Sitting Pretty

I’m glad I stayed out of that equities campaign as it continues to test everyone’s patience. If you’re short since yesterday then you may be wondering if this is merely one last stab higher before the big drop. Well, maybe – I don’t have a dog in this fight which affords me a reasonable sense of objectivity. And the way it’s looking right now this beast could swing either way. But as I pointed out yesterday, terrible conditions with limited downside potential. But hey if you must dabble – be my guest – here are a few pertinent perspectives:

2014-09-10_spoos_profile

Rather interestingly we saw a bounce right at the end of a tiny volume hole. Another tick or two below and the bears would have enjoyed a much needed injection of participation. But for some reason the spoos touched 1980 and jumped right back into the dreaded whipsaw zone. Seemed utterly avoidable given the recent lack of participation, thus it begs the question as to whether this may be a bull trap. IF it really is then we need to turn back lower sharply before the end of the session – the more time we spend up here the worse for the much battered grizzlies.

2014-09-10_SPX_hourly

The hourly SPX shows us a touch of the lower 100-hour Bollinger. And boy – is that one compressed to the max right now – we’re talking less than 20 handles top to bottom. So something’s got to give here soon and most likely it will. Now, if our Sorgenkind indeed resolves lower then we may actually drop all the way to that 100-day SMA near 1940.

Here are a few short term momo charts – subs only. The free portion of this post continues further below:


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Alright – I’ve done my duty to your equities addicts – now to the interesting part ;-)

2014-09-10_EURCAD_update

Update on our EUR/CAD campaign – well, it dropped back to whence it came. Fortunately we enjoyed a very fortunate early entry and thus can afford to sit out a possible retest of the 100-week SMA. Nothing to do here right now.

2014-09-10_cotton_update

Cotton however has fared rather well and we almost touched 3R today. Which means we’re moving our stop to the 2R mark. This may actually work out fine as it gives us a bit room for a possible shake out day or two. IF this one manages to breach the upper 25-day BB it may just turn into a runner. So I personally will only use 50% of my stop at the 2R mark – the remainder goes to the 1R mark.  The long term potential here justifies a bit of campaign management discretion. This approach has served us well over the past few weeks.

2014-09-10_cocoa_update

Cocoa – and it’s off to the races! Well, we hope…. excellent entry with minimal risk yesterday. This is why I love those last kiss goodbye entries. So sweet when they actually trigger. Nothing to do here either – it’s do or die time – we have done our part.

Cheers,

This Could Drag Out

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-09-08_spoos_hourly

I looked at the zoomed out hourly E-Mini this morning and it looks like we may get stuck up here for a while. Quite a bit of sideways volatility as discussed last week and clearly the 2k mark is now being established. Whether or not we correct here is beside the point – but we are plotting a ton of context here which will either act as resistance or support later. Judging by recent history it’ll most likely be support…

2014-09-08_spoos_briefing

Last time we blasted right through the prior sideways range as if it didn’t existed. But rest assured that it would be observed on a drop lower – so if we descent my eye would be on the 1980 range for support. Which kind of is the rub here, isn’t it? If you just look at the pat month or so it looks like there’s plenty of room for correction. But then consider the previous 1980 churn zone, the 25-day SMA at 1970, the 100-day SMA at 1940. All I can say is – good luck to the bears – they need it…

Bottom line: I would love to see a drop lower here for obvious reasons – but as it stands we may spend much of the week in here. Well, I hope I’m dead wrong on this one.

2014-09-08_ZN_briefing

The 10-year is looking like a bounce candidate but frankly it’s a speculative entry at best. I do like the configuration on the daily – if we drop lower. Right now I’ll see if that NLSL is going to hold for an hour – if it does I’m long 1/4R with a stop below 125’040 – tiny risk. May pay off on the off chance that it runs higher.

Two more ST setups below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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2014-09-08_EURUSD_briefing

 

They are both actually based on the same idea, so if you take them both split your R between them. That said - both are pretty speculative and I strongly recommend you don’t risk more than 1R combined. The EUR has been sold into oblivion and it’s trying to muster up some mojo for an obligatory bounce. Frankly I hope it’ll go to hell in a hand-basked (expat living in Spain) but just in case I’m going to take out a little long position here with a stop below the lower 25-hour BB.

2014-09-08_EURCAD_briefing

 

Very same idea on the EUR/CAD – and frankly I think the odds are low. But that means IF (and only IF) this play pans out it’ll probably correct back to the 100-hour SMA. So a 4x pay off for a small risk – worth a shot.

If you’re looking for a more respectable setup – something know sharp looking chart preferably wearing wearing a tailored suit and an Armani tie… well, let’s wait a day and see if we get more lucky tomorrow ;-)

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Cheers,

Substandard High Intensity Tape

In the past week we have been seeing increasing volatility in all equity indices – as of right now we remain locked in a limbo period (for more info on the definition please point your browser to my pertinent post). In a nutshell the implications here are to a) stay the heck out or b) play the swings to your best abilities.

2014-09-05_spoos_update

Now when it comes to limbo tape there are of course various flavors. All of them are highly volatile of course as the idea is to produce maximum amount of noise in order to draw impatient participants into emotional trades. Revenge trading and tape chasing is the order of the day and market makers usually love every minute of it. But there is one flavor that’s particularly nasty and it’s the type we’re stuck in right now – long wicks combined with small real bodies and all that in a sideways trading range. The technical term for it is Substandard High Intensity Tape – or more commonly referred to as SHIT.

2014-09-05_spoos_ST

Suffice to say that if you happen to come across SHIT tape you stay the [insert expletive of your choice] out.

Seriously speaking however – this thing should have been resolved by now and the more it coils up the more explosive I expect to be its resolution. Unfortunately I do NOT see any directional signals here that I would feel comfortable considering, let alone use for anything but intra-day swing trades. At this point we should embrace the fact that we do not know which way it’ll turn, at least not yet. And if that means we may miss the rocket then that’s okay. This is the type of game you’ll only win by not playing.

2014-09-05_shut_up

Alright – I know: “Mole, shut the hell up about your damn Dollar campaign already!” I apologize for having to post this chart again but there has been a change. Given the current velocity I have decided to set my trailing stop to 15% MFE and turn it into a monthly campaign. I am certain a shake out is coming soon here but I now see the potential for a run into 85,

2014-09-05_Dollar_PNF

I looked at several intervals on my P&F chart and ~85 seemed to be the consensus. So let’s see if it plays out.

Two juicy commodity setups below the fold – so please grab your secret decoder rings:


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Alright, I think we’ve done enough damage for this week – it’s been fun. And you all know what comes next for the Mole:

beer3

 

That looks about right. (the beer of course)

Cheers,





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