Closing Bell: Paulson’s Message

Today’s selloff was nothing but a message by Hank Paulson to the House:

Visual representation of market.

Visual representation of market.

Pass the bill – or I’ll kill this puppy!! I’ll DO IT!!

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 2nd, 2008 at 6:17 pm and is filed under Intraday Update. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • JZT_CHIL
    What a cute pup! But if you do, don't you think this one will take revenge?:
    http://www.funny.co.uk/stuff/art_175-2709-Fluffy-the-Destroyer-of-Worlds.html
  • You FOUND MY DOG!!! :-)
  • JZT_CHIL
  • Ed
    but are not you a kind of puppy?
  • romeobravo
    It seems the whole world has noticed that IWM (RUT) just broke longer term support. It usually scares me when 10 different people/blogs are saying the exact same thing about the same issue. It usually means one more trick up it's sleeve before it breaks it for good.


  • Good thinking - only the paranoid survive.
  • yearningtolearn
    In anticipation of a big move, what do you guys think about buying DIA calls and selling IWM calls tomorrow at the open (strictly for a day trade)? IWM has broken a major support around 65 area and looks weaker than other indices. On the other hand, DIA is resting at the diagonal support line. So, I think DIA will outperform IWM in case we go up, and IWM will go down farther in case we go down. Since VIX is at a crazy level, I don’t want to play straddles/ strangles. What do you guys think?

    I just found this blog, and I am so glad that I found it. You assimilate great information here. I have to admit I am a newbie when it comes to option trading. I have been reading up on various derivative strategies, but I have a long way to go. I have been trading Index ETF options since last few weeks with marginal success. I often have been on the right side of the trade, but have been eaten alive by volatility blowing off my contingent stops. I set very tight stops (using Last Trade Price) as my account size is small and I don’t have cushion of large gains like many of you. I have gotten burned by many crazy prints that you see on Index ETFs. Is there any way to mitigate crazy print risk in such a highly volatile market by using different kind of contingent stops?
  • Way a time to pick to get into the game - LOL - this is probably the toughest market in the last 79 years. Kudos for having cohones :-)

    I wouldn't mess with selling naked calls - you could get ass-raped doing that. JUST DON"T DO IT - PLEASE. Long DIA calls might just work, but buy ITM (so you don't get killed by sinking IV if the trade goes your way) and keep your position to < 3% of your portfolio. Don't get greedy - bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
  • yearningtolearn
    Point taken. Like I mentioned, I am already a rape victim and should learn from it. ;-)
    BTW, how do you safeguard your contingent stops from the market-fuckery?
  • Don't use hard stops - use mental stops (e.g. alerts in TOS). You have to price in a lot more volatility, think long term - think weekly. The market moves 300+ points a day right now - we have to adjust. I closed out several days recently which then made a complete u-turn and would have booked major coin. But that doesn't mean that you keep taking losses either - price your loss into your 'unit' - and expect to lose when you get into a trade. So, if you buy let's say 3 options of X, then make sure that you get out when X goes against you that you lose less than your max loss for one unit (which should be between 1% - 3% of your portfolio). Let's say your unit size is 3% or $300.- (on a $30k account) - set your exit so that it doesn't exceed that. Don't make exceptions and buy cheaper (OTM) options if necessary.
  • yearningtolearn
    Thanks mole. I think I need to expand my time frame to weekly and try to smooth out daily noise. With my day job, I am not getting enough time to stay on top of my positions on a minute-by-minute basis.
  • HO
    Exactly my sentiments too! Fu*king Paulson.
  • Snowbird
  • YUP, know about that - prepare yourself for the big hedge fund meltdown. Just hope I can get in before it comes tumbling down.
  • Snowbird
    The meltdown is here, we witnessed it. This bailout crap and banning short sales is all cover for these big market players (hedge funds and otherss) to help them liquidate their positions while giving the public hope that maybe stocks will recover after the bailout.
  • I hope their evil plan works - at least this way I get to reload on a faux rally.

    Yes, I'm evil - but that's why you're here.
  • Snowbird
    That's exactly why I'm here. But I'm afraid they are more evil as they won't give us a chance to get even more short now as the panic longs will sell into every tiny bounce. I am taking bets now on Slope of the probabilty of a crash within a week, reply on slope with your best guess, just for fun :-).
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