Another Doji Day

Fujisan here.

I slept in with too much margaritas and buffalo wings last night… and it looks like I missed a great short opportunity.

After all, today is going to be another doji day.  I would have to say that the market has been very precisely closing right around 1030 level for the past 5 days, and I’m expecting the same type of price action for another week before it finally rolls over, as I discussed in my posting yesterday.

In the mean time, the market gives us an opportunity to make money in both directions with a wide daily range, so let’s make some money!  We are getting very close to the top!

Here is a chart that I posted back in July and it looks like this pattern is working out quite well, so here is my updated three drives pattern.

Good luck to you all!

11:40am EDT: Mole here – I actually woke up early down here in San Diego and added more puts right at the top. Then I went back to bed for and just woke up to nice green shoots in my account – perfect :-)

This entry was posted on Friday, August 28th, 2009 at 11:34 am. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • MJSgl

    Bought SPY Sep 104 Calls for scalp at 1.71.

  • Douala

    I'm just saying…….. There maybe a somewhat of a short squeeze today around 2-2:30. The reason why I say that is the other day I tried to short a lot of the stocks [tyh, oih, pcln, etc] at Scottrade and in every case they had no more shares to short. But I was holding a few PCLN shorts from a few days before. Well, like I mentioned yesterday, Scottrade said they wanted them back.. I just got my
    Fed EX from them a few mins ago saying “B*t*h” we want our shares back NOW! So I assume a lot of folks at Scottrade today maybe buying like mad before 2:30. Like I said… I was just saying.

    Mmmm… here is my video choice…. I could use a little TLC about now. [Sure won't get it from Scottrade! LOL]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBvyJyzSGCE

  • molecool

    If you scalp why don't you play the futures?

  • rhae

    SPY 15m, support tagged, fib time can't tell time, I added a pitchfork… I know what I would like to happen… But I haven't go a clue, beats me, and 50/50… guess that must be a doji
    http://screencast.com/t/8G0NhpRppp

  • ckeltner

    Fujisan – so if I am reading your chart correctly, it should pull back to 980 to touch the trendline, then move another final 176 point thrust for the 3rd and last time to hit around 1156

  • Henny

    Newbie question… I was just snooping around and saw extremely high open interest in SPXU – both the Mar10 60 Call and Put… Obviously, the same person holds both positions.

    Is this simply a play on volatility? What would be the expected return on such a position if the Vix doubled? It seems to me that there is limited downside with the Vix at its current levels…

  • Iguanadon

    I believe she's showing the 176 point move up from 869 that already took place and peaking at 1045 next week. She's been calling for the top to occur Sept4 or Sept8.

  • ckeltner

    Nice job mole. So did you really scare TK as much as he looked in that picture :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Not sure how many people like Jazz (I find it so like stock market), but here is absolutely brilliant piece
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZ5JcgW9pM4

  • MJSgl

    Don't always scalp. Sometimes I change my mind and hold overnight, especially if my stop doesn't get hit and there is little movement but I think it'll still go my way next day. (I know, cardinal sin.)

    I guess you're right though. If I have stops in, I don't have to worry about topping up too much. Maybe I should take the plunge.

  • itsgold

    Grabbed some DEC 12 puts on GE. yummy!

  • Keirsten

    Very nice!!!

  • ckeltner

    Yeah, I am just wondering if she sees that as a st top with another 176 move up to follow since it would only be the 3rd touch on the bottom trendline on this pullback (4th is usually a break?). It all just lines up too well and if I recall that is the 50% retrace as well

  • rhae

    can they take your shares like that, I understand margin calls they can,,, but just out of the blue.
    none of those you mentioned on the Reg. SHO list

  • TheCrowe

    What service do you use MJS and do they do futures? TOS is mentioned alot in here.

  • Douala

    rhae
    These are shares I shorted. I guess they are getting nervous that we maybe topping and the original owner may want to dump them.

  • bshah

    Fujisan, & the team…
    I had few very good responses to my y'day's post.. I sincerely thank each & everyone of them… 3 things I want to update…
    1. I got rid of 2 AAPL puts..with some loss. Will do some more.
    2. Do you have any sites/books for me to learn say e.g. PIVOT, all the charting techniques….?
    3. Douala, I am holding PCLN puts and today, do you see “DOJI” ? If, so does that mean, a turning point… ? Stochastics suggest bearish movements ( Using Scottrade charts ) and MACD as well. So do you think, i do still have a 5% chance…

    David, PRSGuitar, spudthorpe special thanks to you… Trust me, I am and will be a good team player and listen to every bit of your suggestions…
    thanks,

  • MJSgl

    Tradeking. Longer-term stuff in pos Wells Fargo.

  • Keirsten

    on PCLN- it's working on a gravestone doji today- the kiss of death. It could change depending on price action this afternoon, but keep an eye on that. I'm short PCLN on a longer term swing trade. G/L

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Wondering what you all would think of Jan 10 AAPL puts at 110? Should we hit the high around 170 then 100 would be a retracement to the 23% and 113 would be a retracement to 38%?

    Thanks for the help.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    love jazz but I think lately stock market is more like that monotonous death metal with dogs barking stuff…about the only thing I can't listen to. nice stuff though DDT

  • Iguanadon

    I follow you… seeing as how she has a=c=e up top and a was 166 points, c was 176 and she's projecting e to be 176 I'm thinking she's saying that's it. Plus yesterday I believe it was she showed a potential head forming right here as well. Since she's hung over from margarita drinking we'll wait to see if she responds a little later. ;-)

  • Douala

    bshah … I would concur with “The Master of Charts” [Keirsten] on that one.

    Keirsten… Looks like you don't use Scottrade if you are able to be short long term PCLN. I'm jealous!

  • annamall

    I am staying put (s)(litterally) and will be ready for the nice dump we are soon going to get.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i have Jan 105 puts, i'm hoping for a big meltdown there

  • Keirsten

    I don't use ScottT, Douala- and for this trade I'm using Dec 145s for now. I'll short it straight up once we are into September on a change of trend.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    … careful with the GE stuff…although 12 no so bad. Core Infrastucture businesses are quite strong and growing still. Huge investments in technology ongoing. Substantial downsizing of Financial arm in progress. Immelts downfall will be growing that financial arm from 38% of the company to 51%, so he's trying to shrink it quickly. Pressure on industrial divisions to pick up the slack. Stimulous $ will flow to this company via Energy and Transportation stimulous awards to US companies then back to GE as a supplier of choice.

  • Keirsten

    It really amazed with this run up! I'm glad we're on this trade together. :-)

  • TheCrowe

    Does TradeKing do futures? I'm on there too, but don't think they have futures.

  • skynard

    What is going on? No more ramp jobs? Consumers mood seems to have put a damper on things.

  • AS2009

    Does anyone else see the potential bear flag on the dollar … could we be consolidating before another move down ?

  • annamall

    I am off for lunch too, but loving this price action, if we bears can just keep it going. :)

    come on AIG roll you piece of garbage! LOL

    Wheeeeeeeeeee someone listened!

  • rhae

    SPY 60m 103.14 support a tough nut that needs to be cracked, for bears

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Bshah,

    I just read your post after I submited mine. What strike were your puts you sold?

  • TheCrowe

    Cracked… and then some.

  • St Deluise

    AIG goes red, getting the popcorn ready..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    [Not of sarcastic type..eh , OK, I AM, but (would never say it to ANYONE ELSE)]

    JACK or whoever you are – come back please – I have $20 bill for ya!!! Buy some condoms, please – stop the bloodline before it is too late (well in a way it is too late – most of people are half stupid already)

  • MJSgl

    Crap got stopped out. Time to revist our old friend 1018-1020 support.

  • MJSgl

    No, they don't. I'd have to open another account. That's another reason, too.

  • rhae

    now stay busted… agree with annamall, those strong lines are harder to bust back up thru… could get tested tho, maybe?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    me too! are you short the stock or puts?

  • annamall

    Oh yea Deluise!! I shorted (a bit early) but now loving it!!! in green now. yeeee hahhhhh

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    and then some more

  • annamall

    And then to the ground floor please??? heheheh

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    hey – it is almost got to my 162 price target :)

  • rhae

    SPY 15m pitchfork Oh, Yeah… anchor points are always subjective, I try and fine strong spots… so on the support line…keep the ball rolling, please

    http://screencast.com/t/2Gp0ENOW6g

  • annamall

    BTW we should start to see some program sell buttons going off pretty soon..yeeh haaaaaaaah

  • annamall

    Great chart Rhae! :-D

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    $ must be driving the currency traders nuts!!! broke out and up, but now looks like it might have been a headfake. Come on BUCKY YOU CAN DO IT!!!!

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=15&yr=0&

  • St Deluise
  • fuw

    Euro/usd now back under longer term resistance line. Now lets see if it can close back under it on the daily. TRIN seems to be reacting a bit again as well.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    F..g Tradeking censors removed my blog there when I used “middle finger and Abbi Cohen” combination
    But Dan (BigDog) – is one great guy – I worked at Quick&Rally at the same time he was founding SureTrade

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no matter how unhappy I am sometimes with TOS – that is the best price/features package out there – get on board (or get on AMTD and get options approval – you'll have TOS access)

  • TheCrowe

    Getting close to Alpha's lower blue line of the bear wedge…

  • rhae

    note: occasionally my anchors are a little out of sync with price( not much) cuz I use a overlay program… it does not move, but price continues to march across the screen.So I need to manually move the anchors…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    let me get “THIKKEA GLASSES” (“My Cousin Vinny”)

  • Scrillhog

    So are we gonna close in the green again today?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    dontbshort

  • Keirsten

    Just using puts for now. I want to see what happens the second week of September before I ditch those and just short it. But we're so close now, Alpha. I can feel it. ;-) It's been a long wait.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    dontbshortthe$youmean

  • springheel_jack

    That chart has been a serious performer this week alpha. Way to go mate.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I was under the impression that wasn't allowed.

  • Autopsias

    Not sure if you guys are following the Zero, but since Mole is out, I see some nice Div…

    Careful with shorts from this point on IMHO…

  • springheel_jack

    I agree. Might be a bit more downside left here but the risk/reward has shifted in favor of longs.

  • Trader_Steve

    This is breaking on Drudge and would shut down all trading if ever implemented…I'm asssuming no one wants political talk here not involving markets, but as someone with 1/3rd of my masters in Economics I know what a Marxist looks like. I don't see how nations prosper when a Marxist demagogue is elected. If this needs to be deleted I understand.

    Steve

    In part:

    BILL WOULD GIVE OBAMA COMPLETE CONTROL OF INTERNET

    “Internet companies and civil liberties groups were alarmed this spring when a U.S. Senate bill proposed handing the White House the power to disconnect private-sector computers from the Internet.

    They're not much happier about a revised version that aides to Sen. Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat, have spent months drafting behind closed doors. CNET News has obtained a copy of the 55-page draft (excerpt), which still appears to permit the president to seize temporary control of private-sector networks during a so-called cybersecurity emergency.

    The new version would allow the president to “declare a cybersecurity emergency” relating to “non-governmental” computer networks and do what's necessary to respond to the threat. Other sections of the proposal include a federal certification program for “cybersecurity professionals,” and a requirement that certain computer systems and networks in the private sector be managed by people who have been awarded that license.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    it works for any and everything, here it is for POT
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    So I woke up today and my sell order on my Sept 60 IWM calls had filled at my limit of $1.00 even…. peep this fill, I've never done that so well before I dont think.
    http://screencast.com/t/teVy27NO

    …and I wasnt even awake at that point. Now the calls are trading at 50 cents lol

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    liberal fascism is the greatest threat this country has ever seen. people had better wake the hell up or it'll be too late.

  • bshah

    Hi CTD,
    I didn't sell any puts… I just bought some…

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Well, I contributed a little of the volume in FNM. I locked in a 102% gain. Not a bad two week gain. I only wish I hadn't been playing the 5¢ slots instead of the $100 slots. I didn't want too be too greedy though……well I did, but I'm pretty trigger happy these days. ;-)

  • Keirsten

    Check out ISRG today. 20 EMA, then 222.53 and 221.03 gap support.

  • springheel_jack

    Is that using stockcharts alpha? How can i set that up?

  • centerline

    I think I am going to watch for a retest at the 1023 resistance here in the next hour or so. If we fail to break through – might load a Sep or Oct Call and see if we get a ramp up this afternoon. I won't hold over the weekend though. I am too chicken.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yeah (“The whole Nine Yards” – dontblong)

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    yeap I got totally taken yesterday. Went short EURUSD last week friday at the highs, all was behaving nice until yesterday when the big breakout came. To make matters worse, I went short ES 1012 around 5 weeks ago (I haad patience with that position and was willing to assume some risk as it was IT focused). I made one mistake by not closing out on 1012 cash hour breakout but just because you made a mistake should not change technicals at 1044 target.

    The ONLY reason I covered at the close yesterday was the EURUSD mess. I know I followed my plan and traded with dicipline by deciding to close out on a failed reversal day. But looking at it now – it sure does not feel I did the right thing. At least I got a bunch of puts still =)

    But this was definitly a whipsaw week for me – I am sure all others have had the same problem if you are trying to catch the falling IT “this is the top for sure this time” knife.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah it's stockcharts. i draw all the lines myself off pivots and key ew levels, it's more obvious than you might think. first draw either the upper or lower trendline depending on which has the most points of contact. then clone that line as many times as needed to capture the moves

  • Joe8888

    bearflag pattern worked out well….

    Update on the intraday spy 10 min ..

    .

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Sorry I mis-stated. What was the strike of the puts you got rid of?

  • Douala

    Quick question on shorting. When you out right short a stock [borrowing it and selling it] doesn't the brokerage house you use have the right to call it back from you at anytime like what Scottrade did to me? If they do, then how can one get the maximum ride down on holding an outright short during a big sell off?

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks Alpha, i'll experiment with that. +1 mate.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    AAPL weekly, next stop should be around 120
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Anonymous

    was looking at earlier comments and I did not see any posts on the Q`s touching some very important resistance this morning, could this be it …I feel the answer is a lot closer then one might think.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/dutchst/folders/Jing/media/ed465503-87f5-4d5a-8a80-9f024b4b93dc

  • Fujisan

    Typically, once leg e made the final third drive, this pattern is over and it should rollover. We just need to make another assessment once this pattern is over.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Interesting action happening in the lunch hour today. did the bulls go to lunch and are coming back at 1 pm?

  • Anonymous

    Why not sell way in money calls at your target price? Say 120 jan 10 calls for 37? Same result with no risk of being called back. This is what i usually do with stocks I can’t borrow.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it is already too late

  • Trader_Steve

    “Liberal Fascism” is a great, and informative, book.

    I am friends with Hugh Hewitt who has the best political talk show (5th in nation) and you can podcast at KRLA (and others) 6-9 EDT. I heard Jonas Goldberg on his show discusssing it.

    Steve

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Bush/Cheney's conservative fascism did much more damage to our constitution than Obama will…. I dont like that bill, but much worse things happened under the previous admin (if the bill iss even true, its on Drudge report so you have to take it with a grain of salt)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    still only 980 target

  • Trader_Steve

    >>Not sure if you guys are following the Zero<<

    Being new here, is that something you subscribe to in real time?

    Thanks,
    Steve

  • pramood

    Hi Anna,

    what is your exit target for S&P today? I am holding few SPY puts too.

    TIA

  • Keirsten

    Did you speak to them? I might have missed your trade description on this. If the market is illiquid, the lender might have called them back. I'll be interested in hearing what happens with this Doula, because you didn't mention a margin problem at all.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I am no super genius but I am quite sure unless the bulls break this channel it is going to be Ugly this afternoon….

  • Douala

    Thanks for the charting tip… +1

  • marcT

    Question guys… Why is silver up HUGE when the dollar is up also??? Please provide insight… I'm so lost…. :(

  • Trader_Steve

    I am not a Bush fan other than under his watch, (the building I worked in where three of my close friends died and I knew 20+ more with one jumping) we were not hit by people who tried to do so. I don;t believe we will be that lucky this time.

    Feel free to e-mail me at stevec927 – at- earthlink- dot net as you obviously are unaware of what Obama has been doing and are very misinformed on what took place under Bush.

    To call Bush/Cheney “conservative fascism” is absurd.

    Steve

  • Trader_Steve

    WOW..is that a propietary chart?

    That's a retracement to CNBC…LOL

    Steve

  • Douala

    [a needless post]
    I'm off of death row…. Scottrade just called and canceled their request for the outstanding PCLN shorted shares. Douala lives to short another day. [I still hate Scottrade]

  • Keirsten

    See my question below. I'd love to know what was going on there because I'll skip shorting it and stick to puts if there's a liquidity problem.

  • Trader_Steve

    Well the dollar tanked yesterday, so a mildly stronger dollar wouldn't necessarily be much of a reason, IMO.

    Some people think the dollar is going to collapse. My only question is where are people still trying to sneak into?

    Steve

    P.S. I think siler and goold are in bearish formations, as does EWI.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    just a delayed reaction to yesterday's move down in the $

  • innatedc

    You are going to start seeing the metals (gold and silver) as safe havens for those thinking this market and dollar will eventually go down……a disconnect is possibly in the works…..all things US may be considered garbage in the future.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I guess I answered my own question

  • AudioTactics

    I bought SPY at 102.78 but then scratched the trade at 102.80.

    Kicking myself right now!

  • annamall

    Hey Pra…I am thinking 1023 or 1016-17.. ;)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the $ is driving me nuts

  • springheel_jack

    Yes, updates every few seconds.

  • Autopsias

    Indeed, please follow the above placed link named Zero.

    http://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=2472

  • annamall

    Hey Fuw, I prefer a HUGE CLOSE under 1.43 , then I would really feel good about the move down. :)

  • Douala

    In yesterday's post I thought I was clear that the PCLN was not a problem with a basic margin call [not enough funds to cover] but I guess a liquidity problem. I talked with Scottrade today and they told me if I am holding shorted shares and the market goes into a plunge and they find their clients selling off and they have the right to call in those shorted shares at anytime, no matter how well I am doing. Of course they recommended inverse ETFs and options as a way to avoid this. So, since I am not an option expert then my only choice is ETFs because shorting during a plunge [P3] looks like a bad plan if everyone is running for the exits and wants to sell.

  • steveo77

    Silver might react like a poor mans gold, as safe haven with inflationary worries and just fiat money worries in general.

    But who the hell really knows, there are strong and reasoned opinions in both directions, and the advant of the silver ETF 2 years ago has changed the marketplace, now it's like UNG….a commodity that is actively gamed.

    If you think you know it all, thats when you are going to get burned. If you feel a little lost, start counting waves and reviewing patterns, in mulitple timerframes, also review your MACD, and stochs, including slo stochs. Also check out the Gold to silver ratio, its important for many reasons, not just for making a play on silver.

    OK, still lost? Well then keep your powder dry.

  • Douala

    and so do I uh? [LOL]

  • pramood

    thanks

  • innatedc

    So if you were playing options, how far out would you go to see that target?

  • evertuner1

    mini inverse h&s on C if breaks 5.2

  • Keirsten

    That's good to know, and basically what I think Prechter has been preaching about lately.

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Wow that is going to be a pretty Doji….weekly chart kids…..

  • annamall

    Ditto alpha!

  • Osso

    Excuse my ignorance. That guy is an employee of the Rothschilds/Morgan/Fed/Bilderberg group. THE PLAN IS FULL CONTROL. They have a plan where every american will have a code bar attached to themselves…..for control purposes.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Is this market going to sell off later today or are they going to jam this up?

  • Osso

    they were too employees of the Group.

  • rhae

    SPY 60m back to test the strong line at 103.14 (thin zone)… flunk or pass, could show the way

  • Iguanadon

    Doesn't get much doji-er. 102.99 would make it perfect and would make it seem as if this week didn't even happen.

  • Trader_Steve

    If you do that a lot, you can be very useful here (g)

    Steve

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah, it's a must read for everyone

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    like any other young bull mkt it makes it hard for those to get in and stay on for the ride……

  • rhae

    My SPY 60m Hurst cycles are all matched up just above, about 103.25… that could be interesting

  • Douala

    That was a very uncomfortable position to be in. You get an email, then a phone call, then the next day the Fed Ex people are banging on your door saying “we know you are in there, here's an over nighter from Scottrade”. Letter is 2 lines long.

    “You have to 2:30PM to buy back shares or Scottrade will exercise its right to do it for you.”

    Scottrade

    Even now if you try to get shares to short on Scottrade like TYH, OIH, GOOG, PCLN, NVR etc you can't. They must be either holding them back or at their critical level where they could start calling them in if a sell off occurs. Glad I found out now.

  • Vardoger

    Nice pic :)

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Long candles coming….. Red or Green?

  • Keirsten

    I'm glad you did too. :-) Glad it worked out okay for you in the meanwhile.

  • Fujisan

    You can check out any books by John Person. His most recent book “pivots and candle charting” would be the best.

    Also, if you check out TOS chat archives, there are a couple of webinars by John Person as to how to use pivots.

    Good luck!

  • Trader_Steve

    The biggest problem I see with that is that two, or perhaps three, times that happened, they got slaughtered.

    To remind peoiple, in a market collapse own NO COMMODITIES that night. On Oct 20, 1987 the margin calls were wide and thick. Silver was trading at $8.25 on the floor in London as I was on the phone with a company I had left in 1986. I had bought silver thinking what you are saying. I'm only rehashing what was about $75,000 sting to give an example to others.

    Massive margin calls went out with the Dow collapsing the day before. My stip was at $7.75. The opening range in moments wwas down to $6.80 when just five minute before it was at $8.25. I think I dry heaved at my desk when I got my fill as I was trading from home for a few months.

    One silver broker got a call with an order to sell 5,000 silver at the market (BIG ORDER) a few moments before NY opened. He said “I'm not doing business today” and hung up and told his clerks not to pick up the phone. He went out to the pit and booked every buy order he could sell. The story told to me (I knew who he was but didn't know him) is that he made $5 million, went into the back and sold all his seats before they collapsed, gave his clerks each a $50,000 bonus, and retired.

    Steve

  • Vardoger

    Bounced off the bottom of the elliott channel/ 2-4 trendline. Looking for a rip to fill rest of short portfolio. Great calls Fuji, you are very centered as always..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Better be red. I hope the roof comes down.

  • Keirsten

    Thanks, Var! How's the trading going?

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I feel ya.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    naaaa

  • Trader_Steve

    10 years ago I would have shrugged off what you are saying.

    The only radio host I know who is embracing parts of that is Michael Savage and my understanding is that just like the Village Voice story about GS engineering every market manipulation since the Great Depression, they are going to engineer one here. Almost finishing Galbraith's “The Great Crash: 1929″ this is ripe right now to collapse. And it's plain that after buying the votes of Wall Street, wiping people out and putting them under the thumb of whatever healtcare passes, and something WILL pass, will leave much of America beholding to government. And that is the plan.

    Steve

  • disrespekt

    It's enough to make one wonder aloud if there is some organized attempt to prevent shorting.

    Obviously the government has called in all its shares to prevent shorting, one must expect that the pension funds (also gov) and anyone else in the loop on this has done the same.

    Perhaps the brokerages are “in” in that they will provide this critical buying support through forced buy-backs if the bottom falls out.

  • fuw

    My stab at making sense of euro/usd on a medium term chart (1h). Very choppy and rangebound, and it feels like it can go either way. The green lines are coming from a daily/4h perspective:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Uyz6vBp5T

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I had to have an interview at deutsche bank on 74th floor north at 9:00 and express bus got stuck on hov line right before battery tunnel
    date: Sep 11th 2001
    “saved by the bus”
    8 years later – nothing but bubbles – from both parties

  • rhae

    Why did SPY struggle as is approached 103.25…. because it was afraid of the Hurst channel resistance. They do not normally show up on charges, they just cycle back and forth, there are 3 rez and 3 support which form a channel … and when they line up at the top, like moving averages they re enforce each other… can price break thru? sure, if the PPT wants it to. They are just cycles and nothing is perfect… so just a watch point…. all imo of course.

    seems to have petered out for now

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    need a nice sell off to end the day. important for us break below 1019

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • GDII

    lol scottrade is so gay. i got similar issues when i was with them.
    time to quit.

  • dollar

    SAUSALITO, Calif., Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ — TrimTabs Investment Research reported that selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    This is the problem with relying on correlations — all correlated issues eventually diverge. In reality, metals, stocks and currencies all follow their own wave counts.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    That's not needless, that's great news for you and great info for us to keep in mind

  • ropey

    stuffed on a few SPY IC's with >big< OTM legs as i don't trust which way this thing is going to go…96 – 108 is the rang, can still make some ok money on them assuming the market staysi n this range for the next 3 weeks..

  • Keirsten

    Another good idea! I think this liquidity problem could be difficult once this thing starts rolling downhill. This is one of the reasons Mole is staying with the index options, and away from individual issues from what I understand.

  • Keirsten

    Good information, Dollar.

  • PRSGuitars

    Incredible story david! Thank god for bus malfunctions. Glad to have you here with us…

  • jamesmarkii

    CME just wont go down (even when the Dow/SPX are down)
    Yes i know it trades on the Nasdaq….

  • innatedc

    Now do ya think CNBC will pick up that wire and report it?

  • SpeedSkt1

    this crap wears you down…….same story every day……little bit of selling and then all of the banks take the Govt. money and keep buying to jack up the prices……it's really stupid…..when this thing ends, who knows if the whole U.S. Govt funding blows up, then shorting the market won't even matter if there is no trusted currency or we are just in chaos……..just sayin

  • Anonymous

    you’re da bomb Fujisan

  • molecool

    New avatar? What's the occasion?

  • fuw

    What significance would you put into us not breaking it (if it doesn't happen)? Big problem or small problem?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    Uncle Buck starting to make a move

  • ropey

    dunno but how come all the lady traders are so hot? lol

  • chilling

    $dxy going vertical. /es is not reflecting that.

  • bist

    Anyone shorting SLV today?

  • Keirsten

    Yeah, do you like it? Iggy said it was TV avatar week, so I found Nikita, which also goes along with DDT! :-D

  • fuw

    Yeah, it definitely prefers to move in short bursts :)
    Lots of resistance above though, so I think it will be a continued choppy ride.

  • Trader_Steve

    Maybe they are….I hope that's their real picture. Mine is!

    Steve

  • ropey

    there is much weirdo shit going on today, alot of stuff heading in the same direction when they are usually opposite, look at the bonds , euro and dxy – i think the market is on whacky backy today..

  • dollar

    So is mine…

  • Keirsten

    I'm too paranoid of stalkers, Trader.. not to mention I know several analysts, so I'd rather say incognito. You'd be surprised who visits these blogs. ;-)

  • Keirsten

    SNORT!

  • Vardoger

    Woke up late at 6:25 and didn't get my stink bids in until it was too late! The nice weather comes with such sacrifices out here… Anyways, I got some March UUP calls and have gtc bids on my QQQQ, SPY, XLF puts/ SRS calls that I think will get hit considering we don't fail on Monday. The up-channel is holding and we just broke out of the down channel from this morning. I expect a little push into the close. Good call on the EOM window dressing, I like and ending diagonal topping out early next week. What do you have going on? Still in that FCX? nice call btw. XOM is a tasty short still as well. The triangle is much cleaner since June 11, stock is going to 58 imo. Sexy pic, I wouldn't expect anything less from a socal girl!

  • Vardoger

    Possible micro 3 on deck

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Word is it's been deader than dead in the commodity pits today in NY and Chicago. Probably some traders trying to chop a bit off gold's recent close up – or maybe they want to push oil to a specific close in 20 mins.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah, can't tell if this is wave iv of 1 down or ii of v up

  • bshah

    Are they going to freeze it up to 1027.70 and not let it move at all till 3.30.? Wow..and then heaven is the destination…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    CAn we close on the lows for the day? Just once….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Problem is that i count 5 waves up on a 5 min chart on SPX from todays lows….

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i've already got a big short position, but if i didn't i'd sure give it a look with the $ showing strength

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    that's ok it can be a 5-3-5 correction

  • Vardoger

    Watch out for a strong bounce or heavy failure off SPX 1025

  • annamall

    The $DXY is up so much, the tape should be down allot more than it is, it must be due to the light volume!

  • ACJ

    Most of them are 16yo boys playing on the Interwebz

  • bshah

    here we go… action started already… Why does it always have to go up after or around 3 ? that's what I don't get it… Everyone wants to only buy..?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Sure its a bull market according to Cramer

  • Vardoger

    Divergences will occur this late in the game. Especially coming into EOM and triple witching. Got filled on my MAR UUP calls :)

  • Bankrupt

    OTOH correlation cant be 100%

    dx strength makes me confident into holding over the weekend tho ;)

  • Keirsten

    Highest volume on UUP in the past 7 sessions.

  • MJSgl

    Yes, but as part of a pairs trade, long gold.

  • Bankrupt

    no, bulls need to be trained to buy

  • annamall

    EUR has 200 day SMA 1.4268 support 1.4250

  • annamall

    me too Bankrupt, we may have to wait to next week for dump

  • annamall

    Could be a bull head fake. we shall see. I am holding shorts. :)

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i'm so conditioned to feel like crap going into the close, i can't help but think they finish this month green

  • Keirsten

    I know it. If you weren't in a good position going into the open, this day has just been a yawner too. I'd kill for a day of up and down swings right about now. Maybe next month…

  • newbear

    I found the reason for this crazy run up.

    http://www.theonion.com/content/news/nations_un

  • Lordted

    Welcome back Fujisan

    Just logged on… Nice charts as usual. 4th Sept in a full moon and 7th is US labor day (?) So you could all wake up on Tuesday 8th to see the market roll over..

    Or, we drop into the 4th or tuesday 8th and make a bottom… That would be a surprise.

    I love Vegas, you playing the slots out there?

  • Joe8888

    Man i can't wait , for the day Cramer's…… Show, Mad Money . is off the air…!!!!

  • bist

    Yeah I bought some uso puts anticipating more upside for the dollar.

  • Bankrupt

    u think he noticed the 2008 bear? I am not sure…

  • skynard

    GS making a move.

  • St Deluise

    a channel, another channel, a wedge.. i don't know. for the extremely bored i present: SPX @ 5 min

    http://i28.tinypic.com/daf5l.png

  • cramar

    Looks to me (unless there is a sell off into the close), that from yesterday's low we started an ED. (i) ended at the high this morning, sell-off was (ii), (both were 3s), (iii) should carry us up Monday (if indeed Monday opens up strong) to 1040s, then a (iv) and (v) peaking slightly higher Sept. 1. If we take out the lows today, this is dead wrong.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Tied up at day job and not able to say much. But as has been common Friday afternoons this summer, once again I've been seeing unimistakble signs of the institutional algos buying again.

    One group around 1:30, another just after 2PM. Yet another stable stretch right now both sides of 3PM, but they'll stop if/when GS and the prop day traders get active.

    These are the “chop the big orders into bits and feed them in slowly to get a good price” programs. Money managers and funds must have client cash rolling in and are comfy (today) buying at $103.25 on SPY levels.

    My take: the longer prices like $103.25 stay on the ticker, the more everyone starts believing in this price level… and the longer this tangled EW correction of zigzags, flats and triangles will keep stretching out sideways…

  • bsummertime

    me too, i keep buying puts but have to keep some dry powder in case this is a IV and we blow off next week

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Looks like the markets are going to sell off at the close unless this conversation really did take place.

    Bennie: You know what sounds good right now? A POMO-boy with a side of bear fries.

    Gov. Sacks: You know that's right…mmmmm..hhhmmmmm. I want mine loaded with extra bear meat.

    Bennie: I'll pick up the tab again, after all you were great last night…as usual.

    Gov. Sacks: Well that 3 way with DC is something I’ll never forget. Let’s do it again tonight.

    Bennie: You got it babe, now let’s EAT!!!

  • Trader_Steve

    I'm (slowly) uploading a video of David Olney to my YouTube site. Ever heard of him? A great songwriter who lives in Nashville. If you are killing time,

    Stalkers? I never use my real full name since a doctor I had met was scamming people for an ailment (rather not say) and he not only no longer practiced, but listed himself in the phone book as it being his specialty. Myself and a few others in a newsgroup got sick of him slumming for clients at $3,000 a pop for an incurable ailment. One person reported him to the state medical board and he thought it was me. He bought my social security number and foolishly, particularly for a physician, sent me two e-mails telling me to retract my complaint, retract my letter to the AMA, that he knew people at IRS, and retract all my public comments made on the newsgroup. I'm the wrong guy to extort! He found that out. He even posteed in a newgroup where he was hated that I would soon be retracting my words as I came to understand I was not a physician and that I was wrong to attack his claims. I recall enough biology to know “double-blind study” and on a good day, a single study alone of limited peopel showed 70% relief with his and ohers methods. That's hardly a cure he was advertizing.

    I sent his correspondence to the State Bureau of Investigation. They shut him down inside of six weeks. He wrote and said he would find me one day and get even with me. I sent that in and asked that they make sure if he has any weapons that they are confiscated. I then sent him an e-mail, with the help of my detective father in-law, stating that I considered him a direct threat to me and that since I know what he looks like, if I ever see him inside of 20 feet from me I take his threat seriously and may be compelled to use deadly force and I do carry a weapon and I have had a lot of training and shoot as a hobby. I never heard from him again. This was about 6 years ago. But your point is well made. If a physycian can buy my social security number and claim he will contact the IRS, the local police for threatening him, and suing me for depriving him of an income, think what a not supposedly as well educated person is capable of doing, particularly to a woman.

    When I get that YouTube up e-mail me your home address (g)…kidding!

    Steve

  • Fujisan

    Another day of doji, another day of closing at 1030. I'm so spot on!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Waht idiots would buy stock going into the weeekend?..I hope China's market crashes come Sunday night…

  • bshah

    perfect spot.. S&P neutral… Dow -25 not to worry.. Just one hickup and we are good.. NASD already up.. WTF… Loving it..

  • TheCrowe

    (jinxing powers activate)

    Fujisan,
    The DOJI call is looking prophetic!

  • Fujisan

    That's the idea, Roger!

    I'm so cheap when it comes to gambling — Roulette (black & red) is all I can handle. You know, I go with the highest probabilities ;-)

    Can't want for US open to see Federer! A few more days to go, Roger!!

  • bshah

    fuji… do something.. Anna, drop the a…bomb..

  • Teich50

    Good call, but SPY does not form a doji on the daily, since it gapped up this morning.

  • Fujisan

    Believe me, we would have it for 5 more days (if my day count is correct)!

  • springheel_jack

    Nice call Fujisan, subject to the last half hour of course!

    I think you're right about a doji today though.

    I suspect you're right about next week as well. I hope so. It would be a gift. Easy money.

  • Fujisan

    I'm looking at SPX and ES! The whole point here is that the market is making a high level consolidation.

  • springheel_jack

    Very true, though the effect is much the same.

    Good point.

  • springheel_jack

    The effect is much the same.

  • Fujisan

    Yup, in the mean time, we can make money in both directions. Congrats on your short trade in the morning!

  • Teich50

    Right. Good point.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Nice BIG RED CAndle ..Thats what i like to see

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    is this really happening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Douala

    I been playing around with cycles on the SPX….. From the March lows I have the next cycle turn date [get this] —-> Sept 8th! The day after Labor Day.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Been shorting the rips in financials and commodity stocks…` (FCX is my fav).

    Going 100% short into weekend.

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    shshshshshsh….they're watching

  • annamall

    wish I could Bshah. I am staying short with no worries and long USD. :)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am calling for a close near lows of the day

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Does anyone really believe the $51.11 price tag on AIG? :D

  • mrclam

    “I've seen bears make money, and I've seen bulls make money. I've worked with longer-term traders who have been profitable, and I've worked with successful daytraders. But there's one group of traders I've never seen win. Those are traders who view themselves as victims. Victims don't win, because–in a fundamental way–they do not see themselves as in control of their own destinies. They attribute their losses to bad luck, the market manipulations of others, or random, situational factors. It's difficult to change problem patterns if you don't own them. It's difficult to sustain confidence if you don't perceive yourself to be the driver of your own destiny. Trading victims mostly come in two flavors: 1) Permabears who complain that markets are manipulated/distorted when their own views and theories are getting hammered; 2) Active traders who whine that markets are not giving them enough opportunity. I can't help the former group. They really aren't interested in trading or investing. They are interested in promulgating their theories and conspiracies.”

    -Dr. Brett

    From moo's site.

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Var, hope your trading is going well.

  • PRSGuitars

    Happy to see a bunch of bears here with trades working out — short 25% /es from 1029, will play conservative as I'm trying to catch a larger move here…

    Trying a more removed form of trading as my overtrading and lack of plan yesterday really didn't perform for me (duh). Thanks to everyone and good weekend to all!

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks Fujisan. Nice long trade in the afternoon too. It has been a nice week.

    More of the same next week would be very nice.

  • ropey

    what do you have as a target for sept opex fujisa? i'm not seeing alot of OI in the 107+ area of the SPY ( yet )…but that gap from 105-108 is begging to be filled..i'm just hoping they can hang fire till after opex ( although it would only take 2-3 days like this week to resolve it )…just wish they'd get it over with now and then chill out for a week or two – this constant upswing is rather irrational, however i am just trading the tape so still going to go long on any dips.

  • steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/90kcs6n7

    I am so conditioned like a long tailed cat in a room full of bear traps, i am loath to play short on a bear flag before a weekend whilst Asia is volatile, and bullish sentiment is at all time highs….but I did.

  • shortcover

    even if it is 'worth' zero, it could do 75 or 100 before it does 0. wild times we live in…

  • TheMacroEconomist

    I'm thinking equities tread water with some positive bias right into the Labor Day holiday weekend.

    (But I will take profits if this pans out and the market has a good up day a week from today.)

  • goldfishka

    hi, from a silent reader here. but i do have a question – are you following crme?

  • Fujisan

    Yeah, I will close all my longs on Sep 4th and short it hard!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Good call so far..

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am more short than a perma-bull bulltard is long… This goose is cooked, ready to be feasted …

  • bshah

    Can GS say..? ok.. We have amassed too much money. Let it go now..? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  • Fujisan

    There you go!

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    The thing is that it is just $2.5 pre-reverse-split price..

    Penny stocks are known to double or triple or even quadruple… before going to grave

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    double top –T was at 26.5–I'll have to look at that

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    I have signals, that if Monday is a down day–it's really going to be a down day–showing at least 1 to 2% on the indexes, and maybe more!

  • TonyMontana

    Does the “G” in AIG stand for “Government”?

    If so, there's your answer!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    anyone have any idea why there is 107k OI for Q's Dec 41 calls? OI is not usually that high until 1-2 months until expiration….. strange

  • Fujisan

    I'm looking at another H&S pattern scenario with 980 neckline. If 980 level holds, it will bump up to form the right shoulder toward OPX week, and that should be around 10,000 – so my OPX target for Sep for now is 100.

  • springheel_jack

    Liked your post yesterday about self-discipline, systems & over-trading etc. Very true. I was giving myself a much worse tongue-lashing after the failure of the pattern that must not be named last month.

    Self-discipline is the most important thing for a successful trader, with the possible exception of perceptiveness I suppose. A very self-disciplined idiot might have trouble making money as well.

  • springheel_jack

    Great image.

  • Vardoger

    Dude all I'm buying in DEC. Perfect time to capture IV and keep enough traders interested when I want to unload them at spx 881… I'm buying 35's though :)

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Dang Bighouse–you have +5 on this comment

  • TonyMontana

    Will the same analogy work for FAZ, currently at $2.30 pre reverse split price, if so, FAZ could really take off once the market starts tanking!

  • mrclam

    Doesn't look to be happening, Doji is a better bet.

  • cramar

    If the market has not peaked, I project an upside of above $68 for AIG.

  • bshah

    ok… If that happens and the down day brings me at par on my acct , I will give you $25/- gift card…

  • mrclam

    the TED spread:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=

    I think some signs of cratering would show up here first.

  • springheel_jack

    So close we can almost touch it now.

    Jumping the gun could be expensive though, still a chance we'll make 1070 though I don't think we'll break 1050.

  • Squidman

    Fujisan, best thing for too many margaritas is more! Do not miss the Mesa Grill, one of Bobby Flays at Ceasar's Palace. The margaritas made with cactus nectar are absolutely incredible. Not cheap, but worth every penny. And I am a margarita snob. Thanks for all your wisdom this week–very glad you are back.

  • bist

    Bought a small amount of spy, iwm, and slv puts. Holding some uso puts. Longs are cbl and a ton of penny stocks

  • Fujisan

    SPX closing price is 1029.07. I told ya!

  • bist

    I think next week will be a down week, but I don't know how much it'll drop. The stoch weekly and daily sell signals will play out. We could drop Monday but I wouldn't be surprised if we just consolidated some more dipped up and down on Monday as it's the last day of August. So Tuesday could be the day we drop big time.

  • dumamae

    your are good

  • springheel_jack

    Way to go Fujisan. Great call.

  • gsavli

    Yeah, but what does that mean for monday? Short into this weekend?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    More or less where ES and the ES VWAP wound up too – though ES still has 10 mins to trade.

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Squidy, I will go to Caesar's now to grab some lunch!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Monday is usually the worst day but be careful at end of month.

  • springheel_jack

    As Mole's away I'll give the Geronimo stats again.

    One trade today, which was a winner for +2.5.

    I only made 2.25 on it as though the exit triggerred at TOS, it didn't trigger at my brokers. I sold slightly lower when the text came through.

    I'll have a TOS account open in a couple of weeks.

  • cramar

    So far so good! (re. my call about 50 min. ago.) Monday is critical. If the futures are down big by the open, we have peaked. If they are up, my scenario looks good. ED into Fujisan's Sept. 1st.

  • MJSgl

    I'm thinking I may do the same soon. I am pretty well loaded up on the March puts.

  • springheel_jack

    Have a great weekend everyone.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    yeah I might pick up some QQQQ puts also, right now I'm just holding IWM dec 50 puts, down about 15% on the position.

    seems like kind of a high OI to be banks selling though, theres gotta be demand for them for some reason which is why im confused

  • PRSGuitars

    Wow! Thank you for the kind words. I was in a rough spot mentally yesterday but it is a real lesson to us all to have adversity in our trading lives.

    I really like your posts too, so its quite a compliment to get one from you. At least with that damn pattern it was the pattern that failed — the system you use may not have, as odds suggest pattern recognition IS an edge we small traders can employ to our advantage.

    I am trying to compile a trader's list — the things I use to gain an edge — and codify it so that others can add or comment. I thought to myself the other day, 'how could I better solidify my toolset for dealing w/this market while simultaneously giving my knowledge of VWAP bands, fib retracements, channel magic (33% extensions of previous channels, etc) to others who'd use it?'

    So we'll see how that goes — busy weekend but will do what I must to improve my skills. Good luck and good trading Jack!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Added a few Sept 55/53 bear put spread at the close. Looking to close the spread on Monday around 1015

  • annamall

    Good weekend to all, I am short SPY and staying that way. I scalped for a few points today, but longer term looking for our retracement, I think I am one of the few bears left. :)

  • annamall

    You too Jack! :)

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    ballin'!

  • springheel_jack

    How did your day go Anna? Great call on the short side this morning.

  • ropey

    hmm interesting, well we'll see how the tape unfolds, it's certainly got alot of people all over the place right now – big range ( hence my IC ) – will see how the 1015 level tests given the violent bounce we got off it yesterday. One thing i am noticing though is the news is definitely more bullish and what do you know, the market seems to be selling more into this – before bad news = up..now good news seems to be sideways to down ( so far )……major trend is still bull and up but a good dump would be helpful…

  • Hanuman

    I am with you Anna. I am long SPXU and FAZ.

    Good luck to you and have a great weekend!

  • springheel_jack

    I think we'll start to retrace in a week or so Anna.

    In the interim there's good money to be made working both sides of the street though.

    Lower channel on my SPX bear wedge is 960. target is obviously 880.

    880 is where the real battle will be fought again.

  • Trader_Steve

    I'm bearish in the ultra extreme. I have part of my masters in economics and this is bulls*it. As a retired intelligence officer I knwo said, “I could not have run a better psy-ops program to convince America that everything is going to be alright, as none of the numbers even hint at that.”

    I'm hearing “rolling correction” today which means that better stocks are being bought while questionable ones being sold. As if anyone knows which is which. I heard it for 2-3 months leading up to the 1987 crash.

    To parahrase some famous quote:

    “A rolling correction is that last refuge, to which a bull market clings.”

    There will be a day soon when all the anchors and floor people have a canister of nitrous oxide on their hip and a mask like Dennis Hopper in “Blue Velvet.”

    Steve

  • springheel_jack

    You're right, it is all bull, no pun intended.

    If a three-year old child were to want something to be true, then the child might pretend that if was true and hope than somehow, magically, it would become true. A sort of sympathetic magic perhaps.

    As well as small children, others with a poor grasp of causality such as politicians and regulators can also wander into this fantasy world and obviously have done now.

    In the adult world of course, the brutal truth is that pretending something untrue is true would tend to cause the opposite of the pretence to happen instead. For instance if someone pretends to be rich by spending money that they cannot afford to spend, they will generally drive themselves to bankruptcy rather than magically become rich. Not a bad example in this particular instance of course.

    The adult world is much more brutal though than the world of three year olds, politicians and regulators though.

    The world is being run by members of the cargo cult!

  • bshah

    How can you all forget me..? Me … Me… oh.. pick me…. ( Shrek )

  • cherio

    I was looking for fujiyama in the back ground of las vegas pics you posted Fuji.
    Which charting tool do you use ?

  • TonyMontana

    Actually you were WAY OFF Fujisan, as you stated earlier that SPX would close at 1030 ;-)

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Financials look like they want to trace out an ending diagonal for this last sub-wave. Have a great weekend, rats!
    http://tinyurl.com/m6argq

  • annamall

    I am so sorry bshah! Glad to be in good company!! :-D

  • annamall

    thanks Jack, I did great this morning, nada this afternoon, stayed in all puts. also went short EUR/USD this morning :)

  • annamall

    Nice! glad to know I am in good company! :)

  • annamall

    Oh yea Steve, keep up that sweet talking! LOL

  • grednfer

    I guess there is good news for bears….the overnight rally and breach of the es 1037 high only created a 2 point rally which was promptly sold off (Capitulation?). Remember last week the breach of 1015 actually created this higher trading range.

    However (CAVEAT BEARUS), most of the trading this week was done in the upper half of the range (>1025) and anyone who bought 1020 made $$ on the bounce.

    My bias (although cautious) is still to play the long side until the ES stays below 1025 and especially when it breaks below 1015.

    Same thing with YM(DOW) which I am really liking and es was boring me today. Any YM buys below 9500 (lower tier) made $$. It also closed in the upper half of the range.

    I bought 9515 5 times today and road a 20 point wave up!

    I think you have to be very nimble at this level in the indices and if you're making money in a flat week….thats good. But a flat or slowly moving market is not kind to holding long puts……too much rental $$.

    I don't know where the market is going next week, but I do know the best trades happen early in the day.

    Have fun and have a good weekend!

  • pramood

    Hi Anna,

    I sold my puts at the LOD and reloaded again AH. I am hoping for gap down on Monday with an intraday target of 1008-1015. Europe and Asia should be red on Monday (Japan had high unemployment numbers, India had 7 up days in a row, FTSE should close yesterdays gap)

    JMHO.

    GLTA.

  • Trader_Steve

    I just threw CNBC on a few moments ago. It's Sue Herrera on Closing Bell. This is a worthy watch, for a change and should be up on their site soon.

    The head economist at Merrill said on September (18th?) he was on the trading floor looking at all areas implode by hand grenades hitting them and they were shuting down all credit. He is saying without Fed action, as was stated a year after 1987, the system would have collapsed.

    The other guest is saying too much was done.

    He (Merrill) thinks the spending programs are now outrageous. The other guest says that this is going to be paid for later with “much, much, MUCH higher taxes” and that we are in for a horriffic economy as none of this spending is going towards productive areas. He asks “what have we really injected?” He also feels the shareholders of banks should have paid the price, and that corporate taxes should have been slashed. AGREED! My only problem is that with CEOs doggedly stating that their obligation is to shareholders, no jobs would have been saved.

    I'm not at all a socialist in any way, shape, or form. But capitalism without ethics – and that is what the now known to be useless and corrupt SEC was supposed to be there for to make companies worry about violations that would land a Paulson in jail – can also be quite ugly at times. Unfettered capitalism would give us conditions like the Triangle Shirtwaist horror of young girls jumping to their death. It was the largest industrial horror in NYC until 9/11. !46 died and 62 girls as young as 12 jumped to their deaths from the 9th floor. The best measures to allow exit were not employed.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_shirtwaist

    Now if that sounds impossible today, I recall about 15 years ago how many accidents involving decapitations occurred because trucks were not mandated to have a beam and supported iron A-frame so in a rear accident the car cannot go under the tractor. They did not want to spend about $200 a tractor. A friend of mine was involved in refurbishing a part of something that 90% here use each year and 99% use in their life. Failure will possibky cause death to all involved with the device. (I am purposely being vague). He won a contract and was shortly afterwards contacted by a certain group of people that told him to certify the parts and send them out without being worked on as they weren't paying the full fee. AND, if he went to the authorities it would be a very big mistake. They meant that he would be killed. He knew some people who thankfully were able to intervene and the contract went to the next bidder. What happened later he did not know. Yes, life sometimes, and often in Eastern Europe, works that way.

    My point is that if organizations are perfectly willing to save money when lives might be at risk, is rigging a trade by firms and factions of our government a surprise to anyone? It shouldn't be. We are becoming like some European countries where all hands in the chain get greased and where the largest protestors against sinners, like Jimmy Swaggert, are so sick that they don't realize they themselves are the problem. Obama called the secured Chrysler Bond holders, “Greedy Investors” and they were threatened with the use of the White House Press Corps to destroy them. Yet he is the largest criminal of all, IMO, as none of what we see is not approved by him. And now, he is attempting to steal from us our rights to see the doctor we chose and will cut care to the elderly. I do not believe for a moment that it is in Obama's personality to delegate anything so all of what we see is aproved with plausible deniability.

    I'm almost finished Galbraith's “The Great Crash: 1929″ and I'm more convinced than ever that a sharp decline is not about some of us making money while most of America loses. This iss well beyond money. We need the S&P under 500 for a number of years and a lot more pain. We did not listen to a previous president and now we are in this economic and moral mess. If we do not get back on course, we also land on the dust bin of nations. In fact, I think Adam Smith wrote a book on morality prior to “The Wealth of Nations.”

    James Garfield, the twentieth president of the United States, said the following in 1877:

    “Now more than ever before, the people are responsible for the character of their Congress. If that body be ignorant, reckless and corrupt, it is because the people tolerate ignorance, recklessness and corruption. If it be intelligent, brave and pure, it is because the people demand these high qualities to represent them in the national legislature…. If the next centennial does not find us a great nation … it will be because those who represent the enterprise, the culture, and the morality of the nation do not aid in controlling the political forces.”

    I mentioned this is a previous posting. I sent out 700+ e-mails to homeowners association members requesting only a 1 page letter to send to Marines that were deployed. I received 5 letters and a sixth chastizing me for helping to keep the troops moral up for an unjust war. What I didn't add was that 2 weeks later Verizon said if they received enough e-mails they would add a cell tower to improve reception. They had 30 e-mails to send just in the first 24 hours. So cell phone reception is more important than thanking a young man or woman for providing our freedom. And I live in the south! But it has beeen infested with Northeners, but I must not be typical, I guess.

    I think we despeerately need Prechter, mole, and others to be right. And I think the higher we go the worse the pain will be. I have said for moths now that Obama IS P3. I just hope we are fully allowed to profit from it because we already know that short sellers will be blamed.

    Have a great weekend,
    Steve

    Steve

  • grednfer

    What does the Oscillator say about the SPX next week? Are we going to stay in this range, break higher, or lower.

    The BKX is hanging in there. Thats good especially with the FDIC comments the other day.

  • amokta

    my limited contribution here – bob prechter says we are imminently to start of wave 3 down

  • SpeedSkt1

    Does anyone else think that Mole kinda looks like Russell, the expedition leader of the show Everest, on Discovery Channel? Just throwin it out there….

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Too close to call. The trend could be pausing, or it could be changing, the C.O. can't tell yet. It's designed to force me to stay in trades (necessary to offset my chicken nature). The most recent intra-day signals it's given are long at 988, stop placement at 1016. It may give an exit signal before the stop is triggered, I have no idea. I will say though that I do not expect P2 to end in a whimper — it should be one last delusional fit of explosive bullishness. But that's just my instinct.

  • steveo77

    Great rant dude.

  • steveo77

    Excuse me young lady?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Interesting you mentioned ES 1025 and 1015. I wrote a double-size short SPY call position at ES 1025 (in part to hedge unusually large long stock, over the weekend if needed) that got stopped out when ES retraced to 1027. So I lost effectively 4 ES points on the “hedging.” But looking back at all the signals, I think I'd do it again as my target was exactly that ES 1015 area. Potential 5:1 risk/reward.

    In fact a weaker strategy in the morning played out as expected. Short ES at 1035 with a stop at 1038.5 and the target of 1028-7. Just a 2:1 risk/reward. But the “story” was better: no reasonably good economic reports could justify last night's run-up.

    So a net positive day for me thanks to the short side, cancelling out Tuesday's bad whipsaw. But my real money for the week was on the long side, just like you said: equivalent ES 1018 to 1032 yesterday.

    When the biggest trend of the week is like yesterday afternoon's but to the downside, then we'll know we're on the way.

  • Trader_Steve

    Calm down little lady…or I'll have to put my Obama picture back up….LOL

    Steve

  • T_dub

    Yes, keep us posted on the Chicken Oscillator. Guiding light, that !

  • annamall

    ooops I happily apologise my Hawaiian friend! :-D

  • annamall

    Oh I don't mind that, no matter whether I agree with his politics, he is still a very ta;; good looking man with a smile that dazzles. How do you think he won by such a landslide!

    :-D

  • annamall

    I just hope he's not his early usual self! :-)

  • annamall

    I plead the 5th amendment! ;-P

  • steveo77

    I think you have to be really smart (trading wise) or accepting of dumb. The tricks are all aimed at the middle smart with money.

  • cramar

    I thought everyone was a bear here. Have I gotten the wrong cave?

  • Fujisan

    New Post~

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    we yet have to post a higher daily close on NDX sometimes by the middle of the next week
    I could not force myself to look at the charts today, but I will do a detailed post on all counts of DeMark indicators weekly and daily, but in few words it might be summed up right now – next week (or at most the week after that) will mark the end of this leg up and, may be, the end of “make believe” rally.
    It looks like different methods (Fuji's, Mole's etc) are all pointing to the same point of time.
    dontblong !

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    nothing would have happened to em – I was always late for work :)
    never came to work before 9:30 in my past “cube life”

  • byhiselo

    <<And now, he is attempting to steal from us our rights to see the doctor we chose and will cut care to the elderly>>

    are you bloody serious…fox noise has a place for you as a host perhaps…cut care for the elderly?…pure vitriol…i can't see any doctor i want now without depleting my savings even with a decent insurance plan…how many in this country can't see any doctor at all because they don't have insurance and a visit out of pocket would affect their ability to pay the rent and put food on the table?…should everyone without health insurance simply go to public hospitals..who pays for that?…and the $20 you gave the other day to the guy on the street with the placard and tear in his eye…was that all you had on you? could you have given more and not missed it?…your true colors are showing and they are not red white and blue despite your militaristic patriotism…and speaking of unjust wars the civil war was an unjust war in that the southern states had every constitutional right to secede…i come from a family with a long military history…its easy to wrap yourself around the flag but very hard give your life for it…give it a rest

  • steveo77

    There is a scenario where ES pushes to 1120 very quickly. I am short but you need to establish now, what you would do if ES and SPY when to 1120, would you “know” that was the top, or would you panic out somewhere in between, because if that is the top, the retrace down from there could be fast…very fast, like 50 points in 5 minutes kind of fast, like a stop sweep fast.

    And what if 1120 wasn't the top. Would your account be OK? would you know the next target or action point, or would that be capitulation then? Nothing wrong with capitulation, as long as it is coldly calculated, not just reacted to in the heat of the moment.

    I am short but cautious/watchful. EWI came out with strong short call…EWI get gamed because HBB knows so many people follow it.

    In my humble but studied opinion.

  • grednfer

    On another index…..I think the $RUT is totally tapped out…..I shorted it
    today with TF at 588…..with a preset hook. The $RUT Russell 2K is up like
    73% off the low.

    My chart with diags and fib arcs say its going down but bulls don't buy with
    charts they just buy.

    I don't know how long this can stay up here but I'm hedging with the DOW
    until the down breaks closes below 9450. I need to see a top trading range
    that becomes resistance. Right now, I don't know where the top is.

    Thanks for the Oscillator opinion.

  • Trader_Steve

    Steve wrote:
    <<And now, he is attempting to steal from us our rights to see the doctor we chose and will cut care to the elderly>>

    >>are you bloody serious?…fox noise has a place for you as a host perhaps…cut care for the elderly?…pure vitriol…i can't see any doctor i want now without depleting my savings even with a decent insurance plan…how many in this country can't see any doctor at all because they don't have insurance and a visit out of pocket would affect their ability to pay the rent and put food on the table?…should everyone without health insurance simply go to public hospitals..who pays for that?…and the $20 you gave the other day to the guy on the street with the placard and tear in his eye…was that all you had on you? could you have given more and not missed it?…your true colors are showing and they are not red white and blue despite your militaristic patriotism…and speaking of unjust wars the civil war was an unjust war in that the southern states had every constitutional right to secede…despite what the cult of lincoln would have one believe, he issued the emancipation proclamation only when it seemed the north would lose the war…i come from a family with a fairly long military history with five known killed on the battlefield…spare me your preaching…its easy to wrap yourself around the flag but very hard give your life for it…peace out<<

    I log ago decided not to engage in a debate with someone I have 50 IQ points on and who is an ignorant assh*le void of the facts.. YOU have not read most of the bill while I have. You have no idea of what you are speaking about. You are a drone. I image you think there are really 47 million uninsured. And even if you do, you have no idea what the estimates are of what OMB says wiil be achied in 10 years. You also don't see that this is not Obama being the kind, compasionate leader, for he is a lying narcisist. Try to make it to page 16 of the bill to see howw quickly you geet thrown into the goverment plan. Then jump to pages 396 to 426 and look at “end of life” counseling. And maybe you want to read the Eugenics Program of Rahm Emmanuel's physician brother who says doctors need to forget about the hipocratic oath and the greater good of society, which si what Socrates belieeved in, you uneducated dolt.

    It is Obama the power hungry Marxist who hates the America he sees. Many billions must be cut under Obamacare. It's coming from the elderly and the young that are sick.

    As to my “donation” it's none of your business. I could prove, and humiliate, your disgusting comment with a few incidents but I really don't see the need to make them public.

    Steve

    P.S. Sorry i can't eduate you more. Marine Cpl Damas arrives tomorrow at noon at the airport in a draped coffin and I have been up all night trying to contact Marines to be there when the plane lands. Feel free to look up his death in Afghanistan. Not all off us fight the war overseas! And as to your plan, under Obamacare you won't have one in 4 years. You and illegals (and they probably won't be illegals then) will have the same plan and it will be rationed. If you don't realize that you are a bigger fool than I think you are for spreading your “bloddy” propaganda.

  • Trader_Steve

    Thanks…I always have ones and they are always correct.

    Steve

  • Trader_Steve

    He won because Bush couldn't sell a war that Clinton could have and it was anyone but Bush. The willing media sold McCain as Bush III, which he was not. The few people I know who voted for Obama know nothing about the detestable atheist and Marxist Saul Alinsky (the man who wrote his bible) or what a Marxist looks like. People lowered their standards that they voted for a man who was introduced to politics by a man (William Ayers)who set off 21 bombs on American soil and who handed out over $100 million dollars with him in The Annenburg Challenge in Chicago that was widely wasted while attempting to propagandize the minds of children.

    He bought a home under very questionable circumstances with one Tony Rezko who introduced him to an Iraqi billionaire weeks before, but Obama has no recollection of it. Rezko just happened to get a large amount of money from the billionaire weeks before the sale of the home. Eleven buildings in Obama's congressional district were not fixed up with money Obama secured from the government for Rezko and he claimed he never noticed their disrepair. Obama does not care about anyone but himself and he is a racist. It is plain from reading his first book, “Dreams from my Father” that he wanted to rip his whiteness out in a violent act as Malcolm X wanted to do and he sat in that church with the very racist Reverand Wright andd sucked in his sermons.

    Voting for Obama was partly a large exerercise by many who felt liberal guilt for what they perceived as years of black oppression. And it was not a record turnout.

    If you need to have an IQ of 90 to vote, liberals lose all elections. Those are their peeps.

    He's has added $12 trillion to the deficit and the generals are asking for a plan in Afghanistan and he has none because he never ran a lemonade stand.

    How did he win? He presented himself as a clean slate (one of Alinsky's rules is to not allow yourself to be pinned down…just promise change) and he lied through his teeth and allowed himself to have projected upon him the hopes and wishes of part of a nation that didn't see him for what he is. He is a stone-cold Marxist.

    As to good looking, are you really serious?

    Billy Dee Williams, Cart Weathers, Sidney Poitier..all are good looking black men. Obama has been packaged as good looking. yes, he has a nice smile…Stalin had one too.

    The guy is no good and America will not prosper under his tenure. Hois election was a mistake. That the media does not criticise things he does that they would have crucified Bush for is not only egregious, it is dangerous.

    America is finished. It was written in stone when eh bowed to the Saudi Shiek. Sofieties that have lasted for many years have always had storytekkers speak of he greatness of the tribe to the children. Now, they tech them that America is always wrong. Those kids grew up and were the decising factor in Obaama winning. But he just lost the elderly vote. If he can make 30 million illegals eligible to vote we are toast as they will vote for the money of others, and Obama will give it to them.

    Glad you asked? (g)
    Steve

  • byhiselo

    <<someone I have 40-50 IQ points on>>

    impressive, please continue and don't spend them all in one place…you're the only one blessed with insight into the bill and how it will affect me and my family…obama and his administration are already bought and paid for by special interests, not my boy…but true health care reform in this country is the right thing based on nothing else but the propaganda of those against it…

  • amokta

    yes, some folks say he has been early, or made some wrong calls in the past

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Yes, if the market starts tanking, FAZ will take off. I believe that we have a 150 point correction on our hands over next 5 to 6 weeks. 870 is now like rock solid, stronge that concrete etc etc kind of support. It will not give way IMO. I still believe that 870 hit in early Oct will launch us into a mssive massive rally into end of year.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Monday will likely be a trend down day with 980 visited by mid-week.

    Warm Regards,
    Ashish

    ——
    sent from my mobile device

  • molecool

    Sure – fade Prechter and trade what 'some folks' are telling you – instant riches!!!

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    Agreed on the target, I have been discussing the 1050 range as another area where one should watch for a consolidation/correction. Since many seem to expect that this flat base is going to resolve how the pattern did in June (downwards), than a breakout and run to 1050 may be just what the market needs http://bit.ly/dQJVb

  • Blind_Squirrel

    As difficult as it is for me to keep logging in to Disqus to comment, I have to say you are Dead On Right Trader Steve!!!!!!!!!!!

    The sheeple will soon find out that the change they voted for was a wolf in sheeps clothing.

    You also have my respect for remembering those serving our country.

  • Trader_Steve

    Appreciate it.

    Thank you,
    Steve

  • Blind_Squirrel
  • Trader_Steve

    I'm just wondering who will write the first book that exposes the corruption AFTER the rest of America is in fear of our survival for allowing the people who control Obama to have destroyed our way of life.

    History is a wondeful thing. Sadly, we don't even have a media that will cover current affairs fairly, let alone schools teaching why nations fell. Where these is smoke, they say, there is fire. This guy reeks of the embers about to sset us ablaze.

    As to Alex Jones, he may have some merit in some areas, but he's a showman and not my kinds of “credible” source for information. There are plenty of ways to put all the pieces together without having to use him as the source.

    Thanks,
    Steve

  • Trader_Steve

    Go to http://www.killology.org and read Lt. Colonel Grossman's “On Sheep, Wolves, and Sheepdogs.”

    He is an expert on the psychology of killing and testified after Columbine. One of his points is that we have made killing antiseptic to children via video gaames. I wish someone wrote one where a kid wioth guns enters a school and you are back from a deployment, draw your weapon, and take him out.

    Steve
    AKA – Fledgling Sheep Dog.
    If anyone has a problem with people being discretly armed in church there is no need to look my way…you won't see my concealed weapon. And why do we have a cop or two now at church in uniform? Hmm…something heading our way from the training camps in the US? We know of them..we just have no laws to shut them down. “Everybody was Jihad Fighting….”

  • springheel_jack

    All about limitations I think steveo. When you're middle smart with money, you're particularly vulnerable because you are used to winning, and you don't know how much you don't know.

    There are boundaries within which we can develop an edge. If we can identify those, and stick with a good system, we can beat the market when circumstances are favorable, and back off and wait until the right opportunity arrives when they aren't favorable.

    It takes a lot of self discipline to do that though.

  • springheel_jack

    No the failed H&S was the worst kind of failure. I saw & recognised the bottoming pattern & even told katzo I thought it was going bad early on the Monday morning, but I just couldn't believe the market could have another big wave up at an SPX P/E over 120+ (reported earnings), and didn't cover early enough.

    It was made worse by the fact that I was trying to make a lot of money over the summer to buy something that it really isn't sensible for me to buy. Bad motivation.

    Self-discipline is the hardest thing to master. Never getting married to a play is really hard. Waitiing for the trade to come to you is hard too.

    We live and learn mate.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    All about limitations I think steveo. When you're middle smart with money, you're particularly vulnerable because you are used to winning, and you don't know how much you don't know.

    There are boundaries within which we can develop an edge. If we can identify those, and stick with a good system, we can beat the market when circumstances are favorable, and back off and wait until the right opportunity arrives when they aren't favorable.

    It takes a lot of self discipline to do that though.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    No the failed H&S was the worst kind of failure. I saw & recognised the bottoming pattern & even told katzo I thought it was going bad early on the Monday morning, but I just couldn't believe the market could have another big wave up at an SPX P/E over 120+ (reported earnings), and didn't cover early enough.

    It was made worse by the fact that I was trying to make a lot of money over the summer to buy something that it really isn't sensible for me to buy. Bad motivation.

    Self-discipline is the hardest thing to master. Never getting married to a play is really hard. Waitiing for the trade to come to you is hard too.

    We live and learn mate.





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