Tough Spot

12:05pm EDT: We’re in a tough spot right now in terms of picking a direction. Either we are here:

Blue means new highs sometime next week. Or we are here:

It should actually say W-X-Y – sorry – but you get the drift here.

It’s starting to look like blue to me right now – seems we bears might have to sit through even more pain before we see any meaningful retracement.

NYSE breadth now at 1.6 – nothing to write home about but solidly in bullish territory.

1:11pm EDT: I thought you guys would enjoy some channel magic:

Chart says it all – orange scenario probably dies when we breach those two resistance lines.

It’s all Fed money now, folks – the concept of a liquid, regulated, and transparent market has long been dead.

White on white translucent black capes
Back on the rack
Bela Lugosi’s dead
The bats have left the bell tower
The victims have been bled
Red velvet lines the black box
Bela Lugosi’s dead
Undead undead undead
The virginal brides file past his tomb
Strewn with time’s dead flowers
Bereft in deathly bloom
Alone in a darkened room
The count
Bela Logosi’s dead
Undead undead undead

Embrace the pain, rats – it might get a lot worse before it gets better. The higher it goes the cheaper premium will get – just a matter of perspective.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 19th, 2009 at 12:11 pm and is filed under Channels, Elliott Wave Theory, Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • 5 min /dx shows a sign of landed at 78.4. dvg on rsi. i am going to bet some on it
  • chumprop
    Usually when the XLF is lagging the rally, they save it for an EOD pop that pushes to daily highs on S&P towards the close...

    Let's see if it happens today...
  • Now that the MM's swept out a bunch of stops they can let this push higher now. (god they are so predictable!)
  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
  • innatedc
    We're at an inflection point with our vix signal. Could go either way....this aft. will tell the story.
  • Vardoger
    Lots of puts sold on XLF today

    *Auction results , thx asi

    BtC: 4.744
    Indirect: 19.13%
    PD Involvement: 76.31%
  • bdf72
    You know with all the other "shit" being pushed out right now the market is the only thing left for folks to hold on to that is positive in small/middle town USA. If market cratters public is going to move negative in a hurry. I am beginning to wonder if my Dec SPY puts are to early. I might be taking a haircut on these. Mole's March/10's are starting to look alot better.

  • The direction has been and is still up. Especially in smallcaps and retail, which I've recommended.
  • I saw you were in my camp this morning, nothing harder than being the lone wolf or wolfess.
  • wex
    the lone she-wolf.
  • The key is ignore everyone, then develop and do your own analysis. Once that's done, you can talk to people and tell them what you've come up with. But then, since you know why you are doing what you are doing, their opinions won't bother you.

    :)
  • rhae
    Yup! kinda hate to ignore anyone... but definitely rely on your own dd
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Big short at 73.50 on RIMM ..And i thought i was done for the day lol
  • rhae
    told 'Ol RIMM to stop eating those dog turds this morning... he is better but still looking sickly
  • roscoe_casita
    ANN
  • fa_q
    They may get the 1000 but with the XLF flat and the IYR red and the BKX barely green - it won't be impressive. Someone asked me where I'm looking to short. I'm just still playing around with IYR that I shorted in the AH yesterday. I think that it going to really break down. ES is shortable after one more push up I think. However, I'd be antsy with cash over 1004.
  • Biffermas
    Goldman Sachs is down today. If they are so adept at painting the tape, why can't they paint their own?
  • rhae
    GS has fingers in everything... probably just trying to fake everyone out while they pick your pocket some where else.
  • bshah
    cuz i am holding 1 SEP 160 put.. it won't let it go up.. otherwise it will screw me up big time... (no worries, if all other puts either being stopped out or are on verge of it)..
  • Biffermas
    Hang in there with that put, bshah! Keep those bastards in check, we need more like you!
  • hould market continue to climb up - I suspect we'll see selloff at 2:30 est.
    they are too close to round numbers not to kiss them goodbye
    Did I say that I hate to trade W4?

    http://screencast.com/t/iDKO5Ka5D
  • rhae
    heard about wave 4's, " If you don't know what the hell is going on you know you are in wave 4"
  • qqqq reached resistance, stiff to Huge to, ( nearly impossible for it to get above__39.37__intraday, 39.5 max__
    Mole's indicators should be turning any minute now--
    I also have confirm signal IWM at 56.35
  • 39.40+ qqqq good short entry started to buy SPY10 70/80 Mar/Jun PUTS
  • I still say over 1000 by EOD, the bulls want that 1000 mark back and with light volume, they can easily push this baby up. I will take profits on 1/2 spy calls (have limit order in) when we get over 1000.
  • Iguanadon
    The only way I will allow 1000-1005 to be hit is for a stop sweep.

    Iggy has spoken.
  • That's ok by be Iggy, I will have my limit order filled for my spy calls! :)
  • ropey
    theta is killin anyone with long calls/puts here, writing spreads...'safe' stops for friday fun.
  • rhae
    Nice to have a cartoon ( a good one) with my head ache medicine ( similar to annamall's)....Maybe we need a ACME Stock Index, this one doesn't seem to be working
  • How cute is that! :-)
  • rhae
    SPY 60m... the last straw.... macd ( 12'26'9) signal lines have not breached 0.... Dead Cat Bounce? better turn down pretty soon tho.
  • kevinsch
    short EUR/USD for scalp @ 1.425 w/ stop above R3 at 1.4257
  • feel good for sitting out watching the crazy tape.
    i forgot to mention 1 thing. my china man told me the chinese media said china is selling treasury while i read news here says no such thing.
    this is getting interesting, especially for the past couple days, SPX stopped following SSE.
    i will check in with findings.
  • Vardoger
    Can you imagine the leverage the pd's are using to prop everything up? Duct tape markets fo sho

    Unwind has to be extremely violent, no?
  • Bricks
    Damn...all of my potential put plays have (of course) been blown away by this "wonderful" run up to 1000 and my one potential lon gplay today, RIMM, is down. go figure...
  • Iguanadon
    I refuse to allow SPX to show 4 digits again.

    Iggy has spoken.
  • Time to short then!

    I'm waiting until the close though. I think this will be flat for the rest of the day or ramp up in a POMO special. Good short afterwards either way I suspect.

    I'm out until after the close. Nothing to see in any case I suspect.

  • Iguanadon
    I'm back into TZA at 15.70.

    I tried earlier, got in at 16.14 but got stopped out. Still only putting in 1/2 of my allotment.

    It was all Kiersten's fault I got in and then stopped out earlier.
    ;-)
  • Trick-Or-Trader
    FAZ only down .12 on this reversal...very interesting!
  • Iguanadon
    Yep, RIFIN and XLF didn't take part in the rally like everyone else. Even Russell2k lagged a little bit.
  • Trick-Or-Trader
    FAZ and FAS both up on the day spells inflection point!
  • Well the oil double top is now a triple top, but only if we go down from here.

    More likely next stop at $80.

    POMO day today. Anyone betting against a ramp at the close? Not me.

    Cash is most definitely a position here as Inna says.
  • ACJ
    I'm sure MSM is already preparing the trumpets for 1***
  • ropey
    Lot of OI at the 100 SPY Aug calls and on the puts below, i expect they'll keep it around here on friday even if they do run up and fill the gap at 100.70
  • I'm helping a friend move today, taking a break and thought I'd check in. Seems like I haven't missed anything too exciting. Will check in after the close.
  • we've seen 5 waves up and it has stopped right at the 61.8% retracement level. i suspect we go down now, otherwise, mole's blue scenario is in play

    here's the ultrabearish green count from above, though i favor the orange if we stop shy of 1000

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folders/Jing/media/7e42a7ba-f7e4-44db-a1f9-6e94df572a4a
  • Vardoger
    Mole-- You trading /YG out of that pennant? GLD has an ISEE of 11 today, I'm thinking about shorting it below 930.1 if not sooner.

    BTW, ISEE pros still buying puts, retail buying calls at extreme levels.
  • Looks like we may be at 1002.50 to me EOD. 50% from Low of 977.25
  • funkypenguin
    Interesting play on UNG trading at a significant premium to it's NAV (trading like a CEF now)
    Price: 12.09
    NAV: 10.67

    Short UNG


  • Keirsten
    Just a caution- there's very little overhead supply from here until that gap fill. Pick your trades carefully.
  • NYFITRD
    13:09 White House Denies Speculation About Second Stimulus Package
  • Oh-ooooohhh.....
  • ACJ
    you HAD to know it was coming; if money is worthless WHY NOT
  • looks like another short cover leg up.
  • how the hell did I screw that long trade up - I trade for W3 start!
    damn headache
    http://screencast.com/t/i1Mpvz2HBpW

    P.S. will be opening SPY puts on new HOD
  • Why even trade when you don't feel well D? I know how many mistakes I can make when I don't feel good, take it easy..:-)
  • because Russians are just like Irish - they never miss a bad fight
  • hahaha stubborn like us Italians! LOL
  • innatedc
    CASH IS A POSITION!!!

    DON"T FORCE IT!!
  • Allot cash is a great position! ;)
  • Joe8888
    GS regained neckline......that's not a good sign

    volume lite,,,not a good sign


    we may have to wait a little longer here..
  • innatedc
    Yeah Joe, like I said before they may pin 160....it is OPEX week remember....

    Why is everyone (except the angels) in a tizzie?....this is your typical OPEX week.
  • Vardoger
    How many stops you think are at 1000-1005? I hate these fuckers, wish I had the balls to go long but since I want to keep my balls I'll just go jerk off instead of trading....
  • innatedc
    LMAO.....!!!
  • Mr. Tuxedo
    Hey whatever it takes.
    Like Woody Allen said, "It's sex with somebody I love".
  • Me_XMan
    HAHAHAHA!
  • Must be OPEX week...SPY up, VIX up, TLT up, Dollar Down.... what would make more sense is SPY down, VIX up, TLT up, Dollar up or the inverse. This is just plain Fuckery today.
  • I'm no EW'er but this has all the makings of a W4. Correct me if I'm wrong.
  • You are wrong - fourth waves cannot cross into the first.
  • I don't know much about EW but on an intermediate term basis this does not trade like an impulse wave.
  • fuw
    Where is your line in the sand for the orange scenario to be violated?
  • roughly 1000 it's right now up against its 61.85 retracement, much above that, blue might be in play. the ultra bearish count is still very viable as well, although less likely, it has this as wave ii of 3 and wave iii of 3 down to begin very sooooooooooon!

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folders/Jing/media/7e42a7ba-f7e4-44db-a1f9-6e94df572a4a
  • That's roughly my target as well for next week.
  • if you were talking about the current chop it does look like wave iv of x
  • been in and out now back into FAZ, as SSC pointed out last night the BKX appears to be in a triangle. i've redrawn it a bit. should see a move down then possibly up and out

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folders/Jing/media/788d6164-cbdc-454e-8c45-71c9c50aec0b
  • @torbjornrive
    I'm tempted to short X...

    ...thoughts? it's been rather lethargic comparitively, and WAS leading better than the spy until now.
  • @torbjornrive
    EDIT: will only consider after I've seen its action at the $43.70 gap.
  • i wouldn't i'm in a pairs with it long and stld short

    see my blog for charts and rationale

    http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/2009/08/steel-pairs-trade.html
  • @torbjornrive
    I agree. At first it was a bullish idea for me - but when it gapped down with the market the other day, then looked lethargic I am trying to approach it with an open mind.

    I would enter long above $45, then keep a tight leash. It has great space above $47 or so, as you pointed out.
  • Backtest of /ES wedge held so far - http://twitpic.com/eh9iw/full
    had to take a stab at a short.
  • From the LOD i see a ABC with A=C @ 998
  • rhae
    Isn't Siesta Time the wrong time of day for this crap?

    I do know that things move easier durung lunch hour do to low volume tape painting, but the last move seemed unusual... oh well nothing surprises me anymore
  • dollar
    Maybe this contributed:
    11:57 AM Fed eases margins on low-risk collateral used by banks to obtain loans from its discount window and Term Auction Facility, stressing the changes stem from a multi-year review, and are not a response to the financial crisis. Still, analysts say the move is a plus for the economy and the markets.
  • rhae
    thx dollar, it is good to have helpful Rats on the team,,, it is very difficult for any one person to keep up with everything.

    another band-aid, Patient gonna bleed to death eventually...
  • Just added a few more SPY sept 100 calls a few moments ago. 2.57

    Looks like some consolidation before pushing higher.
  • innatedc
    Nice work Anna....I missed this bounce but I'm not going to chase it right now...
  • Thanks Inna :-) your so sweet! No don't chase it, I added about an hour ago. I for sure see over 1000 by EOD. (which we are approaching)
  • 3x sh nq pos now

    P.S. I know that I am wrong - QQQQ might go to 39.40-39.60
  • How's the head D?? hope you feel betta! I had a bad one overnight, then guzzeled down some vodka in my O.J. now feel much better. ;-)
    (I really did have the migraine)
  • I am just forcing the trade because I missed long at the open - and it was clear shot - and I was sleeping :(
  • Feeling better? :)
  • marcT
    Mole, did you get my e-mail? I would like to hear what you think.
  • For short term I am adding SPY 100 calls to any dips.
  • rhae
    SPY 30m break outs are when the fun begins ... I start by looking for intial targets... fib ext at 1.5 and minor resistance 100.10 ... so that was the 1st projected target... will it hold? maybe, maybe not
    http://screencast.com/t/W0pNVLvl
  • standard_and_poor
    I sure as hell am not shorting this!
  • Actually, I think if you're looking to short, this level is pretty good although in terms of timing I would wait until tomorrow.
  • standard_and_poor
    Thanks friend.
     

     



    ________________________________
  • Are you glad I caught you this morning S Dali! LOL
  • standard_and_poor
    You are the stock market super-woman.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SLeae3Yoe0
     

     



    ________________________________
  • SpeedSkt1
    A few thoughts.....it sure seemed like sentiment turned more bearish very quickly with just a pause in the SPX. I'm bearish over the longer term, but if sentiment started falling with such a small decline, how bearish would folks be at 950? 905? If we got to 875, who would be left to sell? On the daily and weekly charts, momentum indicators continue to make higher highs or to keep pace with the recent advance. Looking back at the way that these indicators performed last fall, many of the momentum indicators peaked in October '08. However, price didn't find a bottom until March '09. I have to wonder if a similar pattern will play out this time. It is for this reason that I'm waiting on buying some longer term puts. There was a 5-month lag between the momentum bottom and the price bottom (Oct-Mar). If August was the momentum high, (and there is not yet clear evidence that it was) then 5-months forward gets to January 2010. Several things begin to come together next year that I am anticipating with great interest. There will be a new Fed term and possibly a new Fed chairman. The Fed's purchases of Treasuries and Agencies will have expired by then. (The agency buy-programs are set to expire at the end of 2009.) Obama's 1-year honeymoon will be over. A new wave of mortgage resets will be upon us. And, the market will have had its opportunity to follow the pattern of the 1930s where it had a year of 40% declines, followed by a year of an ~10% rally. Then the real pain began. I offer this as merely one man's ideas and a potential scenario of what is to come.
  • thelefteyeguy
    actually it doesnt take much to drop a market...just look at what the govt did in China over the past 2 weeks.

  • SpeedSkt1
    yes, but I think that the U.S. is very different from China.....Govt.,
    demographics, societal organization, level of development.......
  • Bankrupt
    have you guys and gals seen a h&s in the making on the es?

    it's a bit strange, but on 8 hours chart can be visible
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Also if you look back over the past 2 weeks, an h&s is certainly one possibility in a flat continuation pattern.

    We'd have to not take out 1016 ES / 1018 SPX at the bump into resistance on the highs.
  • Volume spike on the hourly ES and MACD pointing straight up with room to run.
  • Glad I waited on puts Mole. I loaded up on spy 100 calls this morning, and for sure see us above 1000 by EOD. By Friday 1015-16 would be my guess.
  • thelefteyeguy
    unless we hit 1015 today...i predict we stay flat for the next 2 days...similar to Fujisan's views

    then on Monday....WAM!


    (btw...F the crackdown on oil manipulation cause it's not working)
  • I say by Friday we see 1016 then to 1035 next week.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Monday would be the ideal day. Especially if we close lower on Friday the odds favor a big red Monday candle.

    What a tape this is this summer!
  • Actually, I just loaded up on more puts, Anna....
  • thunda72
    Me too... doubled my Mole-Puts!
  • You are relentless! LOL I will wait till the blue scenario plays out a bit more. :)
    I thinks we have some SPX points to go yet.
  • Bankrupt
    are you hedged?
  • ..
  • thelefteyeguy
    Fujisan was right again...
  • AS2009
    Can someone tell me how to find Fuji's post ?
  • raised_by_wolves
    That's as easy as (1) clicking on my avatar and then viewing my full profile on DISQUS, (2) clicking on Fujisan's avatar, (3) finding her post, probably still the top one, that describes typical OPX week price movement. So that you don't miss anything she says, you can (4) click on the follow Fujisan button.
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    Closed out of longs.All in cash. I'm done for the day. Expect Bob piss on me to come out later with his rosey outlook.
  • Me_XMan
    What a jam job! Wow! Very bullish short-term indeed.
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