The Outer Limits

So where are back from whence we came and I hope you enjoyed the ride. I know – who am I kidding – it’s been a rough month and let’s hope that April will not only bring us better weather but also put us into a less devious market phase. So let’s see where we’re at on the equities side:

It’s getting interesting as we now have reached the outer limits of the current whipsaw zone. No, there is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical.

Literally that is – I’m not sure there is much left on the vertical but that was a nice jump in four days. If we push above 1880 then the momentum may again propel us higher in the stair step fashion we have have seen lately. Also don’t forget that SPX 1880 will switch our P&F back into bullish mode.

Also rather compelling right now is that the VIX is starting to drop below a pretty pronounced support line. And that may herald a new low volatility period that gets us back to the 12 mark or below. OR it may be that we are dropping from here. Unfortunately I don’t see a price pattern to get us into a position right now. At least on the equities side.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t have any fun, does it? Here’s crude which I very much liked this morning and happily pimped to my subscribers. I got filled short near 101 and it’s been one wild ride ever since. Have taken partial profits but will keep 50% in the running for a touch of daily support near 99.1. And if you weren’t a sub – well then you probably missed out ;-)

On a totally different note – you recall my write up on market phases the other day. Here’s a chart that should do two things for you – demonstrate two very distinct market periods for one. And then also drive home the point that mean reversion does not always happen, especially on the Forex and futures side. So if you trade expecting platykurtotic markets you will get burned, just a matter of time. Always know which market phase you are in and that also means looking at volatility. I and Scott have written about this rather exhaustively, go hunt it down – the search box is your friend.

We have a lot of setups tonight – here’s a freebie: Bond futures – the 10-year is at NLSL support but is also painting an RTV-S. I want to be short here with the trend if the NLSL triggers tomorrow.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – please join me in the lair:


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Cheers,

April Fools Day Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

This morning we’ve got a bit of turbulence on the map around 10:00am EDT when the ISM manufacturing data is being released. This will affect equities as well as any USD pairs – watch your behind.

Equities have been steaming ahead but not giving us much context – that sometimes happens but it cannot be helped. If you are already long or are looking for a way to get in then focus on the 25-hour SMA which at this point seems to be the pushing price higher.

Things look a bit more juicy on the TF side (Russell futures) and I am considering a long once that expiring NLSL meets its own 25-hour SMA. Entry would be near 1168.1 – stop below the SMA.

Bonds are again on a downside trajectory and I want to be long on a retest of the NLBL at 132’29. Stop would be above the 25-hour, which unfortunately is only providing soft context at this point.


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Friday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Equities have been holding soft support in accordance to the level of participation I observed in yesterday’s session. No guarantees or reason to jump to conclusions but things are looking a bit more positive as of right now. The TF is currently plotting above its 25-hour and an hourly NLSL – so far so good (for the bulls that is). As you recall I currently do not have a dog in this fight as I closed out near the EOD per my campaign rules.

Setups – quite a bit of activity on the Forex front this morning. Here’s the USD/CAD which I expect to continue its current ST trend lower. My entries are on the chart (the opposite entry representing my respective stop). A long is possible here as we have very good context courtesy of the 25-hour SMA.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – please step into my lair:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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