Trades: CHRW, R, UNP, IIVI, CEL, ESE, IDC, HITT, NICE

So, the trannies ($TRAN) started to finally cave in, after being the most stubborn of all the Dow indexes - just like in 1929. A lot of the stocks in it are already shot to hell, but I some jewels for you:

CHRW

R

UNP

UNP

Now for some technology - there should be plenty to pick from:

IIVI

IIVI

CEL

CEL

ESE

ESE

IDC

IDC

HITT

HITT


This entry was posted on Thursday, October 2nd, 2008 at 7:14 pm and is filed under Trade. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • Insect Overlord
    I think that NICE chart has a beautiful looking H&S pattern. Mole, as always, thank you for posting these. I hope that my suggestions are not annoying...just tryin to add to the blog-discourse.
    BTW...I noticed that when you draw fibs on a 5-yr chart, this stock behaves very nicely with the retracements...at least in my opinion. The depth of the H&S puts a target at around $17.50. Low open interest though.

    http://screencast.com/t/iVfmlua7Dzw
  • Great chart - the downside potential on this one is NICE :-)
  • Insect Overlord
    Here's another that I've mentioned earlier and the more I look at it the more I like it: MHS. Fibonaccis drawn from 1/7 to 3/12 and on a 60d/60m chart it has behaved beautifully. If it can retrace back up to the 50% retracement it could make a beautiful entry...especially considering the 50% retracement is also a loose confluence of the 50-, 100-, and 200-SMA. Plus the bid/ask spread is only $0.30 and IV is still kinda low.

    http://screencast.com/t/MtYw0RVK
  • Don't like this one as much - looks a bit like a triple bottom to me...
  • Insect Overlord
    The intriguing thing about that observation that I was just considering was, couple that with how "well" MHS has held up when the market has been taking a collective dump. This thing may have strength we have yet to witness.
    I shall watch with a suspicious eye.
  • gagelle
    Thanks for the stocks Mr. molecool. I have to wait a bit on them because I'm in the process of transferring from another broker to TOS.
  • Herr Molecool for you, Gagelle.
  • gagelle
    Globex is down.
  • Insect Overlord
    Now it's up pretty handsomely. Not outrageous, but still pretty decent.

    http://www.cme.com/trading/dta/del/globex.html
  • Insect Overlord
    CHRW is the only one of these that I really like for options because the others have low average volume. On my chart it makes CHRW look like a no-so-perfect-but-distinguishable H&S, with molecool/Berks support as the rough neckline. If you have the bank to short the stocks, I think R and IIVI have the most potential. The bid/ask spread isn't too bad on CHRW ($0.40) and the IV hasn't been inflated to nuclear (pronounced NOO-kyoo-ler) levels. Yet.
  • You're watched too much of that Palin debate.
  • Hey friends, here my ideas:

    http://moontrader.wordpress.com

    I added one day to the 4-day time window, and I explained why.
  • C.C. Rider
    Berk, In response to your earlier question about the VIX/DOW point correlation, I was just throwing the Dow 7500 number out as a SWAG.But it got me to thinking if you could correlate the to a predictable point drop on the Dow to a P&F target for the Vix.In this case P&F onn the Vix is 88.

    Look at these two charts and print
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=3...
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=3&...


    An 8 point Vix move this week equates to a 660 point drop on the Dow.So one Vix point is equal to about 80 Dow points.A move from Vix 45 to Vix 88 would then equate to a Dow move of aprox 3500 points.With the Dow closing at 10500 today, that Vix target would be Dow 7000.This is food for thought.It wont happen all at once but my target is sometime by the end of December and the go long for a one half tetrace to 10000.

    If you take the INDU chart and turn it upside down, you can see a "double bottom" in July and Oct of 2007.You'll also notice that once the low of Oct. 2006 is breached, you have a target from that low to the peak of 14200 of 4000 points.This would imply a final target of Dow 6200!!!It just so happens there's a long term Fib line at 6140 dating back to October 1996 levels on the Dow.After 10100 gets breached here, next stop would be Dow 8900, virtually erasing all the gains from the last bull market dating to March 2003.
  • You're asking Berk only?
  • C.C. Rider
    Feel free!One more thing, if this is wave 3 to the fifth degree as I think it is, we could be looking at another Black Tuesday next week. I don't think this current final low happens until Oct. 14.
    A good round number would be Dow 9000.I was there for the '87 crash, were you still in diapers?LOL!!!!!!!!
  • CA
    check out the continued collapse in baltic shipping rates. This fuels my worry about deflation
  • Source? Someone else was mentioning this the other day... was that you?
  • Snowbird
    Here's one of many on BDI rates http://shipping.capitallink.com/.
  • Thanks sonny - looks like China is cranking up its steel production - interesting.
  • suchen
    looks "b-e-a-u-tiful"!!!!.....
  • Just added another one - having fun!
  • suchen
    mole, thanks for the ideas!!! i was already having fun, and am looking fwd to having more fun!
  • Guest
    Molecool, if you will, check out my comment from yesterday morning to Tim. I asked him to get on board with the rail shorts, BNI and UNP. He was already short CSX then by the end of the day he added UNP. We just got a huge down move today and will have to wait for another bounce to get back on board.
  • UNP might have more downside potential - especially if the market coils up in the fetal position in the coming days. Otherwise I only see CHRW and R having potential in that sector.
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