The Return Of Heisenberg

No, unfortunately Walter White didn’t mysteriously return from the grave. But this is almost as good and I don’t think I’m exaggerating. Yes, you guessed right – it’s ba-aack! After weeks of fine tuning and internal improvements we have decided to once more unleash Heisenberg (our trading strategy) onto our intrepid steel rats – which is you guys.

It’s better – it’s bigger – and it’s got a bad attitude. So why did we pull it in the first place about two months ago? The answer is complicated but I’ll try to explain. The entry logic has not changed at all – what has is the pre-conditions that qualify the entry logic to kick in. And by that I mean certain proprietary methods (not unlike those used by Walter White) that allow us to carefully target our victims and get positioned for maximum impact.

Of course none of that makes any sense to you and that is the general idea as Heisenberg is proprietary and will always remain to be so. The basic entry rules are very similar to CrazyIvan but that is where the resemblance ends. Heisenberg is a lean mean trend trading machine whose sinister activites are fueled by the mental anguish of the hapless victims that find themselves on the other side of its trades.

Above I have pulled a screen grab of the current campaign on the E-Mini and this is not cherry picked – we have been testing it on the Forex side for weeks now with outstanding results. The average expectancy is a mind boggling 0.65R – yes, you read that right. And on the E-Mini it’s closer to 0.7R – which is outright insane.

How do we do it? You guessed right again – magnets – of course! And best of all – it’s still in beta and thus absolutely and deliciously FREE. Gratis para todas las ratas que hablan español.  Meaning you can sign up right now to receive real-time email and Jabber alerts. I haven’t updated the Heisenberg tutorial yet but if you want to receive the latter than follow the instructions on the CrazyIvan page.

Campaign Update

Equities have been holding steady over the weekend despite some very surprising results in the European elections. I guess it’s time for us Germans to start munching on cheese and baguettes as the French apparently are the right wing extremists now. Nah, I’m joking – given European socialist standards ‘far right’ means they’ve moved a bit closer toward what would make for moderate Democrats over int the U.S. What the article doesn’t really make clear is that the French nationals didn’t just make it into the European parliament – they completely swept the election!

Anyway, enough of the politics – we usually keep it to a minimum here at Evil Speculator. Why? Because we’re more concerned with banking coin as that allows us to buy us our own select group of politicians. If you want something done just buy yourself a mayor or perhaps a state senator and see it get done! Of course I’m kidding folks – we all know that money doesn’t play any part in American or European politics.

Speaking of banking coin – our E-Mini campaign is doing pretty well at this point. I’ve moved my stop a bit above the break/even point now (i.e. 1.2R). I’m playing this campaign Heisenberg style as we may have a runner here – which means giving this plenty of room to stage a reversal before it takes off. And probably with good reason:

Once again some storm clouds on the GBP/JPY correlation – be prepared for a little courtesy shake out post our Memorial Day weekend. FWIW – I was coding all the way through – no idle time for this lowly Mole.

Here’s the hourly panel and it shows us some support courtesy of the 25-hour SMA. But I wouldn’t play that one right now – better opportunities on its brethren – and then some – roll up your sleeves as we have work to do!


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Have fun but keep it frosty!

Cheers,

Embrace The Pain

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

I just looked at my short term equities/forex correlations and things look mixed. The GBP/JPY is pushing up right now…

… while the EUR/JPY is dropping. As you probably can imagine the carry trade game is constantly evolving and this should be a good test as to whether the GBP/JPY remains relevant as we are pushing toward summer. Speaking of which – I can’t believe it’s almost summer, time is literally flying for me lately – way too busy…

The spoos currently butting against both SMAs – no idea as to whether they’ll push above. Too many gyrations lately and I am not very tempted to participate. Besides we have plenty of other (and easier) victims today.

A quick and stark reminder where we are right now – which is smack middle in the whipsaw zone. If we ever push above 1900 or drop below 1840 the resolution will be massive. Until that happens embrace the pain.

As I said we’ve got plenty of goodies this morning – here’s a freebie for you leeches. Platinum looking pretty good as a long near 1474 – stop would be below 1469.

Before I forget it – yes, it’s one of those days again. Yellen is scheduled for 2:00pm EDT and make sure you’re out of pretty much everything before she steps up to deliver her usual cryptic platitudes. FWIW I actually miss the Bernank – love or hate the guy but at least he didn’t come across as if he was completely out of his depth.

More irreverent ravings and juicy setups below the fold – please step into my lair:


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Good stuff today – unfortunately we have the 2:00pm whopper which only gives us about six hours to play with. Have fun but keep it frosty – this is not the tape you trifle with.

Cheers,

Running In Circles

If you think you are frustrated by the endless gyrations we see on the equities side then just imagine for a minute if you had to write about it every day. The past few weeks have not been fun and at best have served as an exercise in not yielding to emotions. But I’m only human and just like you I go through good and bad days. But perhaps that’s why I started this blog in the first place back in 2008. If nothing else it serves as a daily mirror as it forces me to confront whatever tape the market throws at me whilst living up to my own standards. Having an audience is rather unforgiving and inherently helps you to keep it real.

So let’s get to inconvenient truths. My NQ campaign is falling apart as I have been working my way backward. Which meant taking the second half R off the table at 3600 (the b/e point) and as it’s been dropping since this snapshot the other shoe is about to drop. I do actually like the formation here if you look at it objectively but don’t see a setup I would be comfortable taking.

On the Zero we are starting to see increasingly strong signals to the downside. Note how the push higher was rather tepid on the signal side (left panel). However I am still split on whether we are in a medium term sideways correction or if this is a long term top. Regardless my sentiment regarding taking entries here stands as I have expounded in the past week.

Also still clinging to my gold campaign although it is testing my patience. You recall that my stop remains below 1280 which I believe is well placed – thus far it’s been holding. I am considering a short if I get stopped out as we may see a stab lower. FWIW – this is a beautiful triangle formation with the 100-day SMA right in the middle.

On the ZB we actually touched 1R today and then pulled all the way back. Which means I’ll be closing this one out as well – actually I already did near my entry point. Enough monkey business for one day ;-)

Two more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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And that’s all I got for today. During sideways volatile periods like these it’s important that we reflect on our own emotions and attempt to not act instinctively. What we all are feeling right now is confusion and probably a good amount of frustration – which is usually a good sign that the market is ready to enter its next chapter. I know that’s what I said two weeks ago and in the meantime I have done my very best to keep us all out of traps and tribulations. Similarly it’s important to not force the issue and focus on high probabilty setups which promise a beneficial risk/reward ratio. As of right now there is little I like on the equities side but that may change any moment. In the meantime we simply watch and we wait. Even this shall pass…

Cheers,





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