Escape Velocity

In physics, escape velocity is the speed at which the kinetic energy plus the gravitational potential energy of an object is zero. It is the speed needed to ‘break free’ from the gravitational attraction of a massive body, without further propulsion. Now if you apply this concept to the current situation in equities then it’s easy to see the gravity well that’s been holding our butts inside this year’s sideways churn zone from hell:

I’ve pointing at this volume profile chart for weeks now and for a good reason. Every time we get near the edges we get pulled back in. Manna from heaven for skilled swing traders but a bit exhausting for anyone waiting for this thing to pick a direction. I frankly couldn’t care less as I’m drowning in setups today but as you guys are hell bent on playing equities I’ll be Huckleberry.

However I have to concede that we are looking good on the equities front. I mean come on – a small inside day candle near upside resistance, that’s the stuff we’ve been waiting for. I did expect a little shake out, yes – but quite frankly I didn’t expect it to be this little.

Same setup on the YM – almost identical. FWIW – I won’t be taking either of them as I have two with better context. Unfortunately for you leeches those I’ll reserve for my loyal subs :-P

I won’t be an Unmensch however, so here’s gold which I think is painting awesome context and now we’ve got an inside candle to get us positioned. Either direction on that IP candle is looking good IMNSHO.

USD/CAD – you’ve got two options on this sucker. Either long courtesy of that shooting star (which we would like to fail if it’s not too much to ask) or long above that NLSL. Maybe we’ll have to play both to get positioned. And yes, although the downside cannot be ruled out I think that the upside would be the easier play. As you know I like my victims in prime condition and ready for the plucking.

Alright, quite a bit more where this came from – please step into my lovely spring lair:


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So, did I promise too much? Didn’t think so! And on top of all that I managed to finish testing the new CrazyIvan release which will be deployed tonight. Very excited about that and I hope everything is going to run smooth.

Cheers,

Looking A Bit Iffy There

As Europe is enjoying the last day of a four day Easter weekend I expected a slow session across the front. But there are subtle signs that we may be looking at a short term correction later this week. As I’m still on excessive coding duty with several hours of testing ahead tonight allow me to make this one quick and snappy:

For one we are pushing higher but DVOL is exceeding UVOL on the NYSEL today. On its own I would probably dismiss it for some Easter holiday monkey business.

But there’s also a divergence on the VIX:VXO ratio suggesting that market makers are lifting premiums a little near the money. Could suggest a down day or two.

There is technical context that would support it after all – the best one is on the YM right now near the NLBL at 16,384 – we have been pinned below it thus far. The spoos are looking similar but we have a few more ticks until we reach the NLBL on that chart. I think a long breach on the YM would probably negate the concerns mentioned above – definitely would have to go with price.

Wheat update – if you took that one then you’re over 1R in the green at this point – congrats! Put your stop at 670/75 and keep her in the running – unless of course we close above it today, in which case the campaign ends.

Crude is looking pretty good here as we’ve got an NR4 (narrowest range in four days), an IP, and an RTV-S. So pick your poison. Admittedly a long here would be my favorite as the downside potential appears to be limited.


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Cheers,

The Squeeze Is On!

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Looks like the squeeze is on – equity futures have continued to rip higher overnight and the E-Mini is now facing the 25-day SMA which admittedly has only soft context based on prior interactions. We are a bit in limbo here on the ST side so I wouldn’t suggest any pertinent entries this morning.

Here’s one for the leeches though – EUR/CHF – very nice floor pattern and it’s now trying to pop over a NLBL. I’m long here with a stop below the two SMAs – pretty solid support if it decides to retest.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs…


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On all these setups I strongly encourage you use our futures and forex risk calculators – limit your exposure to 1% maximum. If you don’t understand the concept of risk, i.e. R, then I suggest you point your browser here.

Cheers,





    Zero Indicator
  1. recent misdeeds

    1. Thursday Morning Briefing
    2. Escape Velocity
    3. Get Ready For The Whipsaw And Squeeze
    4. Equity Curve Trading With Crazy Ivan
    5. Looking A Bit Iffy There
    6. Kicking Off This Week
    7. Drop The Baseline
    8. Lazy Thursday Morning Briefing
    9. Back In The Thick Of It
    10. The Squeeze Is On!
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