Campaign Updates

Apparently Scott’s early morning paranoia seems to have been justified as we’ve seen quite a turn around in equities today. Which by the way clearly began ahead of reports of a plane crash near the Russian/Ukrainian border. What a royal mess and sincerely I hope this doesn’t turn into a larger conflict. As you can imagine both Russia and Ukraine will be in the hot-seat until investigators are able to figure out what exactly happened.

But let’s talk about the market. I often point at the GBP/JPY as one of the major carry trade pairs however some traders prefer the watch the EUR/JPY. Well, it’s been pointing down since yesterday and today it turned into a veritable cascade.

Which was mirrored by the GBP/JPY as well. I am keeping my eye on this one but thus far I don’t see any signs of a bounce. Not good for the bulls and it could mean we head lower.

Suffice to say that my long campaign was stopped out near the NLSL on the ES. Here’s the SPX cash which offers possible support near its own NLSL at 1969.56 followed by its 25-day SMA at 1962.39. Prices are currently re-testing the former but if it gives we’ll most likely visit the latter.

A lot more luck on the gold campaign which almost banked us 2R today as it literally exploded higher. That was actually unexpected as we just came out of a big move. I think by now you know the rules – if we close above the 1R mark we’ll keep the campaign open, if we do not then we close out near the EOD.

30-year bond futures also above the 1R profit mark at this point. Same idea here – we need to close the session above the 138’04 mark or it’s time to take profits and end this campaign.

I wanted to offer few more thoughts given the developing situation in the Ukraine. Over the next few days I’m sure we will see a lot of news drivel rife with accusations, rumors, misinformation, human tragedy stories, you name it. I strongly suggest you stick with a strict information diet which means ignoring all of it until we get unequivocal confirmation of the culprit responsible. Suffice to say that it should not affect your trading in any way – whatever price swings would have happened have already happened. Don’t let the drama queens, conspiracy theorists, and tabloids affect your mental equilibrium. As much as I regret what happened to the passengers on this ill-fated flight – this is not an opportunity to satisfy your lust for sensationalism.

Make no mistake – none of the sources spreading rumors or theories about what may have happened today should be trusted as they couldn’t give a rat’s rectum about the truth or the people who so horribly died. Eventually I am certain the truth will be revealed – until then the minimum we owe to the victims and their families is a speck of respect, which means not participating in a sensationalistic media frenzy. Just consider for a second it was the charred remains of one of your loved ones laying there on the ground – that ought to give you a bit of perspective.

I hate rubber-necking and refuse to engage into such egocentric activities – and the same attitude extends to any type of catastrophe – be it man-made or acts of nature. Let’s act like adults and maintain a sense of decorum. My thoughts tonight are with the victims as well as their families.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.


Cautious Thursday Morning Update

Mole asked me to do a quick post, so here is my take on the current price action. This market is showing signs of weakening from a strong trend into a trading range, and though there is no reason to be short yet, we are approaching upside resistance and yesterday we did not go up like we should have.

Don’t get me wrong. We are still in an uptrend and there is no reason at all to get short yet.  I’m just not quite liking the tone of the market at these lofty heights. We have a strong trend, which has weakened into a channel. Last week the bears tried to drive the market down, fucking it up like usual, leaving the way free for a short squeeze.

My problem with the price action to the upside is that this short squeeze really should have hit new highs two days ago, or yesterday at the latest. What that is telling me is that bulls are a bit weaker than expected. Anything short of a gap up and go at the open making fresh highs is very suspicious for further gains without a pullback.

More below the fold:

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Scott Phillips

Light Summer Setups

Equities were in shake out mode this morning but we are near today’s daily trigger again. Let’s review the situation and follow up with a handful of light summer setups.

This is a hammer long in an uptrend plus it’s an Retest Variation Long. Your stop will be below yesterday’s lows which is more than generous. If you want to tweak it you can also use that NLSL at 1962.5 – actually that’s what I’ll be doing.

Gold is back below its two daily SMAs – this may be a last kiss goodbye configuration but I’m open to both directions courtesy of the inside day candle. You know what to do.

ZB futures – another RTV – this time short. But it’s also an inside day candle and if it closes like the chart a hammer long. So various reasons to justify an entry here. This may take a few days to finally resolve but with gold you need to bring an extra helping of patience.

Cable – big move there yesterday and it now has to pick a direction. I would prefer the long side courtesy of that NLBL but we also have an IP with a long trigger right on top of it. Got to love that one – plus we have the 25-day offering potential support from below. I’m mostly interested in trading with the trend here.


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