Long Term Resistance

11:30am EDT: I was just poking around in my long term Dow chart when I suddenly had a little epiphany – obseve:

See that resistance line? Let’s zoom in a bit more…

Even more…

Well, what do you know – we’re sitting right at it. Sure, we could easily bust higher and touch 9,650 – but I will unhedge now and start adding positions on each leg higher.

12:45pm EDT: The Dow Jones Utilities Index ($UTIL) is at the verge of making new 6-months highs:

Potential targets are the fibs provided which are multiples of the prior leg up. I’d like to see this one a teeny bit higher before I bulk up on more puts.

1:00pm EDT: I got a little goody for you rats:

I just manually updated my BAA:TYX chart and voila – we got a little Viagra moment here. Could this be a precursor to a significant drop in equities or maybe even Primary {3}?

3:10pm EDT: Seems we consolidated pretty much sideways since the early spike and could now see a bust higher. A/D ratio right now 3.7 – not as bullish as earlier today. Dollar is being sold again – we’re back to the 78 mark. Obviously this tape is fickle but we’ve got a good chance of seeing new highs at the close.

3:15pm EDT: Okay, for the nth time – if your posts are getting swallowed by disqus don’t post again – just email me and I un-spam it. Not my fault – it’s the fucking disqus spam filter and I don’t know how to adjust it (or am too lazy to figure out).

3:40pm EDT: We probably will bust higher into the close but I just loaded up on more SPY March puts – same strikes – 70 and 65. Will add even more if we race higher.

4:01pm EDT: IF the futures push higher until 4:15 – remember that QQQQ, IWM, and SPY trade until 4:15pm EDT.

This entry was posted on Friday, August 21st, 2009 at 11:33 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    could the bernanke 'I saved the world' speech mark the top. please?

  • http://www.slopeofhope.com Tim Knight

    I hate this market so much, I could punch a vicar.

  • Royal With Cheese

    Mole, I'm with you with this “abyss” scenario, but why are the slopes so steep ?? you thik we get to take out the lows at year end ? Don't you think a multi month topping process is in the cards with a fall into the “abyss” starting in november december ??

    vielen dank ! ;)

  • Royal With Cheese

    S.O.S chocolates for T.K ! ;)

  • Iguanadon

    Hold on to your hats… Meredith Whitney coming up on Bloomberg TV….

  • peder1001

    i think its cos its options expiration day

  • http://www.thedocument.com thedocument

    You want to get excited about the Dow approaching the November high when the SPX has already punched through it? No, thanks.

  • http://onechionlyselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ onechionly

    That would be very funny actually and will go down to the hall of fame for every contrarian out there.

  • annamall

    I love Al from Married with Children, so funny! (just saying) :)

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    This type of moves doesn’t surprise me at all anymore. What we are forgetting is we are still in the quarter which is full of surprises. Most companies coming out with positive earnings based on only cost cutting and not on actual revenue. Give one more quarter to all these hype and we will get a real picture. I am not saying we will get another crash or another run up all I am looking for how these companies will make money.

    The cost cutting is the key for this quarter but what about revenue? I didn’t see any company come out with surprising numbers in revenue. Now cost cutting is limited, may be limited to only this quarter, or perhaps a littler left over effect in next quarter but then what? The economy is still weak; the next problem will be unemployment. If any company is not able to make revenue how is that going to give us a bull market? No revenue means no new jobs, rising unemployment will cause another crash? I don’t know but what I know is when I see profit I will take it and won’t think about tomorrow. Market can run or drop but what I will be doing is booking the profit and calling it a day.

    Bull market or Bear market what every trader should look for is an opportunity on daily basis, the work for ST, IT or LT is worthless.

    Good luck.

    Comment and critics are welcome

    http://eminitrends.blogspot.com/2009/08/bull-ma

  • thunda72

    FWIW, Meredith Whitney is on Bloomberg right now.

  • annamall

    Here is my another run up from dip, let's see if we break through earlier highs, my guess is yes.

  • Mile_High

    Mole – don't post much but love your site. Anyway, do you see us reaching 1120? 50% Fib of Primary W.1 and 100% of last potential A-B correction. Also, with my time projections, I have this Minor W.C and Primary W.2 ending around SEP 17 -time frame.

  • http://onechionlyselliottwaves.blogspot.com/ onechionly

    Tim I feel ya.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    It would be so just, so elegant, so perfect

  • thunda72

    He's advocating getting Mar puts, so I think the drop might come after the New Year… I've been slowly legging in.

  • rhae

    SPY daily… Sheesh! My daily chart showing at channel top and resistance trendline (RTL)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/SemORGlZ

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    that's what I mean. Aside from wanting to get some sanity back to this market, I would love, absolutely love it, if that speech marked the top of this bear market rally. It would be historic, better even than Irving Fisher's comment back in 1929 about a “permanently high plateau.”

  • molecool

    Not talking about the November high – zoom out a bit more…

  • Royal With Cheese

    How is it cooking my Indian mate ??

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    anyone else seeing this turning into an ending diagonal, bueller, bueller anyone, bueller

  • annamall

    Hey sexy abs!

  • MJSgl

    What'd she say?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Hey Pumpkin tits :-) how's it going?

  • Douala

    I saved this which was a post by one of Bill Cara's traders a few days ago. Thought it “may” apply today or in the days to come. Something to keep in mind.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Follow-up to “How rallies end” new
    Submitted by Vadym Graifer (396 comments) on Tue, 08/11/2009 – 15:03 #41121

    As we descend a bit over last two days, I get a feeling this is not it yet. Volume decreases, for one thing… top is still being called too widely all over trading circles, another… third being, market retreats get this slow steady buying off the bottom, quite confident and sustainable.

    My gut feeling is, we are going to see one more strong spike shaking out another crop of premature shorts, causing frustration and resignation among bears – and that will mark the top.

  • Bankrupt

    someday you will be wrong too, I am holding my shorts ;)

  • Douala

    The original post
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    How rallies end
    Submitted by Vadym Graifer (380 comments) on Fri, 08/07/2009 – 15:17 #40532

    Not even pretending to be able to time it precisely, let me provide this conceptual blurb from today's trading comments:

    [09:16] {Threei} we rallied for months with no positive news,
    with extremely negatiove background noise,
    and last week or two we started hearing all kinds of “recession is about over”,
    [09:17] {Threei} and now we are getting first signs of positive economic data.
    Red day would signal strong reversal coming
    [09:18] {Threei} I am waiting to see if it's a red day in order to get a confirmation of reversal
    This is how it usually works:
    put the bottom in and reverse to the upside when it's the darkest,
    rally on no good news,
    spike right before or on positive news,
    put the top in and reverse to the downside as news become rosey.
    Normal market cycle… happens for eons, yet every time catches public by surprise, and causes all kinds of screams about manipulation,
    even though this scenario is of public's making in the same degree as smart money's.
    For it to happen, both sides must fufill their roles:
    smart money to start accumulating when news is the worst possible and market is destroyed,
    and for public to wait with their buying until the news is at its happiest and market has rallied quite a bit.
    Smart money did its part, now it's public's turn.

  • thunda72

    Actually… didn't pay attention, had some 'real' work come in. ;-)
    Hopefully Bloomberg will post the clip later.

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Doing good my brodha.

    how's trading going on?

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO hahahahaha. awesome long since Monday afternoon. :)

  • rhae

    Just close your eyes and hold your nose

  • springheel_jack

    I think you're right Royal. I don't buy the end of the world plunge. Even when vast swathes of banks started to go bust at the end of 1930, the market slipped slowly into the abyss over the next year and a half.

  • Bankrupt

    ok, that should mark the top.

  • Douala

    Chart..chart…chart… why do you punish us by with holding those “award winning charts”…. Geeeeez what a true “Alpha Male” you are…. ;-)

  • http://www.thedocument.com thedocument

    Okay… a trend line coming in from way back. Got it.

  • annamall

    I am wrong allot more than I would like to say. :)
    Sept is when I think we really see the market retrace.

  • Douala

    I did…. and it didn't work! :-(

  • bshah

    what just happened to GS? MW upgraded it or what ?

  • Iguanadon

    Nothing earth shattering. The usual… blah blah, Citigroup will need to sell off assets to pay back the gov't… blah, blah, over 1 trillion in credit card limits drawn in so far with another 2 trillion to go which will hurt a lot of small businesses that depend on personal credit cards to float their business… blah, blah… the consumer won't be back any time soon…

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, the question is how high?

    If USD has bottomed 1045 looks like a probable high. If USD hasn't bottomed then even 1200 might be possible.

  • Iguanadon

    Goldman Sachs has spoken.

    ;-)

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, good turning point in a week or so.

    I think we might have put in the HOD though & history suggests Monday might well be a down day.

  • malusDiaz

    the optimism is out in full force:

    http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2009/08/21/mr

    I'm all for frugality & wise investing… but look how many comments are talking about there huge gains and they wish they had more to invest….

    And their all equity investors…

  • ennuigo

    What's this message I just got:

    The website at evilspeculator.com contains elements from the site waveadvert.com, which appears to host malware – software that can hurt your computer or otherwise operate without your consent. Just visiting a site that contains malware can infect your computer.

  • annamall

    hahahaha you! LOL ;) (i wish i had their money)

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Long from Monday damn that's nice!! I should have taken a long last night on NQ when I closed my Short from 1610-1600

  • Rd99Hse1

    New SPY, 99strike Mar10 puts here.
    I like my thinking. Now I only have to worry about 'hurry up and drop' next year.

  • http://www.wiredpirate.com Deuterium is Heavy

    Mole caught the downtrend resistance line from Oct 2007, glad to see that. Agree with that prognosis. Target Dow 10,500 minimum on that, likely higher.

    Don't anybody short this shit. This week was a bear trap. They put Prechter on Bloomberg calling an end to the rally – that cinched it for me.

    This is gonna be the mother of all rallies. Bears will pray for mercy, but the Fed/GS/JPM triumvirate won't give until they finally capitulate. “How dare you oppose us!” they're saying, and they mean it. When the last bear is dead, then we'll start P3 down – The Crash, for real. As somebody else stated, there won't be any bears left to participate, will only be a slaughter for bulls. Bear meat tastes good, but TPTB love a good fillet mignon.

    Today's news confirms this scenario – Bernanke claiming credit for rescuing the world. It fits with EW theory on psychology for the end of P2 – but we're not just there yet. Patience! As for Bernanke, what a tool. Come next spring, he will be the clown fool, pretending to have failed. “We never saw this coming.” All part of the plan.

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/indust

  • mrclam

    Thinking about entering a SPY vertical here, SEP 110/112, thoughts anyone? If we are above 1120 at sept expiration risk/reward is 15:1. .12 debit

  • annamall

    Consolidation for another run higher? BB's are getting tight again ;)

  • annamall

    Clam great R to R but why not do October and give yourself a bit more time to be right?

  • Bankrupt

    it's supposed to be that way near tops

    even bears start to doubt their thesis at the top

    I am not sure this is the top but I am playing it short and I am playing it small

    if it goes higher I will add
    if it goes lower I will add

    cmon, Bernanke just saved the world. it can't get better than that.

  • ropey

    shame the vicar looks like this right now.

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PfymJKvkW5Y/RxZk4h9lx

  • Royal With Cheese

    With all those zooms in this post .. didn't you want to zoom zoom zoom in the poom poom ??

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKKONgfNONU

  • TheMacroEconomist

    So, you did it Anna! You went into the open with clear targets and direction, which you'd mentioned even a day or 2 before. :)

  • mrclam

    R to R drops to 6:1 and requires 3 times as much capital :)

  • Squidman

    Kind of like posting a chart with a beautiful woman's pic and then withholding the truth. How female : >

  • DeadPrez

    Back and to the left… Back and to the left…

  • annamall

    thanks Mac….I try hard and sometimes hit the ball ;-)

  • St Deluise

    at what point would it no longer be absurd for a bank to upgrade themselves? i mean, people shrugged off the end of mark-to-market like it was nothing. if GS came out at 3:30 today and announced their shares are now worth $180, would anyone beyond a handful of blogs even shake their head?

  • Bankrupt

    agree 100% with you on Prechter. they give bears media time just before nasty ramp ups.

    having said that, when a top is forming it is supposed to be uncomfortable to short. not saying this is it, just an observation.

    you are right – they don't want bears to participate.

    f them I am going to bank some coin

  • harveydent

    quick question guys!

    what does this mean from scottrade:
    “Unable to enter the order because uncovered option trading is not allowed.”
    trying to buy to open SPY calls and i cant!
    i wanted to this morning. UGHHHH

    i just filled out my options form too…

  • annamall

    But the probability is much greater. Just my opinion and FWIW I think we get retracement in Sept at least 10% or so.

  • ennuigo

    Didn't Prechter put himself on TV? In essence, by issuing his report early, etc.? Are you saying he's part of some conspiracy with the Fed?

  • Douala

    SJ
    True… but if things are being controlled or manipulated as a lot of people believe they are, then when they are ready to pull the plug on the rally, then what Vadym Graifer says above makes sense. That last strong spike upwards to kill off the bears once and for all. The trader who can recognize it will be the king of the hill and enjoy a profitable ride down.

  • Bankrupt

    ok I covered my shorts for breakeven, I really didnt like EURUSD breaking out. I will be considering to short the close though.

  • annamall

    Yes, I will enjoy this weekend immensely :-D

  • annamall

    agreed jack. :)

  • DeadPrez

    You sure you aren't selling spy calls? Either that are you aren't yet approved to trade options.

  • mrclam

    Point taken…I'm looking at this chart from moo at bluechipbulldog:
    http://tinyurl.com/muacbu

    For the risk, seems to me it might be worth it

  • newbear

    I was over in Europe a week ago and it is just amazing the crap we are shown in the media here, it is just so selective. Not that the media over there is that much better. You get a feeling of doom and gloom from the European media, newspapers, tv reporting about how bad it is and then I catch the news here a week later and find out Germany is already out of recession? Didn't know a plane flight could change all that.
    :0)

  • MJSgl

    Thx!

  • annamall

    very low risk, why not go for it! :)

  • harveydent

    ya i clicked “buy to open”
    maybe ill have to wait another business day to trade…. :/

  • MJSgl

    Likely the approval hasn't gone through yet.

  • annamall

    I think you were smart, I think we paint new highs on the day. JMHO

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It's odd how things just pop out on the tape. I recall last Friday I was comparing EW notes with DavidDT and his D-Wave.

    We hadn't even gotten to wave 3 out of 5 yet and I mentioned to David the possibility of a truncated 5th (failure) – which happend Tuesday AM. It was in these comments somewhere, spooky stuff.

    BTW I got new appreciation for D-Wave. Interesting how different takes on TA can lead you down the same road. ;)

  • annamall

    MJ is right I would think it takes a few days.

  • ZeroPointMind

    He was on late Feb 09 before the bottom saying cover your shorts. That was good advise. Of course, he has been wrong in a big way in the past but he's not one of “their boys”.
    I think we are in P4, not P2 and might even be in the beginnings of Wave 3 up of a new bull market but hey what do I know ?
    Here is something that you may find interesting :
    http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/sp500-elliott-wav

  • mrclam

    I think I will, will enter 50% at close today depending on how we end up, and the other 50% on monday, I'll keep you posted on how it goes. You trading EUR/USD? It almost seems too easy, the brits take profits before their market close, right after that, it bounces….

  • ennuigo

    I will add that the destruction of every last bear would fit in well with this impossibly manipulated market.

  • annamall

    Yes, hindsight things are always so clear huh?

    Hope you did well today? were you long @ open?

  • springheel_jack

    You're right of course. Might short the EOD though.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    My FNM lottery tick is paying off today. Kind of wish I had bought more…dang position sizing!

  • annamall

    that sounds like a great plan! :) Yes i really like the EUR/usd (I put usd in small letters because it is such a whimpy little thing) LOL
    best. Such an easy trade so far.

    Picked up 150 pips last night. :) yeeehhhhhaaaaa

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Undoubtedly. Two gaps up today is pretty good evidence that this is the “third of a third”.

  • Bankrupt

    equties not really cooperating with the dollar. does this mean a rollover is in the cards?

  • mrclam

    nice trades :) I'm still paper trading forex, not sure i'm ready to really play against the house yet!

  • annamall

    Good call SSC! :)

  • annamall

    Give them time, its lunchtime for the GS boyz! LOL

  • annamall

    good for you Jethro! coulda shoulda woulda you know.. :)

  • Scrillhog

    Yes… “Feeding Frenzy” time..

    “Term used to describe the Friday-morning meal shared by a certain clique of bond traders. At this meal, traders would order astounding quantities of take-out food. The traders would then compete with each other to see who could display the most gluttony, and always bought far more food than they could eat (e.g., insisting on five-gallon tubs of guacamole with an order of Mexican food).”

  • pramood

    Hi Anna,

    Good call. I think they might hit 1030 on S&P today. What do you think?

    TIA

  • http://www.wiredpirate.com Deuterium is Heavy

    Prechter nailed the top, before P1 got under way, and he nailed the bottom of P1. That's well recorded, and it was a monstrously good call. But now he's news, has a public face, so they can use him to manipulate the bears into this trap. He's ignoring his own EW theory on that call though, relying too much on the sentiment indicators which caused him to miss the last couple of years of the bull market. That was a bad call, like many he has made in the past. This pair of calls on P1 was the lone good call he made in the last decade.

    Prechter did offer a caveat on his call, saying that the rally “might” continue up a ways, but he'd rather be early than late. Most retail investors cannot afford to be too early.

    Market top on September 9, 2009. Or maybe 9/11/09. TPTB love to throw it in our faces, to let those in-the-know know that they have complete control of the game. Which is not to say they ago against the forces of nature, but that they use them to their advantage.

    In the end it will all be for naught. We'll might make money in the markets, if we're one of the lucky 10% who manage to do so. And then they'll hyper-inflate the dollar to oblivion in one fell swoop, and the $1M you attempt to draw from your trading account will be “in process” for the duration of the hyper-inflation. By the time you get it out, you'll be able to buy a loaf of bread with it.

    The deflation/hyper-inflation whipsaw to come will be the most brutal ever seen.

  • innatedc

    We saved the world- Bernanke

    What an arrogant piece of shit….

  • annamall

    Thanks Pra, I am holding my calls for now, I think we at least test 1027. :)

  • Keirsten

    Just checking in from my short hiatus before I head to the beach….

    UUP did find horizontal support from Dec. '08 this morning and bounced…

    SPY has been trading in an intraday channel since Tuesday if you draw the lines. “If” I was trading today, that would be my training wheels for scalping either way. (Yeah, I know.. thank you Capt. Obvious)

    My personal additions were some long dated lotto puts on GS and AAPL and added a small amount on the cubes and SPY. This is money I can set on fire, so kids.. don't try this at home. Purely profits I made from scalping long this week.

    G/L Steel Rat buddies, enjoy the weekend, and see you Monday for more fun and games, time to scoot……… Enjoy FDIC Friday. :-D I can't wait to catch up with all of you next week.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    harv Scottrade is a real pain in the %$@, did you fax the form or drop it off at a local office? They usually won't do it any other way for options. And once they do it takes them a while to approve you for these transactions. Unless something has changed that is. You need to convince them you know what you're doing…..which is a good thing.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • Iguanadon

    He's trying to keep his job for another term… gotta sell himself. He doesn't want to go on the unemployment line.

  • Bankrupt

    eh I am an European and media sucks here too. maybe not as bad as cnbc but we are not really far away…

  • harveydent

    i dropped it in the local office.
    thanks for the replies people :)
    ill just patiently wait…

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    A painful but useful look back over the past few months: http://screencast.com/t/X0fluahJOV59

    It not just about being right. You can be right and still lose money. We have to be constantly vigilant, especially in this trading environment, to survive. I think I'm gonna go and read PotP again…

    Trade better, not more.

  • zenith191

    I've been accumulating puts since SPX 917. My drawdown is about 60% now. I sure hope reality catches up with this market before the year is out.

  • annamall

    Hey sistah, have fun, and we will hold down the fort till you return! that's so funny because I was blogging with someone who used Captain Obvious too. how funny!

    See you Monday girl! :)

  • Bankrupt

    spx 1030? we are practically there….

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    ouch thats quite a bit. How much capital committed and how far out are those options?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    exactly

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I think spx is going to go to 1500 by the end of the day .LOL hold on tight….

  • goldpackers

    Reversal in TBT.

    Gann turn days today and Monday and 8-28/31.

    Faz will reverse split again at $5

  • Vardoger

    Meredith Whitney Says Bank Failures in U.S. Will Increase to More Than 300 Meredith Whitney, the analyst who predicted that Citigroup Inc. would cut its dividend last year, said the number of U.S. bank failures will quadruple as lenders struggle with bad loans.

  • innatedc

    I like your thinking alpha….question is do we hit 1030 this afternoon followed by sell-off or do we hit 1030 on Monday….then sell off?

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^^ Nice sense of humour there girl

  • annamall

    Maybe 2000 BH LOL ;0)

  • annamall

    Makes life more fun right Tron? :)

  • Vardoger

    Thx, what was the previous turn date before today?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    IF! you likemy charts this one is a must see

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • innatedc

    On a roll with the charts my man, on a roll……

  • dullmind

    Mole was kicked out of google adsense, using a different add service now, did not notice which one.
    Some add services serve up adds with out really vetting where they come from. Hackers can slip
    malware into adds on legit sites. Not much Mole can personally do about it, other than complain to
    the add service.

  • Bankrupt

    ok, I am going to see, how many short contracts my bankroll allows lol ;)

  • goldpackers

    Need another high Monday below 1050 to top or headed to 1125/1200 into October. Look at 07 pattern, spike low on 8-16 and up to new highs into October. We had spike low on 8-17 and headed back up.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well gang are we expecting new highs or at least a test of them later in the day? Seems that we have been going sideways for a while now.

    As a side note ny post wrote a piece on Zerohedge. CNBC is having a field day with this.

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/08212009/business/b

  • mmTesla

    What is the current max pain? I know earlier this week it was 38 on the Q's.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    This is really getting unnerving, but I should be thankful that “they” are providing another opportunity to load up short. Thank you mole for all your hard work it makes doing my own due diligence alot easier. I will try and post some charts and get my head around this market this weekend…… Things seem a lot clearer Saturday morning with a cup of coffee.

  • Vardoger

    /DX retraced 50% of its move off the lows intraday and bouncing. Next stop 78.38 which is the wave 3 low.

  • disrespekt

    No; there is mild resistance at 1999

    My proprietary indicators do show significant overhead tho at infinity

  • ACJ

    they are providing another opportunity for you to put your head on the chopping block again. Run it up, pull back 10pts, bears pile in, run it up another 20, rinse repeat.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    In all likelihood I will be exiting my XLF $15 Sept calls before the close today. A conservative look at the wave count on $BKX shows it may be near completion. It may continue to run but there's no need to press our luck.

    If I can cluck my own horn, the Chicken Oscillator has performed brilliantly — $BKX up 33% since it issued a long signal.

    http://tinyurl.com/m9o7g5

  • goldpackers

    Hopefully this is wave 3 of C and do 4/5 waves into next week and not wave 3 of 1 of C which says much hjgher.

  • annamall

    Looks like soon we will get a further gap up, bands are squeezing again and 1 min SPX is pointing up. ;)

  • ACJ

    we aren't even CLOSE to the top of C yet; everyone and their brother is still shorting this thing! That's not a top, bears have not capitulated yet, they keep reloading.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    YOu thinking new highs?

  • annamall

    Yes, by EOD BH. I would add longs here though.

  • newbear

    I have to agree, people are too eager to short here…

  • annamall

    I couldn't agree more ACJ, seeing the same thing.

  • Tronacate

    I know I probably label things with the wrong letters and shit but this looks very simple and fits pretty well imo:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    It looks like my last post just got sucked into the Disqus random deleter, so I'll post it again without the link this time. You can see the chart by following the blog link from my avatar.

    ****

    In all likelihood I will be exiting my XLF $15 Sept calls before the close today. A conservative look at the wave count on $BKX shows it may be near completion. It may continue to run but there's no need to press our luck.

    If I can cluck my own horn, the Chicken Oscillator has performed brilliantly — $BKX up 33% since it issued a long signal.

  • ACJ

    someone posted a magazine cover, with the Ostrich poking his head out of the ground, implying “is it safe to come out yet”. THAT IS NOT A TOP. That's J6P just realizing he's missing the boat, and about to pile in. J6P is JUST NOW realizing the market is going up. We have a month of hyperventilating to come before we reach a top.

    When you see “BEAR MARKET OVER! NEW BULL MARKET! GURU PREDICTS DOW 40K IN 2010-2011! That's when the top is in. Don't be a sucker

  • disrespekt

    Wow…that is my take on it and has been for sometime too, since the beginning of the crash in 2007.

    I expect that when “it” comes, any nominal money you make will be inaccessible. Consequently, I swung for the fences in 2008 but didn't get the type of grandslam I needed. I always jumped back in w/ LT puts too quickly on the mega rebound rallies and sat thru the drawdown pain to see shit blast past when the trend reasserted. Had I done that on Oct 10 instead of being out on the road with a friend who fucking let his car run out of gas till after market close, I'd not even be here right now b/c my ass'd be retired. Everything since Nov has been a freakin disaster for me, was short the wrong stuff since then; I made a killing shorting HBs and banks, yet went away from that when that was precisely the place to be till March. Now, with the bond market and QE and all this BS, paper money seems to be a fool's errand. I mean we could wake up to a devaluation event of some kind at any point.

    Getting out early in P3 would seem to be the only way out now. Anyone who thinks massive inflation can't exist without a wage/price spiral has never been to Mexico, Argentina, or Brazil, where incomes remain very low, prices high, imported goods mostly unavailable (often due to tariff policies), and inflation stubbornly high for decades.

    You can bet your last dollar that the Fed will print to buy equities if it comes to that. Deflation against the backdrop of a Federal gov't that is the biggest debtor on the planet is a recipe for total and immediate collapse.

  • Lordted

    Nice Chart. I've seen your stuff on here before but didn't get the commentry. Here's to the Orange and Blue cross over. – Looking for 1030 ES to start shorting. 127.2 Fib extension

  • Bankrupt

    you are on a bear site, what do you expect to see here?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I've got 6 Flags and General Growth properties…. I ain't Skerred!

  • Tronacate

    Why not this….I know I don't label right but you get the gist.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • annamall

    Good trade SSC! :-) I mirrored the same thoughts about today. I will do some charts over the weekend and see what kind of retracement we may get next week.

  • newbear

    Well, I hope your growth in the size of your account will be nothing to laugh at. I'm glad I stopped trying to pick a top.

  • annamall

    Looks like classic MM sweeping stops for the past 2 hours, just raking in the commissions, careful on stops.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Round Number, Round Number, Round Number!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    To late long FAS at 77 lol

  • amokta

    we will still be waiting for wave 3 down in 2020 !
    seriously, may be the folks in power can continue to fake the rise, until the genuine economy improves, and then there will be no pull-back as the market then self-supports?

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    I see your reality and choose to ignore it……at my own peril of course. ;-)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    congrat SSC, i gave you props here yesterday

  • PeterK80

    I have to agree with you and ACJ… dollar is so weak and the correlation is still so close. When there are shorts left to squeeze, we can still go higher. Picking a top is like picking a bottom or catching a falling knife… you might get lucky but you might cut your hand off. Rallies like this dont usually end in slow exhaustion…

    With all that said I dont think anyone has a clue.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Nicely done, do we wait for it to cross the line below to start shorting?

  • pgrychah

    We successfully formed M on S&P. Is it time for A? Will you give up when monthly MACD crosses? What is role of MACD in your analysis in general?
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_adh1NtKpt0M/So7dDCGaa

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    hey mole…great minds think alike…..(better than the 2nd half of the saying!)…

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/SmmkOrWrp

  • goldpackers

    I certainly see the possibility that this is just 3 of 1 of C and again if that is the case then 1125 to 1200 into October which would be eirily close to 2007. Still should top Monday/ Tuesday for 1 of C at least even if mega bullish. If minimal pullback next week then load up for 3 of C up. Like DOW (chemical) for upside to hedge my woeful FAZ staged in between 28 and 24.

    Again, FAZ may go to 5 again and reverse split if 1125 to 1200 occurs.

  • marketmaker

    Agree with everyone else. Very nice, Alpha. It looks like you might have called it.

  • pgrychah

    From trading perspective we are due for pullback.
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_adh1NtKpt0M/So7eGIQFH
    especial P&F
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_adh1NtKpt0M/So7eRvB98

  • bist

    That junk bond yield data looks very promising. Very useful data. Thanks for posting it.

    MBS's have gone up everyday this week which is consistent with your junk bond yield data. One thing I've noticed is that MBS data and junk bond data seem to be leading indicators. The junk bond yield started dropping before we made the March low. Then the yield increased briefly as we rallied off the March low – an indication that investors might have been cautious of how long the rally would last.

    Still given that this data tends to lead the markets. I'm probably going to close my long positions end of day. I might pick up a small amount of puts. I'd really like to see which direction the market takes on Monday when/if volume returns to the market.

  • AS2009

    Anna – based on current action what are you seeing ? Currently at bottom of BB on 10 min SpY .. are we breaking down here ?

  • AS2009

    Anna – based on current action what are you seeing ? Currently at bottom of BB on 10 min SpY .. are we breaking down here ?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    waiting for wave iii of i of 3 of the $ to start any time now, when it does, could be fun

  • pgrychah
  • disrespekt

    ok…5m BBs squeezed tighter than average bear's sphincter now a move down to touch the lower BB then it ought to be off to the races up, right?

  • annamall

    I am still long calls, this isn't a breakdown to me. But watching MACD on 15 min and 5 min carefully.

  • SpeedSkt1

    Thanks for the update on the credit spreads. I'll be watching for a higher high in the chart now.

  • annamall

    good post peter. couldn't agree more. I could care less which way the wind blows as long as I catch the draft. :)

  • annamall

    oh well. G/L :)

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    In this situation I'll use a pretty conservative approach that is three steps: blue line breaches white; blue line backtests white; blue line drops below 80. This is to protect me should this last wave extend in a fit of delusion. It guarantees I will miss shorting the exact top but who cares. Backtests like the one I just described typically occur at 2's, B's and sometimes X's. So I should be able to catch the first 3 or C sub-wave, and that's all I'm really interested in anyway.

  • FormulaXTrader

    It is the shorts that are driving the market up. Squeeze after squeeze. Shorting with no weakness showing. Also what's the point of EWT if you never know what wave you are in until after the wave has passed? Everyone has their own count. Seems futile…

  • de3600

    Comparing this recession to the recessions of the 70s and 80s, is like comparing Hurricane Katrina to your average summer storm.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Thanks man, I saw — I replied that I think my lifetime accuracy on wave counts has now breached the 10% mark. So now I'm only wrong 90% of the time, woo hoo!

  • jamesmarkii

    instead of the bears getting 6 inches in the ass we are getting horse penis in the ass

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    good morning – b starting
    http://screencast.com/t/xiBgbRXm5T

  • Vardoger

    Anyone else think we see 1014 on the close or do you think they pump it into the bell?

  • jacksonbrownstourbus

    I implore you, dear readers of this blog, to stop trying to pick a top. Please stop desperately asking “annamall” if she thinks the market will roll over based on 1 min MACD readings. No one knows anything, except that the market is up WAY more than it's down.

    I just saw that TK is rambling about 1029. Next month the top will be 1050 or 1100, according to him or Mole.

    Please save your cash and just buy some X or JBLU — the recovery is probably going to happen, justified or not.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    b started
    http://screencast.com/t/xiBgbRXm5T

    so far looks like C will start at 3PM EST

  • chumprop

    I've got money on a higher high before EOD…

  • BigIslandLife

    Tim Knight 6 minutes ago
    Lester……….

    First, change the avatar, man. It's really gross.

    Second, I know you acquired a bit of a rep. over on E.S., and I've conferred with my buddy mole about you.

    You haven't done anything wrong on Slope in the least, but please understand that, based on the whole ES experience, try to go the extra mile to rely on yourself for your trading decisions. Saying you're going to do something publicly based on what I'm doing is a conversion of responsibility.

    Anyway, I'm not upset with you, but you bring some baggage from ES land, and I want to be fair and let you know that.

    Ouch he said that was a pic of his kid oh well brutal honesty

  • Me_XMan

    Loaded up 1K SDS at $43.30-$43.50 range.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    jack – may be you have to think twice
    may be you have to realize that as oppose to you – weekend trader or or biker or whatever – that are a lot of full time traders here who don't care for tops or bottoms or people like you

    you are getting really annoying now

    on another hand – keep mumbling – it entertains me

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    can u clear my messages from bin backet of discus please

  • springheel_jack

    Buy & hold just seems such a stupid idea with the economy in the toilet & the P/E (reported earnings) on the SPX at 145 and rising.

  • innatedc

    Ah, my favorite “law firm” mailboy is here,

    You “implore” because you genuinely care about us and our “futures” or are you a pumping pimp for your two holdings X and JBLU. BTW, you are aware that more than half the traders on this blog have net worths that would make you cringe…'

    Piss off….

  • Vardoger

    I agree with the first half but the recovery isn't going to happen like you think. It can work but only if the whole world inflates together or if we default, tell the world to screw and annex canada and mexico with the americano currency. The consumer is under way too much stress and the foreign bond holders won't let us keep spending like madmen. If they start to sell bonds Ben will have to crash equities again. Banking system is fucked in Europe and here. I think your a moron thinking this is new bull market, give me a reason why I should believe you except that they are buying AIG, FRE up.

    I haven't been able to pick the top yet and I not about to try…. yet

  • http://thetaildoesnotwagthedog.blogspot.com/ dnarby

    You may be right.

  • jacksonbrownstourbus

    full-time traders don't have a directional bias, at those that make money don't.

    In case your curious, I'm not a full time trader and don't have to be. I only trade options and I do based on TA, more specifically 6/16 EMA cross-overs, 13,34 MACD readings and CCI/RSI overlays.

  • springheel_jack

    I don't know Inna. Last I heard he was worth more than any of us because the works for a law firm & owns some calls.

    Impressive stuff. This could very well be Denny Crane himself.

  • jacksonbrownstourbus

    net worth that would make me cringe? Really? What was your after-tax income from 2004-2008? I'd bet my left eye it doesn't exceed mine.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    u r barking at the wrong tree

  • Vardoger

    The dude want to abide but they're sure as hell not making it easy..

  • innatedc

    LMAO……!!!!! I love Denny Crane…..

  • Earl of

    Anna, please kill this guy, I recognize him from the past under a different name. He is a cancer.

  • Vardoger

    Pencil dick, answer the question. Why is this a new bull market?

  • springheel_jack

    Me too. Not sure I'd rely on his stock tips though. LOL.

  • chumprop

    Fuckin' A…

    You want a rally? I can get you a rally by 3pm…. with nail polish!

  • stxinon

    What is a PE ratio of S&P right now ?

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/chart-of-t

  • grednfer

    Good Job!
    I didn't think it (the BKX) would break through the 46.71….next stop 48.64…then onto 50.00……..the real resistance will be next year at 65.

    What does the Oscillator say the SPX will do on Monday?

  • grednfer

    Good Job!
    I didn't think it (the BKX) would break through the 46.71….next stop 48.64…then onto 50.00……..the real resistance will be next year at 65.

    What does the Oscillator say the SPX will do on Monday?

  • Tronacate

    My chart disappeared……is it just too dumb?

    I'll try again

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • jacksonbrownstourbus

    I'll give you a reason. March-Present SPY rally. Plus, Obama wants a second term. Plus, GS bankers want bonuses.

    But less specially, the world WANTS to believe in this recovery. The entire Dec 2008 – March 2009 down move was based on panic. The panic is gone. The system is flooded with cash. now we start making/buying widgets again.

  • springheel_jack

    I'll second that. Ban the troll.

  • annamall

    I think we see 1027 first Var. :)

  • jacksonbrownstourbus

    I've never had another name on this site.

    Ban me if you want but I'm just trying to help.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    With the amount of hand holding us poor bears are getting from the bulls on here today it almost feels like a top. Just sayin'…

    Maybe I should dump my FNM long now…hmmm…

  • jacksonbrownstourbus

    is that an internet board comment threat?

    pardon me while I change my pants.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Jeez… I'll go get the tape measure.

  • innatedc

    But I don't need a left eye…..but I'll take your year's “salary” and donate it to your favorite charity. I don't need the money…let's just say (and this is as far as I go with this) I am no EMPLOYEE of any entity. Self-made before the age of 40, son.

  • annamall

    Still have target of 1027 by close today that would be the retracement level that looks best to me.

  • Tronacate

    Hmmm…..any comments on my weekly S&P chart?

    try again
    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    bye-bye jack

  • ennuigo

    Animosity Central here today. the mood certainly has changed.

  • anthem

    I'm ok with that as long as it doesn't go higher. I'm short at 1023.50. . . . :-) Stops at 1030. . .

    I'm hoping this call for 1040-1050 next week doesn't happen, but we'll see soon enough . . ..

  • Tronacate

    Hello…just testing to see if my posts are making it

  • Tronacate

    Check out this weekly count I just made C up equal to a-b leg:

    Of course could truncate

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

    see if it stays up

  • Vardoger

    I guess my boy got removed, I actually liked him a bit. Either way I hope he's a smarter lawyer than analyst:

    jacksonbrownstourbus wrote, in response to Vardoger:

    I'll give you a reason. March-Present SPY rally. Plus, Obama wants a second term. Plus, GS bankers want bonuses.

    CLOWN

  • marketmaker

    I support – but don't necessarily agree with – Jackson.

    Essentially, all he's saying is that the “trend is your friend”, and that right now the trend is up.

    Pretty sound advice, I think.

    He is kind of annoying, but he's just expressing an opinion.

  • Tronacate

    That's what I was thinking……what if everybody just prints money at the same time…..interesting experiment but somebody's gonna cheat.

  • Tronacate

    Free speech imo……it's not like you can yell.

    Any reason my chart doesn't stay up?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    b almost complete

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Sometimes Disqus acts odd.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    outdated chart? :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    b almost complete – now without chart

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    anchor

  • CaptainAnarchy

    “People who claim to know jackrabbits will tell you they are primarily motivated by Fear, Stupidity, and Craziness. But I have spent enough time in jack rabbit country to know that most of them lead pretty dull lives; they are bored with their daily routines: eat, fuck, sleep, hop around a bush now and then….No wonder some of them drift over the line into cheap thrills once in a while; there has to be a powerful adrenalin rush in crouching by the side of a road, waiting for the next set of headlights to come along, then streaking out of the bushes with split-second timing and making it across to the other side just inches in front of the speeding front wheels”
    — Hunter S. Thompson

  • jamesmarkii

    the trend is your friend, til it isnt…

  • Tronacate

    This rally looks just like the one after the '29 crash…….but who knows if it falls off a slippery slope. All I know is here in AZ……things are NOT good.
    I don't see anybody spending, contruction is dead. Things may not repeat like the S&L crises where everybody cashed in on cheap real estate.
    I'm a dentist and there are offices closing left and right, new graduates can't get jobs. I sure don't see any recovery yet.

  • mrclam

    judging by his inability to form a reasonable argument, i think he must be a paralegal and not an actual attorney ;)

  • Tronacate

    your charts not posting either?

  • Squidman

    Any lawyer with time on his hands to dither away here is about to become another one of Obama's statistics: unemployed. Start cold calling for clients buddy or you'll really be depending on speculating, like the rest of us.

  • jamesmarkii

    u mean wave b up or subwave b of a-b-c

  • annamall

    ok :) last gap coming soon to there IMHO.

  • disrespekt

    fuck you man!!!!!!!!1

  • grednfer

    So did any of the night owls catch ES 996 last night at 10pst? That was the trade…….It pays to watch TV with a Laptop on the coffee table…….doesn't get much easier than that.

    Although ES broke out of of the 1016-976 range the NQ is still stuck 1640-1560 range.

    A rotation from Tech to Fins would help the SPX and weaken the NDX. So here's how I will hold my ESs because its so very hard to define overnight stops in ES. Short 2-1 NQs against ESs and hold over the weekend. Then I'll just stop the NQs out above 1640. Can anyone think of a better hedge?

    The NDX punched over the 50% fib (1637) by 2 points but then pulled back…..so if it doesn't close over 1637….that might be a good short. But is anything a good short. I though EWZ was a good short at 59………look at the chart…..and now its at 61.

    I think this is all part of a larger conspiracy….the bull “mind conditioning” program sponsored by the federal goverment.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Looks like I got weather coming in. I may lose my setup and have to close positions from my smatphone.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Everyone on this blog knows that Mole is buying March put options as the tape climbs higher. He emphasizes the urgency of doing this now since the premium will get jacked up when P3 gets rolling.

    Here’s the thing. I’m a virgin to options.

    (Matter of fact, I’m a real life virgin too, which is surprising. After all, I started smoking ciggies at age four, and, by age 12, I was rolling my own. At that rate, you’d expect I’d lose all innocence by sixth grade).

    So, I want to bang options right the first time. What do I need to know?

    (Please, spare me the sex ed. I’ve had enough of that lately.)

    Keep in mind that I’m only interested in buying and holding put options. My maximum loss is my premium, right? When do I have to start worrying about theta burn? Should I hold through only part or all of P3? Anything else I need to know?

  • Vardoger

    That's what I think. Reminds me of Paul Tudor Jones in Trader: shorting oil because he knew there was no way that the countries in OPEC would agree to cut production. If you can't even get those guys to agree I don't see the economic powers in the world doing it, at least not anytime soon.

    What do you think would happen if we formed a new currency with Canada and Mexico and told everyone else to fuck off? Obviously China might want to nuke us at first glimpse but it certainly would solve some issues. I know people who believe that this currency has already been printed in case SHTF, they swear Americano's are in warehouses and although it's tinfoil it's not so hard to conceive. Harper always looks suspicious when he talk to Obama and Calderon!

    …tin foil off….

  • innatedc

    Can you imagine this just continuing right to the end with no participation and pinning this price 1022 ES…….?

  • disrespekt

    We are going to print money to buy those bonds or else default. There is no other option at this point. The oil supply situation won't support the growth needed to keep our debt ratio sane even if we could get there via negative real interest rates.

    Lord knows if that means the mkt goes up or down tho.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    b printed – I will TWITT the chart

  • disrespekt

    just me or has IYR been interesting today…caught that pop then it's bled off the rest of the session

  • annamall

    Here we go!

  • newbear

    Again!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    twitted IYR chart

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    twitting them now – discus having a bad day

  • Vardoger

    If we print won't foreigners just sell the bonds? We can't buy our own bonds as it would crash the dollar and we'd be fucking Zimbabwe. Oil demand is fucked right now as growth has come so far off we've been deflating, and we have enough to get through for a while. I don't understand why everyone thinks we are going to get back to growth so quickly when consumer debt is outrageous and the banks balance sheets are toxic. No way do we let them re-lever to the extent they were into and throughout the BOOM and credit lines are and continue to be pulled. If we print too stem deflation your going to wake up one day and the bond market will have no bid, cut in half. Just playing mind games with the Chinese now.

    I really think we can do more strategic stuff with Canada(resources) and Mexico (production.)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    a-b-c (unless b extends above a which is today's high on 5min)

  • prescient11

    I'm calling for an end of day selloff.

  • Tronacate

    Interesting scenario there my friend. Rapid deglobalization. Actually a pretty fucking GOOD idea. I have a hard time wanting to raise China's standard of living at our expense…..just the intellectual property we've given away to there an India makes me wanna puke.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    please take out 1025 so I don't feel like an idiot for covering there earlier today. me and 4700 other contracts at that price when I capitulated on my fade trade.

    ;-p

  • AS2009

    Can someone look at MGM and share their thoughts I have the Sept 9 calls @ 1.05 … bought it on the breakout day that turned into a topping tail … since then the position has deteriorated … now at 0.60 …

    Can I get an objective opinion on this one … cut my losses or hope for this ?

  • MJSgl

    Ruh-rohhhh!

  • ACJ

    why the hell would Canada want ANYTHING to do with the US?

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    Hey folks…..just back from a biz trip to Sweden and getting caught back up with all the doings and news. Stumbled across nicely written article on Yahoo which you may have seen. Hope ya'll had a good week. Wish I stayed in Sweden…nice people and pretty girls too! Have a nice weekend.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-This-Rally-The

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Shit stock in the worst housing market in the US. Sounds like a winner in this market, you should make coin. I'd hold onto it, what's the worst that could happen?

  • molecool

    Just get those options and we'll have six months to manage them.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    added short on margin – stop for “margined positions” 5min close above highest close today 1025.05 SPX

  • molecool

    Sma'tphone? Where are you, Boston?

  • disrespekt

    boom right on cue!

  • ennuigo

    kisses

  • Vardoger

    Reminds me of oil last summer tho, there are factors in play that can juice the market 5-10% up quickly, especially every time new shorts pile on. Look at the ISEE last few days, pros have been buying puts. If we follow through with the breakout it's on for a little while.

    I think the rally in 29' was like 52-58% off the bottom before setting new lows, I'll check later. Either way we are only pushing against 38-39% now.

  • PRSGuitars

    Oddly enough, I'm with you on this — something smells weird even though the setup is exactly hte same…

  • annamall

    :)

  • annamall

    I am closing my SPY Sept calls @ 1027 or darn close to it. here's my last gap I had mentioned from earlier. ;)

  • newbear

    The market is listening to you Anna!

    When you are ready please tell it to sell off. :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    a-b-c gone – stopped from margined short pos for min loss

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Careful careful cos they're banging the futures up.

  • Tronacate

    Try again with chart……just a long term thingy

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    closed out of my long scalps for a hefty day trade profit. Cheers.

  • bshah

    Are you sure not in GS team

  • annamall

    Monday or Tueday at the very least. :) I have limit orders to sell calls here

  • disrespekt

    Foreigners' export ponzis are dependent upon demand somewhere. We're all in for a reality check that we consumed 60 years' worth of production in 30 by borrowing against assumed future growth.

    We're already buying our own bonds. What are we going to do, default SS and Medicare and the $12T in debt?

  • Vardoger

    Attempted breakout, almost hopped on but they are containing it, for now. 2 Extreme sells on the 1min, they need a catalyst or a shitload of money… money already came out of bonds but not sure if it went to the dollar or what. I think I may be done for the day unless they can break it above the flag.

  • annamall

    :-) no just simple florida girl. ;)

  • annamall

    good for you Candle! ;)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    No in Marlyland. That mobile trading platform isn't quite the “fighter jet cockpit” to say the least. ;)

  • disrespekt

    nice bond market fodder from the CBO as posted on TF:

    http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?geti

    Those are some pretty fkin low percentages, and that's IF the Trust Fund had real assets instead of having IOUs from another part of the government that SPENT every last dollar of SS surplus in every year. This chart assumes they can sell those bonds and get the money back. It'll be pretty freakin laughable when SS is selling into these godawful TIC flows

  • Vardoger

    They don't. It would have to be out of absolute necessity.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    POMO tomorrow. Most POMO days recently have a little trough from the prior day. Some finish that up first thing in the morning and then go up; others go down a bit more before rallying in the afternoon. Look at an hourly chart and it's there.

    http://tinyurl.com/kqbgaw (inverse 3x SPXU used to amplify the move)

  • jamesmarkii

    the USD might as well goto zero…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF still has not made a new high…

  • disrespekt

    …who happens to have an entire portfolio of professional photog shots lol

    my avatar…now that is the face of a simple person

  • disrespekt

    that FAS trade worked well…almost bit at 76.9

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    intraday sell signals flashing right now

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I might take a chance and buy it there if it gets there lol

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    never – they will reverse split it

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Damm thing is lagging the general market.Should have bought RIMM instead lol

  • idrincwater

    i usually don't comment at all, but i have to say — your calls have been unbelievable as of late.

  • bhagman

    mole,
    how do you short the Dow Utilities(UTIL)? is there an ETF that tracks it?
    b

  • jamesmarkii

    bullish % must be way higher than 88%
    id guess 92-94% now

  • MJSgl

    Sold my Sep 104 SPY calls for a nice profit (call me Lester, Anna – you've got the touch lately and if you say 1027, well, who the hell am I to argue?) minus my hedge of ITM Aug SPY puts.

    Legged in to the last of my bear costume. Now all in positioned for P3. However, if we go up some more and I get excited, I may have to unleash my fifth bear leg.

    Likely will add some upside hedge if we push up more next week, too.

  • grednfer

    Thats funny Looks like either Smart or Sat…..Like “I'm trading from my Sat phone as I make the final ascent on Everest and waiting for that Geronimo exit!”

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Please, don't. We already saw that image mole posted and that was enough “fifth bear legs” for us, thanks….

  • Vardoger

    Huh? Bearish % on dollar is about 5% I think. That's why it will probably bottom soon imo.

  • mrclam

    We are buying our own bonds right now aren't we?

  • annamall

    We should get one retest and then close down from there. :)

  • innatedc

    XLU is a utilities ETF

  • Woolly Llama

    short XLU or long SDP (ultrashort util)

  • Teich50

    Good call!

  • PRSGuitars

    Was that last touch a minute ago the retest you refer to? I'm cautiously short from up here playing opex fuckery/mean reversion…

  • Me_XMan

    SDS hit my stop-loss $43.10 but didn't execute.
    Gonna leave it there.

  • annamall

    it was very close PRS, but this could be one last bear fake to get the bears all worked up, watching closely.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SRS recouped 50% of downside , was down as much as 9% I thin, now 3.6%

  • MJSgl

    Damn, you must be hangin with Goldman boyz lately. Good calls!

  • annamall

    :)

  • Vardoger

    Secretly yes, through money the pd's get through pomo's and such. It's all hanging by a string and we have to keep China and the foreigner's as comfortable as possible without giving way to deflation…. If they dump they are fucked too, but they aren't going to just let us rape them. Are you saying that you think we can print our money to buy all our bonds and survive?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Rats ..I don't think XLF is going to make a new high.grrrr.Still long from 77. Will pet my rabbits foot..

  • CaptainAnarchy

    I pulled the trigger on a short play for the weekend – planning to close it on Monday morning.

  • mrclam

    Not at all, from a fundamentals point of view, I agree with just about everything you post. I just think that this bias probably colors your trading and makes it a little hard to make money at this point in time :)

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It's still gonna be up good for the day – more than SPX.

  • grednfer

    Its got time for one more blast to 1030!

    This is so ridiculous.

  • jamesmarkii

    1016-1018 there is a gap on the SPX

  • MJSgl

    Lol…that's exactly the image that came to mind

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    But mine is the face of a simple minded person.

  • Brian_mk

    Making my first dip into Options here as well… I think Mole's right on the money.

  • migueladron

    Out of FAS (in at 69) and into FAZ, high likelihood IMHO that Monday we'll see a dip in RIFIN.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Now let's see if this OPX goes out like an eBay auction… ;)

  • bhagman

    thanks.what does VWAP stand for?b

  • molecool

    I LOVE IT!!! Come on guys – this is the time to buy….

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    INTU chart buy 27-28
    http://zstock7.com/?p=1556
    use a 26.5 stop, nobody's perfect!~

  • ropey

    ok all out for the w/e – no idea whether they keep going or retrace but great day – Anna GOOG bizarrely pinned to 465, maybe the GS upgrade yesterday onto their conviction buylist was responsible for messing it up – either way out of that one aswell..

  • mrclam

    or they need a weekend gap

  • ACJ

    they are still calling tops and shorting Mole……

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    holding all shor tpositions over weekend – 100% net short

  • springheel_jack

    Google is your friend mate:

    http://www.lmgtfy.com/?q=VWAP

  • annamall

    I see that Ropey, I thought that was strange for sure, no strike there. ?? Looks like the sec retest was close enough, I am out too. good weekend Ropey and everyone :-)

  • dollar

    long TZA at 14.05

  • Lordted

    Nats cock short of my sell order – just have to wait for Monday… Knowing my luck it won't get there…. Have a good weekend America.

  • jamesmarkii

    someone painted the close…

  • springheel_jack

    You're a brave man David.

    I'm short ES at 1025 over the weekend, but mostly I'm long cash.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Sold XLF calls for +50%

  • raised_by_wolves

    Done.

    BOT +10 SPY 100 March 10 70 PUT @ 1.06 CBOE

    BOT +15 SPY 100 March 10 65 PUT @ .74 CBOE

  • bshah

    what a perfection.. f…ed up big time.. This is called f…ing piracy… All in open RAPE…
    They decide to close it on 9500 DOW, 1025 on SPX, 2020 NAS.. wow..
    Net short.. to hell with it..

  • disrespekt

    I am holding a rack of Dec and Jan puts…staying short and tuning this day to day BS out. Very long energy, gold, and the bonds the USG is buying off of me in my IRAs. If we hyperinflate my ret accts will go ballistic.

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, energy & gold tracking the market closely, except for gas.

  • thunda72

    Nice….

  • springheel_jack

    Have a good weekend Anna. You were on fire this week. Way to go. :)

  • Tronacate

    Noticed that too. I mapped out a scenario with this being wave 2 up and topping at approx 1134 which is just above 50% retracement of the whole down leg and sits right at the tail of the green candle on 9/18/08 just a little above the point of recog.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good to know that I'm not the only options virgin here. I wonder though if I'm the only virgin virgin.

  • buyemsellem2000

    I'm with ya. 20% position at 14.02. Sold all longs today including wife's 401.

  • Tronacate

    My plan is exit all shorts on monday's pullback (I hope) and ride the wave up with reduced positions to preserve capital for the coming down party.

    I've been fighting this tape all the way up….what a fool…..stupid stupid stupid.

  • SpeedSkt1

    Should be an interesting week next week. No question that today's move was driven in part by MM short lots of inventory who got whalloped and had to come in and buy more stock…….the gamma on some of this stuff is nuts. Imagine being short the SPY 102 calls from earlier this week. That's a disaster when you try to mange the position this morning.

  • mrclam

    Would the close give us a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly?

  • Bankrupt

    shorted the fuck out of it after the close @ 1025.50

    maybe should have pulled the trigger before but didn't want to deal with some freak close

  • AS2009

    I closed my JPM 42.5 calls near the close too … please do continue sharing your thoughts on the banks … :)

    Also .. if you have a moment … can you look at MGM and share thoughts I have the Sept 9 calls @ 1.05 … bought it on the breakout day that turned into a topping tail … since then the position has deteriorated … now at 0.60 …

    Can I get an objective opinion on this one … cut my losses or hope for this ?

  • newbear

    As long as you have enough to stay in the game. You can make it back up. Been there, done that.:)

  • marketmaker

    “Special Update:

    Bank Failure Looming?

    I've heard from a pretty reliable source that a major regional bank with more than 100 locations is under FDIC control control as of this hour and they will likely be announced by FDIC after the market close today. Not certain and not verified, but I Guaranty this will be interesting. Are there more? Click the FDIC site later on today….after the close.

    Meantime, my friend Robin Landry says he's got a bearish divergence sell signal…not that we might get get a short nominal high increase from here, but our 38.2% Fibonacci bounce is done, and a double stochastic sell…and the list goes on.

    Damn, I should have moved money around to play the short side next week. Oh well…”
    _________________________
    http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

  • newbear

    I'm there with you, it's been too painful to short early besides, the KY is running dry.

  • annamall

    Just picked up some SPY 101 puts for next week. :)

  • Tronacate

    The dollar should strengthen with Bernanke talking about easing out of the stimulus. Once all the cash for clunkers, cash for washers and dryers is over and they finish up with the money printing, the big down should start….think? Get all the mutualies back fully invested and then tank it again for maximum pain. Sound about right?

  • marketmaker

    That's been my experience, too. I'm thinking a change in my game plan is in order.

  • annamall

    Thanks you too Jack! picked up some SPY sept 101 puts for Mondaay :)

  • Woolly Llama

    volume weighted average price

  • disrespekt

    yes…the weekly candle engulfs the previous doji lookin one and the one before that too

  • Tronacate

    Hanging in there but definitely not enjoyable…….especially when I look at lost PROFITS…….I thought I had become more market neutral, but my cunicism damages my trading……need to be more open minded and smarter to the herd mentality…..definitely learning some hard lessons.

  • Bankrupt

    glad we are on the same boat, annie…have a nice weekend ;)

  • marketmaker

    Sorry if this is a double post….

    Special Update:

    Bank Failure Looming?

    I've heard from a pretty reliable source that a major regional bank with more than 100 locations is under FDIC control control as of this hour and they will likely be announced by FDIC after the market close today. Not certain and not verified, but I Guaranty this will be interesting. Are there more? Click the FDIC site later on today….after the close.

    Meantime, my friend Robin Landry says he's got a bearish divergence sell signal…not that we might get get a short nominal high increase from here, but our 38.2% Fibonacci bounce is done, and a double stochastic sell…and the list goes on.

    Damn, I should have moved money around to play the short side next week. Oh well…
    __________________
    http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

  • mrclam

    Picked up some long dated puts, along with the first lot of my call vertical on the SPY, in case we decide to gap up monday and fuck all the bears again.

  • Huck

    It stands for “Can't you use Google like everyone else on the planet”! ;-P

    Sorry, but it's been an annoying day, and that's about the 80th time the question's been asked on ES.

  • Tronacate

    It's so easy to have a bias……it's even worse when the bias is dead wrong.

  • mrclam

    so…a sign we're done consolidating and ready to move upwards? :X

  • LegendC

    ….on a technical note, I have to use the Microsoft Firewall Proxy client at work to let TOS traffic out.

  • Tronacate

    How do you get an avatar on discus?

  • chumprop

    If everyone is going short over the weekend for a short term play, what's to stop them from gapping it up Monday?

  • Tronacate

    What kind of computer setup do you run???….platform…..

  • Tronacate

    What kind of computer setup do you run???….platform…..

  • grednfer

    When do futures stop trading 2:15 pacific?

  • marketmaker

    Ok, I'll try this a third time, w/o the link this time(post not getting through)…

    “Special Update:

    Bank Failure Looming?

    I've heard from a pretty reliable source that a major regional bank with more than 100 locations is under FDIC control control as of this hour and they will likely be announced by FDIC after the market close today. Not certain and not verified, but I Guaranty this will be interesting. Are there more? Click the FDIC site later on today….after the close.”

  • annamall

    yes now. 3 screens

  • Tronacate

    I wouldn't be surprised one bit…..but in this case I think I would fade the gap big time. Just have to wait and see how it plays out eh?

  • chumprop

    Can you send me info on how you do this? I am trying to setup NinjaTrader to work from work.

    I can get the proxy to work with TOS (enter it in during the login), but I cannot figure out how to do this with NinjaTrader.

  • drewallin83

    lol thought u didn't hold “dynamite”?

  • annamall

    Me too Bankrupt! :) you have a good weekend :)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i think we still have 1-2 days of upside, i still believe 1030-5 will mark the top, just shy of it today
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Tronacate

    I'm sure it's Guaranty……they already have a spanish bank buying them. Don't hold me to it though

  • disrespekt

    jeez man, I dunno…the weekly 3yr looks like a massive IH&S w/ a target wanting to close that open gap at SPY 110.3. I'm certainly not happy having any short positions right now but what's done is done…I'll reevaluate after Labor Day

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    VIX closed flat???

  • Tronacate

    Here's my big picture map……just conjecture, but workable I believe. There are alot of phi turn dates coming in sept-nov.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • annamall

    follow the blank one you have now go to view full profile, then to account and under profile you can upload a pic it's easy :)

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Correction is coming and institutions going long VIX futures into October.

  • Tronacate

    Yeah man…..pretty much…….hey…how do you do a discus avatar? My ignorance is getting exposed here

  • mrclam

    1:15

  • Tronacate

    Thanks sweetheart (hope you don't mind) :) You like to fish in the Keys?

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    It's called Oktober Fest :-)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    disqus ==> account ===> profile ===> change pic

  • jamesmarkii

    post roaster
    :)

  • grednfer

    I have the top of the descending channel (Oct 07) at 1036 on Monday….High of Oct 11 2007 and high of Aug 25 2008…..

    I'd post a chart but it gets deleted.

    How are you plotting your ascending wedge. Just give me the two lows.

  • marketmaker

    I hate to say it, but I'm inclined to agree, based on my very rudimentary analysis below:

    http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/4486/2009082

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • TheMacroEconomist

    Nope Globex is done for the day and weekend now. 4:15 New York / 3:15 Chicago / 1:15 San Fran.

    Reopen Sunday at 6PM New York / 5PM Chicago / 3PM San Fran.

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, I went short EOD as well. Short at ES 1025.

    Down hard Monday hopefully, though I would buy that dip I think.

  • Tronacate

    hmmm

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'll dig up a great video on how FDIC “does” bank takeovers on Fridays. See Plunge Protection in action!

  • dollar

    Every Friday…

  • funkypenguin

    Since Mr. Market is &*^%$ me right and left (I'm getting emotionally bullish and going short makes me want to puke – usually means we are near a top), a little arbitrage play looks nice.

    UNG price at close: $11.35, NAV: 9.94 e.g. it's trading at a 14% premium to NAV. And steps are being take remedy this – see http://bit.ly/Gw2EU

    So long QGV9 (e-mini NG) and short UNG is the arbitrage play

    Of course if it continues to trade at a premium, I'm effed

  • bhagman

    thanks, huck.  google worked.

  • LegendC

    DL this and install it on your client PC, then put the proxy settings into it. Uninstall from addremove if it does not work. Good Luck.

    http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx

  • MJSgl

    Lol…that's exactly the image that came to mind

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    But mine is the face of a simple minded person.

  • Brian_mk

    Making my first dip into Options here as well… I think Mole's right on the money.

  • migueladron

    Out of FAS (in at 69) and into FAZ, high likelihood IMHO that Monday we'll see a dip in RIFIN.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Now let's see if this OPX goes out like an eBay auction… ;)

  • bhagman

    thanks.what does VWAP stand for?b

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I LOVE IT!!! Come on guys – this is the time to buy….

  • http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/ zstock, Pro Select!

    INTU chart buy 27-28
    http://zstock7.com/?p=1556
    use a 26.5 stop, nobody's perfect!~

  • ropey

    ok all out for the w/e – no idea whether they keep going or retrace but great day – Anna GOOG bizarrely pinned to 465, maybe the GS upgrade yesterday onto their conviction buylist was responsible for messing it up – either way out of that one aswell..

  • mrclam

    or they need a weekend gap

  • ACJ

    they are still calling tops and shorting Mole……

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    holding all shor tpositions over weekend – 100% net short

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I see that Ropey, I thought that was strange for sure, no strike there. ?? Looks like the sec retest was close enough, I am out too. good weekend Ropey and everyone :-)

  • dollar

    long TZA at 14.05

  • Lordted

    Nats cock short of my sell order – just have to wait for Monday… Knowing my luck it won't get there…. Have a good weekend America.

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    someone painted the close…

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    You're a brave man David.

    I'm short ES at 1025 over the weekend, but mostly I'm long cash.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Sold XLF calls for +50%. Although I do expect an additional push higher next week. And I do expect banks to find a peak before the indexes (although I don't know if this will be *the* peak)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Done.

    BOT +10 SPY 100 March 10 70 PUT @ 1.06 CBOE

    BOT +15 SPY 100 March 10 65 PUT @ .74 CBOE

  • bshah

    what a perfection.. f…ed up big time.. This is called f…ing piracy… All in open RAPE…
    They decide to close it on 9500 DOW, 1025 on SPX, 2020 NAS.. wow..
    Net short.. to hell with it..

  • disrespekt

    I am holding a rack of Dec and Jan puts…staying short and tuning this day to day BS out. Very long energy, gold, and the bonds the USG is buying off of me in my IRAs. If we hyperinflate my ret accts will go ballistic.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Yes, energy & gold tracking the market closely, except for gas.

  • thunda72

    Nice….

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Have a good weekend Anna. You were on fire this week. Way to go. :)

  • Tronacate

    Noticed that too. I mapped out a scenario with this being wave 2 up and topping at approx 1134 which is just above 50% retracement of the whole down leg and sits right at the tail of the green candle on 9/18/08 just a little above the point of recog.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Good to know that I wasn't the only options virgin here. I wonder though if I'm the only virgin virgin.

  • buyemsellem2000

    I'm with ya. 20% position at 14.02. Sold all longs today including wife's 401.

  • Tronacate

    My plan is exit all shorts on monday's pullback (I hope) and ride the wave up with reduced positions to preserve capital for the coming down party.

    I've been fighting this tape all the way up….what a fool…..stupid stupid stupid.

  • SpeedSkt1

    Should be an interesting week next week. No question that today's move was driven in part by MM short lots of inventory who got whalloped and had to come in and buy more stock…….the gamma on some of this stuff is nuts. Imagine being short the SPY 102 calls from earlier this week. That's a disaster when you try to mange the position this morning.

    Nasdaq, the leader, not feeling the S&P move to new highs. I went long some Sept QQQQ 40 puts

  • mrclam

    Would the close give us a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly? Don't have access to TOS charts from work

  • Bankrupt

    shorted the fuck out of it after the close @ 1025.50

    maybe should have pulled the trigger before but didn't want to deal with some freak close

  • AS2009

    I closed my JPM 42.5 calls near the close too … please do continue sharing your thoughts on the banks … :)

    Also .. if you have a moment … can you look at MGM and share thoughts I have the Sept 9 calls @ 1.05 … bought it on the breakout day that turned into a topping tail … since then the position has deteriorated … now at 0.60 …

    Can I get an objective opinion on this one … cut my losses or hope for this ?

  • newbear

    As long as you have enough to stay in the game. You can make it back up. Been there, done that.:)

  • marketmaker

    “Special Update:

    Bank Failure Looming?

    I've heard from a pretty reliable source that a major regional bank with more than 100 locations is under FDIC control control as of this hour and they will likely be announced by FDIC after the market close today. Not certain and not verified, but I Guaranty this will be interesting. Are there more? Click the FDIC site later on today….after the close.

    Meantime, my friend Robin Landry says he's got a bearish divergence sell signal…not that we might get get a short nominal high increase from here, but our 38.2% Fibonacci bounce is done, and a double stochastic sell…and the list goes on.

    Damn, I should have moved money around to play the short side next week. Oh well…”
    _________________________
    http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

  • newbear

    I'm there with you, it's been too painful to short early besides, the KY is running dry.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Just picked up some SPY 101 puts for next week. :)

  • Tronacate

    The dollar should strengthen with Bernanke talking about easing out of the stimulus. Once all the cash for clunkers, cash for washers and dryers is over and they finish up with the money printing, the big down should start….think? Get all the mutualies back fully invested and then tank it again for maximum pain. Sound about right?

  • marketmaker

    That's been my experience, too. I'm thinking a change in my game plan is in order.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Thanks you too Jack! picked up some SPY sept 101 puts for Mondaay :)

  • Woolly Llama

    volume weighted average price

  • disrespekt

    yes…the weekly candle engulfs the previous doji lookin one and the one before that too

  • Tronacate

    Hanging in there but definitely not enjoyable…….especially when I look at lost PROFITS…….I thought I had become more market neutral, but my cynicism damages my trading……need to be more open minded and smarter to the herd mentality…..definitely learning some hard lessons.

  • Bankrupt

    glad we are on the same boat, annie…have a nice weekend ;)

  • marketmaker

    Sorry if this is a double post….

    Special Update:

    Bank Failure Looming?

    I've heard from a pretty reliable source that a major regional bank with more than 100 locations is under FDIC control control as of this hour and they will likely be announced by FDIC after the market close today. Not certain and not verified, but I Guaranty this will be interesting. Are there more? Click the FDIC site later on today….after the close.

    Meantime, my friend Robin Landry says he's got a bearish divergence sell signal…not that we might get get a short nominal high increase from here, but our 38.2% Fibonacci bounce is done, and a double stochastic sell…and the list goes on.

    Damn, I should have moved money around to play the short side next week. Oh well…
    __________________
    http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

  • mrclam

    Picked up some long dated puts, along with the first lot of my call verticals on the SPY, in case we decide to gap up monday and fuck all the bears again.

  • Huck

    It stands for “Can't you use Google like everyone else on the planet”! ;-P

    Sorry, but it's been an annoying day, and that's about the 80th time the question's been asked on ES.

  • Tronacate

    It's so easy to have a bias……it's even worse when the bias is dead wrong.

  • mrclam

    so…a sign we're done consolidating and ready to move upwards? :X

  • LegendC

    ….on a technical note, I have to use the Microsoft Firewall Proxy client at work to let TOS traffic out.

  • Tronacate

    How do you get an avatar on discus?

  • chumprop

    If everyone is going short over the weekend for a short term play, what's to stop them from gapping it up Monday?

    We still haven't hit the top resistance line of the ascending wedge on the SPX that would be around SPX 1034+…

  • Tronacate

    What kind of computer setup do you run???….platform…..

  • Tronacate

    What kind of computer setup do you run???….platform…..

  • grednfer

    When do futures stop trading 2:15 pacific?

  • marketmaker

    Ok, I'll try this a third time, w/o the link this time(post not getting through)…

    “Special Update:

    Bank Failure Looming?

    I've heard from a pretty reliable source that a major regional bank with more than 100 locations is under FDIC control control as of this hour and they will likely be announced by FDIC after the market close today. Not certain and not verified, but I Guaranty this will be interesting. Are there more? Click the FDIC site later on today….after the close.”

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yes now finally . 3 screens
    Really helped my trading. :)

  • Tronacate

    I wouldn't be surprised one bit…..but in this case I think I would fade the gap big time. Just have to wait and see how it plays out eh?

  • chumprop

    Can you send me info on how you do this? I am trying to setup NinjaTrader to work from work.

    I can get the proxy to work with TOS (enter it in during the login), but I cannot figure out how to do this with NinjaTrader.

  • drewallin83

    lol thought u didn't hold “dynamite”?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Me too Bankrupt! :) you have a good weekend :)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i think we still have 1-2 days of upside, i still believe 1030-5 will mark the top, just shy of it today
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Tronacate

    I'm sure it's Guaranty……they already have a spanish bank buying them. Don't hold me to it though

  • disrespekt

    jeez man, I dunno…the weekly 3yr looks like a massive IH&S w/ a target wanting to close that open gap at SPY 110.3. I'm certainly not happy having any short positions right now but what's done is done…I'll reevaluate after Labor Day

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    VIX closed flat???

  • Tronacate

    Here's my big picture map……just conjecture, but workable I believe. There are alot of phi turn dates coming in sept-nov.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    follow the blank one you have now go to view full profile, then to account and under profile you can upload a pic it's easy :)

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Correction is coming and institutions going long VIX futures into October.

  • Tronacate

    Yeah man…..pretty much…….hey…how do you do a discus avatar? My ignorance is getting exposed here

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Economic Calendar for next week..

    Major G10 Releases/Events – All times are GMT. The time now is 21 Aug, 20:27.

    Date Time Country Indicator Period Previous Forecast

    8/24/2009 1:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM JUL 5.70% - -
    8/24/2009 1:30 AU New Motor Vehicle Sales YoY JUL -7.20% - -
    8/24/2009 5:00 JN Supermarket Sales (YoY) JUL -4.40% - -
    8/24/2009 9:00 EC Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) JUN -0.20% 1.80%
    8/24/2009 9:00 EC Industrial New Orders SA (YoY) JUN -30.10% -28.30%
    8/24/2009 12:30 CA Retail Sales MoM JUN 1.20% 0.20%
    8/24/2009 12:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos MoM JUN 0.70% 0.40%
    8/24/2009 12:30 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index JUL -1.8 - -

  • mrclam

    1:15

  • Tronacate

    Thanks sweetheart (hope you don't mind) :) You like to fish in the Keys?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's called Oktober Fest :-)

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    disqus ==> account ===> profile ===> change pic

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    post roaster
    :)

  • grednfer

    I have the top of the descending channel (Oct 07) at 1036 on Monday….High of Oct 11 2007 and high of Aug 25 2008…..

    I'd post a chart but it gets deleted.

    How are you plotting your ascending wedge. Just give me the two lows.

  • marketmaker

    I hate to say it, but I'm inclined to agree, based on my very rudimentary analysis below:

    http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/4486/2009082

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • TheMacroEconomist

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Yes, I went short EOD as well. Short at ES 1025.

    Down hard Monday hopefully, though I would buy that dip I think.

  • Tronacate

    hmmm

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'll dig up a great video on how FDIC “does” bank takeovers on Fridays. See Plunge Protection in action!

  • dollar

    Every Friday…

  • funkypenguin

    Since Mr. Market is &*^%$ me right and left (I'm getting emotionally bullish and going short makes me want to puke – usually means we are near a top), a little arbitrage play looks nice.

    UNG price at close: $11.35, NAV: 9.94 e.g. it's trading at a 14% premium to NAV. And steps are being take remedy this – see http://bit.ly/Gw2EU

    So long QGV9 (e-mini NG) and short UNG is the arbitrage play

    Of course if it continues to trade at a premium, I'm effed

  • bhagman

    thanks, huck.  google worked.

  • LegendC

    DL this and install it on your client PC, then put the proxy settings into it. Uninstall from addremove if it does not work. Good Luck.

    http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/details.aspx

  • Anonymous

    6-25/26        8-28/31 is end of square

  • http://www.wiredpirate.com Deuterium is Heavy

    No, I am not suggesting that Prechter is knowingly part of some conspiracy. However, Bloomberg may have allowed him on this time just to lure the bears into a trap. It seems an early call to be exiting the markets just yet, especially if you’re a proponent of Elliot Wave Theory.

    Prechter’s appearance on Bloomberg TV October 19, 2007.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjS60TaD_J8

    Quote from that piece: “I’ve been negative for the past few years.”
    See how early he was on that call? He was looking at the sentiment indicators, which had been at bullish extremes FOR YEARS. Those indicators can reach extremes and stay there for a very long time; they’re not always indicators of impending collapse.

    Robert Prechter advises clients to cover their short positions on Bloomberg TV, February 25, 2009.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SG7XGcL7JE

    “Definitely not a bullish call, we’re still not buying stocks…still a mistake to be buying them (stocks).”

    Though the timing of the short cover was pretty good, he missed the beginning of the rally from March.

    He also called the gold market “overdone.” It has been trading a very tight range since that call, though he was right about it having peaked right before his appearance. Not a bad call. He also said that, philosophically, he’s a gold bug.

    “The dollar made a very major low.” That was a wrong, bad call. The dollar has fallen since then.

    So to say that Prechter anticipated the rally from the March 6 low is not true from watching these Bloomberg clips. It seems that he took some credit for saying “go long in March,” but he merely said “cover your shorts.”

    Prechter on Bloomberg, May 29, 2009, during the mid-point of this Primary 2 rally.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsLnch6IU_0





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