April Fools Day Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

This morning we’ve got a bit of turbulence on the map around 10:00am EDT when the ISM manufacturing data is being released. This will affect equities as well as any USD pairs – watch your behind.

Equities have been steaming ahead but not giving us much context – that sometimes happens but it cannot be helped. If you are already long or are looking for a way to get in then focus on the 25-hour SMA which at this point seems to be the pushing price higher.

Things look a bit more juicy on the TF side (Russell futures) and I am considering a long once that expiring NLSL meets its own 25-hour SMA. Entry would be near 1168.1 – stop below the SMA.

Bonds are again on a downside trajectory and I want to be long on a retest of the NLBL at 132’29. Stop would be above the 25-hour, which unfortunately is only providing soft context at this point.


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Inflection Point

The Russell futures have descended lower into the first support zone on our map. Here’s where the tape of the coming weeks will be decided – meaning whether we bounce and continue on our merry way higher or if we are to see a meaningful correction. The implications of a breach here would be serious in particular given the price objective on our SPX point and figure chart.

As you can see the daily is already touching its 100-day SMA and we are but a few ticks away from visiting our weekly NLSL (closely followed by the 25-week SMA). The latter has been acting as support for months now and quite obviously the bulls do not want to give that one up. Otherwise I do not have much to add on the equities front – as I said this morning, the onus is now on the bears to initiate a medium term trend change. If it was Monday or Tuesday I may consider a speculative long position here – and as you recall I was still short:

My open campaign did already reach its 1R point today and per the rules I will close out EOD unless we drop below 1143.5 again. I am tempted to change campaign management to a more trending approach but the odds of continuation lower here are limited right now plus the weekend is at our doorsteps.

Our Zero indicator also doesn’t show us anything worth writing home about. Almost a complete flatline, so participation down here is practically inexistent.

Bonds – the subs and I went long the bonds this morning. The ZN got shaken out but the ZB stuck just nicely. I’m actually going to hold this one given the daily context:

That was a nice and surprising breach and I think I’m going to play this via my trending campaign management, meaning I will advance my stop to every following spike low. Let’s see where she takes us.

GBP/CHF – knocking on upside resistance and I would be very interested in a long breach here – trigger on the chart. The weekly context is rather interesting given the entangled 100/25-week SMAs. If we push above today’s highs then we should be good until that weekly NLBL.

Have fun but keep it frosty!

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Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

The tape is moving in our favor but I don’t like it – at least not yet. First we haven’t seen any acceleration after yesterday’s sell off session. The next level of support on the TF is near 1144 and given the current gyrations I see little odds for a slice through that one.

And then there’s this – the E-Mini against the GBP/JPY, a popular carry trade currency. There have been a lot of gyrations and divergences as of late, thus expressing the sense of confusion we have been experiencing. Today’s jab higher on the GBP/JPY however is rather pronounced and am skeptical how equities can continue downward.

The bottom line however remains this – we continue to see volatile sideways gyrations without follow up moves. And those are really where the rubber meets the road – until we see continuation for at least two or three sessions I expect the current equilibrium to continue. Every day we continue in this sideways pattern increases the chances that this is simply a sideways correction – not good news for the bears obviously. So at this point the onus is on the bears to take this thing lower, and they are starting to run out of time.

On the dollar side my daily campaign got stopped out in profits earlier and I’m now interested in a long campaign right here with as stop below 80.16.

A few more goodies below the fold…


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Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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