Pivots Trading

Fujisan here.

It’s been so much fun visiting Vegas once again — too bad that I have to fly back to Seattle tomorrow morning.

Before I head out for a dinner tonight, I am going to make one quick post that I would like to share with you – that is how to use the pivots to your advantages.

Depending upon your trading time frame, the pivots could be used in a monthly, weekly, and daily set up, and let me give you a very good example of monthly setup with my GBP/JPY trades.

GBP/JPY Trade

Before I was taking off for Japan, I saw GBP/JPY was hitting right around the monthly R1 pivot points.  I then built my position right around a doji that I saw on Aug 8th 4 hour time frame.  High of the doji was 163.06, and low was 162.44, and I set up my entry point one pip below the low of doji (163.43) and a stop one pip above the high of doji (163.07) risking 64 pips.  I didn’t know if it would make it all the way down to S1 level, but I know it would go at least down to PP level (pink pivots points), which was about 800 pips away, so my reward would be 800 pips, which would make a pretty good risk/reward ratio.

Doji high 163.06
Doji low 162.44

Entry Point 162.43
Stop Loss 163.07
Risk 64 pips
Reward 800 pips

Now, because I had such a poor internet connection in Japan (yes, my hometown is surrounded by the rice fields and you can catch wild prawns in a little creek), I just let it run and moved my stops occasionally, and as a result, I was able to make more than 1000 pips in a matter of a couple of weeks!  (In a retrospect, I would have closed my positions much earlier if I was managing it actively).

Now, my point here is that, I was able to pick almost the exact high of the month and exit very close to the low of the month all because of the pivot points. 

Currently, GBP/JPY is getting very close to monthly S1 level, so I would be looking for another doji to go long if showing up around monthly S1 level.

You can use daily, weekly, and monthly setup, and I use 15 minutes charts for daily, hourly charts for weekly, and 4 hours for monthly.  If you combine pivots with your favorite momentum indicators (such as stoch, RSI, MACD – it’s your pick), this will become even more powerful.

Trading the Futures with the Pivots

The pivots will work not only for currency trades, but works quite well with the futures.  (Although I would have to say that the currencies are 75% technical driven, so TA works much better on the currencies than the futures). 

I see so many people are frustrated with picking the direction.  As I pointed out in my posting yesterday and today, we will be in this trading range for another week or so, and if you don’t know how to pick the direction, you may be better off sitting in the sideline until you know where we are going. 

If you still like to trade, the market will give us a great opportunity to make money in both directions, if you know how to pick the direction.

Now, let’s take a look at NQ.  I would say NQ is much easier to trade than ES for some reasons - NQ seems to be more TA driven than ES. 

This is Friday’s tape.  As you can see, you can go short right at R1 level at the openings, and then take a profit at PP level, flip your position and go long, and close the position at the close.  Both bulls and bears would have made money by simply using the pivots.

Now, if you look at ES, it’s not as easy as NQ.  ES does not follow the pivots as closely as NQ, and you would have to use other indicators to initiate buy/sell signals, and in this case, you can combine BB buy/sell signals as a trigger points. 

What I normally do and quite helpful is to look at different indices and ETFs and use the index that follows the pivots closely.  In this case, if you are trading ES, look at NQ setup and go short and long based on NQ setup.  The timing is quite similar and give you an extra confidence that the market is ready to turn.

Weekend Homework

If you like to study the pivots over the weekend, please check out John Person’s book “Candle Stick and Pivot Point Trading Triggers.

If you have an account with TOS, you can check out the chat archives to see the webinars hosted by John Person himself.

Topping Pattern Formation Update

Here is how it looked back in June.

Here is now….  Looks familiar?

Have a good weekend, everybody!

This entry was posted on Friday, August 28th, 2009 at 8:28 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • http://esecfutures.com Vladz

    Excellent post Fuji, thanks a lot.

    Along with fx pivots, pivots on GC , gold futs work very well too.

    As far as looking for buying monthly S1, with new month starting Tuesday, would you still take the setup if it came along sunday/monday?

    Have a good weekend

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    you're the best fuji, safe travels

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    [repost - now Fuji timed me perfectly - good school Mole! :)]
    we yet have to post a higher daily close on NDX sometimes by the middle of the next week
    I could not force myself to look at the charts today, but I will do a detailed post on all counts of DeMark indicators weekly and daily, but in few words it might be summed up right now – next week (or at most the week after that) will mark the end of this leg up and, may be, the end of “make believe” rally.
    It looks like different methods (Fuji's, Mole's etc) are all pointing to the same point of time.
    dontblong !

  • Ghostdog

    As I see it from my last post we have completed the final v wave up of Y of C of (2). Which means we have fulfilled the wave completion as well as time and price obejective set up on march and laid out last friday night.

    It is time to start getting short but certainly not in the near term months because all us smart traders need confirmantion before we pile in, right? While we have hit the targets and wave structure, the confirmation still needs to occur. There are two other scenarios that may unfold. If new highs happen then I will view todays v wave high (see chart) as the top of Wave i. Either way we should be in store for a pullback here. If this is not the top then look for a 5 wave pattern to unfold (with a pull back next) with a target in the DJIA of approx 10,300 or there abouts with hitting that sometime in late Sep or early Oct.

    A lot will depend on what unfolds over the next few days but there you have it, at least from my perspective. Its time to get your long dated option positions boys and girls. Personally I think we will push the highs one more time to the alternate but you cant risk not getting in here. its an easy play because we are so close to the highs. But whether the top is in or we move the last leg, its still time to lay in those put spreads.

    If we make new highs I will lay out an alternate count but for now lets think nice thoughts about finally starting to get them on the ropes.. even if they dont know it.

    60 minute overview
    http://www.screencast.com/users/GhostdogWarrior

    60 minute close up
    http://www.screencast.com/users/GhostdogWarrior

    have a great weekend y'all

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    test

  • Zhang_Ke

    Thank you Fuji san! I have really enjoyed your posts! I'll be in Vegas myself after a couple of weeks in Europe and China. I love that city!

    I have also recently been following Mole's (and your) posts on currency trading. What I thought I was seeing and reading was a trading plan of using a move back inside a Bollinger Band after an excursion outside and then partial exits at the pivot points (opposite of the entry signal). I think this fits with your post here. It is also interesting to note that in the John Carter “Mastering the Trade” book, he also mentions trading the NQ rather than the ES – especially for beginners. I don't recall the reason, but it seems that there is more gamesmanship going on with the ES.

    Thanks again for the great posts! John

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    RIMM

  • http://www.gamingthemarket.com/ gamingthemarket

    Thinkorswim platform is now available for TDAmeritrade clients. My broker called me on Wed. with the news and a great 30 min. chat.

    If you use StrategyDesk the ToS platform is a quantum leap ahead. It makes trade execution so much easier. No more chart lag! We can now see market internals along with futures and Forex. Person's Pivots is a standard chart strategy you can add, which is so handy. Those pivots have made a big difference in my trading.

    A total package for active traders had been an AMTD weakness–in the past. The difference now with ToS is amazing. They also give senior accounts a $7 commission w/ unlimited shares. This combo is now pretty hard to beat for a retail trader.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    would be interesting if what I wrote as of July 5th will be 100% accurate
    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2009/07/es-s
    now – I need to hire someone to trade my analysis :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    well, most of people here have been TOS client for ages :)
    SD was always a real POS dying if you scan more than 50 stocks, Opt360 just pathetic, the only good complete interface for AMTD was QuoteTracker for a long time now.

    Interestingly enough – I am APEX level at AMTD, but I don't see any shortcut to TOS there (and yes – I am all levels options approved)

    Also – AMTD does not advertise TOS as “futures/forex” capable – is that functionality disabled in AMTD version of TOS?

  • Dan Robbins

    Be careful with the Person's Pivots study on TOS – they may not plot as expected if you have the Person's filter turned on. The methodology is that if the Pivot is up, then your bullish target is the R2 and the bearish target is the S1. However, if you view prior periods, then they tend to take their plot from the current timeperiod, which makes it harder to visually backtest. The Person's methodology is sound, it's just the implementation that's off. My suggestion is to turn off the filter and as you analyze, keep in mind the bullish or bearish targets that are appropriate for the timeperiod.

  • ablebonus

    Doomo arigatoo gozaimus Fuji-San!! You make it all seem so simple, glad to see your safe return and good luck.

  • Joe8888

    Article..

    The stock rally has been explained as taking place because the U.S. economy is recovering. At least in some cases, valuations are as ridiculous as they were at the top of the tech bubble in 2000. Take a look at the Dow's PE for instance. This morning, the government released more 'good news' that seems to fall into the 'that can't possibly happen' category. Personal spending was up 0.2% last month, but incomes were unchanged. Even though incomes were unchanged, total wage income went up (during a time of increasing unemployment). Spending has supposedly been rising for the last three months, well ahead of income, even though the savings rate is 4.2%. Separate reports indicate that available consumer credit has been cut drastically. So even though U.S. consumers don't have the income and don't have access to credit, they are somehow spending more. I really think the U.S. government should release its statistical reports on stationary that has pictures of pigs flying in the background. That way the public would know how much credibility the numbers have.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    why would anyone pay any attention to reports produced by people who are saving their butts?

  • Joe8888

    Could this be the top of the rally,on the DOW JONES….Monthly Chart… A backtest of a channel break & 50 % rally….
    9700 ish give or take 50 points…

    .

  • PRSGuitars

    Bollingers are great, however, DONT just trade bollingers — they are just as likely to slide along the bollinger (when price moves to a 2.0 std dev extreme, sure, it's likely to reverse… but if prices got pushed that far, why did they? Because there was extreme buying/selling — so be careful, wait till the reversal is really ON before you take a bollinger trade). Combine with strength indicators — $TICK, volume profile, etc. — that's how I trade VWAP bands (std. dev from vwap bands) on an intraday basis.

    I trade the ES but NQ is probably better for beginner futures traders — the tick size (minimum shift in price) is $5.00 instead of $12.50 and many would argue the NQ trades more along the principles of technical analysis and thus is a better training tool, if not trading vehicle regardless of experience — though I have a preference for /es because it's easy to learn the levels of support and resistance (as it pertains to SPX; I hardly watch nasdaq so…I'm biased…) and I feel it trades SOMEWHAT along basic TA, however, there will always be some sort of whipsaw going on as it's open to being gamed by the larger traders. It is the most liquid and widely-traded futures contract by retail traders (at least on TOS' platform, but i assume that's true across the board) so I also find comfort in trading a superliquid market no matter the time.

    Just my 2 cents. There's also a great trade to be taken pairs trading NQ/ES — go long one /nq, short one /es (or vice versa) for a small directional bet (ES is bigger than NQ so position accordingly). You'll spend money on contracts traded, sure, but being hedged is imperative in these crazy markets so long as you don't churn your account with millions of trades.

  • byhiselo

    universal health care will be good for the US stock market in the longer-term…personal expenditures going to the bottom line of insurance and pharma companies will be redirected to food, clothing, housing, transportation, leisure, etc…think about it…decent, affordable health care is a right not a privilege unless you live in most of africa, asia, south america…and parts of north america

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I've been busting my balls to understand what is happening.

    regardless of everything you might think the market is still within certain scenarios

    One thing I know, if this thing busts 1040's I'm out of my shorts and triple long till 1150 and after seing that top taken out I'll be fully triple long till 1240

    either that or double long in gold

    so far this is what happened in the 2000's

    They are pumping 4th legs to breack the trend, the market accepts but gold skyrockets and REAL INFLATION at 15% a year takes over

    WELCOME TO HELL

    p.s. guess what happens to your salaries? nominal inflation raises? LOL they're chinesing (impoverishing, no ofense meant if there are chinese in the room) the west as far as salaries and fixed income is concerned

    p.ps. and equity is also debased, the 2007 high (nominaly higher thatn 2000) was -55% in gold, and at leat -20% even discounting the gold peak and using milder real prices

    p.p.s. and houses?

    basicaly we are being told that our wealth is worthless

  • byhiselo

    if you truly believe this, than its probably best financially at least, to sell all assets in usa and move to places like mexico

    personally, i want to watch this drama unfold although canada is an option as the mrs is from that communist place and i have some good amigos from third world mexico…good drugs down there at least

  • prescient11

    Fuck this shit. Market should rally on MOnday, then who the fuck knows, fyi.

  • byhiselo

    touche et touche plus…everyone with gobberment jobs…avarice and war and plunder forever…a 7th century ideal if you like …1 in 7 jobs in usa are federal/state/municipal…factor in the business that depends on these “free market” enterprises and you have 1/4 to 1/3 of the economy feeding off the rest…private sector firing and public sector hiring…same as it ever was…why can't we all work in the public sector with pension and benefits to die for?…oh wait, thats a hardship position that requires long hours and and an unwavering commitment to customer service…higher taxes? hell yea, same bucket so whats the problem?…only the best and brightest and productive need apply…freedom fries, without french assistance..no american revolution

  • prescient11

    It's about time to nail some shit to a door.

    Freedom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

  • byhiselo

    eloquent, why should it not crash?

  • grednfer

    You can always sell the further month on the futures as a hedge too (U&Z). Some liquidity and B/A issues but they track together.

    Try this one as the down side gets going….you can paper trade it ….sell TF and buy YM. That one worked well today.

  • Trader_Steve

    Oh, I like that and I agree.

    Steve

  • steveo77

    Well the Gov pumped say $10T into the economy, making the future generations pay for the recent 2 decades of avarice. Net result? A minor and temporary reduction in losses in GDP.

    Will bank foreclosures decrease or accelerate as the well documented increase in mortgage rate resets, and continued massive increases in unemployment go on? Convince yourself, research the mortgage rate resets that are baked in the cake…this is going to end very badly. I am not convinced it starts next week, but it does have a chance, at least in the stock market. However, after the largest mania of perhaps a millenium, why not a 61% retrace of the prior highs, why not indeed.

    It seems obvious with the highest bullish percent sentiment EVER, that the masses have not learned a thing. They seem to believe that somehow this “economy” based on a house of cards and corruption is actually “resilient” thus proving how strong it is. It does pain me to watch my beloved country turn into this mess.

    http://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/index….

  • Trader_Steve

    I strongly disagree. Business are already laying off people and closing due to the regulations that will be imposed on them. The market rallied the other day when it was announced that health care would be delayed.

    The mkt is up ONLY to help Obama sell his bullshit. When there is no longer a need for it, the intervention will stop, unless mkt dynamics turn it lower, as on Monday.

    Steve

  • http://www.gamingthemarket.com/ gamingthemarket

    ToS download is under the Trading Tools tab. There's a giant banner for it. AMTD will have futures/forex trading available in a few months. The feeds are active, but if you try and trade anything but equities/options you'll get an error message. It's nice to finally see the price of gold and oil without having to look it up on Bloomberg.

    If you do several hundred trades a year ask your Apex rep. for a lower commission.

  • Iguanadon

    DavidDT, you said below that you just need to hire someone to trade your advice… I just looked back and here are my posts from March 4 and March 5… I need to do the same thing… follow my own advice.

    ====

    Thursday, March 5, 2009
    I Did It… Well Half Of It
    I put my right foot in and I'm shaking it all about… yep, I put 1/2 of my retirement back into the market. We got down to the 680 range on the S&P and if my target of 650 is accurate, this is close enough. When a bottom does happen, there will be a sharp upward move during that day and since my retirement money goes in at the end of the day I figured I'd just go for it. If I were smart I'd have waited for that big bottoming and upswing day, but nobody ever said I was smart.

    I'm also expecting the gov't to come up with another rabbit and figured I'd beat them to the punch. They're going to review and discuss the mark to market rule on the 12th. I don't think they'll do anything but they could feel enough pressure by then to change the rule for a period of time.

    How about Citigroup selling for a buck a share now. Amazing. It was $55 at it's peak, one of if not the largest conglomerate banking institution in the world and it's on the verge of disappearing. General Motors can be had for under two bucks along with Ford. So many stocks selling for under $10 or even $5. Four or five of them part of the Dow 30.

    I did save 1/2 of my retirement in case I was way off the mark. I'm comfortable if I hit the low withing 10%. I got out at the high within 7%.

    Keep in mind, this is only a “temporary” bottom. The rally we get will last a few months and will take us up near 10,000 on the Dow, but then it'll be time to pull out and watch from the sidelines.

    I hope I didn't mis-time this in a big way. I don't see the S&P going below 600 during this set of waves. But quite honestly I don't see anything to turn things around at this point. I'm hoping for bargain hunters. The big boys are all waiting for 650. That's another reason I got in at 680. As soon as everyone has the same target, it tends to not quite get there.

    Posted by Iguanadon at 5:53 PM 0 comments
    Wednesday, March 4, 2009
    Here's How It'll Play Out
    As we get closer to the end of major wave 1 the picture is getting a little clearer.

    Down to 650 on the S&P within the next 3 weeks will mark the end of major wave 1.

    A rally to the 900-975 range will take place over the next couple of months as hope and wishful thinking that the end of the economic mess is getting close.

    Then reality sinks in that we're far from cleaning up the giant mess we've been building the past 20 years. S&P down to 400.

    (rough Dow translation: Down to 6300, up to near 10,000 (possibly go over 10,000 by a little bit to suck folks in), drop to 4000))

    If I'm correct about the near term bottom and the rally, please heed my advice when we approach 950 on the S&P and I say to GET OUT NOW…

    We will not see Dow 14,000 any time in the next decade or more so accept the fact that Dow 10,000 will be as close as we get in order to get out.

    We still have a number of shoes to drop… credit card debt, commercial real estate, local and state gov't budget deficits, pension plan problems, corporate bankruptcies…

    It'll be easy to get into the mindset that all is well during the upcoming rally and it'll be very difficult to hear that things are not as they appear. I just hope you're willing to take the chance that I'm right when the time comes. You may miss out on a 10% rise if I'm wrong, but you risk losing over 50% of what you have left.

    A lot to watch and see, but it's exciting.

  • TexEx

    Wonderful post, Fuji.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1. I live in Europe
    2. I had planned (20 years ago) on leaving UE/USA before 2020
    3. I want to make some money to pass through the worse of it

    best regards

  • byhiselo

    i figured you would so we agree to disagree..btw, nothing personal and may the best and right way win

  • anotherone

    How do you unlike a comment? I hit the like tag by mistake as I was going to reply.

    byhiselo, I disagree totally. Healthcare is not a free or even cheap thing to have. It takes resources to provide and somebody has to pay for those resources. Either the recipient pays or money is taken from someone else to pay. No other options. Private insurance lets people voluntarily enter into agreements to share each others costs. Government run health care is nothing more than stealing money from one group to pay for medical costs of another. Why should I have to pay for someone's lung transplant when they chose to smoke 3 packs a day for years.

    Healthcare isn't a right. Health insurance isn't a right. The ability to speak freely, assemble with others and choose your religious expression are rights.

  • byhiselo

    <>

    i liked yours so we're even, grin

    health care is not a right and it certainly won't be free regardless of what system we end up with…if medicare were to end on monday what options would those who currently rely on it have?

    if one is against universal healthcare then one must be against medicare and let every man, women and child fend for themselves

  • ropey

    Yep they've been great at lowering commissions, got another discount this week yay..
    As for forex/futures, i can't bloody wait – been waiting a year for TOS Canada to catch up – a rep from TOS said they are being worked on but no ETA, i am itching to trade both for real, papertrading them after a while gets dull lol – canadian regulars do my head in.

  • ropey

    don't forget to check out their tutorials, they're excellent for the most part.

  • ropey

    Trying to keep an open mind on direction ( regardless of my personal bias )..

    Interesting post from zerohedge..
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meltup-cometh

  • anotherone

    Thanks for the like. :)

    Your statement:

    if one is against universal healthcare then one must be against medicare and let every man, women and child fend for themselves

    doesn't hold water. It is possible to oppose universal healthcare, but feel that medicare is a socially beneficial thing to do.

    And that's where I'll have to leave the discussion.

  • Joe8888

    Man you guys are really a tough group,before anyone here hits the ” LIKE Button “,You really got to earn it! i like it…,,,

  • LDanil

    like the pictures

  • Zhang_Ke

    PRS,

    Thanks for the feedback on my note!

    I've also noted that Mole mentions other indicators when trading the
    FX and not just bollinger bands. In fact, VWAP is one that he
    mentions frequently and I need to do some more research on it. I've
    also generally looked at slow stochastics, RSI, and MACD, but I think
    that they for the most part are just different mathematical
    representations of the same base information. That is to say that
    they are all linked and act similarly. What a person needs is an
    indicator that is derived from different base information – such as
    volume as you suggest.

    Thanks also for your thoughts on the ES versus NQ question. Despite
    the advice in the book and my relatively new status at trading, I
    still choose to trade the ES. Might be the same as the NQ and I tend
    to see patterns and reversals (along with overbought and oversold
    indicators, including RSI divergence) which help me trade. Lately,
    I've really come to look more for the price action/RSI divergence.

    Thanks again for the feedback!

  • LDanil

    Fujisan, Do you have any good ideas on options trades to play the pullback.
    I am thinking to do the following on QQQQ:
    buy Sept 40 put (QQQUN.X) .65
    sell Dec 36 put (QQQXJ.X) .99
    sell Dec 32 put (QAVXF.X) .44
    credit = .78

  • Joe8888

    Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

    http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idU
    .

  • LDanil

    Totally agree, The target for this pattern completion is 54.3
    There is a chance that RIMM could find support at 60.47 because of the resistance if this break down then 54.3 is the target.
    RIMM is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on September 24.
    I was thinking about different options strategies to play that:
    the most attractive is to sell longer puts like in 60 area and buy in the money.
    if stock goes lower to 60 I am ok to own it.
    What is your play on RIMM?

  • amokta

    if i wanted to buy puts, in anticipation that markets will fall, and happy to wait till (say) april 2010, then how best can i spend $8000 in buying puts – what expiration and what strike price is best (obviously i dont want to be so deep out of the money, in case the market doesnt fall as much as we expect).
    any simple advice (exp date, strike price, index option code i need), and likely max premium i should pay. What is my likely profit if say s&p falls to 666
    If not i will just have to sit any wave 3 on the sidelines (i am not upto all the complex day-trading discussed on this site!). hoping to get an options (in UK) account early next week

  • Hng10

    Fujisan – Excellent post. Thanks!

  • rhae

    SPX daily, close… but like they say, That only works with Hand Grenades and Horse Shoe's.
    Most indicators are to slow for itchy fingered traders. However, Time Series Forecast is nice and fast… but nothing else I could match it with would give a cross signal fast enough. So, I used 2 tsf's (9) and off set one of them… Oh, that looks good ….
    http://screencast.com/t/p8alzbj1YT

  • jamesmarkii

    Buy backdated puts on the biggest pig stocks
    GOOG, BIDU, CME, SPY
    Jan 2010
    :)
    enjoy
    (Bank Stocks=BBT, PNC, BAC, WFC)

  • amokta

    thanks for the info!

  • Vardoger

    You got 1000 pips….. on vacation. My life sucks.

    Omedetou gozaimasu!

  • Trader_Steve

    Right! That's why carbon dioxide is now deemed a pollutant. In hearings on global warming they did not allow experts in from the other side to testify.

    It's best to read the now 1 million selling hardcover “Liberty and Tyranny” by Mark Levin. Is is the conservative manifesto to get government off our back.

    Steve

    P.S. I heard a scientist discussing the lack of solar flares. If this goes on much longer it is historically a harbinger of a cooling period coming where crops could fail. Not the “global warming” is now “climate change.” Cool down the gulf stream enough and you make England an ice sheet. Some scientists say they are concerned that in 50-75 years England might be uninhabitable from gulf stream changes they are seeing.

    New “czar” has courts declare Carbon Dioxide as pollutant….will trees be sued to stop consiming it?

    “No nation is conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within” – Historian Will Durant – we are doing a damn fine job with cap-and-trade regualting greenhouse gases. THAT might be (as I believe it will be passed) the death knell to our economy as all companies using fossil fuels will be affected.

    http://www.wcmessenger.com/opinion/columns/EkVp

  • humble1 ™

    be careful, bears. next week could be DISASTER week for the shorts.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not in trading tools for me (may be because I am already TOS customer)
    as for “lower comm” – AMTD put me on $6 flat – I doubt it can get any lower than that

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken
  • jamesmarkii

    because….

  • ACJ

    the problem is REQUIRING people to pay for the supposed “free” healthcare. If you support it, then you pay for it. You can ASK me to, but don't require me. That's socialism, I didn't sign into that chit.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    In the “***”, economic equality was achieved by redistributing wealth, ensuring that everyone remained poor, with the exception of those doing the redistributing. Only the ruling class of communist leaders had access to special stores, medicine and accommodations that could compare to those in the West.

    The rest of the citizenry had to deal with permanent shortages of food and other necessities, and had access to free but inferior, unsanitary and low-tech medical care. The egalitarian utopia of equality, achieved by the sacrifice of individual self-interest for the collective good, led to corruption, black markets, anger and envy.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    full article here – no, it is NOT about USA…is not it?
    http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?i

  • humble1 ™

    that full moon on 9/6 is the 2nd full moon after the 7/22 powerful solar eclipse PLUS venus goes retro.

  • jamesmarkii

    blargh that stuff is poopy

    real phi turn date is sept 14/15 +- 1/2 days
    last phi turn took us from 869 to whatever this weeks topwill be 1052?
    next phi turn 1052 to….a much lower #

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Far OTM puts are great in that they have a very high possible return, and don't lose value very quickly. However, holding them until near expiration isn't really the best strategy — if you're buying very long-dated options, it's sometimes better to dump them a couple months before they expire before the theta burn kicks up. I like the SPY MAR 60 and SPY MAR 70 puts right now. If we see 666 again with high volatility (~50%), they could pretty easily net you a 1000% return by Dec or Jan. But, remember they are risky, so if you're conservative, maybe only invest 10-25% of your capital in them, and use the rest for spreads. (If you're not familiar with spreads, go back and read Fujisan's posts on vertical credit and debit spreads, they're some of the best stuff I've read on options. In short, you know your max gain & loss going in, and you don't stand to lose everything, as you do with a simple naked option position like just buying puts.)

    Hope you get your account set up soon!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yet another weekend read to widen your horizons – from the writer who brought the world “Archipelag Gulag”
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Giving the 1978 Commencement Address at Harvard University, Alexander Solzhenitsyn delivered a sharp and stunning rebuke to the modern West, repudiating its liberalism, materialism, and supremacism.

    “There is this belief,” Solzhenitsyn said, “that all those other worlds are only being temporarily prevented by wicked governments or by heavy crises or by their own barbarity or incomprehension from taking the way of Western pluralistic democracy and from adopting the Western way of life. Countries are judged on the merit of their progress in this direction. However, it is a conception which developed out of Western incomprehension of the essence of other worlds, out of the mistake of measuring them all with a Western yardstick. The real picture of our planet’s development is quite different.”

    He went on to describe the mentality which led the Western elites to adopt multiculturalism and pluralism, while they simultaneously lacked the courage to defend their Western culture or to challenge Communist governments which did not have the support of the peoples they governed. Solzhenitsyn described this lack of courage as “the most striking feature which an outside observer notices in the West in our days”.

    “The Western world has lost its civil courage, both as a whole and separately, in each country, each government, each political party and of course in the United Nations. Such a decline in courage is particularly noticeable among the ruling groups and the intellectual elite, causing an impression of loss of courage by the entire society. Of course there are many courageous individuals but they have no determining influence on public life. Political and intellectual bureaucrats show depression, passivity and perplexity in their actions and in their statements and even more so in theoretical reflections to explain how realistic, reasonable as well as intellectually and even morally warranted it is to base state policies on weakness and cowardice. And decline in courage is ironically emphasized by occasional explosions of anger and inflexibility on the part of the same bureaucrats when dealing with weak governments and weak countries, not supported by anyone, or with currents which cannot offer any resistance. But they get tongue-tied and paralyzed when they deal with powerful governments and threatening forces, with aggressors and international terrorists. Should one point out that from ancient times decline in courage has been considered the beginning of the end?”

    Solzhenitsyn went on to condemn the materialism of Western culture, fostered by the welfare state. He argued that the extreme safety and prosperity of the Western world caused Western people to be unwilling and reluctant to defend the most essential and important values that their culture and tradition were based upon, for fear of relinquishing the “physical splendour” they enjoy “to an extent their fathers and grandfathers could not even dream about”.

    “Even biology knows that habitual extreme safety and well-being are not advantageous for a living organism. Today, well-being in the life of Western society has begun to reveal its pernicious mask.”

    full article here http://cusack.norumbega.co.uk/2008/08/03/alexan

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    REALLY appreciate your warning, I mean it!
    Normally I am totally ignorant of risk management, but after such an argumentative post, I will need to change my “no rules” credo and may be even put stops in place – all thanks to you.
    Well done – let me know what Yahoo board you call home – I might need guidance once in a while.
    Or just , PLEASE, shoot me an email when you have next “kodak moment”

  • peder1001

    whats your opinion on etrade?

  • Joe8888

    $VIX Monthly ,,Banging out a Bottom…?

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

    .

  • amokta

    thanks, lets see if i get it together before the markets turn, if they turn, this time. My mistakes so far – buying while the market was falling in sept 08-feb 09, then not piling into stocks at march lows, then bailing out too early in late june, just before markets had a major surge up. Still, up 20% overall on my capital (but could have been 500-1000% up had i picked the right stocks & timing)

  • Bicep

    A friend just showed me the latest comments from Micheal Murphy, the technology newsletter guy. He is a “perma-bull”, I know, but he seems to think that we are set to blast off to new highs based on the data from ECRI (economic cycles research institute http://www.businesscycle.com/ ). I have a bearish bias admittedly, but this guy is either smoking something or I completely ignored a lot of data!!

    Murphy – “It is very unusual to have five straight days of almost no net change in the S&P 500, when a consolidation with a retest of the prior breakout level was due. But after last Friday's dramatic upthrust, that is what we got this week. Yesterday there was an early spike to a new high for this recovery rally since March 6, and this looks like the start of another upside surge. Consolidation patterns often have three distinct downward thrusts, followed by the breakout move. We've now seen three such drops on the 150-minute chart, although none was very large due to the amount of cash on the sidelines trying to get on board this moving target. With the daily trend already started and the 150-minute trend about to kick off as the fractal dimension falls under 55, the next breakout should come early next week. Unless there is very unexpected, very bad news over the weekend, Monday is the most likely day for a blast-off.
    The economic recovery remains strong. Although Friday's Weekly Leading Index from the Economic Cycles Research Institute dipped slightly from the prior week, the year-over-year change hit +19.6%. That is a 38-year high; growth has not been higher since May 1971.

    He keeps referring to the 150 minute chart. I'm not that experienced with hard-core TA but the TOS platform and others has no such chart! This sounds like fantasy and giberish but before I totally discount it I thought I'd get some feedback!

    Thoughts and comments …………?

  • spudthorpe

    A large portion of the ECRI leading indicators calculation is based on stock market movement, and on consumer confidence numbers, which in turn are heavily influenced by stock market movement. I don't have the breakdown in front of me, but in the last data I saw (a few weeks ago) nearly all the increase in the leading indicators came from these two factors. In effect, they're saying that the stock market should go up because the stock market has been going up.

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    Fujisan,
    who's gonna win elections?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    May be I have to hide that I am from Russia – what do you think?
    (hinting – none likes wise guys)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    never used 150min chart, but just did it and I do like correctness of the signals
    http://screencast.com/t/gqbeFuBq5

  • ultrabear

    Fuj, thanks for this bit of wisdom. Have just applied pivots to Friday's ES tape – a minor revelation.

    I think you may be right about us having a few more days to the top too – the Elliott count could be complete at Friday's open, aye, but my daily TRIN oscillator is still pointing up'ards as of now although it's looking a bit kinkier at smaller timescales. Also, I thought on the way up there on Thursday that I was seeing some extended fifth waves at very minor degree on the 1 min chart, which is *possibly* a portent, although it is very subjective at that scale, as a lot of folks including you guys point out, so it could be nowt.

    We'll see what happens Monday at the open, but it's looking possible that Friday from the open was a-b to correct the previous day's wave 1 and that we get a c wave down to complete a zig-zag, possibly to the 76.4% retracement around 1020 and then a 3-4-5 to your 1045 target.

    I am loaded up to the gunwhales with March puts so should be good to go whatever happens.

    Enjoy your Saturday night!

  • rhae

    Good chart as usual, Think I will just leave it up to my horse shoes and hand grenades chart…. SPX daily, below. I could not get enough history in my chart platform to run a reliable 150m chart.

  • molecool

    “In effect, they're saying that the stock market should go up because the stock market has been going up.”

    Exactly – you nailed it on the head – I was just about to respond with a similar comment.

    1+

  • rhae

    no argument there… I start thinking and that becomes dangerous…. I think our normal trading cycles are getting skewed do to manipulation…
    Could the Fed be doing these POMO's and what else at this time because they know it's light volume season? They direct trading desks to buy those beat'en up financial crooked companies. So that is where most of the money goes. AIG, C, BAC, etc. (who in their right mind would by those POS's.)… I never learn ,crime pays…

    What type of stunt they will try next?… normal TA and they throw us another curve ball….

  • Osso

    ECRI is very good.

  • pierre66

    Ana Mandara in NhaTrang is an unreal spot……

    And thx for the PP lesson!

  • vidosole

    Hi David,
    you saw the 1020 area as a great short opportunity back in June. what is your updated opinion now?

  • humble1 ™

    james:

    there is always more than one important date on the radar. and ANY moon is worth considering.

    as to so called “Phi dates” i compute them on my own and have done so for a couple of decades.

    the .382 extension of 10/11/07 -> 3/6/09 is 9/18/09. that is a direct hit on a fascinating NEW moon which is also conjunct saturn and mercury (within a few degrees). 9/6 and 9/18: one or both of those dates could be real important in sep, imho.

  • humble1 ™

    p.s. there is a bradley window on the date(s) you mention so that opex week
    should be “interesting”.

  • Iguanadon

    Anybody else keeping a casual eye on H1N1 virus? After the media went way overboard with the coverage last year they seem to be downplaying it. Below is an article buried down on MSNBC website. I also saw in a Time magazine article the following:

    “On Monday the White House released a report from a group of presidential advisers that included a scenario where anywhere from 30 percent to half of the population could catch what doctors call the “2009 H1N1″ flu, and death possibilities ranged from 30,000 to 90,000. In a regular flu season, up to 20 percent of the population is infected and 36,000 die.”

    Now, if I was a skeptical about gov't figures I'd say that they understimate everything including deficits, unemployment and the severity of subprime mortgages, but what do I know…

    With school starting across the US, this could become a serious issue. This new form of the virus goes straight to the lungs of young people.

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32598271/ns/health-

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I am staying home on Saturday night like I have no life (in a way – trading IS my life) and trying to answer the very same question you are asking.
    Yesterday (or the day before) I posted:
    “we yet have to post a higher daily close on NDX sometimes by the middle of the next week
    I could not force myself to look at the charts today, but I will do a detailed post on all counts of DeMark indicators weekly and daily, but in few words it might be summed up right now – next week (or at most the week after that) will mark the end of this leg up and, may be, the end of “make believe” rally.
    It looks like different methods (Fuji's, Mole's etc) are all pointing to the same point in time.
    dontblong !”

    Just like in Fuji's analysis, my analysis place more priority on TIME (with attempts to figure out what “price” might be by that TIME)

    It is very preliminary (I still have to go through multiple symbols/timeframes), but I think that I positioned quite properly right now (Oct/Dec09 ITM puts and …just in case Mar/Jun2010 OTM puts, “just in case” because I am not quite sure that we saw the end of bull run, I think we yet have to see the “final leg” of retail investors buying shares from institutions which they have accumulated from July 13th (Yes, not July 8th, because July 13th was low of W2 on daily – that is when really convinced buying started by institutions).
    “Number wise” – I think for upcoming correction SPX 1025-1045 is as good of short entry level as it gets (if I am correct and correction in fact WILL happen – then I expect 980 to be hit within 13-15 trading days from the highest point ( which I expect to happen by the middle of next week) and if 980 will not hold – 940 is next.
    Now I have to read what I just wrote and ask myself that question: “What the hell am I talking about?”
    P.S. I am not quite in Mole's and Pretcher's camp of “this is as high as it gets”, but, again – correction is around the corner. As for best short plays beside SPY puts – I think anything that depends on weaker dollar would be the best short – tech, commodities, multinational, mining equipment – I expect dollar to go up strongly short term. (as a “nonsense” long commodity play on stronger dollar – I think natural gas might just go up)
    Jeezz – I think I might just post what I typed as my “Sunday's post” on my site :)
    BTW – You might want to bookmark the page on my site with D-Wave analysis http://trading-to-win.com/Roadmaps.aspx

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Like Fujisan said, ES doesn't follow its pivots as closely as other stock index products. ES tends to be dominated more by pure futures traders thanks to its big brother SP, introduced 15+ years before the others. Futures traders wrote/read different books and focus on standard deviations of traded-at-volume to set intraweek levels. Pivot analysis is still in the ballpark on ES just not as precise.

    (But Fuji is so smart tho! It never occured to me to consider pivots on a stock oriented index like NQ to trigger trades on ES. Another thing in my queue to backtest.)

    About the EW count: yes it looks like Friday started (another) zigzag. The c wave down would have to take out ES 1022. But in a zigzag the c is often on the order of the a, which would target the 1015 level again. A good part of c down could play out Sunday night with a price rejection during the day Monday to point the tape back up.

    EW here is tough because sideways corrective combinations can just keep stringing out. Somewhere in this tangled mess of flats and zigzags will come the high. Usually a triangle points to the exit and then we'll impulse out of it – in a big way. ;)

  • innatedc

    Trust me Iggy….those stats are way overestimated…being in the field with research credentials I can tell you with credibility that H1N1 is more propaganda filled with lies, damn lies and statistics….the 36,000 number has been bantered around for years for all the vaccine campaigns but has never been verified.

  • Iguanadon

    Thanks inna, I hope you're right.

  • vidosole

    Thanks David, appreciate your opinion and just visited your site. Interesting place, think will be regular visitor there.

  • innatedc

    Just remember your body is the world's perfect drugstore…makes them in perfect amounts, with perfect dosages and perfect timing- just don't get in its way…the holy triangle of health is eat well, move well, think well. Do those three and you'll be just fine.
    BTW several surveys show up to 50% of doctors won't vaccinate themselves so what do they know that we don't.

  • rhae

    Many here are Bearish Ghouls, encluding me… Several posts here, have related to insider selling. Trim Tabs has always been good at nailing some of the good stuff .They were very popular during the tech bubble. Kinda spendy, so they are used a lot by institutions, with your money of course. I do not hear much about them. But still very viable…

    THE END IS NEAR! :-)

    http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayReleaseConten

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yes I was just about to say that the ECRI is more sentiment than substance when compared to other leading economic indexes.

    Since stock prices are the manifestation of sentiment, you have to wonder how much of the ECRI is already discounted in stock prices. My guess is all of it – and then some.

  • Iguanadon

    I like the way you think. I've been very fortunate in that I rarely get sick. A cold every 3 or 4 years. I'm a firm believer in letting your body take care of itself. But having what I call a strong immune system, it's easy for me to say that. I do typically get the flu shot every year simply because I travel 40+ weeks a year as a software consultant. I had no plans on getting the H1N1 vaccine due to the rush they've put on getting it together and I was hesitant.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just don't bring too many guests with you – that is the best kept secret out there :)
    (Thank you for compliment)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    You have to remind me to change templates – this chart is MESSY!
    Forgot who is your quote provider – but I am able to pull at least 500 days intraday data from AMTD feed

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    last time I paid any attention to insiders' trading was …yeah – long time ago?
    Back in 2006 I wrote post on HLX CEO trades, it was syndicated in Reuters (they stopped posting my musings after I became increasingly irritated with Gobelment actions)
    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2006/12/heli

    Thou I liked the fact that when BaBoon Picklens was shouting “nat gas to $50″, his wife was quietly selling CLNE shares

  • TheMacroEconomist

    If it's politically unacceptable right now to ask for yet another financial services bailout package, well there are other ways to engineer a capital infusion.

    This Financial Times article points out another obvious incentive:

    “The US authorities received more than 7bn shares in Citi at $3.25 apiece, after converting $25bn of preferred stock into common equity at the end of last month. Since then, Citi’s shares have rallied and closed [a week ago] Friday at $4.70, increasing the value of the government’s stake by $11bn.”

  • Joe8888

    Update on the VIX Weekly….

    .

  • Joe8888

    Update to the $XBD Monthly Chart..
    .

  • fa_q

    That's EXACTLY what I'm looking for. I'm looking for 1015 early on Monday – whether it be a gap down Sunday (which would be sick to suck in more bears) or a sell on the open. The rest of the week looks mildly bullish to me as a holiday week. Friday will be the interesting day in my opinion because the week after Labor Day could be bearish – some people may jump the gun on Friday.

  • Offtimer

    Many great postings from knowledeable people at this site in last couple days. Simple exclamations for market direction are votes for that affinity and may not need further explanation. Approval of some opinions by pushing the like button get the nod for articulation and presentation in my minds eye and may not need further elaboration. I must say the Why entices me to expound and give reason to my market madness and now I see sanity in an insane TA of late. I will post a chart in March/April 2010 post factum to acclaim the victory of all rats. GL

  • rhae

    I use QT with Ameritrade streamer which only gives me 19 Days intraday. Unless I am overlooking something. I could probably change the feed. But probably won't, it has been very reliable. And I can switch servers if one konks out.

  • Offtimer

    If this train is making all these stops for investors to get on I think we should abide or suffer the demise of our cash otherwise. If all these garbage stocks are worth billions to the government, it is about time we raise the price of legitimate companies 10X to keep things on an equal footing. On Monday everybody should raise their ask price and don't sell til the market accommodates you.

  • rhae

    Amen, A*Hole idiots in Washington, have stacked the deck against them.
    They are really trying, Just look at junk bonds. If defaults rise…. it won't be good.

    Can't borrow at cheap rates that government provides for the crooks, so have to borrow honest money from the Pawn Shop…. Not saying rates are horrible, just not at 1/4 percent

  • wilsrjr

    So I'm pouring over charts and reading articles today, and stumble upon this article http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swanson……. Bullish writer (Swanson), believes we go higher from here.

    But the charts caught my attention. I've heard it said a million times, “history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.”

    The rally started in April 2003 around 870ish (charts in article above). Two months later in June, 1018ish proved to be strong resistance. It took two months and one week to breakout from 1018.

    Fast forward now to July 2009 (chart below). The rally started around 870ish. It took one month to hit 1018. It took two weeks to breakout from 1018. It looks like the current rally is in a rush, taking half the time as the 2003 rally.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=DAILY&b

    Check out the price action in Sept. 2003. It looks almost identical to where we are today. Flame away rats!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    why don't you download NinjaTrader
    http://www.ninjatrader.com/webnew/download_down
    it is free to use for charting (only if you decide to trade using it – then you have to pay license fees)
    You can feed it with AMTD feed for free
    that is what I have…
    (QT has data lock as per AMTD agreement – I spoke to Medved a while back, only pulls 20 days, I trade with QT, but stopped using charting long time ago)
    with ninja – for historical charting you can even use yahoo data feed
    try it – you will not regret time spent for learning it – feel free to ask questions on NT any time

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    never used it
    seriously – with amtd acquisition of TOS – you have best of all worlds

  • http://forkoholic.spaces.live.com/ Forkoholic

    you should, thats the only wise decision you can continuously make

  • aviat72

    David,

    Could tell me a bit more about the AMTD feed (I presume this is Ameritrade)? How does it synch in with NT?

    I am looking for more accurate tape data then what IB provides in terms of bid-ask volume. Have heard that eSignal conks out at times of high market volatility (where IB truly shines).

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yes, ameritrade
    stocks only + 3 major indexes
    NT – just enter amtd password – you done.
    reliability – not the best in the world, but it works when TOS feed choking
    what else would u like to know?
    I think most of brokers getting their data from comstock – data integrity stinks big time indeed – every now and then I feel an urge to go back to bloomberg terminal – they really cleansing data well (but $2K per month can be spent on something else indeed)

  • Macrawn

    I was looking at that same vix chart yesterday. A good hedge might be to go long the vix. There are a boatload of Oct 37.5 calls out there.

  • tg4ta

    Tough to say.

    2003 – 2007 was driven by rises in corporate earnings driven by consumer debt.

    2009-2010: No more money to borrow. Consumer is leveraged to the hilt. Will companies report better year over year earnings from this point forward, or will it be bumpy – hence a bumpy market?

    What I see is that companies that can gain from govt intervention will win out in this next bubble. That is the place to put your money.

  • tg4ta

    Japanese opposition party wins in landslide.

    Market rally?

  • OldManRiver

    The Japanese Democratic Party had as a campaign platform a commitment to reduce Japan's holdings of US Treasury securities. We'll see in short order whether it was mere rhetoric or a real change in fiscal management. If China and the other BRICs, who have all publicly voiced their opposition to the role of the USD as the global reserve currency (and held in those same Treasuries), see Japan as a major seller, and then join in a run for the exits, we may soon see the mother of all currency crises. Unfortunately, a USD collapse may be exactly what Ben Bernanke wants to solve the country's national debt crisis.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yet another hint – please, google the difference between being “wise” and “smart” (I'd think you would know it by now) and while you on that – figure out what “strike #3″ is and how many strikes it takes to outstay your welcome in the place where you “continuously” offending people (while you might think that you've been “humorous”) and pumping your web site without contributing to the cause – you really cannot go around doing so indefinitely.

    I am really trying to carry it across – my brains are exploding from efforts – I am Dumb Trader after all.

  • OldManRiver

    The H1N1 vaccine that is to be provided to the public on October 15 includes an ingredient to allow the use of a lower dose to accomplish the antigen's intended efficacy. This ingredient, however, has never been approved by the FDA and will itself undergo clinical trials starting only on September 15. My view is that the risk of getting a serious illness from the “cure” is greater than the flu itself; who has ever benefited from being the guinea pig?

  • innatedc

    I'm in complete agreement Old Man….key words- “intended efficacy”…don't get me started on this whole vaccine issue cause then I will just throw out mountains of clinical research and studies (vaccine research and immunology is one of my areas of expertise) and this blog will cease to be a trading blog. Needless to say, I echo your sentiments precisely…..thanks for sharing.

  • ropey

    i fondly refer to etrade as 'eturd' – it really is in the stoneage compared with TOS. I've never used AMTD.

  • C's & 3's

    A stock market collapse would drive dollars into the treasury market too.

  • bevets

    Is that where the photo at top was taken?

  • grednfer

    Before the week gets going and maybe we'll come down….maybe not, I wanted to point out something I saw on the 1 year SPX chart. Last Oct 2008 the market came down pretty fast from 1150 to 1000….I think it took 4 days, so there is not a lot of resistance between 1015 and 1100.

    The current trading channel is has a positive slope, as shown by moles and fujisan's charts…..this part puzzles me….show bullish charts….buy puts?

    For option sellers you can still get a $1. for a spy Sept 980p/1080c condor……thats not bad…….19 days?

  • ropey

    ETurd is really so backwards these days, takes me 2 weeks to sell stock in my stockplan and wire funds back into my own bank…The customer service guys very rarely have a clue aswell – feels like the mcdonalds of brokerages and glad i don't do my proper trading through them anymore.

  • ropey

    Yep nice range on the spys – i'm with you on that, of course then can move the market in a heartbeat which is why the premium is still quite rich. 50 points can be done in 1-2 days with some good news. Definitely looks like this up leg then sideways consolidation is basing for another move to 105-106 very shortly – how the market reacts to the gap, dont know, still think we're going to be 108 before we decide to pullback a little but i am selling spreads on this next move up. The only thing that'll hold it back is the volume, look at the vol o those downmoves, it dwarfs what we're seeing on the upmoves so may take a while to churn through..

  • Teich50

    I am interested in opening an account with TOS. Would I be able to use NinjaTrader right away as the AMTD data feed will be available for free?

    Thanks a lot, DDT.

  • St Deluise

    will they ever step in to save the dollar or is the complete and total destruction of the USD really their goal here? depressing..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not sure if you open (and if you still can) account with TOS – you'll be able to use AMTD goodies.
    I think the “safest bet” to open AMTD margin account – apply for options trading – get TOS package (thou, as I understand without futures/forex – if those are important to you – I'd open TOS account first)
    You need to call AMTD (during regular hours – on weekend they have real lame staffers) and find out
    I just had both accounts for a long time, so I am not aware of technicalities.
    Funnily enough – I know few people who did what I recommended (open AMTD cash account with $500, withdraw $499 next day) and have all AMTD goodies for free :)

  • bergs

    Fujisan

    As always appreciate your sharing. Excellent..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    few new state of the art charts at my secret site

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    lit of data feeds into NT
    http://screencast.com/t/UpBzyCRpvd

    Also, I think, Mole might be able to get some discount on IQFeed for NT (not sure if I understood him correctly)

  • Bear Claw

    Market rally because of Japan? Not so fast…
    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/200

  • Iguanadon

    David, I posted a couple of comments on your blog. One is a question about the date of the 2nd chart. I think you mislabeled a couple of them. I always look forward to your posts.

  • Bear Claw

    This ought tomake the martket rally higher…(said with a sarcastic tone)…thre more banks closed Friday.

    Some statistics to ponder here: First, the month of August should close out with 15 banks and their 589 bank branches reorganized away – unless the FDIC has another 'shoe to drop' still this weekend. This compares with only 34 branches and three banks a year ago.
    On a branch basis, that means 3,628 branches have been reorganized from last July 11th, when IndyMac started the ball rolling with the latest round of closures.

  • ACJ

    yeah but there are less closing than expected LOLZ

  • biffermas

    Here's an August 28th inteview with Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs, if you haven't seen it. It's nice to see he is more bearish than ever.

    http://capitalobserver.blogspot.com/2009/08/bid

  • Tronacate

    Unbridled narcissism leads down a path of destruction…….has throughout the ages.

  • tranchefoot

    Hey Fuji! Great post. I would like to add that I've been having fun watching Woodies daily and weekly pivots on the indexes as well. Have seen many reversals to the tick at Woodies pivots. Mr Wood also had a nice seminar with TOS.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock
  • Bullturnedbear

    Who do you use for trading?

  • Teich50

    Didn't you suggest shorting INTC when it was below $19.50?

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet
  • jamesmarkii
  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I believe ztock suggested shorting INTC WHEN it WILL be 21+ at a time when it was 19.50
    21 just happened too fast :)

  • ropey
  • ropey

    TOS (ThinkorSwim)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    haven't I had comments disabled so none can criticize me? :)

    Iggi – I will look at your comments, but keep in mind – I am NOT using EW notations/methodology, I am using simplified/mechanical DeMark D-Wave version.

  • Iguanadon

    Yep, no problem, I know it's not EW. It's the dates on your second chart that don't make sense… Oct 10, Oct 6, Oct 20 in that order. I have a feeling maybe Oct 10, Nov 6 and Nov 20?

  • steveo77

    If you MUST go long. Cash is a position too.

  • ropey

    Forgot how much fun finviz.com is, great research site.

    http://finviz.com/map3d.ashx

  • annamall

    Hey Guys
    One last day in August and 1 week left to summer and Good Riddance! Maybe like Keirsten I will take next summer off, and meet up for an Evil Angel's Summit ;-)
    I really expect we see a blow off (or in my case UP) top, so this tape will reach it's breaking point and dive dive dive (at least for a change jeezz)!!!

    I am still adding puts as we go. Short the EUR/USD for at least tonight! :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    got it – you were correct – those “Oct6 etc last 2 boxes dates were out of my a… – I don't know what was I smoking (probably Dunhill) and what glasses was I wearing :)
    I had to yank that post – windows live writer I am using post new post when I do edit (what else can be expected from Microsoft product)

    THANKS A LOT for pointing that out – updated “chart” is up

  • jamesmarkii

    lmfao…yup

  • fa_q

    Every summer I say I'm not going to trade during the summer and yet I still get sucked in from time to time. I'm personally not looking for a blow off top. I'm short 1/4 at 1026 and I will exit somewhere between 1020-1015. Last night I said I expected 1015, probably not going to wait for that. Looking for a light move up on preholiday volume after that. Maybe we get to 1040, who knows, it won't be a blowoff, IMO.

    As I said late last night, Friday will be the interesting day. Post Labor Day is often bearish and we'll see if they get a jump on in Friday.

    One caveat, the scenario I have just laid out is what happened last pre-Labor Day week. Down Monaday and Friday, up Tues/Wed/Thurs. That's the only thing that bothers me, it's rarely that easy.

  • Bankster

    Is this quarter the 1/4 @ 1026 from last week for the purpose of the trading log (and you are still flat)?

  • annamall

    Next summer we can meet @ Clearwater beach :)
    No one know exactly how this will play out, but am looking for more than 1026 for sure.

    Futs hopefully keep pushing down all night.

    I am so sore from 2 days of working out, and my gluts are on fire! LOL

  • fa_q

    Yeah that's from last week. Personally I shorted a full lot at 1029 going into the close, just covered half at 1025 and will cover the other half at the numbers I mentioned. But I wasn't able to post on Friday so that's pretty worthless – so I'll go with the 1026 1/4 for the purposes of this log. I've done well enough with my published plays, I don't need to start trying to fudge numbers :)

    However, I will be flat most of the this week if we bounce. As the sign in my avatar reads: The End is Near. I don't feel like front running any BS light-volume pumps into the holiday. 975 is around the corner. Plenty of time.

  • amokta

    “Stocks Bull Market 50% Advance Signals September Opportunity for Deluded Bears” !
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13083.html
    for info. Bank holiday here in UK – but will try to do some us stock trading if i can.

  • fa_q

    Yeah hanging out with you at a beach should do wonders for my self-image :) I was a D1 athlete many, many Coors' Lights ago… TPC Tampa and Mugs N Jugs is more my style (for the record, I was BLOWN away that there was a place called Mugs N Jugs…hilarious!)

    One caveat to this week, outside of the low volume nonsense we may see, is the topping pattern and doji's that Fuji has been talking about. Throw that in with a lot of support in the mid 101's for SPY and I would be shocked to see a big down draft this week. I'm personally not getting greedy. And if anyone has front months, a couple more dojis thrown in with a 3 day weekend will destroy your theta.

    Just my 2 cents.

  • DeBauche

    What are the strikes on the March/June S&P 500 Puts that Mole has discussed?

  • jamesmarkii

    65's i think

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Var, you guys are getting better in Japanese!

  • Fujisan

    It looks like you are trying to create inverted diagonal, but I normally don’t take negative theta positions. Do you have any particular reasons to take this position instead of a traditional vertical spread?

  • Fujisan

    Thanks for your insight, Dan. I will keep it in mind (but I thought that the whole point of Person’s pivots is the filtering function so that we don’t need to do it manually??)

  • Fujisan

    Isn’t that beautiful?

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Looks like ES did break 1025 but couldn't make even make it to 1023 before bouncing back above 1025. (Same head fake that I stopped out on Friday.) And now the tape is jumping probably on the strong showing of the Nikkei.

    Historically this is a positive week, like you said, no need to fight it.;)

  • Fujisan

    That’s nice to know. Thanks!

    I would be looking into Sep S1 and see if it holds. In the mean time, it looks like we still have some downside to be filled.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Notice that owners and creditors of failing small and midsize banks tend to get wiped out. Whereas owners and creditors of failing megabanks get bailed out – with some parabolic August stock price rises tacked on to boot.

  • steveo77

    We are at an inflection point.

    This is probably my best work ever in charting. And what better subject to chart, than charts themselves. Comments appreciated. If anyone has way too much time on their hands, finds this chart approach interesting, and wants to get more historical data so that a deeper look into history, let me know and I will share the secrets of charting analysis of charts.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/one-cha

  • rhae

    Mike Swanson oks, Runs site out of North Carolina , South Carolina, someplace down there.
    Have known him for years… Definitely a higher high / lower low guy. Knows how to stay with the trend… Might have moved? , he would get along well in England with his Southern Drawl.

  • annamall

    Mugs & Jugs oh no!!! yikes..

    I don't buy near term options, I make sure I have enought Theta not to go there.
    No Sept. for me..:-)
    This week should be a really light volume, but that may mean some more whipwsaw.

  • fa_q

    Nice calm futes today. The tell for me was on Friday – RUT down 0.67%.

    When this market breaks down you're going to want to be one of the following, based on preference:
    1) Short IWM for the conservative
    2) TWM for the double
    3) Short TF for the future players
    4) Puts on IWM for the options players

    The RUT will be the place to short.

  • http://www.blenderking.com Dan Robbins

    Try this for an experiment. Pull up a daily chart for SPY for the past year. Plot Person’s Pivots (monthly timeframe with the filter on). Now plot them again (monthly, filter off, and change the colors). Note that the filtered pivots are always R2 and S1, even in the decline of Fall 2008, the filtered pivots are showing R2 and S1 – it should be R1 and S2 where the monthly pivot was declining. Now do it for SH. Note that the filtered pivots are always R1 and S2! It seems the last available data point (i.e August data) is being used to determine to use the Bullish or Bearish filtered pivots!

    If you look carefully at the John Person’s thinkorswim video chat from August 2008, you’ll realize he’s using a customized study on his charts and it works correctly. Things that make you say “hmmm”.

    Nonetheless, the Person’s methodology is very logical. It’s just the TOS implementation that’s off.

    Here’s something I’ve been researching: Take the concept of Person’s COMAS from his book (multiple pivot point moving averages). I’m finding a lot of value in combining the following: A. 3 period pivot point moving average AND 3 period pivot point moving average with displace set to -1. B. Heikin Ashi Candles. When the 2 align in the same direction, especially at the pivots, you have great confirmation of the trend change.

    The pivot point moving averages can be set on the chart: SMA, price: H+L+C/3, period 3.

    Enjoy!

  • innatedc

    I agree Faq….I'm looking to load up on IWM puts the first opportunity I get……

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, tranche, what's the difference of Woodie's pivots?

  • Fujisan

    Hmmmm, interesting…. Yeah, I just tried that.

    Which software are you using? I remember you mentioned that you are a member of Person’s trading room…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    reason being – a lot of regional smaller financials and REIT components
    IYR looks like very nice short right now as wellm(Just posted D-Wave chart)

  • Fujisan

    How do you know that…? Of course, you may be flying around every now and then….

  • Fujisan

    Yeah, speaking of the party dominated the parliament for over 6 decades ever since the WWII…

  • http://www.blenderking.com Dan Robbins

    I’m using thinkorswim. I’m not a member of his trading room though. If you’d like, send me an email at danr at danrobbins . com and I’ll forward an email with some more info about the plotting problem. (it’ll be in morning though, shutting the lid of the laptop for bedtime now!)

  • fa_q

    B-I-N-G-O

    That's one smart comrade right there.

    Short IYR and KRE is going to be like winning the lotto. When, and I emphasize WHEN…the market breaks down.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    ES and NQ making new lows tonight. I guess Japans news is fizzling out.

  • de3600

    65 and 70

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    shhhhh…
    I am trying to mask my temporary sanity behind court jester's face – may be when perfect storm's looting starts – they will spare pobrecito loco

  • fa_q

    That was goddman funny! Coors Light out the nose sucks, but at least it's early and it's not the Chivas….

    Where are these charts you post?

  • Steve

    good trading Fujisan!

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    what strikes on IWM…seems to be some pretty low priced march oppies out there….was looking at them last week…

  • fa_q

    There was a comment below on this but it got buried. I'd like to take the contrary approach, if I may, to the suggestion Mole has on the March puts. It's my true belief that the best plan of attack are Nov puts now and June puts later. Let me explain….I believe 95 strike Nov's going now for 2.40ish are going to be the payday. I think we'll see 875/850 in Oct which make those 10 baggers plus whatever VIX does. If we go off into the abyss then even better.

    But, even last year in the darkest of all dark times, we rallied over the holidays – hell we got all the back to 950 at the first of the year. That's the problem, in my opinion (and my opinion only) that the March strikes may be tough. You're not going to get the bang for the buck on the decline in the fall as with the Nov's and the rally through Xmas will negate many of the gains.

    If you're looking for a long term play with money you are cool with losing if it all goes wrong, I would buy Nov 95s later this week. Then dump them some time in October. Then in late Dec buy June whatever's (who knows where we'll be) and play the next dump.

    The major caveat to that is that I'm not an options guy. So if I'm off on this, then please let me know. I would just hate to burn all that theta over the silly season to get to the same point in March that we were in Oct. But please, let this be a conversation starter because I'm curious to see what I'm missing….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    my secret site – just kick my nick with the cursor

  • innatedc

    The march strikes are quarterlys….I tend to avoid them…but I like either the Jan or Feb 40 strikes.

  • innatedc

    beautiful double top forming on IYR…..first level of support to breach is 37.31 area which corresponds to the 38 fib retracement from July 10 lows to Aug 7 highs…..

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    so in the jan's how low would you be looking….i am just curios what people are doing with OTM oppies and strategy….etc

  • innatedc

    Excellent insight…..got me thinking a bit here…..+1

  • innatedc

    I like the 40 strikes because its the 161 fib retrace from where we are now and just above the March lows just in case the market decides to get silly and stop there before resuming funny business.

  • ultrabear

    Slates bears as deluded and then pumps a freebie link to a Robert Prechter report

    /does not compute

  • kernelbleep

    Shanghai indexes down 4% , early on.

  • jacksoo

    anyone else here having problems with TOS – yet again!!!! aarrghh – bloody useless since Ameritrade took them over.

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    and jan vs march….i am thinking they drag bears in in sept/oct then rally to 1000 pin for yr end then the real drop happens in feb/march so thats my plan for when to add those march puts into place….

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Steve. I hope you had a good summer! (It's almost over here in Seattle).

  • Joe8888

    Article,,,

    Dismantle Bernanke's 'Happy Conspiracy' … now!

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dismantle-bern

  • LDanil

    It is a conservative way to get short, less expensively, and with limited risk and an inexpensive way to play the downside in index. My expectations that my on the money put will be profitable and I will collect the premium from 36 & 32 puts.

  • AS2009

    Woo @ Stocktock.com also has 1080 as his preferred ending point although 1044-1045 is the minimum needed before he believes the bullish move is over ….

  • rhae

    I think 3rd world countries, Venzooailia/China etc. have already started dumping US bonds, or at least not buying them. The bric countries… they settle mutual trading by trading bonds (i.o.u.) between each other…

  • pierre66

    I thought it looked familiar and then I checked the image tag –

    anamandararesortswimmingpool.jpg

    We were there last year, the place is totally cool. A bit sad relaxing in
    Vietnam though……

  • LDanil

    The strategy to sell out of the money options on top of buying in the money options in order to partially offset the negative theta, resulting in a lower rate of time decay.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    ES needs to take out 1022. Below that, then we're talking zigzag down. ;)

  • Fujisan

    It looks like your W2 scenario is working out quite nicely. I have a=c at 1014.25.

  • Fujisan

    That's how I felt when I went to visit Phuket in Thailand (that's as far as I could go).

    Resorts in Vietnam – sounds like the world has changed quite a bit.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Asia really taking it to the chin now
    ^SSEC Shanghai Composite 2,718.55 10:52PM ET Down 142.13 (4.97%)
    ^HSI Hang Seng 19,657.39 10:53PM ET Down 441.23 (2.20%)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    no problem here

  • Steve

    We never got the summer going here in Chicago, and the autumn is just around the corner, yikes!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    At least ES is moving in the right direction now, hehe.

  • Fujisan

    I hope you are looking at some kind of PL graph to help you out. If you compare a straight 40 put option to your strategy, I really don’t see much of the difference. What’s worse is that, once the front option expires worthless, you are left with back month options’ obligation to fullfill (therefore, you are force to buy into another front month options or buyback the back months). Either way, I woulnd’t take this strategy.

  • jacksoo

    thx DT – for a while i was haveing to reboot TOS app every few minutes as trades stopped, vol also disappeared off my charts.

  • de3600

    nope all is well as i watch futures drop :)

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Only 3 people from here, bothered to look at this PCP short chart
    http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/
    85% of my trades have been winning this month___

  • LDanil

    all options are the same month, I am looking for 40 to be in the money and 36 & 32 worthless. Thank you I will take a second look at this considering your inputs.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    this is what I do from time to tom
    delete all files from “USERGUI” directory

    disable java cache (do not cache on hard drive) – from control panel
    if u have 4 gig ram – disable hard drive cache (from “my computer”)
    check if you only have 1 (latest) java runtime installed
    set TOS “priority to “high” (in task manager) – unfortunately you will have to do it every time

    this is all for windows XP (Hope they will support it for a while – hate vista)

    Also, your network might be slow – that will cause quote stream to put too much strain on your PC

  • steveo77

    No prob here

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    don't you know – a lot of people just want to be heard (that is why shrinks are doing so well) :)
    and they never listen or remember what other people were saying (except for occasional butt kissing) :)

    I like a lot of your ideas – too bad I mostly trade futures and options on indexes

  • jacksoo

    Thx DT but I'm don't live on the dark side, I use a Mac. TOS & Prophet seem
    to have had problems with recent updates.

  • grednfer

    On the “put” bang for the buck……I've been selling TNA puts since it was 10 yes 10……its now 40. If this is the start of a nice down move (and not another bear trap)……Shorting the RUT will yield the most. It moves the most and made a 73% gain off the March lows.

    I like TF myself….but if you are not into futures, TNA puts….in the money….nearest month costs the least. Watch the RVX (VIX for RUT). Sustained (4-5 days) pricing over 31.45 means downtrend. Or…..ITM TZA calls should produce same result. Since TZA is only $14, the Oct 15 call is only $1.5 and should be ITM soon. If you like FREE calls, you could sell the 15 put to buy the 15 Call. There is a credit there now, but may not be in the morning.

    I think I just talked myself into to that combo. I have to check that one in the morning.

    Looking for a CLOSE of SPX under 1018 and sustained VIX over 26.16.

  • tranchefoot

    Woodies pivots include the opening price in the calculation. Not sure why
    that matters, but several times i've seen the market blow through person's
    and standard pivots only to turn to the tick on a woodies pivot.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Does anybody use these guys?
    I think this is a way to store links on the ethernet–no more saving bookmarks everytime you change computers
    http://www.folkd.com/page/features.html

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    WEEKEND SUMMARY:

    Will close out 5% long position in TSFG for a 50.6% profit (based on fri. close)
    but keep 5% short position via long etf TZA.
    Earlier this week closed CPF.
    Both TSFG and CPF were purchased on 7-15-09.

    johnny rotten leads a shorting tribal chant:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgcFbPrt1I8

  • rhae

    same as DT, I try and look at all charts, but can't always… I was out most of the day.
    I trade mostly ETF's so much of the time I pass on individual stocks.. Even when I do trade stocks I rarely trade out of my basket of selected stocks, the ones I know that I have traded for years… I just know how they trade..
    I trade several but mostly post SPY, It's the big Kahauna… and 90% probably trend or contra with with it…
    Keep it up Z, good to know you are making money……..

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Plus it's Sunday–When I post links on Monday – Thurs, the interests grows to 25 or 50 views

  • Teich50

    On zstock's site, it says “his make me think INTC will get to 19.85, where it’s a short, because…”.

  • rhae

    I think TZA starting to smell ok

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    short the Russell via December IWM puts (naked) and a Sept bear put spread, hedged with a small (like realllly small) Sept OTM call position, also IWM

    might have to look into the TNA puts though

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that is a downside of trading futures – Sunday night is a work day for me
    just closed 1/2 sh /nq @3075

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Fuji, what do you think about taking a long on EUR/JPY off the Sept monthly S1 pivot at 131 or so? looks like a fairly safe bet if it hit it

  • http://www.businessparadigm.com c2

    1) I have not seen any correlation between a lack of solar flares on the Sun, and the temps on Earth. Where is a link to this study?

  • http://www.businessparadigm.com c2

    What?

  • http://www.businessparadigm.com c2

    Wrong.

  • http://www.businessparadigm.com c2

    FAIL

  • grednfer

    Can you believe its fallen to 14…..I think the low was 13.3……
    The levels can clearly be seen. 15, 20, 25, 30…..etc.

  • http://www.businessparadigm.com c2

    lol

  • grednfer

    What is 3075? Is that your profit when you closed the trade?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Ok, then I guess it was me who said “short it closer to 22″ :)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    [16]30[.]75 – old habit of saving time when trading :)

  • Fujisan

    Well, at least you have this nice picture (that I posted) to look at….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Monday morning reading – commies perspective on today's America
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    The most potent weapon in the hand of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed.

    Stephen Biko

    “Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for life.” So the saying goes.

    But is it necessarily true?

    What if all the streams, lakes and rivers where this man sought to fish were on private property? What if they were so polluted that few fish could survive in them, and the ones that did were unfit for human consumption? What if these waterways were diverted (i.e. outsourced) to locations this man could not access? Clearly, under such scenarios, having knowledge about fishing would be useless.

    What if this man lived in a valley that contained ninety percent of his country’s population, but only ten percent of its fishable waters? What if the rest of the fishable waters were in parts of the country owned and occupied by the remaining ten percent of the population? Surely economic necessity would inspire our fisherman, and many of his neighbors, to migrate to this sparsely populated, resource rich region of his country.

    But there’s a problem. The “ten percenters” also control virtually all the media outlets in the country, and for twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week—on television, on the radio and in the newspaper—they “warn” the valley people about the dangers of migration. “This sparsely populated region,” they claim, “is not better, but worse, fraught with unseen perils that only those who have historically resided here can ever hope to survive.”

    So the valley people believe these media lies, and thus spend the rest of their lives constantly fighting amongst themselves over the few edible fish they catch, while living in constant fear that even those fish, and the waters they live in, might someday be taken away.

    Meanwhile the “ten percenters” lounge in their mansions, eat extravagant meals, and laugh at the valley people’s gullibility.

    Imagine this no more, because it is the reality of today’s America.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Full article here
    http://english.pravda.ru/print/opinion/columnis
    [finder's fee goes to zerohedge]

  • grednfer

    O cool……Im still sitting on my 1 sh/ym @ 79, it just made a new low……like to see a break of 40 soon [94]40….

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Wish Mole was around!
    He'd really get the irony of this event–
    if you go here
    http://slopeofhope.com/2009/08/final-dday.html#
    for some reason C&C and myself are on Tim Knights REACTION list—
    I didn't do anything to get there–I betcha, C&C is up to his old tricks.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Disqus has a new trick called Reactions I guess!

  • Fujisan

    Hi, v8, I don't trade EUR/JPY so I dont' know how closely this pair follows the pivots on a daily basis, but yes, it is getting close to S1 so I will watch it closely. Thanks for pointing this out. (and of course, I'm watching GBP/JPY and USD/JPY as well. It may be happening all at the same time).

  • Bankrupt

    covered nq shorts @ 1630

    I can't help myself, I really like round numbers ;)

  • steveo77

    Welcome back Fujisan, I hope you enjoyed Vegas….my good friend from Maui moved there years back, moved away, and moved back….he says Vegas is rocking and with awesome deals right now.

  • steveo77

    We are at an inflection point.

    This is probably my best work ever in charting. And what better subject to chart, than charts themselves. Comments appreciated. If anyone has way too much time on their hands, finds this chart approach interesting, and wants to get more historical data so that a deeper look into history, let me know and I will share the secrets of charting analysis of charts.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/08/one-cha

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Offtimer

    The world is redistributing wealth from the loungers to the workers, except the first group doesnt know it yet because they still think they are pulling all the strings. This new puppeteer will give everyone anguish and the lounger may be the last to know what hit him, because not all cycles are obvious when this new group makes the rules. All rats can swim.

  • GDII

    hi fujiko, i try to draw pivot since when i saw yr 4h chart on spx. why my pivot is not the same? do u use any special parameters? and when u say monthly pivot, what does that mean?

  • Fujisan

    Hi, GDII,

    The pivots would give you the different parameters depending upon the timeframe that you are using. As long as I know, there are at least 3~4 different pivots at TOS and I'm using Person's Pivots (not just Pivots).

    Also, if you go to the set up, you can pick daily, weekly, or monthly setup. If you don' t know how, you can call up the help desk. Hope this helps.

  • shamusd

    how do I contact fujisan? (email?)

  • http://trading.jr-print.net lakai

    NICE TRADE, I just got out of my gbp/jpy short for about 700 pips on 80 lots. I think it goes lower to be honest but possible it retraces first

  • http://www.tradeitdontdateit.com/ lakai

    NICE TRADE, I just got out of my gbp/jpy short for about 700 pips on 80 lots. I think it goes lower to be honest but possible it retraces first





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  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Knocking On Heaven’s Door (Again)
    2. Post FOMC Madness Update
    3. Back With A Vengeance!
    4. A rare but good long setup in equities
    5. This Market Sucks Update
    6. The Other Shoe Just Dropped
    7. The Long Con
    8. Sitting Pretty
    9. Sitting This One Out
    10. Decision Time




  4. yes we can!



    NinjaTrader
    Kinetick