Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

So the GBP/JPY is painting a pretty distinct divergence right now. Not a reason to grab long positions but it’s an early warning sign that we may see a bounce today.

The conditions are favorable for a dead cat bounce at least – here’s the hourly SPX cash. As you can see it’s managed to hold the 100-hour SMA as I previously suggested. The SMA is still rising however and that puts the onus on the bulls to stave off further selling. Even if we see a push higher today however there is still the possibility for it turning into a dead cat bounce. We’ll have to closely monitor the internals today – so keep an eye on the Zero Lite for divergences and early signs of monkey business.

Here’s the hourly spoos in the context of my BBs – we’re somewhere in the mid of nowhere right now. What’s interesting is the tentative rising diagonal it’s producing. We may see a quick stab lower near the open to scare out some of the children – I don’t think the bulls are in real trouble until below ES 1916.

But we have work to do this morning, so let’s get rolling. Here’s crude which looks like a good buy above 107.39. Stop below 107 – and I mean below, don’t tack it right there.

EUR/CAD – attempt to paint a floor and although we may see a retest of that NLSL I want to be long above that 100-hour SMA.

If you weren’t a sub last week then you may be experiencing a pounding pressure in your cranium. May I suggest a dose of Excedrin – Oberyn Martell strongly recommends it.┬áLess invasive (home-grown organic) treatment available below the fold:


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Cheers,

P.S.: No skulls were crushed during the production of this post.

Monday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our Monday morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Equities still holding strong this morning and a pop above ES 1923.5 probably leads us higher. The 25-hour SMA has now been well established as support and if we breach it it’s possible we gain some traction for a visit of the 100-hour SMA.

Gold – also following the 25-hour but to the downside. Here I want to be short with a stop above 1250. From there a long is possible but I probably wouldn’t take it as the 100-hour is a bit over 5 handles away. I may change my mind if we get a very small trigger candle and an entry pattern I can’t refuse.

GBP/CAD – it’s just overcame its 100-hour for the second time and if it drops just a bit more I am long with a stop below 1.8179.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs – please join me in the lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,

Escape Velocity

In physics, escape velocity is the speed at which the kinetic energy plus the gravitational potential energy of an object is zero. It is the speed needed to ‘break free’ from the gravitational attraction of a massive body, without further propulsion. Now if you apply this concept to the current situation in equities then it’s easy to see the gravity well that’s been holding our butts inside this year’s sideways churn zone from hell:

I’ve pointing at this volume profile chart for weeks now and for a good reason. Every time we get near the edges we get pulled back in. Manna from heaven for skilled swing traders but a bit exhausting for anyone waiting for this thing to pick a direction. I frankly couldn’t care less as I’m drowning in setups today but as you guys are hell bent on playing equities I’ll be Huckleberry.

However I have to concede that we are looking good on the equities front. I mean come on – a small inside day candle near upside resistance, that’s the stuff we’ve been waiting for. I did expect a little shake out, yes – but quite frankly I didn’t expect it to be this little.

Same setup on the YM – almost identical. FWIW – I won’t be taking either of them as I have two with better context. Unfortunately for you leeches those I’ll reserve for my loyal subs :-P

I won’t be an Unmensch however, so here’s gold which I think is painting awesome context and now we’ve got an inside candle to get us positioned. Either direction on that IP candle is looking good IMNSHO.

USD/CAD – you’ve got two options on this sucker. Either long courtesy of that shooting star (which we would like to fail if it’s not too much to ask) or long above that NLSL. Maybe we’ll have to play both to get positioned. And yes, although the downside cannot be ruled out I think that the upside would be the easier play. As you know I like my victims in prime condition and ready for the plucking.

Alright, quite a bit more where this came from – please step into my lovely spring lair:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

So, did I promise too much? Didn’t think so! And on top of all that I managed to finish testing the new CrazyIvan release which will be deployed tonight. Very excited about that and I hope everything is going to run smooth.

Cheers,





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