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Archive for July, 2014
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I Hope You Bought Insurance

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July 31, 2014

I Hope You Bought Insurance

Given the fact that the ES futures have been proceeding lower overnight I will dispense with our usual morning briefing and instead present you with a few of my favorite momo charts. There’s a lot of confusion out there right now and it is important to remind ourselves of where we are in the long term trend in order to properly assess the odds for our respective trading activities.

Let’s start with a chart I already posted yesterday – the NYA50:NYA200 ratio which expressed market breadth across the NYSE. A drop in the signal tells us that we are seeing more symbols above their 200-day SMA in comparison to the ones above their 50-day SMA. If indices [...]

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Post FOMC Musings

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July 30, 2014

Post FOMC Musings

As widely expected the Fed decided to taper by another $10 Billion per month. Worthwhile noting however is that it also delivered on some earlier rumors that it would hint at a more hawkish stance going forward (i.e. interest rate hikes). The response on the equities side thus far has been pretty muted but predictable.  As in draw in all the hobby bears ahead of the announcement just to smack them with a two-by-four post announcement.

Where we wind up closing today is anyone’s guess and to some extent it’s academic and really doesn’t matter. As both Scott and I have been telling you over the past two weeks – entering anywhere inside our current [...]

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Head For The Beach

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July 29, 2014

Head For The Beach

It’s the height of summer and over here in Spain we are mere days away from the entire country shutting down in August. Yes, I am dead serious. Starting next week it will be impossible for anyone on the Iberian Peninsula to make a doctor’s appointment, get a haircut, fix your car, meet with an attorney, negotiate a contract, etc. Just found some tentacle growing out of your ear? Tough luck José – it’ll have to wait a few weeks. Got hit by a truck riding your moto and you may have severed your spinal cord? Better walk it off tough guy – those x-rays will have to wait until the doctor’s back from the beach.

Anything business or health related [...]

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Insurance Is Still Cheap

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July 28, 2014

Insurance Is Still Cheap

Now, before you do anything else I need you to first read Scott’s equities related perspectives which he graciously posted earlier this morning. It’s spot on and I could not agree more. As it so happens however I have quite a bit of material to add today – you may want to grab a cup of coffee or your favorite tea.

A little caveat before you read on: None of the below suggests that we are switching into bearish mode (just yet). Whenever you look at long term charts remember that they are just that – LONG term charts and that means that price usually takes weeks, if not months, to produce conclusive evidence suggesting that the ongoing trend has been [...]

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