Running In Circles

If you think you are frustrated by the endless gyrations we see on the equities side then just imagine for a minute if you had to write about it every day. The past few weeks have not been fun and at best have served as an exercise in not yielding to emotions. But I’m only human and just like you I go through good and bad days. But perhaps that’s why I started this blog in the first place back in 2008. If nothing else it serves as a daily mirror as it forces me to confront whatever tape the market throws at me whilst living up to my own standards. Having an audience is rather unforgiving and inherently helps you to keep it real.

So let’s get to inconvenient truths. My NQ campaign is falling apart as I have been working my way backward. Which meant taking the second half R off the table at 3600 (the b/e point) and as it’s been dropping since this snapshot the other shoe is about to drop. I do actually like the formation here if you look at it objectively but don’t see a setup I would be comfortable taking.

On the Zero we are starting to see increasingly strong signals to the downside. Note how the push higher was rather tepid on the signal side (left panel). However I am still split on whether we are in a medium term sideways correction or if this is a long term top. Regardless my sentiment regarding taking entries here stands as I have expounded in the past week.

Also still clinging to my gold campaign although it is testing my patience. You recall that my stop remains below 1280 which I believe is well placed – thus far it’s been holding. I am considering a short if I get stopped out as we may see a stab lower. FWIW – this is a beautiful triangle formation with the 100-day SMA right in the middle.

On the ZB we actually touched 1R today and then pulled all the way back. Which means I’ll be closing this one out as well – actually I already did near my entry point. Enough monkey business for one day ;-)

Two more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:


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And that’s all I got for today. During sideways volatile periods like these it’s important that we reflect on our own emotions and attempt to not act instinctively. What we all are feeling right now is confusion and probably a good amount of frustration – which is usually a good sign that the market is ready to enter its next chapter. I know that’s what I said two weeks ago and in the meantime I have done my very best to keep us all out of traps and tribulations. Similarly it’s important to not force the issue and focus on high probabilty setups which promise a beneficial risk/reward ratio. As of right now there is little I like on the equities side but that may change any moment. In the meantime we simply watch and we wait. Even this shall pass…

Cheers,

Well Positioned But Skeptical

I’m a bit on the fence when it comes to equities today. Although this morning’s NQ entry (or the one on the spoos if you weren’t a sub) played out very nicely thus far, I’m not convinced that this isn’t just yet another fake out spike before it turns on a dime again. So call me positioned in the right direction but skeptical – for now.

This is the general thorn in my eye and it’s also present on the EUR/JPY: a pretty juicy divergence which however has not managed to exert gravity just yet. FWIW – there’s nothing divergent on my ST volatility and momo charts.

And that’s where I got in as per this morning’s evil plan – 1/2R at the second touch of the IP trigger this morning and another 1/2R when it pushed above 3600. On the spoos it also was an IP and I proposed the second half R above 1880.

Speaking of which – seems like we’re back at the 100-hour SMA and that is where we’re currently running into a bit of resistance. Let’s see how the EOD plays out….

Nice setups today but since I don’t see you leeches being active I’ll keep them all for my intrepid subs ;-)


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Cheers,

Busy Groundhog Day Morning Briefing

Strange thing is happening to me – for the past few months I keep waking up every day and it’s the same tape over and over again. Maybe all that bad karma has finally caught up to me and I’m being punished for all the suffering I have inflicted over the years on the hapless souls who found themselves on the other side of my trades.

Favorite line – deja vu – I don’t think so, but I could check with the kitchen. Now seriously though – equities are bouncing based on who knows what and we’re back right where we’ve been dangling over and over again during the past few weeks:

The hourly Bollinger shows us pretty close to where we should expect a reversal. However, if there’s a breach across the recent highs – let’s say 1886 then this puppy may just muster up the mojo to power higher.

The TF is trailing the spoos but if we see a little drop before a punch higher then we may be able to get a nice entry here on the hourly. Long above 1106.7 with a stop below both ST SMAs.

We have a TON of setups this morning, so let’s get to it. Especially the EUR and Yen pairs are looking delicious this morning. Here’s the EUR/JPY which is a good long above 140.36’2 with a stop below 140.2.

NZD/JPY also a long right here – stop below 87.8 which is below the 25-hour SMA – we may see a retest.

There’s a lot more where that came from – please step into my lair:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





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