Tuesday Morning Briefing

The inside day Mole posted earlier for USDCAD just triggered, and I took a glance at the 30 min chart, which shows we have an extended period of low volatility culminating in an extreme low volatility. At the first sign of a volatility uptick this is going to turn into a VERY tradable market. When volatility rises after an extended low period, everything technical works like magic. Inside periods on 15, 30, and 60 min, hammer candles (if the move is up, shooting star candles if the move is down).

In fact any of the Crazy Ivan Setups are worth taking as soon as volatility kicks in.¬†As a sensitive measure of volatility I recommend Standard Deviation or Bollinger Bandwidth. If you don’t have those on your trading platform load a bollinger (2,25 or 2,20) and look for a squeeze situation. John Carters TTM Squeeze indicator is good for this also.

In other news the short setup on equities I posted is officially dead on the ES. It has also triggered a fakeout buy setup, as below. If you are looking to take this it would be perfectly acceptable to wait and see a market hours open print above the daily high before getting long. We have had several losing trades in a row on equities, so take it with a grain of salt and a small position size, if at all.

And on a personal note I’d like to say that summer tape sucks ass.

Scott

Time To Say Hello Again

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

As you recall our RTV-S on the daily NQ was closed out without prejudice last evening as it had not produced 1R at the conclusion of the third candle. It was time to say goodbye – but today we are back in the game via two opposing but concurrent setups: There’s an RTV-S and a GARB-L on the ES – so either way this thing finally breaks we should be good to go. Unfortunately there is a bit of congestion on either side as we have Net-Lines blocking the way at almost identical distances (about five handles away). Even if we get an entry today we’ll have to deal with additional hurdles sometime next week – assuming of course the entries resolve this far.

GBP/AUD – the hourly has now breached two colliding SMAs and that’s rather bullish. Thus I feel compelled to be long here with a stop below both (~1.662).

In case you missed it – crude triggered an RTV-S at 105.46 on Wednesday and today it just dropped through a NLSL at 105.11. This is a great setup and if it pulls back a little you may still find an entry. Someone in a prior thread also suggested that it’s a H&S and after some consideration I tend to agree. Either way it’s a sweet setup.

But my favorite setup today is silver – as it looks interesting on the hourly and monthly at the same time. What – say again, Mole? That’s right – please step into my air conditioned summer lair:


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Cheers,

Thursday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Unfortunately the RTV-S on the daily seems to be dying a slow death as a strong buyer has positioned himself near the 3030 mark (easy number to remember I guess). Well, we do have an inside day entry and that’s what I would focus on right now. Of course there is no reason to abandon any short positions until our 3,057.25 stop has been touched. One trade at a time. Of course 3,057.25 is also our long trigger. You can also play the hourly via the 100-hour, which continues to be retested – but once again that buyer at 3030 seems to be determined to keep a lid on any bearishness.

On the YM we do actually have a daily Net-Line Sell Level (NLSL) breach. But I have an inkling that the 25-hour and thus the NLSL will be retested again today.


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Cheers,





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