Fun With Forex

Equities are doing their thing and I’ve been entertaining myself otherwise. This morning I proposed two speculative entries, one of which may actually turn into something interesting. Let’s take a look:

2014-09-08_EURCAD

The symbols were EUR/USD and EUR/CAD – the former dropped lower (much to my joy – see the DX) and the latter is climbing higher. Now this may just be a one day affair but given the formations on the daily and weekly (2nd and 3rd panel) we could be on to something. Which is why I’m converting this into a daily campaign now.

2014-09-08_USDZAR_setup

USD/ZAR – I had my eye on this sucker hoping it would push back into that 10.8 zone – wish granted! I’m now short with a stop above 10.84. No long play if I’m stopped out – that 25-week BB is too close for comfort.

Only one setup for the subs tonight BUT it’s a super juicy one – not to be missed! Please step into my lair:


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Cheers,

This Could Drag Out

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

2014-09-08_spoos_hourly

I looked at the zoomed out hourly E-Mini this morning and it looks like we may get stuck up here for a while. Quite a bit of sideways volatility as discussed last week and clearly the 2k mark is now being established. Whether or not we correct here is beside the point – but we are plotting a ton of context here which will either act as resistance or support later. Judging by recent history it’ll most likely be support…

2014-09-08_spoos_briefing

Last time we blasted right through the prior sideways range as if it didn’t existed. But rest assured that it would be observed on a drop lower – so if we descent my eye would be on the 1980 range for support. Which kind of is the rub here, isn’t it? If you just look at the pat month or so it looks like there’s plenty of room for correction. But then consider the previous 1980 churn zone, the 25-day SMA at 1970, the 100-day SMA at 1940. All I can say is – good luck to the bears – they need it…

Bottom line: I would love to see a drop lower here for obvious reasons – but as it stands we may spend much of the week in here. Well, I hope I’m dead wrong on this one.

2014-09-08_ZN_briefing

The 10-year is looking like a bounce candidate but frankly it’s a speculative entry at best. I do like the configuration on the daily – if we drop lower. Right now I’ll see if that NLSL is going to hold for an hour – if it does I’m long 1/4R with a stop below 125’040 – tiny risk. May pay off on the off chance that it runs higher.

Two more ST setups below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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2014-09-08_EURUSD_briefing

 

They are both actually based on the same idea, so if you take them both split your R between them. That said - both are pretty speculative and I strongly recommend you don’t risk more than 1R combined. The EUR has been sold into oblivion and it’s trying to muster up some mojo for an obligatory bounce. Frankly I hope it’ll go to hell in a hand-basked (expat living in Spain) but just in case I’m going to take out a little long position here with a stop below the lower 25-hour BB.

2014-09-08_EURCAD_briefing

 

Very same idea on the EUR/CAD – and frankly I think the odds are low. But that means IF (and only IF) this play pans out it’ll probably correct back to the 100-hour SMA. So a 4x pay off for a small risk – worth a shot.

If you’re looking for a more respectable setup – something know sharp looking chart preferably wearing wearing a tailored suit and an Armani tie… well, let’s wait a day and see if we get more lucky tomorrow ;-)

[/am4show

Cheers,

Better Triptych Than Cryptic

I can literally see you guys scratching your collective heads, so let’s precede the charts with what the heck a ‘triptych’ is supposed be. Here you go – lifted right off Wikipedia: A triptych is a work of art (usually a panel painting) that is divided into three sections, or three carved panels which are hinged together and can be folded shut or displayed open. It is therefore a type of polyptych, the term for all multi-panel works.

2014-08-29_spoos_update

Well, I guess that cleared it all right up then, didn’t it? And you’ll be happy to know that all triptychs presented today were painstakingly hand-carved by yours truly. That’s right – we spare no expense here at Evil Speculator! (RIP Richard!)

Alright now seriously – it’s the end of the month and since the tape is diddle daddling around the 2k mark, pretending that it has any real meaning, this is as good a time as ever to revisit a few of our long term charts. And guess what – we’ll do it triptych style, meaning we look at the daily|weekly|monthly panels side by side. This way we are able to better discern where potential inflection points are present.

2014-08-29_spoos_triptic

Starting of course with equities here we have the E-Mini futures – purists would insist on charting the cash but on the long term side I think it’s acceptable to use them as price differences sort of wash out. As you can see there is – well, actually there’s almost nothing to be seen here in terms of upside resistance. I see a truck load of weekly and monthly support, for that matter. For instance there’s the brand spanking new NLSL on the weekly backed up by the 25-week SMA. On the monthly we’ve got the diagonal from hell which has been frustrating the bears for several years now. And every month higher produces another stepping stone for the bulls per the Net-Line rules (see the cheat sheet).

So we are looking at a solid trend here folks and if you cut out all the noise it’s never been really threatened this year, despite the little drop we recently played quite effectively.

2014-08-29_DX_tryptic

This chart paints a big smile on this lowly expat’s silly face – old bucky finally got its groove on and there’s really nothing holding it back until about 83.5. That is where I expect to be scaling out of those long positions which have been adding much ill-gotten gains to my trading account.

More non-cryptic triptychs below the fold – secret decoder ring required:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

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Well, it’s been a fun and most of all – very profitable – summer for us steel rats. If you played along then you pad yourself on the shoulder and reward yourself with generous helping of your favorite malt beverage. Your mileage may vary but you know what that means for this old market megalomaniac :-)

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Prost!





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