50 but it’s your 50:50, win, lose or draw.

  • Scott Phillips

    People develop opinions on weak evidence ALL the time. Do you believe stochastics are an edge? Those stupid channels Gerb posts? RSI? Head and shoulders patterns? NONE of those things are an edge.

    I’m as guilty as anyone else on this stuff, but both Mole and I refuse to do it anymore.

  • Scott Phillips

    Admittedly RTVs were an edge on the indexes(cash) and quite a good one, but overall, no.

  • Scott Phillips

    Admittedly RTVs were an edge on the indexes(cash) and quite a good one, but overall, no.

  • Scott Phillips

    That’s what Heisenberg is. Wait for one of those to fail and get in for the opposite squeeze. The idea came to me after watching Gabriel Grammatidis trade, almost every trade he took was a failed RTV.

  • Scott Phillips

    thats the one

  • Scott Phillips

    Great article – and a great point he makes that making a living from short term trading IS elite performance

    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com.au/2014/10/the-real-source-of-trading-success.html

  • Scott Phillips

    It’s not the flaws. It’s that you haven’t bothered to count how often they work, or don’t.

    You are MAGNETICALLY attracted to bogus methods, like a moth to a flame, and you steadfastly refuse to do a proper analysis of any of them.

    This is really really really stopping you from achieving your dreams of being a trader and not a wage-slave :)

  • mugabe

    Sounds pretty opinionated to me!

  • mugabe

    I get the impression you are attracted to geometrical formations and geometrical symmetry, so you are a very visual person. That is all well and good if you can build a statistically valid system out of it which is not not based on your subjective perception, or on it working brilliantly a few times which are not in the slightest statistically significant. Just my 2 cents.

  • mugabe

    Yes, the crux of this he’s said a few times: great traders are doing something different- they have a unique lens. Obviously, the lens needs to have proven positive expectancy.

    It’s obvious when you think about it- you’re not going to get super results by applying obvious TA set-ups.

  • mugabe

    There is some evidence for RSI 2 working as a mean reversion tool.

  • Scott Phillips

    And also that in most fields an average guy can make a living. An average teacher, an average doctor will be employable. An average trader is going broke.

    Very big difference to every other profession

  • Scott Phillips

    I grudgingly admit you could use the envelopes as a valid filter for some kind of real setup with an edge, taking longs at the low end and shorts at the high end

  • Scott Phillips

    Please post :) I’ve done some research and didn’t find anything valid

  • Scott Phillips

    That’s my best guess on the highest probability outcome given that a dramatic increase in volatility most often coincides with the closing phases of any move. We may make another high, but it’s a lower probability outcome at this point.

    The highest probability outcome is for the current rally to fall short of the old highs. Why? Because we have longs who were trapped in the recent drop who are “just waiting to get out even” which will put a cap on any upside move.

    This doesn’t mean that is going to happen, and the BEST case odds for this are around 60:40

    That’s the thing. It never gets better than 60:40, no matter how good the setup.

  • Scott Phillips

    The downside gap with no gap fill (gap n go) was bearish the first day. 2 days in a row of downside gap and go is very bearish.

  • newbfxtrader

    Am liking my coffee today morning :) Anyone take the short with me?

  • mugabe
  • mugabe

    Thanks for the detailed answer. Not quite as exciting/categorical as:

    Its lining up nicely, one more dip buying frenzy that fails, then wham:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

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    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

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    But you’re not going to like it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Word. But Scott – see my next post. It’s not just about skill. It’s really about diligence and consistency. THAT is where most people lack.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    correct. The visuals actually are a disadvantage.
    Being here at EvilSpec has corrected a majority of it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    For money, yes.

    Campaign? that requires a war chest. something I don’t have.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ouch, ouch. okay.
    I have learned that predictive value is not as valuable as the probabilistic setup.