After a hopeful start of the session for the longs we slipped into some bearish follow through mid session. Let me make this crystal clear – I trust none of this and although more downside is always a possibility I am patiently sitting this one out.
Well, here’s the video wrap up – watch it and then tell me if that was truly a bearish session. FYI – NYSE D/A today closed at 1.22:1 – compare that with yesterday’s close at 5.36:1. We may be looking at bearish exhaustion here but to be sure we probably need to see another bearish day with less negative breadth. The pattern on the D/A (and A/D) leaves the door open for a slow downside churn that needs to be strongly interrupted (i.e. an aggressive push higher) to find its floor.
Geronimo was not having fun today. It got stopped out on a short trade early in the day, then it took a long trade and encountered an ‘exit condition’ which in the new version keeps it from taking a loss early. Fortunately it then nailed another short trade, reducing the damage to two handles.
Beautiful signals again on Helter Skalper – not sure why nobody is talking about this one but I can only drag to the horse to the water, I can’t make it drink
For the subs here are some Net-Lines on the daily SPX as well as the hourly spoos:
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
Yesterday’s session was highly suspicious and in particular I am referring to that rope-a-dope the MMs played toward the end. So seeing today’s follow through and clearly bullish session was not a big surprise to me:
I hope you guys heeded my multiple warnings and took profits while Mr. VIX was tickling the 20 mark.
Geronimo nailed one today – that’s how we like it. I’m glad it got out of there before they tried to scare the children at the EOD.
Helter Skalper painted some nice signals as well. I strongly believe that this could provide a clear edge in combination with your favorite ES swing trading or scalping system.
I just realized that I named the past two wrap up posts with the wrong day of the week – how embarrassing. Fortunately none of you rodent brain knuckleheads happened to notice
My take away from today’s session: a) it was typical post drop tape – both sides had to digest what happened yesterday and nobody seemed to be very trigger happy today; and b) the bears better strike tomorrow or they’ll find themselves on the receiving end of the stick on Monday.
I wish I could boast about Geronimo today but it won one and lost two for a net loss of 14 ticks. I have not yet touched the short rules as I want to observe them a little bit more. Frankly, when it comes to black boxes it’s always very tempting to start futzing with them during down days but heed my words: Premature optimization is the root of all evil. Those very same short rules worked very well until last week and I need to collect a bit more evidence before I add additional parameters.
The 4k tick EUR/USD chart on ZeroFX continues to deliver reasons to move to a different time zone – if Scott was in Australia right now he would have caught it. Instead he’s chasing long legged French girls in Paris – how I envy that cheeky bastard. Wish I was there – Paris in spring – doesn’t get much better that that.
Anyway, that was one fine top call – and that is indeed a properly shaped signal when compared with others that produced great entries in the recent past. I think the sweet spot on the 4k is a push outside 1.0 on the white line plus a long lonely spike on the blue line with a minimum reading of 3.0 – 4.0 or higher is preferred. That is when you hold your nose and take a contrarian trade.
The 1k panel wasn’t shabby either however – observe those finely timed spikes to the up and down side. Definite edge/potential there.
The first hour of today’s session session was a bit trippy – and it was served with the obligatory bear trap which I hope all of you subs avoided:
The key entry today was a bit subtle but it was there. When the spoos looked like they’re about to drop off the edge Zero Lite was completely unimpressed and painted a divergence. Those setups are never a guarantee of course but if you see them go in there and simply set a stop a few ticks from the prior low.
Geronimo wasn’t missing out on the fun today and nailed a nice long scalp.
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