Well Positioned But Skeptical

I’m a bit on the fence when it comes to equities today. Although this morning’s NQ entry (or the one on the spoos if you weren’t a sub) played out very nicely thus far, I’m not convinced that this isn’t just yet another fake out spike before it turns on a dime again. So call me positioned in the right direction but skeptical – for now.

This is the general thorn in my eye and it’s also present on the EUR/JPY: a pretty juicy divergence which however has not managed to exert gravity just yet. FWIW – there’s nothing divergent on my ST volatility and momo charts.

And that’s where I got in as per this morning’s evil plan – 1/2R at the second touch of the IP trigger this morning and another 1/2R when it pushed above 3600. On the spoos it also was an IP and I proposed the second half R above 1880.

Speaking of which – seems like we’re back at the 100-hour SMA and that is where we’re currently running into a bit of resistance. Let’s see how the EOD plays out….

Nice setups today but since I don’t see you leeches being active I’ll keep them all for my intrepid subs ;-)


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Busy Groundhog Day Morning Briefing

Strange thing is happening to me – for the past few months I keep waking up every day and it’s the same tape over and over again. Maybe all that bad karma has finally caught up to me and I’m being punished for all the suffering I have inflicted over the years on the hapless souls who found themselves on the other side of my trades.

Favorite line – deja vu – I don’t think so, but I could check with the kitchen. Now seriously though – equities are bouncing based on who knows what and we’re back right where we’ve been dangling over and over again during the past few weeks:

The hourly Bollinger shows us pretty close to where we should expect a reversal. However, if there’s a breach across the recent highs – let’s say 1886 then this puppy may just muster up the mojo to power higher.

The TF is trailing the spoos but if we see a little drop before a punch higher then we may be able to get a nice entry here on the hourly. Long above 1106.7 with a stop below both ST SMAs.

We have a TON of setups this morning, so let’s get to it. Especially the EUR and Yen pairs are looking delicious this morning. Here’s the EUR/JPY which is a good long above 140.36’2 with a stop below 140.2.

NZD/JPY also a long right here – stop below 87.8 which is below the 25-hour SMA – we may see a retest.

There’s a lot more where that came from – please step into my lair:


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Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Draghi just spiked the Euro (no change in current ECB rates) but equities have been uncharacteristically quiet through it all. However looking at the ST panel this morning I asked myself a rhetorical question – ‘do I really want to trade this?’ As you may have guessed the answer was a resounding no. The beast is running like a hare and there is no reliable technical context. Best to hunker down and wait for better market weather.

Bonds – the 30-year just triggered my long here actually and my stop is below 135’25 to weather out any wild gyrations. As the saying goes – just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get me ;-)

Wheat – not ready for the plucking just yet but I do like this formation and would be long on a touch of that diagonal. Right now that would be around 730.6ish. Stop will be placed below the 100-hour – no recent tests of that one but it did provide support a few days back.

Not much else going on this morning – things are pretty wild out there and capital preservation as well as idiocy prevention remain our prime directives. See you guys this afternoon.

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