Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.


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Cheers,

Kicking Off This Week

Today is another national holiday over here in Spain (Easter Monday) and thus I’m posting the morning update a bit earlier as usual as my entire day shifts around a little. As some of you know I have been coding the entire long weekend in order to complete a much anticipated CrazyIvan release. It’s pretty exciting stuff and I’ll be devoting an entire post to explaining what all the hoopla is about. But in the interim I have a ton of very juicy short term setups on the roster this morning – especially Forex is off the hook. So if you’re around it’s time to get busy folks – let’s wield the iron while it is hot:

Starting with equities – the spoos are holding nicely thus far and the 25-hour is carrying without breaking a sweat. There’s however the matter of that daily NLBL at 1,867.5 which expires tomorrow evening. As you can see the range of candles is getting smaller as we are approaching and it’s possible that we are going to see a little shake out today – very hard to gauge as it’s still early. I do however have a ST entry on one of its three futures brethren – but I’ll keep that one for the subs ;-)

Here’s a nice one on the Forex front – EUR/CAD – nicely trending up and I want to be long above that hourly NLSL near 1.5288. My stop would be below 1.5215, putting it near that 100-hour SMa.

Quite a bit more below the fold – please step into my lair:


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It goes without saying that you should split your exposure amongst correlated pairs – don’t put 1R into all of them as you would be effectively trading the same currency with a higher R percentage. Alright, have fun but keep it frosty!

Cheers,

Drop The Baseline

Having been on the road until Tuesday I just realized that we’re heading into a long weekend. I suspect most of you are already on the way out or won’t catch this before Sunday night. So let’s dive right in:

The VIX Buy signal we triggered on Tuesday seems to be proceeding nicely. Worth noting is the fact that we have rapidly descended back toward a baseline near VIX 13.5 which only recently was breached. That’s quite a volatility squeeze and if you were caught with puts (and even calls) near the bottom and didn’t get out then your premiums aren’t worth jack at this point.

On the spoos we are heading toward a NLBL which represents our first technical hurdle. Nothing else to see here…

Our GBP/JPY correlation seems to be supportive – it’s served us well again this week.

My YM entry this morning has paid off very handsomely and I’m taking it off the table now as we’re touching a NLBL on the daily panel. Good chance for a little shake out here.

I know it’s a long weekend and all but I actually ran into some very nice setups. Please join me in the lair:


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Per today’s theme I’m kicking off your Easter weekend in style by dropping a real bassline:

And another one – as it’s a three day weekend – wohoo!

Make sure no pets or younglings are nearby then grab a cold one and crank these suckers up. Wishing you all a fabulous weekend – see you guys next Monday!

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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    2. Looking A Bit Iffy There
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