Is It Summer Already?

Temperatures over here in Spain are slowly crawling higher and the locals are busy preparing for the annual onslaught of UV deprived Northern Europeans (and a few Americans as well). Down here at the lair air massive air conditioning units are running in overdrive as my charting/reasoning abilities degrade inversely with every degree Celsius higher on the scale. There has been very little activity here yesterday and the tape did its best to keep everyone bothering to pay attention bored to tears.

However when the bus is empty it often winds up picking up speed. Although I’m getting concerned on a medium to long term basis equity futures are looking solid here on a short term. If you are ever looking for a textbook example of a clean diagonal with nicely separated touch points then look no further than the E-Mini futures today. If I don’t wind up heading to the beach or gym then I will probably grab a long position if we retest that diagonal.

What I like about it in particular is that the 25-hour is merging with it right now and that gives us dual support. Put your stop a handle below and don’t play more than 1/2R – if it pops it’ll be worth the hassle. However if we wind up gyrating sideways again don’t waste your time – you’ll probably get a pretty good idea of where we’re heading in the first hour of the NYSE session. If in doubt consult the Zero indicator, which by the way was flatlining most of yesterday.

The NQ dons a similar pattern and although I would follow the ES it may be worthwhile to split your 1/2R between those two. It’s always good to see those two get into alignment when things are looking bullish.

EUR/USD – I’m going to play a tiny position here (1/4R) with a stop below the recent low. It’s a speculative entry – a bit of a lottery ticket based on an early formation. Those patterns either take off like gangbusters or die in their cradle – we should know soon.

Believe it or not the damn ATM here in Valencia has starting to print derogatory Dollar jokes on my paper receipts. We expats get no respect over here!

A few more Forex goodies waiting below the fold – please step into my lair:


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Have fun but keep it frosty – also expect low participation tape banging which means don’t be too stingy with setting your stops.

Cheers,

Way Too Many Setups!

That’s right – you read that right. Way too many setups today! Germany is leading Portugal 4:0 right now and I would rather be watching the game right now. Sometimes I myself cannot fathom the sacrifices I’m willing to make for you guys. In case you have no idea what I’m talking about – you must be either American or living in a cave. Just so happens the rest of the world is watching the world cup (football) right now – call your Latino friend if you have one, he’ll explain it to you.

So let’s get to it – we have a ton of charts to chew through:

The spoos are attempting a run after scaring the children one more time (as predicted this morning). It’s looking good right now but unless that 100-hour gives way nothing happens.

Here’s the SPX cash – as you can see we already triggered an IP-L – we may also paint a hammer today which would be a good long play. Soylent Orange is still in play but we have to see how forceful the run higher will be – assuming it materializes.

I meant to keep this one for the subs but they’ll be spoiled enough today so here we go. Beautiful double hammer on the YM – good support below in form of the 25-day SMA. I prefer this one instead of the spoos.

Platinum – I must be insane giving this one away. BEAUTIFUL shooting start slash inside day right on top of the 100-day SMA. Also lines up nicely with the recent lows. Amazing setup and not one to be missed.

Okay, one more – we have plenty to spare today: NZD/JPY – RTV-L as well as IP-S. Either way looks peachy.

Quite a bit more below for my intrepid subs:


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Did I promise too much? That ought to keep you guys occupied for a while :-)

4:0 Deutschland gegen Portugal. Vielen Dank Hummels und Müller, gut gemacht Jungs!!

Cheers,

Wednesday Morning Briefing

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Some of you asked me about the carry trade correlations yesterday and here’s the GDP/JPY which I mostly follow over the past few months (since economic data suggested a strengthening of the GB economy). Anyway, it’s been treating us well but has been starkly pointing down since yesterday – quite a divergence there and it’s currently continuing down after a brief push higher. So this is a bit concerning.

As you can see the SPX cash managed to hold the 25-hour yesterday but given what I’m seeing on the spoos right now this may change in today’s session.

Here’s where we were about 20 minutes ago and unless this is just an attempt to scare the children we’re probably going to revisit 1934. Make sure you bring a top hat Evil Speculator style. Once again watching the Zero for clues of continuation lower this morning should be good medicine – look for signal divergence or confirmation.

AUD/JPY is going on my watch list – it’s knocking on its 100-hour SMA and we don’t have enough evidence yet to risk a long position. Let’s see if it can do a bit of testing here – perhaps even a little scare via a push below followed by a recovery. I want to trade a continuation here if it gives me the right signals.

More below for my intrepid subs:


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Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Cheers,





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