Drop The Baseline

Having been on the road until Tuesday I just realized that we’re heading into a long weekend. I suspect most of you are already on the way out or won’t catch this before Sunday night. So let’s dive right in:

The VIX Buy signal we triggered on Tuesday seems to be proceeding nicely. Worth noting is the fact that we have rapidly descended back toward a baseline near VIX 13.5 which only recently was breached. That’s quite a volatility squeeze and if you were caught with puts (and even calls) near the bottom and didn’t get out then your premiums aren’t worth jack at this point.

On the spoos we are heading toward a NLBL which represents our first technical hurdle. Nothing else to see here…

Our GBP/JPY correlation seems to be supportive – it’s served us well again this week.

My YM entry this morning has paid off very handsomely and I’m taking it off the table now as we’re touching a NLBL on the daily panel. Good chance for a little shake out here.

I know it’s a long weekend and all but I actually ran into some very nice setups. Please join me in the lair:


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Per today’s theme I’m kicking off your Easter weekend in style by dropping a real bassline:

And another one – as it’s a three day weekend – wohoo!

Make sure no pets or younglings are nearby then grab a cold one and crank these suckers up. Wishing you all a fabulous weekend – see you guys next Monday!

Cheers,

So Far So Good

This morning’s entry on the NQ has already paid off as we just crossed the 1R mark a few minutes ago. Actually I had to go back and retook a snapshot of my charts but was happy to do so. Now as you know per the rules we have to close above the 1R mark – if not then we need to close out EOD.

Here are the respective levels and I even added one tick to the top of bottom which is something we ought to be doing in order to assure proper risk management. As you can see the 1R mark is at 3581.8 and if we close above it then put your stop right there. If not then close out and call it an easy peesy R earned in just a few hours :-)

The general context is looking more bullish again – we just busted through the 100-hour SMA as well as the 100-day and a NLSL we breached last Friday. If it can keep this up then the bulls may just pull this thing out of the mud. However, we cannot dismiss the fact that we are still plotting lower highs and lower lows on the NQ – until that changes the bears still have a good shot at dragging it lower.

Update on our AUD/USD campaign – good news: We just breached the 2R point and that means we are putting our stop right there at the EOD. Once again – should we drop back and close below it then that will be the end of this campaign.

Finally an update on the NG campaign – it managed to crawl its way above the 1R mark and it’s starting to look pretty good. Move your stop to 4,555 and that’s all for this one.

A few more goodies below the fold for my subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Now that should keep you guys occupied for a while – have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,

That’s How We Roll

While you leeches have been picking your noses or worse the Mole has been banking coin like a Goldman. Seriously – this shouldn’t be so easy! I sincerely hope some of the subs have been paying attention. Let’s catch up with some of our recent victims:

This morning’s short on the spoos below the daily NLBL didn’t last long – fortunately in my foresight (and lack of allegiance) I had my flippidy-flop already set and have been long since 1840.75. We are marking 1R at 1851.5 BUT I won’t be playing this one Crazy Ivan style – we’ve just busted through a weekly NLBL and I intend to leave my ISL intact for now. The idea here is to play for an outlier (i.e. short squeeze) and thus employ a Heisenberg style campaign management. That leaves us taking 25% profits at 1.2R – which we barely missed today. THEN and only then can we move our stop to break/even (i.e. one tick below my entry = 1840.5).

Next – gold – oh boy – that hammer already banked us nearly an R in less than a session. I’m going to hold this one until that monthly NLBL at 1361.8. If you feel like it then you can start taking partial profits – perhaps take 50% off and move your stop to b/e.

But we are not done just yet – wait for it – sugar! Remember we banked 1R last Friday and it had the courtesy to not stop us out at the 1R point. Now I’m going to switch this bugger over to Heisenberg style campaign management. After pushing near 5R today we are now have a trailing stop at ~1R MFE. That means from now on your stop will always be 0.25 handles (i.e. 25 ticks) below the very high. Right now that is 17.42 and I may as well be stopped out by the time you read this. But if it keeps running – who knows where it can go!

That’s right – that’s how we roll here at Evil Speculator. You can keep wasting time trying to predict where the SPX will be by next April or you can do what we do – simply find look for high probability setups and develop campaign management rules that maximize your opportunities. Most retail traders analyze the market in order to predict prices – which is a complete and utter waste of time.

This remains to be the one salient fact retail is unable to wrap its mind around: Predicting prices has little to do with successful trading. What is important is determining when the risk is overwhelmingly in your favor and then controlling that risk via carefully developed campaign management rules. And that is exactly what we are doing – and apparently it is working.

Now here are two more goodies for my intrepid subs:


More charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don't waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber you get free access to all Gold posts, which gives you double the bang for your buck!

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
  1. recent misdeeds

    1. Drop The Baseline
    2. Lazy Thursday Morning Briefing
    3. Back In The Thick Of It
    4. The Squeeze Is On!
    5. Return Of The Market Mole
    6. We have a potential long setup here, but it sucks
    7. Start of the week
    8. Scott’s market update
    9. TARDIS Trading Techniques
    10. Thursday Morning Briefing
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