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Full Steam Ahead

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September 18, 2017

Full Steam Ahead

Trading volume in the S&P 500 has finally been on the increase after what amounted to a pretty sleepy August. However as always when looking under the hood I am seeing a few disconnects that are worth noting. For one effective participation in the E-Mini as shown on our Zero indicator remains minimal, suggesting that the ratio of executed shares vs. the number of transactions may be high.

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Dead Cat Dollar Bounce

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August 22, 2017

Dead Cat Dollar Bounce

I wish it wasn’t so but every single campaign I am currently holding or considering as an entry is tied to the greenback, at least to some extent. This unfortunately is the state of affairs in the age of perpetual quantitive easing, which over the past decade has become the primary purveyor of perceived growth and the number one determinant of market direction. Cut off the easy money injections and down goes the market, simple. Everyone knows it and the longer this drags out the more violent the patient is expected to respond when finally forced to face cold turkey.

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Lost A Few Pounds

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August 21, 2017

Lost A Few Pounds

It seems like we were subjected to an enforced trading diet late Friday, and apparently it’s working since as you can see my abs are starting to show. By the way, sorry if you just lost your breakfast. Obviously this isn’t a big surprise to anyone as fast drops/advances *ahead of medium or long term inflection points* usually are quickly followed by a shake out. Pay attention now as this is important: Especially on the sell side the dynamics shift considerably once those inflection points have been breached, as violent selling usually tapers out more slowly before a bounce.

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Summertime

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July 24, 2017

Summertime

Alright, it’s time to talk about the ole’ greenback. Which, in case you haven’t been paying attention whilst increasing your odds of skin cancer at some overpriced beach resort, has been dropping rather precipitously since the beginning of the year. You may counter that a correction was long overdue since the Dollar has had a pretty good run over the past two years. And you would be technically correct – in relative terms compared with everything else the Dollar has been on a solid run since mid 2014. But in real purchasing power today’s Dollar is a whopping 27% weaker than when Will Smith’s big hit was hitting the charts in the summer of 2002.

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