The recent announcement of Apple’s iPad ruffled some feathers at the evil lair:
No wonder AAPL has been tanking lately – Adolf has launched a new Blitzkrieg against Jobs’ HQ in Cupertino. I just came back from the Bay Area and I must tell you – it’s nothing but blood and tears up there. And rain, of course there’s that never ending sulfuric rain. It’s like a scene out of Code of Duty – World At War – only with a Starbucks with free WiFi on every corner.
Tim Knight is MIA – rumor has it that he is hiding in his nuke proof bunker with a five year supply of MREs, several cases of Dom Perignon, and a lifetime subscription to vivid.com. Unfortunately his bulk order of toilet paper didn’t make it through the front lines – probably not a pretty picture down there.
I need to run and upgrade the laser canons on my genetically modified sharks. Not sure I have time to post charts later today as I’m pinned down under sniper fire. Fortunately I speak German – fools them every time
Okay, I’ve wasted as much time as I can stand trying to embed this video into the page (apparently WordPress won’t cheapwad guest-posters who are not paying for their own account; who has time to for that?)
Michael Davey again – that’s right, the guy who comes on here and beats a dead horse, saying yet again that the bigger waves in a market move (down in this case) are more worthy of attention than the retracements (as in the counter-bounce we’re still waiting to see).
Consider only this, as you sit back and enjoy the weekend.
-Corrections fall faster that advances rise (and with more energy).
-Big moves in a market surprise nearly everyone in terms of magnitude.
-We are still young into this decline and there has yet to be any serious crash-type panic or dramatic wash-out volume; the fact that there has been a succession of down-only days is nothing bullish, or indicative of am imminent bounce.
-Participants have woken up to the fact that something is wrong, and yet nearly everyone has focused more on where a market might be bounce, where and what might be good to buy and and what higher level might be good to sell or short – very few are out there calling for selling here and now (even though selling here and now has been working for several sessions in a row).
-Bears who fought and fought for months are talking about why and where we should bounce. somehow most of them priced themselves out of this move.
-If you think sentiment is getting extreme and that means the market should bounce now on Monday…well, maybe it will…but understand that fresh moves downward which end the weekly badly have set up for dramatic down-Monday’s in the past. Everyone turning negative suddenly, at this juncture in the move, is a negative in my book (the market can in fact sell-off when everyone is suddenly selling; shocking as that seems). This is a negative at the moment, not positive.
-Monday’s have been far and away the most positive day for the market since the March lows. Therefore, Monday next week should be a good chance for a bounce, right?
-Well, sure to that last point, unless something has changed now in the rally from the March lows. If something has changed, then Monday could teach us a little about drama (and impress upon us that nothing yet had been very dramatic, if you get my drift).
Otherwise, sure, I would expect a bounce then on Monday.
Oh, I’m not done. I want to reiterate some tidbits from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, courtesy of Randomwalker commenting in the previous post. However, I still need him to clarify something for me, so for the meantime I’ll let you go (and edit it in here later). Just understand that history shows that down January’s can hurt, regardless of what CNBC is trying to spin.
In the meantime, I have some visual entertainment, on the subject of riding energy. Gravity is a beast – ride it like you mean it!
Obama finds that the tides don’t listen to his beautiful speaking voice. Foreclosures are being forecast to reach 3 mm in 2010 vs 282 mm in 2009 – remembering that banks are doing whatever they can NOT to foreclose and have to mark to market. .Gov assistance programs are ending. Debt loads remain high, and unemployment continues to take a toll. Delinquencies are rising sharply. Meanwhile, Moody’s says that the economy will die if .gov measures are withdrawn too quickly (read “at all” into that). I’m getting awfully tired of all these apocryptic warnings. Can’t “they” see the economic wasteland that is already all around us?
Meanwhile, the AIG hearings are showing that apparently no one was in charge even though Financial Armageddon was the expected outcome. Further, the mysterious NY FED was the source of an email lamenting that they would be unable to keep things secret from Congress due to the sheer number of fingers in the pie. TIck. Tock. Tick. Tock.
Asia was red. Europe is GREEN *(except for Switzerland – how’s that CHF doing? Looks stronger. We have a correlation!) . The DAX is putting in a floor with apparent overhead resistance at 5600. All sectors are green except Telecom. This suggests an up day initially for the SPX. The green is between 1% and 2%, so not too shabby.
This is the last trading day of the month, but portfolio window-dressing is already done. Today could be a low volume tug-of-war, it seems. Volumes on the ES have been accelerating since the start of the year and are up around 3.0 mm per day (24 hour less lock up). SPX volumes remain subdued.
Yesterday, the SPX put a pin down through the 1086 floor – and closed blow it. TD Pressure says that today should be an up day as it crosses back above the oversold signal line. I’m more interested in the 5 DMA and how it has pushed SPX down. IMO, for an up day to hold and mean something, SPX would need to close above the 5 DMA – which right now is at 1092.55. The “Since AUg 17″ trend line is overhead at 1104ish, and the 50 DMA is still tracking flat at around 1114 – 1114.50 (our upper resistance level from eye-balling the chart).
ES gentle wound its way down until around 1 AM and has since, gently, retraced its way back up to the highs of the session. It looks like a “normal” overnight market with sellers dominating earlier, and buyers coming back in later – but no reindeer games. In this type of market, cyclic TA seems to work well, and we have a bullish cross on the 9 and 34 pMA on the 5 min ES chart. TD pressure has indicated a low risk buy at these levels, with pre-cautionary stop around 1079. I notice that this is just below the 34 pMA and a TD support level at 1080ish. If 1079 is penetrated decisively, then price exhaustion would become active down to 1074.50. Given the bullish cross, and TD pressure – that is a big IF. Pivots:
R2: 1115 = would put SPX above the 1114 ceiling. Not impossible, but not likely, IMO.
R1: 1097 = Certainly would put SPX above the 5 DMA. Looks like it’s in the area of a lot of “peaking” activity over the last 5 trading days.
Neutral: 1085.75 = Put a stop to the rally into the close yesterday. Looks like ES wants to make it a base camp for an assault on R1. Not there yet though – and there is good resistance at this level. This is also above a lower trend line on the 4hr ES chart, beginning Aug 18 (With a touch Nov 2nd and 3rd, a near touch Oct 2nd, Sep 2nd). So far that trend line is holding, unlike the one on the daily chart.
S1: 1068 = Site of the turnaround of the dip from late Nomember. Was also resistance back in the second half of September.
S2: 1056.50 = The gates to the abyss?
Not much to say here. DXY is moving up, CAD is neutral, JPY, EUR, GBP are mildly weaker. Financial leaders in Europe are still telling us that a strong USD is in the best interests of everyone (who wants toilet paper in their wallet), and that Greece is not an issue. That’s twice they’ve denied it. Third time, and……. I’d worry more about California’s debt.
Bernanke hearing gets past cloture. Does the icy pain of betrayal by one’s elected officials ever grow numb?
The PBOC is worried about inflation – now that they have let it out of the cage, it refuse to behave and they are finding it difficult to “manage the economy”. Who knew?
Bankers are bitter at the absence of their annual wine-tasting in Davos and plot long sober hours on how to bring .gov back to heel.
US GDP is expected to be driven by factory output, even as commodities are expected to fall.
Greek bond yields come back in showing an improvement in confidence that there will be no bailout.
The Gates-es do some more good and pledge $10 bb for vaccines for the poorest nations. Future consumers have to come from somewhere, he said cynically.
Today is GDP and all the attendant sub-data at 8:30AM EST. 4.7% is expected vs 2.2% prior. Do you know why the saying is ” Buy the rumour, Sell the news”? It’s because traders /gamblers take a position based on their expectations of what the data point will show. When the data comes out, they close their position for a gain or loss. There is a built-in bias to the upside on the saying as well.
Note that Personal consumption is expected to be down to 1.8% from 2.8% prior (and yet GDP is supposed to double? – sure looks like a lot of inventory building is expected).
We also have these two little sleeper items:
08:15 FRB Vice Chair Kohn on bank interest rate exposure
I got an email from the FED saying that they bought $12 bb of MBS in the last week, $12.5 bb gross – which suggests pre-payments of about $0.5 bb in the week. Not yet at the levels expected by the zero hedge article – but something nonetheless. I have seen about $2 bb difference between net and gross in previous months.
On the trading side, I see ES is leveling off its move upward. The 9 pMA is turning down – and is close enough to the 34 pMA to cross over in a bearish cross. However, it looks like flat slow waves into the data. Nothing left now but the white knuckles and grinding teeth of those betting on the numbers. The TA shows more downside support than overhead resistance, all in all, on the 5 min ES chart. It sure looks like a consolidation before a move up. Swim with the current if you’re gambling. Watch out for the volatility in this news. I’m sitting on my hands until afterwards.
I’m back in Los Angeles – happily so I might add. Don’t get me wrong, I love San Francisco and I had a lot of fun but – what can I say – I’m a Southern California boy
So, someone today (either gmak or Michael) posted the following chart this afternoon:
Geronimo’s Come Back
Geronimo’s most recent 20 trades, 17 winners and 3 losers.
Now, I haven’t verified these numbers and they might be off. Why haven’t I bothered? Because I frankly don’t care if anyone subscribes at this point. Because geronimo didn’t come back – it never left! This thing has been printing coin for months and if you look at the last six months track record it’s a very consistent winner. And perhaps it’s best if only a handful of people trade geronimo – it’s good to keep a low profile if you’re sitting on a winning strategy.
Quite frankly – I wasn’t even paying attention – I just kept watching it win over and over again. For some reason Eric is MIA and I personally have not kept track – especially during my travels. However, do you guys want to know what’s really funny?
What’s really funny is that we had dozens of subscribers for about three months after we launched geronimo. Then we had one ten day stretch sometime in August where I believe we had 4 or 5 stop outs (with wins in between). Guess what – a week later we had lost about one third of our subscribers. Admittedly we also suffered from technical difficulties a few times as we were haunted by an empty alert problem. However, we fixed it a week later and let everyone know (even the expired subs) – but they didn’t come back.
In the weeks after that geronimo quietly continued to win and bank coin while for some reason more and more subs kept dropping off. Two weeks ago I checked and we had a whopping THREE subscribers left – apparently only a few die-hards had stuck with it and and kept trading the system, no matter what. And that was before I ever even saw this chart. Yes, I kept seeing the signals and traded them as I always do when I was around, but I frankly wasn’t keeping track – after all I’m used to scalping geronimo for months now.
Moral of the Story:
But the lesson to be learned here, my dear stainless steel rats, is that there is a reason why 95% of retail traders lose most of their assets within their first 12 months of trading. Another 4% blows up within the next five years, and there’s about 1% (and maybe less) that actually banks coin consistently.
So, what is the big secret, oh Evil Oracle of Mole?
Three reasons – and actually two of them are related:
They don’t have a system with an edge or trade based on their ‘superior instinct’.
They have a system that might have an edge, but are unable to follow it.
They believe you have to be right a majority of the time in order to make money trading the markets.
Number three is something gmak talked about this morning – it’s a long discussion and it’s something we have been trying to drive home for over 18 months now (mostly without much success – you can’t fight human nature). One and two are simply related to discipline. Most people who try their luck in the market are either too lazy (or too stupid) to put in the work necessary to develop or at least copy a working system. And if they actually do find a system (or follow someone else’s) a majority of wanna-be-traders are not disciplined enough to follow even a system with a long term track record.
This is not meant to kick dirt in the faces of the folks who gave up after a few weeks of trying geronimo (despite the fact that we encouraged everyone to think long term). The point here is to learn a lesson, folks – discipline and persistence is a lot more important than intelligence, luck, or even the best technical analysis.
In times of crisis, leaders often look for an enemy to distract the great unwashed from the growing problems. The President of the US has decided that it should be the Legislature. Bernanke, it seems, has been lobbying senators to keep his job. The great contradiction yesterday was Geithner saying he had nothing to do with the AIG decision, and a later witness (I forget the name) saying that he signed off on all the AIG transactions.
In the meantime, it’s official: The FED has declared that we are in a recovery. It must be. Ford was profitable in accounting-world. More importantly, this means that lquidity backstops and MBS purchases shoud be on the way out. In my opinion, the risk market has only risen due to that “rising tide”.
China tells the world that there is NO inflation in its country. Clearly, their Central Bank is cloned from Greenspan and the FED who cannot see a bubble when it’s coming out their noses. It seems in Greece that on top of death and taxes, the only other certainty is bribes. Businesses are making decisions to avoid or minimize the amount of payoffs they need to make to do business there. Irony of irones, a judge in Ireland tells a debtor, “But you will appreciate that when parties enter a legal arrangement, if someone loans you money, you have to pay it back.” German unemployment increase was less than expected. Consumer confidence remains at its previous levels (low, if there are any doubts).
It’s just another day watching the hands of time tell lies. Welcome to the broken clock.
The world is green. Only Canada and Latam are showing red on the Wheel of Fortune. Even the PIIGS are getting a bid this AM. Obama may not be much – but he sure can give a speech! The DAX gapped up at the open, but has been selling off since and almost closed the gap. It looks like a bearish flag being put in. The current level, around 5660 looks to have been support all th way back to September. It must be the DAX equivalent of SPX = 1086. Industrials, Health Care, and Utilities are the only RED. Materials and Financials are leading.
SPX put a pin through 1086 yesterday, which seems to have lit a fire under the buttocks. It went on a tear upward, to be stopped at the 5 DMA. So far it is looking like a small gap up at the open, but the lying Durable goods number comes out this AM, along with jobless claims. You can be sure that there are a number of gamblers with money on one side or the other – and the low volumes make the swings particularly dangerous.
Today, the “Since Aug 17″ trend line is overhead at around SPX = 1103. The 50 DMA is overhead at the visual resistance point of SPX = 1114. SPX = 1086 has held again (For the 6th time, more or less, since going above on November 9th).
If you look back to SPX daily in 2003 – 2004, you will see that after the ramp off of the bottom, there was a period of sideways range-bound activity from around January 2004 until October 2004, with the TA indicating on each down leg that it migh head lower. My expectation is for similar action for the next few months until liqididty begins to be taken out of the market. One of the reasons is that I believe that the big money has to do distribution – and what better way than to bring in the SHORTS and sell to their panic covering?
One final note on the big picture: On a weekly basis, the trend lines have been clearly broken. TD has a technical support line at 1069.30. If the trend line is to be re-tested (and they don’t have to be before a drop), then SPX = 1121 could be a possibility.
ES rose overnight on Obama’s eloquence, and began a slow sell-off when the silver spoon turned back at midnight. TD has a technical support level (and it was the base for the overnight rise) at ES = 1096. The resistance level is at ES = 1102 (SPX = 1106ish, I believe). Looks like range-bound trading until 8:30AM EST, to me.
R2: 1107.50 = Also the potential target for any momentum, since TD has a price exhaustion level there on the 5 min chart.
R1: 1101 = Moving above this and retesting from above would activate the 1107.50 price exhaustion level and make it an active target.
Neutral: 1089.75 = Site of some noise into the close yesterday. Looks like it was resistance and support both over the last week or so.
S1: 1083.25 = ES analog to SPX = 1086, more or less. Definitely not the Maginot line.
S2: 1072 = Looks like this was the area for a lonely pin at the end of November. It was also resistance on the way up in the second half of September. If SPX = 1086 is breached at some point in the future, I believe that this would be where the bulls would come in to force short covering. (remember Jan – Oct 2004!).
Looks like DXY is going to get a bit of a rest after avoiding the double top. The 50 DMA at 76.82 looks like a solid longer-term support level, and TD technical support is there as well. The EUR is resisting falling below 1.40 – money is on there being some option bets around that level. On the 30 min chart, DXY found some support at the pivot at 78.63 – but it hasn’t been able to hold above the last high at 78.814. Lower support is at the pivot at DXY = 78.41.
CAD and GBP are stronger. EUR is flat (more or less), JPY is weaker. Yet the DXY is up. Is it the mightly CHF? It is weakening. Are those the BIS footprints at the crime scene?
Economic recovery is underway in the USA. There is no inflation in China. Russia says that it doesn’t expect country issues in Europe to have an effect on the Euro. Japan says that it won’t suffer a double dip in the first calendar quarter. I can hold my breath for an hour.
Sales of floating-rate corporate bonds are falling off, suggesting that there is less of a worry by investors about inflation. The market seems to believe that rates are going to stay low for a while. Don’t they understand that the FED has been buying Treasuries and that when liquidity is withdrawn, rates will ramp?
Brace for more useless spending as Obama is making jobs his top priority (what was it before?). Nokia shares surge 16% – let’s party like it’s 1999.
8:30AM EST = Durable goods (remember the fudging last time) at 20% expected versus the adjustment to -0.7% prior. If I were going to fudge, I would make a statistical adjustment because not many would notice the downward movement that would make the next period positive. Watch out for low-flying reindeer games.
Also, Jobless claims and continuing claims – which has become a bit of a snore-er. 450K expected vs 482K previous. Expect a thrilling appearance by the Birth /Deaths model that attempts to simulate small business activity.
ES is coming up to the top of its overnight range. I like the idea of swing trading between 1102 and 1096. I would put a stop just above ES = 1103, and look to come back in short around 1107.50;
If we get down to 1096, depending on TA at the time, a trade going long with a stop below 1095 looks like a decent risk /reward trade – with upside around 1101. BTW, the 9 pMA has crossed the 34 pMA on the 5 min chart indicating a bullish cross – even as ES bumps against the pivot at 1101 with TD technical resistance just above at 1102.
Sorry for the no-post this afternoon – I was out the door soon after the close and now back late. FYI, I believe Mole is back at his post here tomorrow. So for the moment – put your pencils down!
I missed tonight’s party in DC and have no idea re the take-away. Looking at the futures (up a decent clip, though nothing too dramatic) I’ll presume nothing terribly new was directed against the Financials, Wall Street, Etc.
I’m not all that interested anyway. These things don’t tend to be terrific market shakers and O has shaken the markets already; what is the upside for him to attack tonight? Maybe he did, I don’t know. I hear enough news during the day; I’m in a vacuum for several more hours just now.
What I do pay attention to is the action. We did manage a positive reversal Wednesday, on rising volume, and even though it was not a broad affair (breadth was sadly anemic), it is the best standing since the floor fell out last Wednesday.
So, we’ve begun a bounce. That is good because everyone with skin has been looking for it; bulls and bears alike. It ought to be a good bounce too, since we’re marching higher now ahead of Friday’s GDP report (which is expected to be much better than expected, I should add; I’m sure you are aware of that much already).
Yes, I see a lot of folks (bulls and bears again) discussing selling into the huge up-day coming Friday.
Well, smoke ‘em if you got ‘em, I’m at that party already. It is true I was covering-up this morning, but already then on the afternoon rush I began selling again. I sold more again tonight (just now in fact). I’ll be selling more tomorrow as well (assuming we’re rallying on the expectation of a rally coming Friday). If we’re still rallying Friday, then I’ll stop selling, because that would surprise me the most; freeze me in my tracks.
Yep, I’m obviously going to get crushed. The PPT is stoking up the hot pokers and aiming for my ass as we speak.
Good game me.
…lend me an ear and i’ll sing you a song.
Mole here: Great post, Michael. Unfortunately I must disappoint my intrepid stainless steel rats – I’m stuck in San Francisco until Thursday night. So, the first time I’m going to post again will be Friday morning – hope ya’ll can forgive me for the extended absence.
Nice tape in the past few days – just the kind of stuff we need to be seeing. Stay the course long term – play the swings if you want to have fun. Nothing much to be added at this point – also look at the VIX buy signal tonight – worth nothing.
And of course then there is this – thanks to TransworldDepravity pointing it out – didn’t check my charts today as I was busy running all over town from one meeting to another. But we are now the reaching the ‘Will Robinson Danger Zone’ on the CPCE – perphaps the bounce I have been expecting for three days now (silly me) will finally materialize tomorrow.
The IMF recently raised their global growth forecast. Remember the good old days? The USA, with 5% of the global population, made up 25% of the global GDP. Like locusts, they consumed somwhere around 15% of global production, and as a result of declining manufacturing and export – were almost 50% of the global current account deficit (not NET, but take all the negative balances and the USA was half). Imagine the amount of capital flows that went into the USA to fund the twin deficits – that they used to chide other countries about via the World Bank and IMF. And China is supposed to replace this with their empty cities and under-utilized factories?
Welcome to the broken clock.
Yesterday, SPX put another pin through the trend line “Since Aug 17″ that is just above, but didn’t hold and closed down day over day. There is a sloppy bearish flag forming just above the 1086 line. The 50 DMA has gone flat tat the rsistance line at 1114. The 5 DMA is falling at a 45 degree angle. It should reach SPX today or tomorrow. I think that when something falls on you from above, it has a tendency to push down.
The interesting part in all this equation is that BenDover and cronies are coming under a lot of scrutiny and, there is the AUDIT moving forward slowly – but looks likely to occur. It is hard to toss cases of money out the back door onto Wall Street’s waiting truck when the whole world is watching you. No liquidity, no rally.
Paranoid hat on: On the other hand, if I’m a great or lesser vampire squid sitting on massive amounts of futures, equities, and commodities – and I need to unload it on the next greater fool – I’m sweating bullets. If retail isn’t coming into the market, I NEED SHORTS to take up the slack and cover on every rally, so that I can sell into them. The only way that I can get the volume of shorts into the market, is to let them think that the portals of hell have opened up on SPX. After they’re short, the last of the MBS money goes into the pot to engineer the mother of all short covering as I lighten my load (as a great vampire squid that is). Wow. That’s some paranoid fantasy – but what would you do if you’re terribly long at this stage?
Asia was red. Europe is mainly red – except for some nordic countries. The PIIGS are getting slapped around a bit. The DAX closed its gap down yesterday, but opened a fresh wound this AM. DAX heals fast and has already recovered up near the highs of yesterday. IMO, this would be a good place to put a short on. Only Materials and Information Technology are green. Quite a rotation from Industrials and Telecom yesterday – which are among the bigger losers. Financials are still near the bottom of the pile.
ES slid into the Europe open, but has been tracking DAX back up to the neutral pivot, where it sits perched now and dizzy . ES ran along this pivot from the lockup until midnight. PIvots:
R2: 1108.50 = Uup around where the waterfall began on Jan 22 (Friday last week)
R1: 1098 = Around the highs from Yesterday, and a definite roof over any irrational exhuberance that might arise.
Neutral: 1089.50 = Where ES is sitting right now.
S1: 1079 = Certainly would be a new local low – and take SPX below that 1086 level. Not likely, IMO, unless squids are worried.
S2: 1070.50 = We kind of put a pin down through this level in November. But havent’ seen this since ES bludgeoned its way through November 9th. This was the site of a TD support level as well that launched the start of the big wave up since then
DXY has put in a local double top [ 12/22 = 78.449; 01/21 = 78.814]. The good thing is that DXY is riding on top of the 5 DMA, the bad news is that the 5 DMA is levelling off at 78.323 – call this the floor on a daily basis and a trend breaker if DXY closes below. There is quite strong support for DXY at the 76.75 ;level – which is where the latest rally started.
On the 30 min chart, DXY has found support at the pivot at 78.3837,. This consolidation could lead to the next attempt at a new high (78.814). If the pivot gives way, the next pivot (S1) is at 78.131
FED is coming to the wall on MBS purchases. Where will the money come from to buy TBonds then? The impact could be higher rates. Roubini thinks Spain poses the risk of disaster for the Eurozone. CDS trading is growing as fiscal deficits rise around the world. Where will the next AIG be?
China is asking its banks to review property loans. rut-roh!
SEC might drop its plan to stop MMKT funds from buying lower-rated debt. Need to put a floor under all that toxic waste that squids produce. The US is considering yet more mortgage plan fixes for underwater houses. Just chew the leg off already and get away from the trap!
MBA mortgage applications at 7 were -10.9%. New home sales at 10AM EST. More here:
Sloppy bear flag on the daily SPX. Sloppy bear flag on the 5 min ES. I would suggest a short play into the open on ES if the pivot at 1089.50 is breached to the downside, with a target around 1087.50 – not very much room, I know. If there is downside momentum, then I can see us re-testing the overnight ES LOD at 1083.25 – which somehow must translate to near SPX = 1086.
The magic numbers from 10,000 ft are stillSPX = 1086 to 1114. Beware the ides of squid.
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