Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.


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Cheers,

Drop The Baseline

Having been on the road until Tuesday I just realized that we’re heading into a long weekend. I suspect most of you are already on the way out or won’t catch this before Sunday night. So let’s dive right in:

The VIX Buy signal we triggered on Tuesday seems to be proceeding nicely. Worth noting is the fact that we have rapidly descended back toward a baseline near VIX 13.5 which only recently was breached. That’s quite a volatility squeeze and if you were caught with puts (and even calls) near the bottom and didn’t get out then your premiums aren’t worth jack at this point.

On the spoos we are heading toward a NLBL which represents our first technical hurdle. Nothing else to see here…

Our GBP/JPY correlation seems to be supportive – it’s served us well again this week.

My YM entry this morning has paid off very handsomely and I’m taking it off the table now as we’re touching a NLBL on the daily panel. Good chance for a little shake out here.

I know it’s a long weekend and all but I actually ran into some very nice setups. Please join me in the lair:


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Per today’s theme I’m kicking off your Easter weekend in style by dropping a real bassline:

And another one – as it’s a three day weekend – wohoo!

Make sure no pets or younglings are nearby then grab a cold one and crank these suckers up. Wishing you all a fabulous weekend – see you guys next Monday!

Cheers,

So Far So Good

This morning’s entry on the NQ has already paid off as we just crossed the 1R mark a few minutes ago. Actually I had to go back and retook a snapshot of my charts but was happy to do so. Now as you know per the rules we have to close above the 1R mark – if not then we need to close out EOD.

Here are the respective levels and I even added one tick to the top of bottom which is something we ought to be doing in order to assure proper risk management. As you can see the 1R mark is at 3581.8 and if we close above it then put your stop right there. If not then close out and call it an easy peesy R earned in just a few hours :-)

The general context is looking more bullish again – we just busted through the 100-hour SMA as well as the 100-day and a NLSL we breached last Friday. If it can keep this up then the bulls may just pull this thing out of the mud. However, we cannot dismiss the fact that we are still plotting lower highs and lower lows on the NQ – until that changes the bears still have a good shot at dragging it lower.

Update on our AUD/USD campaign – good news: We just breached the 2R point and that means we are putting our stop right there at the EOD. Once again – should we drop back and close below it then that will be the end of this campaign.

Finally an update on the NG campaign – it managed to crawl its way above the 1R mark and it’s starting to look pretty good. Move your stop to 4,555 and that’s all for this one.

A few more goodies below the fold for my subs:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Now that should keep you guys occupied for a while – have fun but keep it frosty.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
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