Timbeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer!

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Kind of neat double layered expanding horn on ES. The lines do seem to be important, at least until they aren't. Hell i dont even know what a sub-minuette wave is, but I want to start counting it.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/expanding-alphahorn-top-es.html

The TLT/TBT trade worked well again today upon the auction. Nice stall before the sale and ramp afterwards.

Can we just punch thru the low of the day please?

Short term bounce here, no worries! :)

YES PLEASE!!

I can see now! Someone up in heaven doesn't want me to make money today. Microsoft just issued a bunch of unexpected, out of cycle security patches so I'll be tied up with those much of the rest of the day.

Hopefully your day is going better Anna! :)

Hey Mac, sorry to hear that! :( we will miss ya....

I am having fun today...(nothing new there :-D)

I'm still delta neutral since before the Treasury auction. So if a clear trend appears, I can drop off one side and ride it - provided I see it of course.

My 30-minute chart:

http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/3889/20090825prophet.png

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Here is the "smallest" Bloomberg report in history. It is also the most important Bloomberg report in history.
The Federal ruling that the Fed must disclose its secretive recent bank activity and the reappointment of Fed Chairman Bernanke are connected events.
The following is the entire report. It is one sentence long.
Fed Must Make Public Reports on Emergency Loans, U.S. Judge Says
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve must make public reports about recipients of emergency loans from U.S. taxpayers under programs created to address the financial crisis, a federal judge ruled.
More…
Federal Reserve loses suit demanding transparency
Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:39pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A federal judge on Monday ruled against an effort by the U.S. Federal Reserve to block disclosure of companies that participated in and securities covered by a series of emergency funding programs as the global credit crisis began to intensify.
In a 47-page opinion, Chief District Judge Loretta Preska of the federal court in Manhattan said the central bank failed to show that disclosure would cause borrowers in the Federal Reserve System to suffer "imminent competitive harm," by stigmatizing them for using Fed lending programs.
"The board essentially speculates on how a borrower might enter a downward spiral of financial instability if its participation in the Federal Reserve lending programs were to be disclosed," she wrote. "Conjecture, without evidence of imminent harm, simply fails to meet the board’s burden."
Monday’s ruling comes as lawmakers and investors demand greater disclosure in how the government manages a series of programs designed to lift the economy out of its deepest recession in decades.
The case arose when two Bloomberg News reporters submitted requests under the federal Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) about actions the Fed took to shore up the financial system in 2007 and early 2008, including an expansion of lending programs and the sale of Bear Stearns Cos to JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N).
More…

http://screencast.com/t/FRtf0WfNne

/ES perspective, agree with misinheritance below...break down or push to 1045 or 1050

ES did trade A LOT lower overnight, when Shanghai was down 5.3%. Then China's Premier released a promising statement about money policy, Shanghai retraced 50% and here we are with ES.

I just got off the phone with Lester...He won Powerball. lol

But he'll just lose the ticket before he gets down there to cash it in.

LOOOOOOOOOL ! +1
That was too funny!

Wave 4 triangle? Scalping the inside and OCO on the breakout.

Trade idea, OI short.

http://screencast.com/t/5jB2nkDj
Also on the blog for future ease of reference.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/oi-trade-idea-unfortunately-options-are.html

This is it right here. Do or die. Break through 1027 or stall yet again.

$TRIN getting close to 1!!!

Updated euro/usd channel:

http://docs.google.com/View?id=dnzgjrx_21g7rwfdd9

thanks Fuw! Still short EUR/USD long UUP march 24

Not playing the forex game myself, so just watching it for kicks ;)

You should! Great charts Fuw, keep em coming...my short EUR/USD doing great!

Look at that DTO!!! Hate it! Had order in to buy SDS and FAZ with a 50% pullback. Both filled. Decided to play it safer with DTO so instead of 50% went for 61.8%. It corrected 3 cents below 50% and took off. Could have dumped it for $6 profit!

xle tanking nicely making new low of the days

Dollar is bumping up against high of day.

Here`s what i see....

http ://www.screencast.com/t/7J8RFo7dkPy

Bad link?

some http links are getting blocked by discus, so they add a space after http to prevent blocking, however my link are posting fine. go figure.

TRIN has been doing well today

Crude is really taking it up the rear today....

Keristen

Think about reconsidering playing DTO in the future. It moves quick. I went from being underwater to being in the clouds in 20mins.

I'm tracking both of them right now. SCO is definitely not performing as well, Isaiah! :-D

It is quite refreshing to trade my system again, and I really don't care about what really is happening or long term directions. Cash at night is a plus!

Mole,
The S&P 18 month ma is at 1044 right now. There was an article on zerohedge this weekend about it. Should be a good area to go short. It's still coming down so we'll hit it sooner than later.

need bears of all shapes, sizes, and colors..

check in!

were you a Polar bear and just saw Palin? :)

Little EW...

IMO wave 3 of C has finished @ HOD, now i would expect a 38% retrace before a new high, target will be arround 1010-1015.

Top should not be too far from today high, i will say arround 1042 will be the top for this P2.....if my count is correct of course.

nice dump :) managed to catch the tailend - question is gapfill yay or nay?

I say YAH! LOL

Thought for sure they were going to do it earlier today, hopefully they get it here

Looks like 1pm was our turning point! yeeee-hahhhh

Anna,

How far do you think we will drop today?

I wouldn't be surprised (and quite satisfied for the moment) to see 1026-27 EOD, another doji?

WE should test the lows back in March in about 2 hours...lol

ohhhhh (salivating) (drooling) that would be so nice! :-D

POT testing support on the EMAs and gap support

And I mean red on positions, sorry, I'm looking at my chart, looking for some selling or buying here.

All I see is attm is chop chop chop.

Latest just happened after Toyota was claimed to have said they'd cut production by 10%. (Is that a rumor of a rumor, hehe?)

http://i27.tinypic.com/29z7rx1.jpg 512tick look at a H&S (though the RS overthrew, weak volume though).

http://i30.tinypic.com/n2ogt3.jpg 15min look, the rectangle is gap support. Notice the divergence between price and my indicator on the bottom.

If we break 1027, I'll be holding, if we fiddle around and approach it with weak volume, I'm out.

Chart set up here shows the test, now is the time when I think we know if we see red or not today.

How do you like my mojo bitches!!!!

I said earlier Pres, that 1pm would be our turning point I thought and so far so AWESOME!

:-D

You are on a role for the past week, please continue indefinitely. :)

where's mole with those pictures. lol.

So far perrrrrrrrrfect Anna!

SPX chart update
http ://screencast.com/t/haVsfXpLe

David, you have extra space after http, so link doesnt work.

put it on purpose so disqus would not yank my post

Roger that, sad that functionality is lost.

As much as people want Wave 3 for profit opporutnity, there is also going to be a lot of serious bad shit that comes with Wave 3. That said...my puts and bear call spreads are doing fine today

That's the only way he can post or it deletes his messages.

it is like "your shoe laces are untied"
"oh, thank you so much - what is your name?"

Or it's like being told your shoe laces are untied...when you're wearing sandals.

ohps, sorry, did not you your answer

XLF hit major price resistance at $14.75...perfect short entry with stop at $15.

I'm going to put my life savings in AIG. lol

I recently put my life savings in cash. But this AIG thing sounds like a hot tip. "blue horseshoe loves anacot steel"

If it's good enough for blue horseshoe, it's good enough for me.

1min channel in euro/usd to watch:

http://docs.google.com/View?id=dnzgjrx_19hdzg29gc

AWESOME chart Fuw, thanks! :-D

You're welcome. It bounced again right at the top, so channel still holding. Approaching the mid-line now, which might give us a hint about the late day action in stocks.

edit:
http://docs.google.com/View?id=dnzgjrx_21g7rwfdd9

1660 target was almost reached increased positions of QID. This could very be the top but I would be more confortable calling a top at 1095 on the spx.

March lows below us...drifting, falling...

Closed TNA as well, now 5% long.

if you're not short F, do it now

alpha - Annamall has been a bad girl - she did not listen to me when I asked: "are you going to sell F at 8.26?"
She decided to call it "an investment"

I did I did silly, F is long gone, I am shorting it now! hahahah had you guys on that one. :)

so, you were telling us that is was a good long investment while you were selling it?
hmm...

isn't that is what all the "so called" experts do? ;-P

I wonder if you and Mole are related - he is cheating on "first" contest :) (J/K)

well about a week or so ago i posted that it was my favorite short and she said, she did indeed sell it after all, blamed the whole thing on hormones, which they can always get away with ;>)

Speaking of hormones, women traders have higher levels of testosterone than most....just saying.

:-)

The trend is still up. Retail (XRT), which I recommended about a week and a half ago, has been going up steadily. It's up about 3% just for today.

good trade!
just looked at RTH - it has reached W5 target of 85.20+ on 30min chart and looks ready for abc now

David,
When you have a moment, could you recommend some reading on the abc corrective hypothesis and determining price targets/timeframes? I assume you're referring to an abc EWT correction, right?

A hungry mind is a happy mind.

Thank you!

TC - all my "waves knowledge" came from 3 pages of Jason Perl's book - so I will have to take a pss on this one in order not to confuse you. There are a lot of EW experts here who can expalin it to you - and every time you will get different version :)

Sorry I havent posted in a while, the new apartment I moved into for school is having internet problems so I'm having to deal with 56k download speeds.... not fun at all

Took off 25% of my long Sept 60 IWM call position at a 50%+ profit, took the money and bought more Dec 50 IWM puts. The theta from the septembers was really kicking my ass, so I'll be rolling the rest over pretty soon.

I'm really stoked about my Master's program though, were going to do all sorts of sick stuff. The program is getting $1M from the FSU alumni association and we're going to be running the one and only student managed fund that is allowed to short, trade futures, and trade options. We're also getting a Bloomberg terminal installed along with a bunch of monitors and whatnot so its going to be a legit trading room, and there is going to always be someone monitoring it during market hours I think...... luckily I'm the only person in the entire class who has real, legitimate experience trading (if you can believe that, in a class of Finance Masters students you'd think someone else would trade lol)

You know that seeing real markets in action will be an eye opener for some in that class! If we really had efficient markets, rational investors, volatility as the variance of return, etc., etc., we wouldn't be here trading. ;)

Sounds really cool. I wish we had that when I was in school. Closest we got was an FX money game. Play money, of course - winner got an extra 1/3 of a letter grade, though.

The count goes on? I don't see anything up there.

No. That's not a comment on Mole's post. I can't see anything but a big blank space under his comment, "The count goes on". Is there supposed to be a chart there?

check javascript blocker

I agree. The issue is not what might happen according to a count, but what is happening right now. Right now, the trend is up.

Could it be.. Instead of the bulls reseting the stochs to ramp up, the bears are now allowing the stochs to max out to sell off eod?? Reminds me of the the good old days selling off into the close.

It's not just today. The trend has been up for a number of days.

I guess I am taking Friday off and loading up with some physical gold.

If anyone else wants to know about disrespekt's tip, here's the link:
http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFDressRehearsalForTheLastContango.pdf

btw, thanks, disrespekt, I was thinking to buy physical for so long now but just too lazy because I have to go to Switzerland to get it ;)

Hey no problem man. I should have gotten out of the market and loaded up when kilos were $24k apiece. At least you can buy/sell OTC there.

Gov trying to borrow 42 billion @ 1pm, I say this may be our turning point today! :)

Who the fuck borrow US money? Dumb chinese....

only 42 million! they are getting reasonable. I forgot they knew the word "million".

I meant billion ooops hahahah

you sure it wasn't $42 Billion?

yes, just corrected my freudian slip LOL

Who the FDIC.......?

September top..!!!

As i posted awhile back , a chart of where we would be today,,, visa vi 1929....

Updated Bradley ......HMM....September could be interesting.....

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/f52a20c4-dbad-45e5-b7ab-4b8cb1c319ee
.

,
http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/71f83383-4223-4411-920b-0185c99b0a79




.

Closed out CPF, now down to 15% long from 20%.
Bull market probably has 1-5 days left in it unless a miracle occurrs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTev5pSuYLk

Go TEAM USA!




________________________________

Go TEAM USA!




________________________________

Switch to 1m chart to see some red....

the dam is about to break

Definitive proof top is very near: "Libor rate falls to record low" (WSJ.com)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125120870201356913.html
risk premium is near zero, risk avoidance near zero, equities euphoria is somewhere out beyond Uranus... Libor hitting *all time lows* is very telling.

SNDK - we just crossed over 17.80 resistance ..next tgt 19 ? Does anyone else see this ?

Also, with the predictions of a fall ... would you be buying this ? David / Anna ?

2-Year Note Auction today. Results come out shortly after 1 PM

I've arranged it so that I don't get chopped again on that. (One chop a day is enough!)

So far I'm down 0.75% on SPY-based position while SPX is up 0.85%, might still nail this thing if I don't act dumb. ;)

Attention, attention: my readers have gone totally pussy on me and everyone is turning into a bull.

That is all.

Hey now Tim, not me! :)

Your asylum request has been received - please submit two passport photos and the filing fee.

For the record - we are long term bears - short term I see a 50/50 chance of higher highs. Meh - my puts have over 200 days of theta to burn.

I'm on the "speak to him face to face" fly list.

This is how screwed up Homeland Security is. Some Irish IRA member who killed a grandfather and his 13 year old granddaughter was released from prison 2 years ago. Me, my nephew with my exact name, and my brothers are all now on the list. God forbid they use birth days.

So I did some searching and found that a pilot who carries a gun into the cockpit has the same name of another criminal and he haas been trying for a year to get his name off the list.

The problem is that when you fly you can't print a boarding pass or check-in at the curb.

Steve

P.S. Trailer: "Fall of the Republic: The Presidency of Barack Obama":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3u5Nd9i1UiA&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Einfowars%2Ecom%2Ftrailer%2Dfor%2Dthe%2Dupcoming%2Dfall%2Dof%2Dthe%2Drepublic%2Dthe%2Dpresidency%2Dof%2Dbarack%2Dobama%2F&feature=player_embedded#t=96

That's too bad because XLF just made a lower high on the 15 min chart.

not me

fuck that shit...

So eloquent today - I like it.

hmmmm so they all think its a new bull mkt....perfect....LMAOOOOOO

That's it... We are topping!

we are still 3 weeks from a top IMO, but it is pretty funny watching the permabearz putting on a bull suit NOW

ACJ
I was only kidding about the top being in and you are right the permabears switching over now is a HOOT!

I've been hearing "the top is in" since April......

That is a signal.
waaaaiit for it...
waaaaiit for it...
waaaaiit for it...

you can say that again. no bears in sight. here at 1036, no bear action. looks like 1045 today.

Just added more Mar 65 SPY Puts.

Adding SPY December 90 puts here. Small amount for now.

Now sitting, SPY Dec 90, SPY Dec 80, SPY Mar 80, and SPY Mar 70. And some Oct QID 30 Calls for the fun of it.

Looking to add SPY Nov 100 puts as we push higher.

Overall, 25% short position, 75% cash. FWIW. Lord have mercy...

Shorting / going into puts when the price is going up is as bad as buying when the price is going down. Remember when stocks were in a free fall and the TV pundits were saying that it's OK, that people should be buying?

No worries. Remember that these are longer term positions, and are averaged into. I won't claim to be able to call short-term movements very well - or call tops or bottoms. With an occasional hedge as we ride up and off the cliff (one of these already paid for about 1/4 of my puts), all is good.

Oh forgot to mention... isn't it the TV pundits that are saying to buy right now? Hurry or you will miss out on the bull market! The pros are buyinig - are you? Prices are going up, so it must be the right time to hop on board. And when the prices drop, that is a good time to sell.

We keep clawing our way higher. I'd be suprised if we don't see the 1038 hit again today.

bot SPY Oct99p @2.06

We do have a couple of treasury auctions today....

Also

http://www.screencast.com/t/wBm6jHzGps

as I wrote yesterday -
"we will have few more hours with higher hourly close by noon"

Today - we are about to post "highest new hourly close" on hourly to confirm existence of W5 of UP wave
at the same time w5 has target of SPX 1047.50 and we are awfully close, therefore abc to follow into Wed-Fri
And, once again, shall we post higher weekly close - that would print weekly sell COmbo 13

Good luck shorts

we just printed w5 hourly - 4 more minutes to lock it

not to overlook that today TDCountdown Sell on daily most likely will be completed - looks like alsmot perfect storm - and this is the eye

DavidDT

Looks like I may of missed one of your critical past posts. What do you expect to happen after we post this hourly high and what will the next 3 days look like in your view? Thanks again for all your great posts to the group!

based on hourly (IF it will work the way I expect and W5 gives way to WA) - then I expect theta burn with some downside bias till the end of the week

WA might be confirmed (IF) only Thursday morning - that is a long wait, but ...

Thanks!

also - I created permanent page on my site with D-Wave roadmap of S&P monthly, weekly, daily