Magic Rulers

In my charting universe the most valuable charts are at the same time often the most simplest. Just give me a channel or a trendline and I’m happy. And I’m not alone – as Jeffrey Kennedy over at EWI puts it: How a Kid With a Ruler Can Make a Million.

Well, that’s exactly what I do on a daily basis (the drawing of lines part – not the making of millions) – I look at a symbol and the first thing I do is to connect the dots, and only then I might add a fib here and there. I’m pretty lukewarm on indicators – I use only a small selection of them – for me price is king.

You should try it – just make sure you have at least three touch points, otherwise your mind is probably dong some good ole’ fashion line fitting.

Today just so happens to offer a great example – pick any average you like but the OEX seems to sport the cleanest pattern. Is it a coincidence that we ran into a wall at this morning’s drop? Obviously not – this is one major support line we got here and the bears won’t get anywhere until they muster the energy to push the tape below it, after which it’ll serve us as resistance.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, September 30th, 2009 at 6:22 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.



  • itsgold

    Anyone notice a bear flag on the SPX Weekly?

    Check
    http://easycaptures.com/3779454239

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but by the same ruller rule, second touch is a charm (see line from 666 to begining of june low)

    a big drop is ahead

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    and that trendline is getting tested more and more often and bounces getting smaller each time

    I wish I believed market nonsense sayings like “there is no triple bottoms”

  • Rd99Hse1

    If we pop tomorrow and the continuation rally fails (with volume) like it did today, the results could be epic (-ly bearish).

    Until a sure line is crossed I'm playing it light. One long into tomorrow!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    interesting, Kenny got it from cobra

    no ruller needed, just use fingers on screen

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_goypolxEFd4/SsPRErzBf

  • http://partiallystapled.com/ gxti

    That channel from yesterday served me well, at least in convincing me not to sell. I held onto the puts until the bottom of today's lovely open, closed half and reopened at the top.

  • Scrillhog

    Today was quite the ride. Hope everyone banked some coin today as there were opportunities for all. Here was my road map for the day:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

    Chart is self explanatory.

    I have a few more charts I will post tonight – Fib map and Spiral dates…

  • springheel_jack

    Chart of the day for me is the SPX daily bear wedges:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

    If you look at the smaller bear wedge with channels in black, we bounced off the lower channel last Friday and bounced off it again today.

    The other chart worth a look is the symmetrical triangle we seem to be forming on the SPX Daily, which would normally be a bullish continuation pattern, and probably is exactly that:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack

  • springheel_jack

    Could be a bear flag. Definitely a bear wedge though.

  • Osso

    lower high, higher lows….and the end story will soon be known….

  • springheel_jack

    The rally is in the last gasps now Osso. The question is where we peak if we have not peaked already.

    Looks like a last spike up may be most likely. We shall see.

  • Osso

    Jack…..check Daneric if you havent already.

  • springheel_jack

    Thank Osso. I'll check it now. Been out all day & just got back.

    Trading from my iPhone which wasn't ideal. Should have made more money today.

  • springheel_jack

    Very interesting. Thanks Osso.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Looking at the FX market, we should see higher highs in short order….

    EUR/USD is heading back up after a brief reprieve/fakout of the breakdown. Hit the 20 day SMA and reversed.
    Hourly: http://screencast.com/t/eGsAhnGY2Xb9
    Daily: http://screencast.com/t/Eo3NpfpWf

    /DX chart confirms we have not seen the lows for the dollar yet
    Daily: http://screencast.com/t/2PYAUM65pf

    I am expecting a pretty decent day up tomorrow. I'll probably close the put position I have as a hedge in the morning tomorrow. As much as I hate it, I can't fight the trend and expect to make money. Good luck trading!

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks V8. Very useful.

  • lilme

    Doug Kass calls the top today:

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10605200/1/kass-

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • Mercury2009

    Kass called a top over a month ago

    http://www.thestreet.com/story/10590828/1/best-

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You are using a 12ema and what other EMA? Just curious…

    Thanks Scrill… Nice chart.

    Skål!

  • Osso

    Once this is disclosed……in October, then P3 starts:

    Fed Appeals Decision To Disclose Recipients Of Bailout Loans, Threatens With “Run By Depositors”

  • molecool

    “I suppose everyone and his brother is expecting a massive sell off tomorrow. And you know when everyone has already taken their positons in the “expected” move, then the market sometimes does the opposite. So in that respect you have to respect the triangle potential.”

    Have to respond to that – and I do it with reservation as I really like Daneric – our counts often overlap. The issue I have with this statement is that it's meaningless – we have been pushing upward for seven months now – non stop. Of course any remaining bear is expecting a correction, and that's why it's not going to happen? Based on that logic we'll keep going up forever, right? Because if we get to 1100 then the bears are going to expect a correction again, and that's why it won't happen.

    Meanwhile the bulls are expecting a run higher almost every day and are getting it. So, forgive me if I'm getting tired of this crap which I have been hearing for several months now. Unfortunately, all along it wound up being correct – which of course is depressing from a bear's perspective.

    Not sure what I can offer as a 'counter response' – do I disagree that we might push higher tomorrow? Absolutely not – the tape is in such disarray at this point that the bears continue to wimp out every time a single bull shows up. So, Daneric has a good chance of being proven right – but then again I have kept the blue scenario on the table as well – but for reasons he himself actually wrote about yesterday, which is that the wave count would fit extremely well and would represent an even better shorting opportunity.

    The statement above however I'm sick of hearing – can you rats blame me? ;-)

  • http://www.portfoliotilt.com PortfolioTilt

    We are def. at another key turning point, been following the same long term trendlines across all of the major indices. NASDAQ appears to be the closest to breaking down also http://bit.ly/vOyeB

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    being scared of own shadow or overly hyperactvive and expecting sudden change this one minute, people keep mumbling and yelling and needing and …whatever “is this the top?”, “will this report cause the top?”, “will my pimples scare the bulls?”, “what is your top number?”, “which wave is that? second third of fifth of ..WHAT?”

    This is AS TARDED as it gets, sorry brothers and sisters and animals

    what people fail to realize that NOTHING has been won by bulls for the last 2 weeks, nada, zilch, NULL
    at the same time volatility picked up, quarter ended, 3rd quarter reports are flowing through now, there is only smoke and mirrors and no improvement.

    Top is a process, just like bottom, do you want everyone start selling at once?
    Do you want everyone know what you think you know?
    You thought trading was easy?
    You will know when the top was…but it will be too late for some to cash on it.
    And it will NOT come faster you ask the same question 1000 times

    P.S. Now I am REALLY MAD – I missed /nq short at 1726!

  • Osso

    I am short since 1080 (70%) via long SPXU. I still believe we topped or maybe a final blow off top at 1092, BUT with a huge reversal down. WE WILL NOT HAVE CLOSING BASIS SPX: AT/ABOVE THE 89 WEEK SMA. I think you havent read all of Danerics points:

    ….”So the waves triangulated today which suggests there is more upside coming tomorrow but only if it follows through. And the targeted upside would be between 1069 and 1080…..”

    ….”The other side of the equation is downside and potentially big wave (iii) downside of course. The DOW violated its Minute [i] price range.”

    …..”So even if the market makes a move up tomorrow, its going to come down soon enough in my opinion. Doesn't the market like to leave you hanging at the edge every single day? See it ride and hold that trendline magically? “

    I believe in this roadmap……so no bullish for me.

  • jacksoo

    yeah, that sounds kinda good David, but one last question – do you think the top is in ;-)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    let me see
    [counting on fingers]
    wave3 of 7 down of II up of ai ai ay down over descending slope of compounded ego of blocking bloggers divided on mercury in retardgrade adding banana peel and snake eye and a bottle of rum… [mixing count and getting mad]
    how the fook [with Rissian accent] do I know? :)

  • jacksoo

    LOL – -before noon here otherwise I'd toast your sarcasm.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    hey
    we got to do what we got to do – our best, right?
    otherwise we would not be trading – would we?

  • Scrillhog

    12/26 on the left and 13/34 on the right. Both can get a little messy and give plenty of fakeouts, but help for confirmation.

  • jacksoo

    For sure – one thing this business isn't, and that's easy! On a serious
    note – you mentioned earlier (with caveat) that ~1060 SPX wld be another
    short entry = ~1056 ES – -so ? Re your DeMark (sp?) do you see futures
    having set high of next session and we get a gap down?

  • Osso

    I remember well when we were testing the already infamous H&S at 875…..expecting a neckline break, whici never happened.
    Well….if one fines tune the situation…..WE ENVER HAD A CLOSING BASIS BELOW THE NECKLINE…..and we surged up. Now, at the 1075/80 level, we are experiencing the same: no closing basis at the resistance level now sitting at 1074.
    Dont expect that to happen if this is a BMR…as I think it is.
    If it happens….I will change my stance….for technical reasons.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    with SPY – I would be OK with just continued move down, but I'd rather see move up by noon tomorrow – that will set better wave structure for impulsive wave down.
    http://screencast.com/t/hu0USRPsbQu

    with cubes – I'd love to see move up with highest point tomorrow afternoon (not exceeding 9/23 high) that will confirm 2 of wave down on hourly.
    http://screencast.com/t/80EH6J6d4wU

    either way – for as long as no new highs is set (compared to 9/23) – I am bearish and trading downside more aggressively (I was relaly hesitant to enter long today at the bottom, but… if system says “go for it” – I am the game

  • reddragonleo

    Well,

    That ended the month and quarter… hope the Bulls are happy now. I believe we will go lower over the next 2 days, then rally one last time next week. I think 1040 will hold on the down move, and then rally up next week to try and close that year old gap around 1100-1108. If we break 1040, then 1020 is next major support down. I don't know if they can rally up to that 1100 range next week, if 1020 is hit? We'll see I guess…

    Either way, I'm now short… plan to get out Friday, and may go long? Or, just sit it out till next weeks' high is make. Many people have major turn dates next week. Ranging from the 5th-7th and 8th-9th. I'm looking for the main news event that will most likely move the market.

    Yes… yes… I know, don't trade the news! Hey, the news is what makes that EW chart pick the next wave. And, it's been working for me a lot better then TA's only. So, I mix TA's EW's, News, Burdock root, Mustard seed, Frog legs, etc… into a pot, and stir till I'm punch drunk from the fumes and start having hallucinations of the future movement in the market.

    What else can I say? I learned enough about trading this market that if you were to turn all my knowledge into sand then I would have maybe one grain of sand of knowledge… compared to all the sand on all the beaches of the world! Wow! I'm really smart aren't I? LOL!

  • jacksoo

    thx David – perhaps this test of upward sloping trendline (from mch low) on SPY will be the charm

  • hindawg

    HA! Ur obviously long some kettle one.

  • TonyMontana

    Osso….what do you mean by BMR?

  • Osso

    Bear Mkt. Rally

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    gray goose only :)

  • grednfer

    Very appropriate……I especially like the astronomical inferences…..you left out the Solar Flares!

    One thing we can be assured of…..as demonstrated last week and today, the machines can drop the prices very quickly when called upon.

    I think we just have to appreciate the increased price action and try to be on the right side of the trade, up or down……profit is profit.

  • TonyMontana

    Gotcha!……Thanks!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just caught myself on “honest mistake” AKA eyes want to see etc…
    anyhow
    I was on 1120 target for a while based on daily w3 of up sequence and never bothered to double check what was the final target of C of down sequence… (my software prints C right at the moment when it is “locked” and then stops)
    recalculated – C target is 1113
    what does it change?
    Well – wave sequence up (green) for as long as wave sequence down (red) has not completed might be just a flick and 1120 w3 and consecutive w5 1250 targets might not hold water for as long as SPX is below 1113 of C target.
    http://screencast.com/t/9OT3MIB7BQ2M

  • dollar

    Nikkei looks a little sick here, close to the low from two days ago

  • shortcover

    Well I do recall his chart taking us to around 108 on the SPY. I printed it out as a matter of fact. Didn't think we'd get over 950…So what next? Just cause he toots his own horn…we prob just go sideways for a year. 1100 area top and maybe 900 floor? I'd like to see what he comes up with next…and I do recall his top call from last month…whoops!

  • rhae

    SPY daily… You tell me, going up or going down? I am only looking back short term…

    Note: I draw my trendlines different, using DeMark ring highs and lows, marked on the close of the bar, drawing from right to left, then extending forward… using the last 2 anchors… I really don't care much about old history… when trading in the present….

    http://screencast.com/t/0rIBZtFck6Q

  • PeterK80

    Bear Rally Wedge
    http://screencast.com/t/S71mRi71eb
    Shorter Term Triangle
    http://screencast.com/t/tt2VmFm7zSK

    Tomorrow will decide if P2 has topped yet or not. If we break out of the shorter triangle to the downside the entire bear market wedge could fall apart as well.

  • Trader_Steve

    I posted the triangle myself but I have two problems with it:

    1- The fiirst wave down (that I have called X or A where X means it ends) looks like 5 waves and it is clearly 5 waves in some other indexes

    2- Other indexes have a significant deviation. I think the Transports are clearly looking for a slight pop for C of 2 after a pretty god 5 wave move down. If I has a problem with 1 of the same degree, it would be that b of “ii” is significantly below the 5th wave of “i”

    To me, all this points to a minor bounce that is rejected tomorrow and then perhaps we can see a sizeable sell-off. And to work in a triangle on the SPX that X wave could not be a 5, although it didn't have the cleanest count at the bottom of 1 and I could argue that it is X (hence, my chart with the count going either way).

    Were we to start lower I imagine we could say that the orthodox highs of each index missed by a few days and did not have the same paterns. Isn't life lovely when you take around half the hedge fund money out AND the govrnment is the primary player against you and uses computers?

    Steve

  • http://anomalousmaterial.blogspot.com CastorTroy

    Mrs. Market looked like she had schizophrenia on Wednesday. Expect more of that until the smoke clears as to the real state of the economy. Q3 earnings start next week, econ data is starting to show a troubling pattern.
    http://tinyurl.com/ycv7lss

  • dollar

    Looks like the Nikkei made new lows…

  • PeterK80

    Thanks for your comments Steve. I saw your chart earlier. I dont have the confidence to label the counts since I am just starting to learn. You're saying it invalidates a triangle completely because of the first five wave move down (if thats in fact what it is labeled as) could not work in a triangle? I see your point in regards to the transports… an entirely different pattern. Right now I'm still using the rulers before I get into the EW counts :)

  • DMS425

    great post. tops should take time to establish the downside move. if we do not take out the previous intraday high we are in a down move and the farther away we get from that top the more certain or aggressive we can trade the trend.

    Q4 is going to be tough, and Q1 we probably be even move tough for the bulls.
    Housing is entering the slow season and the % of distressed sales to total sale is going to rise making housing look even worse.

  • Scrillhog

    A few charts that I've been working on and updating for a while… The first one is what I consider to be more important.. Spiral calendar dates with a target that is just over a week away. The obvious thought is that it will be a top, but if we start selling off hard then I believe it could be a bottom. I guess I'll adapt either way since tomorrow's another day. I would personally LOVE to see us hit new highs before 10/9, climbing to the 50% retracement mark around 1122, only to fall a few hundred points.

    Spiral Chart:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

    The next one is the same Fib map I've been watching – Fans, arcs, time, retracements, and a trendline. I think it's interesting how the fan lines haven't been much resistance (although we cheated and gapped over them) but they have been good support. We'll see how the last one works out (if we get to it). I'll also point out that the time ratio from the March lows to 9/21 worked out really well. it was a day or two early but definitely banked coin by going short up to 1080 (one could argue Mole advised this very thing to the T). Anyway I didn't bank as much as I should have because I covered my puts after the first big selloff – a mistake I will not make again btw.

    Chart:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

    Closer:
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/f

    Even though we got a big waterfall today, the daily candle does not look so bearish IMNSHO. We'll see what the morning brings.

  • Offtimer

    How about a vacation? Start Looking for the island or 3 in a straight line so we all can take a vacation from this market.

  • grednfer

    It sure looks like a triangle…..either way I think it signifies indecision and it will have to exit the pattern…..I don't think it will until job data Friday morning. (unless ISM and claims data is absolutely horrific).

    Although range bound, I think the dollar has been holding on now for about a week now…..that isn't good for assets expecting appreciation from USD destruction……we'll see.

  • moneyfarm

    Opened at short put spread in XOM today. Will add to position below 67.80.
    http://screencast.com/t/0CfwHTV6rfL

  • Trader_Steve

    Triangles consist of 3s. (3-3-3-3-3) If you see a 5-3-5-3-5 with an overlap, depending upon its position it could be a LD (Leading Diagonal) or an ED (Ending Diagonal). It looks like the first wave down is a 5. “BUT” on a smaller time frame than hourly it's not crystal clear (to me) that the down move is a 5. For that to be “A” or “X” it can't be a 5. Also, the triangle is not seen on other inddexes, but I don't follow them that closely that I can argue the S&P vis a vis the others.

    Now let me state that I think the mkts have change since this collapse and obvious intervention. I don't have the charts in front of me, but I got nailed on a big move up a few months ago because without question, wave 2 was a triangle. And that is not allowed. I assumed a C wave would follow that triangle as the triangle could not be a 2, it had to be a B. The next leg up was in excess of 2.618 and fast.

    I know no other way to trade but using EW. It is money management once you have a plan. But I will not write some patterns in stone as very few look as clean as the examples in the book.

    Good luck,
    Steve

  • crush1618

    Wondering if this affects IYR count as well? Thank you.

  • MariAroma

    @Scrill — RE: Spiral Calendar. Have had Carolan's book for many years, but never really used the info. Do you have software to make these calculations or ???

  • Bullturnedbear

    Anyone watching the dollar have a strong rally. Looks like a 3rd wave to me.

  • humble1 ™

    hello, october! here's my blab:

    bears have been bloodied by september and october is their last hope. what happens the first few days of october will be the key. if we start up and have a few green days and quickly close above SPX 1080, i expect a buying panic which will finish the bull move from 3/6/09 and present a tasty Time/Price high.

    comments?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    if c down is 1000 what might it give? sorry no dmarkian here?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    for someone who says he doesn't like vodka….

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    he remembered the girls in the blog, otherwise he would have mentioned 200 flare points up that planet after saturn

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nasdaq, i mentioned several times, is at limit of w4 violating w2

  • humble1 ™

    magnificent work!!!

    the arc chart adds another confirmation to my date of 10/30/09 (tm: humble1) as a very important high.

    do you have a blog where you regularly post?

  • ultrabear

    Cable: overnight wave 2 of (v) down looks like it has morphed into a flat. Looking for one more small push to 1.60080 area to complete what should be a nice short entry.

    http://screencast.com/t/K1Cnw48Gc

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Does anyone ever post tickers of specific equities and charts of specific equities, or does everyone just quote EW on indices?

  • ultrabear

    Hey, Steve. Speaking personally, I've only really just started looking at individual stocks rather than just the indexes (so you probably don't want my advice anyway lol). But everywhere I seem to look, I can see charts that need one more push to complete them.

    Probably accounts for the scarcity of them so far – can't see the point of risky and limited longs when extremely juicy shorts are just around the corner. High beta ones I especially like the look of and am tracking: BIDU (hat-tip: berkshire), AAPL and GS.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I am seeing that too…a push of 3 to 5% maybe a blow off top on that. But a few like IWM seem ready to burn — now.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Why would you say “October is their last hope”, based upon what? thanks

  • Carl V

    Mole, I like your comment about trend line. What I have observed repetitively is that after you have a 3rd trendline touch (and that includes the initial lowest low in case of an uptrendline) price must go up quickly and not wander around the trendline; if it does keep around and you have a 4th touch this is usually a break down.

  • ultrabear

    Out of interest on that one – would you say there is any objective difference in playing IWM short versus TWM long?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ooh, OEX is squeaky clean. It's noticeably different from SPX too. For instance, notice how the Sept. 17th and 29th highs are parallel on OEX but not on SPX.

    I had a little fun with crayons tonight:

    http://screencast.com/t/PfCpwl5V4

  • raised_by_wolves

    That's a great generally true observation, Carl V. The implication is that we have to pull up quickly in order to avoid a break down.

    An of mine observation: The spacing between Mole's highlighted areas that touch (or nearly touch in the case of one) keeps shortening. I can imagine us breaking here or else making one more leap that won't go as high. If there's a next highlighted area, the probability is that distance between it and the current highlighted area will be shorter still.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    looks like a nice wedge (seem to be a lot of them around!) Will be even nicer when it breaks…:)

  • humble1 ™

    77:

    imho: an UP october will take Price so high as to destroy the bear position trades and will force massive shortcovering by the aggressive bears such as kaas and einhorn and their followers, who are already deeply in the red.

    i do not believe the large hedge fund bears can withstand much more and will be forced to cover. note that doug kaas, once again just yesterday, wrote a selfserving article that the top is in.

    this phase of the bull will not be over until he and the others are massacred. and i believe we will see that right into friday, 10/30/09 (tm: humble1), an H1-timing date i have an impressive worksheet on as a HIGH.

    fwiw.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks,

    Since Mole's Post is speaking about getting back to basics essentially, I thought I would update a post from a couple of weeks back.

    There's a frantic nature to a lot of the posts here which tells me that far too many people are trying to scalp and swing trade this thing, which is leading to people getting burned in both directions and this perception that the “bull” is unstoppable, when the basic evidence is that the rally is seriously waning. [that being said I'm kicking myself for not trading the dips yesterday] So here we go again.

    From its low of 6,440 on 9th March to Yesterday's close of 9,712, the DOW has registered some 3,272 points or a 51% gain. However, the DOW hit 8,911 on the 11th of June which means 2,471 points or 75% of this rally was achieved in exactly 3 months. It has taken a further 3.67 months+ to register the remaining 801 points or 25%.

    Of this last 801 points, 700 were achieved by the 24th August. Since then, the market has tagged on just over 100 points. Around 4-5 points per trading session on the DOW, and yet people are feeling like its running away with itself. Go back and work out how much of the rally registered in the first 4 weeks and the conclusion becomes even more inescapable.

    Looking at individual components, many of the companies within the index with the healthiest balance sheets have essentially flatlined for 2 months now. Look at INTC, IBM, MSFT, AXP, T, JNJ, etc etc At the same time, total crap like GE has been dragging the index higher. GE is a disaster waiting to happen. This is strongly suggestive that managers have moved from buying quality to picking the last morsels from a carcass. I accept the bullish interpretation of this could be that these companies are merely pausing and establishing higher bases for the next leg of the rally, but I think momentum is definitely waning.

    I also think the extremely choppy nature of the last 10 days trading is not suggestive of a bull thats running to new highs. To me it suggests stockholders are nervous; they know this thing could come down at any time and they have quick trigger fingers. On the sentiment front, we've definitely moved from a situation of low expectations being easy to beat, to a situation of high expectations being easy to disappoint. RIMM's earnings recently were a sign of this. They were quite decent, but they didn't justify the hope value priced into the stock.

    I really really think that Mole's post from a couple of weeks ago, will prove to be very prophetic. This market will collapse one day, and many people, including many bears won't even realise it, because they are still waiting for the one last push, or for some crazy chart pattern to complete minute {ii} of subwave 4 of countercorrection III that happens to co-incide with an alignment of planetary forces and a 61.8% retracement of some peak and trough that there eyes have managed to convince them is a significant level on a chart.

    None of this is to criticise or demean any of the TA methods that people follow. Just to say that people sometimes need to take a step back, and look at the big picture. Anything could bring this market down at any time. There is nothing that says it has to conform to any TA method. By all means use those methods as pointers, or little post-it notes at the back of your mind when you are getting set for the day.

    I really think however, the time is coming soon, when the most profitable way of trading this crap, is too pick a direction (short :) and sit on it. I guarantee there are going to be a ton of people on the way down, who are going to cover after a fall or go long, because they expect a bounce, except the market won't bounce. It will keep going, and they will be racked with remorse for having covered too soon. So they re-short at lower levels having missed 100 points down, and THEN the market rallies and they get burned on the way back up and cover again, only to see it fall again……I have seen this far too many times.

    Be careful out there folks.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Arghhhh. Disqus again. I meant to say, I don't think we bounce today. I think that a huge amount of energy was expended for quarter end, in pulling that market back 160 points from the lows, and that we re-visit yesterday's lows today.

  • ultrabear

    Wise words.

    +1

  • AntG624

    Awesome post

  • Carl V

    Yes, true r_b_w: that goes I think with the observation that when the distance between the pivots high and pivots low shortens, then it means the end of the trend is nearing. Actually that observation came from trader Joe Ross (and probably other traders as well i guess) in his book on what he calls, a bit selfishly, the 'Ross Hook”, which actually are pivots: when the distance between the “hooks” shortens, watch for a reversal.

  • ultrabear

    Harmonic motion, damped by gravity, like when you drop a ball I guess.

    Except that when this ball stops bouncing, it drops through the floor instead of just sitting on it lol.

  • CorporalCarrot

    European Market Update;

    After positive starts for all the European indices which took them substantially green, the Euros have all reversed and are now nursing losses.

    FTSE 100; 5,102 (-31 pts, -0.62%): HOD 5,165
    DAX 5,658 (-17 pts, -0.29%): HOD 5,726

    Looking at the DAX and FTSE, they are both exhibiting the exact same pattern I referred to below, in other words they are extemely choppy for the last 11 sessions and look like forming rounded tops.

    FTSE This morning is interesting as it has broken below the trend line that pins its July lows and september lows. Lets see if it breaks down from here.

  • Carl V

    If EURUSD is any precursor of the indices today (which European indices are already down) they we can expect a down day in the US as well. I don't want to play the professor but breaking the diamond pattern of yesterday makes a target of the previous low at 1.4527 almost a sure thing target, at the minimum, well the maximum as we speak of a down move…
    http://screencast.com/t/KUD6usJKlm7

  • Carl V

    Hi Uncle Mole, I did as you said: tracing a trendline with my hand made wooden ruler, and I did it on a ES Dec09 240 minutes chart from the low of July 13. Well, now I see that not only it has been broken for some days already but also that we have an ugly MACD divergence and, speaking of Mac, it has just crossed again, and below the “0″ line, which, in 240', tells me something.
    What da ya think Uncle?
    http://screencast.com/t/AS0DBqPKx2Uq

  • Carl V

    Now I don't want to be annoying but I also see a huge triangle, best seen in 60 or 240': normally this kind of triangles is continuation pattern but here, as it comes at the end of a long and waning trend, I was just wondering if Mr Market could do me a favor: a break below the low of yesterday at 1041.5 for ES, so the triangle thing would be violated thru the downside…. come on, we are at 1047.5 as I write this…..
    http://screencast.com/t/2Ht0udLJ

  • innatedc

    As the english would say, “Spot on, dear chap..” +1

  • ultrabear

    Have to respectfully agree. Was briefly long € but have now reversed position after seeing stop breached.

    Check out this channel – it's moving upwards, but note how the support lines become resistance…

    http://screencast.com/t/mQGsvHdCoA

  • innatedc

    Don't do this often but my gut says this thing will gap below that support at 1040 and run like a freight train….but just a feeling and the fact that, as mentioned, that dollar is gaining some steam….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    C is very easy to calculate
    take high close of A subtract low close of A
    multiply on 1.618
    add to low close of A

    So if you still have my IYR daily chart ( I bet you do) – try it (if you have question don't hesitate to bug me)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    posted more detailed explanation on site

  • innatedc

    First of all can we all agree that perhaps the market was dragged up yesterday by both window dressing and oil going ballistic…..if we can then look at this chart of USO which I think is a good reward to risk short. I'm looking to short some oil stocks today namely XOM…..
    http://www.screencast.com/users/innatedc/folder

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Daily Range Projections posted

  • Carl V

    Excuse me but I have to humbly warn you that your trend line is not correct as the last low touch point is not followed by a new high. So this line might be a fan line of some sort but not a trend line.

  • innatedc

    You can “humbly” warn me all you want but I stand by that trendline….here's a panned out view….
    http://www.screencast.com/users/innatedc/folder

  • springheel_jack

    Wouldn't argue with any of that.

  • Carl V

    Ok I got it – we now we see the initial line point. But personally I would wait to see if prices touch (and perhaps exceeds) the line in logarythmic scale, which has not happened so far. Just a “humble” thought and I certainly don't want to influence your trade decision.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    that works the same way as with women – if I sleep with one I don't love – that should be THE BEST :)

  • innatedc

    I guess maybe you didn't notice we are right below 50MA and soon 20MA as well….either way inflection point is right here….fakeout or breakdown.

  • gmak

    I'll add my 2 cents' worth this AM. I see, on the EUR hourly chart, twin tops and twin bottoms. This suggests a big bearish flag to me, that runs from around 1.4530 up to 1.4870 more or less. Zooming back to the daily shows a staff that began around 1.4840 and bottomed at the afore-mentioned 1.4530; If this flag breaks then we have 1.42 as a target.

    Right now, on the daily EUR, I have TD price exhaustion confirmed at 1.4379, and strong resistance at 1.4300 – so that is something for the dark side, anyway.

    Cheers.

  • Carl V

    sure, sure…let's say that for this one I would rather enter on a break of the last low with indeed a larger stop then – but it just depends on the trading style and preferences i guess. Good luck anyway.

  • ultrabear

    Bottom is holding so far. If it does…

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Good morning Rats and Meeces, I have a big smile on this morning for 2 reasons, one I am giving myself a treat this morning that only a girl would understand :-D, and two. I have said along with Katzo that time is near. I am hoping today is the catalyst, but it could be next week, but I am loaded up to the hilt on puts everywhere :))

    I will put a trailing stop in before I leave as I will be gone most likely to about 11am. (and you can;t any chances anymore) G/L and see you all in a few

  • Carl V

    Hi gmak, yes i agree. About 1.430, wouldn't that be a support instead ?? Not sure i followed you there. Agree on the daily, and when you scale on weekly the picture is even worst if it can close the week no higher of course: 2 spinning top candles in a row.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Good Morning. I share your enthusiasm Anna. Covered some early this morning for a dumb bounce. Anyone know what happened at 2AM EST to slam the Euro down?

  • 9pins

    Germany had a bad m/m Retail Sales number -1.2%

  • ultrabear

    Mentioned AUDUSD the other day – it may be significant because apparently it's the carry-trade du jour.

    Well, it may have topped today: http://screencast.com/t/wPHXzea6o

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhound Scrillhound

    Thanks… I just post here and occasionally at SOH.. What are you using to get the 10/30/ high? There are a few time dates that converge there also.

  • Nightwind

    Good morning. Looks like USD got stronger overnight but maybe tracing out possible bear wedge.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the answer I'd like to know:
    “What the fuck is wrong with ThinkOrSwim?!”

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The got bought by TD Ameritrade… :-P

    Skål!

  • 9pins

    no prob here with ToS, seems fine so far.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    even AMTD data stream is better, I am so mad, I wrote Moglia – hope they will do something

  • Nightwind

    you made too much money yesterday…..they want it back

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    the moment reports were out – data freezed

  • dollar

    8:33 AM Aug. Personal Income and Outlays: Personal income +0.2% vs. consensus of +0.1%. Spending +1.3% vs. consensus of +1.1%. PCE price index +0.3% M/M and -0.5% Y/Y. Core price index +0.3% on month and +1.3% on year. Comment!

    8:31 AM Initial Jobless Claims: +17K to 551,000 vs. consensus of flat at 530K. Continuing claims -70K to 6,090,000.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    and I am not even a “good customer” – I only had 5 trades yesterday (way too many!)

  • Me_XMan

    Let the selling or buying starts. :)

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhound Scrillhound

    I just use a time and date calculator:

    http://www.timeanddate.com/date/duration.html

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Thank You.

  • 9pins

    Dave.. Agree with you in that I have noticed, sometimes to the minute we get important market data.. ToS data will freeze up, but no probs on my end today… so far.

  • ultrabear

    And the € just breached its 3-day low – bullish for DXY – let's see what happens….

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com/annamall annamall

    Dedicated to all the BEARS here

    just a few of us waving for a piece of the tape LOL
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REXA6AhagKE

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up
    If the DXY /USD vs SPX correlation holds, then ES is probably in for some hurt today. We did hit Carl's target on the EUR of 1.4527 ish. But I believe that there will be more downside (upside for DXY) over the next 1 – 5 days.
    I see, on the EUR hourly chart, twin tops and twin bottoms. This suggests a big bearish flag to me, that runs from around 1.4530 up to 1.4670 (applies to the post replying to Carl as well) more or less. Zooming back to the daily shows a staff that began around 1.4840 and bottomed at the afore-mentioned 1.4530; If this flag breaks then we have 1.42 as a target.

    Right now, on the daily EUR, I have TD price exhaustion confirmed at 1.4379, and strong resistance at 1.4300 – so that is something for the dark side, anyway.

    Although my post got wiped out, yesterday exhibited the degree of volatility one would have expected on the SPX. I think the most important point was that, near closing, everytime a pumper tried to pin the market higher for EoQ, there were blocks hitting the ES and knocking it down. Even with the last minute ramp, ES fell almost immediately at the SPX close. Distribution my friends, distribution.

    Equities
    Asia is mixed, with Nikkei down 1.5% but Shanghai up 0.9%; Europe didn't buy that and the EUR began selling off at the open. Right now, it is all red with the dax down 0.6% and FTSE down about the same. ES peaked around the europe open and fell pretty much until 7 AM – when the next shift of pumpers drags into work, I guess.We are now putting in a bearish flag with a staff of about 6 points – but pre-market in ES doesn't always work according to Hoyle (obscure card manual reference meaning by the rules).

    FX
    DXY is up. CAD, JPY, EUR and GBP are all down. GOLDS is down but still above 1000, and oil is down almost a buck (CLX9 – futures).
    EUJY is up – but ES is down. Looks like a disconnect for what Zero Hedge considers the carry trade relationship.
    I wrote about EUR quite a bit above.

    EUR pivots:
    Neutral is way up above at 1.4630
    S1: 1.4586 – looks like resistance as the 3 min EUR runs in a downward channel)
    S2: 1.4532 – this is where we have bottomed for the time being.

    Even though we have bottomed on the 3 min, it is forming a bear flag. If this braks properly, it means more downside. there is some support just below at 1.4527 – so it might be here a while, until the FED decides to slam DXY again.

    I just want to reiterate that, on the 1 hour EUR, we put in a double top up around 1.4670 (once on Monday, and once yesterday), and a double bottom (Tuesday, and today AM). Quite a pattern – looks like 2 camel humps. As always, it is a binary event. We either fall through here (meaning that the worm has turned for ES definitely) or we go back up to hit 1.4670 for the third (and final, IMHO) time – which should take another day.

    NEWS
    IMF raises their global growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.5% based on Asian results.
    Ken Lewis is gone.
    G-7 outlooks is being blamed for the EUR weakness
    There is some speculation that US homeowners will start walking away from mortgages – even if they can afford to pay them. rut-roh! The reason is

    Data
    Jobless claims ros to 551K – rut roh again. But markets not moving on this yet. Guess AH and yesterday were the positioning on this. EUR is moving back up.
    Personal income was 0.2% vs 0.1% expectations – bullish. Previous was revised from 0% to 0.2% as well
    Spending was 1.3% vs 1.1% expected = bullish. Previous was revised to 0.3% from 0.2%
    PCE deflator = -0.5% vs -0.6% exp. prior was -0.8% = bullish
    PCE core YoY = 1.3% vs 1.3% exp and 1.4% prior
    MoM = 0.1% vs 0.1% exp and 0.1% prior.

    10AM will be ISM mfg, construction spending and pending home sales. Some time today will be total and domestic vehicle sales.

    SPX
    My daily chart from the weekend still applies. We have not broken below the mid Bollinger yet – but bounced off of it (more or less) yesterday. It is at 1042.82 – so this is the SPX target for today, if we continue to bleed red. I still have the target of 1014ish – based on a pivot point, and the crossing of two major trend lines. OVerhead, resistance of BIG YELLOW is now above 1077ish (thick line).

    TD Wave 1 of 5 down, or 4 of 5 up (depending where we are in the count – IMHO we are in 1 of 5 down – but what do I know?), need to reach 1041.17 for the wave to be “in” even though it could go lower.

    Trying to keep this from getting too wordy. Not much else to say, really, except be careful. We've had 2 red SPX days in a row. We have 3 from Sep 23 – 25 (wed to fri last week), and 4 in a row from Aug 30 on. Today certainly looks red – but look to EUR or DXY for clues regarding pending games.

    Cheers.

  • Osso

    tks….thats a lot of good stuff.
    It was missing here..so good for you…!!!!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Top notch… Thanks for the numerous head's ups…

    Skål!

  • innatedc

    +1 as always Gmak….

  • gmak

    ES pivots:
    R2: 1074.33 – haven't been here in quite a while (relatively speaking)
    R1: 1063.67 – got here on Tuesday, one candle only on the 5 min ES
    Neutral: 1052.58 – back and forth through this a few times AH until europe opened.
    S1: 1041.92 – Key support from yesterday before the “big” ramp. We may bounce here again. It looks like it was resistance on Monday.
    S2: 1030.83 – hope burns eternal if you're bearish.

  • gmak

    Thanks.

  • gmak

    You're welcome. At least Disqus didn't eat it this AM. By the way, I have a meeting at 9AM, so let's see if the market tanks in my absence.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I assume those are $SPX pivots, not /ES pivots? Based on the non-quarter point intervals?

    Skål!

  • gmak

    Glad I could help.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    YAY!!!

    Skål!

  • Carl V

    Great post gmak – thank you.

  • gmak

    That 1.4870 should be 1.4670 – bad typo. Yes that is support at 1.43, not resistance (brain fart). I was looking from underneath. lol.

  • gmak

    That 1.4870 should be 1.4670 – bad typo. Yes that is support at 1.43, not resistance (brain fart). I was looking from underneath. lol.

  • gmak

    That 1.4870 should be 1.4670 – bad typo. Yes that is support at 1.43, not resistance (brain fart). I was looking from underneath. lol. Sorry about that.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    splendid job!

  • gmak

    They are ES pivots. Its just the way Bloomberg spits the math out.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Aye Aye… Some people never learn I suppose…

    Skål!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    hmm, Benny B has a meeting at 9 – can you make him wait?

  • 9pins

    G' great stuff thxs.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Futures moving up here or the Personal Spending data. Aren't the bulltards able to factor in Cash for Clunkers into the “surprise”?

  • gmak

    <blush>
    Thanks to everyone. I'm just happy to be in such strong company. It makes me think more and makes me a much better trader to be able to see what you all have to say.
    Thanks, again.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it all depends on what server they hooked you up, some have no problems, but as DHCP puts you on yet another IP – sometimes you doomed

  • dollar

    Dollar again bumping up against a long trend line going back to March highs: http://screencast.com/t/uDS6cYxsaz

    Dollar trending down since March, market trending up since March: about to reverse?

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Right up to the VWAP and underside of the potential (and ever-elusive) triangle we may have sighted…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Right up to the VWAP and underside of the potential (and ever-elusive) triangle we may have sighted…

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    In a 3 wave move, no less…

    Skål!

  • AS2009

    Doula – got it – thanks a lot :)

  • z12run

    When the September number comes in and is down significantly from the August number, they will then factor in the C4C and tell us everything is fine.

  • Douala

    :-)

  • rhae

    It appears that AMTD is having some kind of problem also, tho quotes seem ok…
    SPY got renamed to Smartpay Limited Ordinary, which obviously is not correct. Hope problems do not expand

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    are you listening to reports again?
    go to the corner!

  • CorporalCarrot

    </puts dunce cap on and walks to corner>

    :-)

  • Douala

    Interesting observation by McHugh
    ~~~~~~~
    What is more concerning, is the progress of the Rising Bearish Wedge pattern in the NASDAQ 100. The bottom boundary stopped the decline Wednesday, so now this pattern has five touch points on the upper boundary and four touch points on the bottom boundary. That is an impressive number of trend turns off these converging trend lines, and adds power to the pattern, more reliability. What is left for this pattern to complete is one more sharp rally leg, perhaps to the 1,800 level +/-. Then, a catastrophic decline should start, wave 3 down in the NDX, and wave (C ) down in the blue chip indices. The downside target of this pattern is its starting point, which in this case is 1,050, about 40 percent below Wednesday's close. Prices could fall even lower, below the starting point of this pattern. What is happening here is that buying is being met with stronger and stronger selling as prices edge higher. Once prices fall below the bottom boundary, a trend reversal is suggested. We are about to start the month of October, which has often seen major tops and the start of major plunges. Maybe again.

    [note space after http]

    30 min http ://www.screencast.com/t/y85ghe8ez

    60 min http ://www.screencast.com/t/tEg6jKFK

    Vol http ://www.screencast.com/t/zYMZ8v6eVw

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    78.6% retrace of entire move down on Aussie $ is 88.14 (on the futures). Reversal bar intra day at 88.08 last night. trading 87.59 now…. Nice short with a tight stop. This is a key cog in the whole 'risk trade'… when it goes it should go big. Huge potential with little risk here.

  • gmak

    Off to my meeting. Let the fun begin. lol

  • skynard

    Applications rose by 17,000 to 551,000 in the week ended Sept. 26, from a revised 534,000 the week before, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance fell in the prior week to 6.09 million, the least since April.

    Let's rally!

  • CorporalCarrot

    <The total number of people collecting unemployment insurance fell in the prior week to 6.09 million, the least since April. >

    So more people on food stamps, eh? ;)

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    Bought some puts, it’s going down today. Even it holds my puts should gain in value because of the increased Vol…..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep..that´s it!

  • Bart7

    What's with all the advertising on TV now for the “2012″ end of the world movie that's not coming out until November?

  • reddragonleo

    Good Morning Girl…

  • Me_XMan

    Huh? Today?

  • springheel_jack

    Looking at where GBPUSD just turned, if it keeps on going down, then we may be finishing the right shoulder soon of a small H&S indicating to 1.583.

  • innatedc

    Heads up- 30 years futs making a breakout run possibly…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SJ – I posted “expanded” view (after my post here yesterday)
    in short
    “what does it change? in terms of points – not much, 1120 or 1113 is no biggie.

    But it might change MORE THAT JUST A NUMBER.
    Well – wave sequence up (green) for as long as wave sequence down (red) has not completed might be just a flick and 1120 w3 and consecutive w5 1250 targets might not hold water for as long as SPX is below 1113 of C target.

    And that might sync daily and weekly counts just about now.”

  • reddragonleo

    I think they delayed the movie until 2013… wonder who will be left to see it? (Just kidding)

  • Douala

    Good Morning Leo!

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks David

  • Bart7

    anybody heard from f_aq? He was looking for a further rally into this time frame to get short….

  • ultrabear

    Goddamn Mercury retrograde – two power trips in 5 mins!! Must stick a UPS on the shopping list…

  • springheel_jack

    We are simultaneously dropping out of the bottom channel of the SPX short-term triangle and the SPX bear wedge for the rally leg since July.

    We are now at yesterday's lows more or less.

    This is either a low risk long with tight stops or a very significant resolution to the downside.

  • rhae

    SPY 60m I have key support @ 104.78

  • Osso

    XOM lower low than yesterday….message there…

  • Bart7

    Mercury came out of retrograde a day or 2 ago, must be something with uranus… Full moon Saturday, some turn dates Oct. 7 and 8

  • Osso

    LQD….down 1.03…. TLT HOD

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Is someone running a correlation on the market being down at the open and GMAK being gone. From what I have seen, it is a pretty reliable indicator… :-P

    Skål!

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Chicago ISM leaked a minute or so before the thing hit Bloomberg yesterday. Think the market is anticipating a weak ISM.

  • Osso

    manipulating USO again…above yesterdays high…

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    ISM must be bad… and GS got the line before the open…

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    subscribers get that number 3 minutes before everyone else…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Although LQD gapped down, LQD has not (yet) broken the bottom channel line I've drawn.

    http://screencast.com/t/jV1Z2NKcHd

  • insite

    i saw that! burn baby burn

  • dollar

    Conspiracy theorists are buzzing this morning regarding the release of the weaker than expected Chicago PMI. Economists were expecting a level of 52.0, but the actual level came in well below 50 (46.1). Even though the report was released to the general public at 9:45 ET, the S&P 500 began its nosedive minutes before the official release of the report. At first glance, most would agree that the report was leaked.
    But, as Bespoke point out, nothing nefarious was taking place (emphasis ours):

    The S&P 500 certainly did decline prior to the official release, but traders should be aware that anyone who wants early access to this report can do so provided they are willing to pay for it.

    On the company’s website, Kingsbury describes the Chicago PMI as, “a proven monthly ‘first look’ at business, government and NGO economic activity in the USA.” They then go on to say that subscribers to Kingsbury’s data will receive “access to this market-moving data 3 minutes before public release.” In other words, Kingsbury will ‘leak’ the report to anyone who is willing to pay at least $200 per month.

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/dailyview/2009/

  • Nightwind

    Vix made new high

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Thank you very much.

  • losershot

    this is a private report, and the importance placed on it by traders is their own.
    it would be a different story had this been a government report.
    the whiners will fade quickly.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Went long DRN at 124.50 — stop is yesterday's low.

  • TheCrowe

    Excellent point.

  • centerline

    UAUA giving it up good. 10%+ down.

  • Bart7

    light turnout today here and on slope, where's the rest of the cast, alpha, bergs etc.?

  • ultrabear

    +1 for the best avatar on here – loving your work

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    XOM Getting Close…..

  • dollar

    XLF broke yesterday's low

  • http://alwaysanothertrade.blogspot.com/ dire_wolf

    on the 5 min es futs chart we are trading below TD Seq and TD Combo buy stop levels generated this a.m. That could be a sign of extreme weakness because we have failed to rally above them for about 20 minutes now.

  • raised_by_wolves

    While the indices remain suspended in midair, the DXY has dropped below 77.

  • Carl V

    SPX here we go

  • centerline

    finally, break through 1048.

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol

  • raised_by_wolves

    Here it comes?

  • ColonelKurtz

    Nice triangle on AIG 10 day chart. Currently falling out of bottom . Target projections if it confirms?

  • Osso

    XOM…………LOD 67.72….

  • molecool

    I got your treat right here babe :-)

  • dollar

    IWM also broke yesterday's low

  • nummy

    morning folks … LQD is testing it's March trendline today … let's hope it finally breaks!!!
    http://twitpic.com/jtxb3
    a close today below 105.5ish should break the trendline.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Come on 1040!!!!!!!!!!!

  • MrBF

    if we get through 1039-1040, a waterfall be coming

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    TAKE THIS MARKET TO HELLLLLLLLL

  • insite

    she's goin' down like a crack whore when the rent's past due

  • Me_XMan

    BENNY! WHERE ARE YOU???

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I wish those MArch puts would pick up steam..Dammm things are not moving that much.grrrrr

  • TheCrowe

    sold QQQQ oct $42 Puts. $.69 in (via VCS.) $1.06 out …Looks like I'm early (as usual)

  • gmak

    I'm ba-ack. Anyone who wants to pay me to go to meetings, step right up! Lol.

    You should probably expect a bounce here in SPX for no other reason than the fact that my meeting is over!

  • CorporalCarrot

    As I said earlier, it looks like all the energy was expended yesterday trying to keep the tape painted for EOQ/EOY, and there doesn't seem to be anything left in the tank. Another few points and it could be a BIIIG Down day.

  • PeterK80

    Crap, he's back… does this mean I should cover?

  • Osso

    the bastards might even rallied it….

  • nummy

    yeah did we forget what happened after yesterday's morning tank?

  • centerline

    Got that one on my screen from this morning. Thanks to Keirsten for this one. Absolutely insane chart.

  • gmak

    Sorry to pre-empt Douala but, it appears that a TA has fired that would indicate a fall in the market. The only element missing is Institutional distribution. Apparently we are not there yet. see link for one page summary.

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarket

  • CorporalCarrot

    Pending home sales looks “positive” if you are a bull and not wlling to look at Karl Denningers site. Lets see can it do anything for the tone of the market.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    DOW's broken new low

  • CorporalCarrot

    PPT defending 9,600, 1040 with all their might.

  • ColonelKurtz

    Anyone care to educate me on this. I see this every now and then on some stock options. Example October $43 call ask is 3.90 while the October $43 Put bid is 4.20. Could you not by the call and sell a put for a credit of .30?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    PPT must run out of money to keep painting this tape up at some point. And methinks that point is near.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    Bernanke is busy answering questions.

  • gmak

    EUR is trying hard to put in a qualified price exhaustion to 1.4534 – just above it's next support pivot. EUR has to close the current 3 min bar below 1.4566 (it ends at 10:15) for this to happen. EUR is below (just) the lower bollinger on the 3 min chart. On the 1 hour chart, we are still putting in a bearish wedge /flag (depending on how you squint).

  • sportspotatoe

    VIX ..another HOD

  • CorporalCarrot

    UNlike yesterday, I'm not letting profits dissipate today. I'm going to layer stops all the way from 9,630 upwards, and look to re-short. Dow looks to have temporarily stabilised and I would be devastated if it managed to re-climb the mountain like it did yesterday. I don't think it looks like the buying power is there, but just in case.

  • gmak

    EUR is still trying to qualify that price exhaustion target – looks like it will happen on this bar (up to 10:18 EDT).

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks, it really looks like 1,040 is the “line in the sand” here.

  • MrBF

    yep totally agree. looking at the 1039-1040 area. Expect a big move down when it finally goes down. Today would be nice :)

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Bart7

    I think 1039 is the widely advertised number…. always makes me a bit leary when too many are seeing that, makes for a reversal area as did 880 some time back…

  • MrBF

    btw 1041.17 was the low last friday. Watching that as well.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Oh lord is this the beginning of a slow 100/10 point grind?

  • Osso

    Seems the Bulls know the trendline break point…..wow..!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    OEX

  • rhae

    anything can happen and usually does… Just know where the important lines are…
    SPY 60m the horrizontal lines will not change much, the trendlines will
    http://screencast.com/t/pBXSoBAkRUD

  • Nightwind

    Spx possible 1050ish backtest?

  • Bart7

    ok, so what's the freakin wave count now?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I would like to see Mr Vix close over 30 by the end of the week

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Looking fairly bearish here, but give the day some time to swing us all around.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Wouldn't we all…

    Skål!

  • Osso

    if the bears cant make a statement today…..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    any DAX traders_ Looks like DAX id breaking down from July wedge…
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/SsS7wO1OK

  • Me_XMan

    Getting ready to play the bounce?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Grrr, this purple channel refuses to break!

    http://screencast.com/t/CqE97FIc

  • lilme

    LQD shot down through its trendline -

  • Henny

    anyone looking at LQD?

  • Henny

    yep – see if it holds/continues…

  • centerline

    Yes. Looking good so far (knock on wood).

  • Douala
  • dollar

    More power down today than yesterday

  • shortcover

    raising stops on qid, sds…sound like broken record…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Wouldn't it be hilarious, if after all this time, with even bearish websites and bullish websites alike slagging him off, if Prechter was actually right and 1080 was the P2 top?

    Looking at the action here, it doesn't (touch wood) look like a re-run of yesterday. A huge amount of buying power must have been exhausted yesterday.

    Anyone got an update on what constitutes an official trend break here? Where would we need to go to to consider this anything other than a much needed pullback?

  • Osso

    XOM is the tell….imo

  • raised_by_wolves

    Not mine! It's holding right on the line.

    http://screencast.com/t/enx4LvxdGNs

  • dollar

    nice! :-)

  • wex

    selling a put and buying a call creates a synthetic long position. It is unlikely that you could execute with that large a credit unless there were some other consideration such as an ex dividend date looming

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    XOM is like 20% of the S&P or something like that

  • AudioTactics

    I went long SPY at 104.25.

    Also long TBT (double short 20+yr Tsy Bonds) again today.

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    I'll repeat: Time is more important than price. When a cycle is due, the market turns regardless of POMO, market makers, etc. Do you think the seasons stop for the Fed? I stuck to my guns and stayed short. I just hope they don't pull another day like yesterday. The biggest difference today is that the SPY is under the 20 MA. That's a big deal — if they can close below it.

  • Osso

    yes

  • Bart7

    what's your cycle top date? main one floating around I think is Oct 7 to 9 area…

  • BaldEagle

    Looks like the same script as yesterday…Drop and then get a methodical ramp up back to even for the day

  • PeterK80

    I am looking for a possible re-test of the break out of the triangle 1047 or so and then fall back down…
    USO really looking to back test here… will be watching that closely:

    http://screencast.com/t/RWdMXKP1IeJh

  • rhae

    SPY 60m… everyone has fun throwing darts… what the heck, I will take a shot :-)
    Note: I am not playing it cuz darts do not always fly by my rules…
    http://screencast.com/t/eR6RMj5t

  • TheCrowe

    If you have naked put approval for your account (over $25k + forms/margin/etc), yes you could. For a net credit of .3 (minus commissions) you get alot of downside risk('the horror') and alot of upside potential ('the roach'.) I'd imagine there's a name for a spread like this, but for now, we'll call it 'the Brando'… Dig it?

    Richard

    Capt Willard: “Do you know who's in charge here?”
    The Roach: “Yeah.”

  • Osso

    Has GLD been included in the S&P 500…???? it moves as abroad mkt stock….hehe

  • Henny

    Thanks – I'll be very excited when/if the 20ema crosses the 50ma…

  • dollar

    looks like the 20 ema is just about the same as S1 today on the SPY:
    20=104.67, S1=104.65

  • bearmaid

    According to Ron Walker we just got a confirmed 1-2-3 price reversal for the SPY because of the lower low on the 60 min.
    http://thechartpatterntrader.blogspot.com/

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    MU is one of the stocks I recommended to short a while back when Mole deman….err…requested 10 candidates. ;) Short at will.

    http://tinyurl.com/y8ze2d8

  • Carl V

    Agree, and we will have a daily 123 reversal when SPY will touch 104.08 – I think this number (1040.8 on SPX, 1035.50 on ES) is key. Come on, come on…..

  • tradejane

    Yup. That's a great chart thanks. :)

  • reddragonleo

    If it closes below 1040, then 1020 is the next support level. I'll go long if we hit 1020. I'm out of my shorts as 1040 is major support. I'm going to wait until tomorrow before I decide if I want to go long over the weekend or not. I still believe the high is next week. It should be a back test of today's broken trend line.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Doesn't seem to have the same rebound energy though. Too much gunpowder used yesterday. I will probably be proved totally wrong of course, but I thought yesterdays ramp was far quicker.

  • bearmaid

    Agree, waiting for 1040.8 on SPX

  • http://www.OptionsVista.com 1option

    Here is some good reading material on Put/Call Parity for you option traders:
    http://optionsvista.com/1option/379-demystifyin

  • insite

    i think volume's a little too high for 'them' to have yesterday's kind of impact. agree they probably shot the wad yesterday into EOQ.

  • Osso

    XOM…under 67.67…its a tell…..

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • PeterK80

    I agree Osso… the thing cant find a bottom right now.

  • cramar

    XOM has been in a tightening range since the Mar. low. No trend!

  • molecool

    Looks nice but I would have either shorted at 8.75 or would wait for 7.25 when that trend line is being breached. Looks very high beta however – might as well trade the Spiders.

  • Me_XMan

    BENNNNNNYYYYYY!! WHERE ARE YOU??????????????

  • Me_XMan

    NEED MORE POMO!!

  • Bart7

    widely advertised 1039 level being tested, let's see if it holds…

  • rhae

    like I said, darts do not always play by the rules,,, at next key support here 103.83

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    I am talking about shorting the common. I can't play in the same game as you big boys. ;)

    http://tinyurl.com/yas4d35

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Shouldn't SPX bounce soon

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    My guess if back up to 1042

  • rhae

    picked up some hedge long, a f'up I do not know, if the next 60m bar opens below my STL ( support trendline) I will close it….

  • humble1 ™

    let me give you several for now:

    * the 1.272 extension of 3/24/00 -> 10/11/07

    * an f15 back counter from future date 10/28/11 (mayan)

    * 36 years from the 1973 high (10/26/73)

    * a lindsay low-low-high 7/8 -> 9/3 -> 10/30

    * there some gann square of nine stuff

    * 80 years from 10/29/1929-10/30/1929. perverse, i know.

    * saturn into libra (ray merriman)

    now, this might be the biggee:

    look on page 65 of your SC book and run that Time Segment from the first new moon post spring equinox 2 1/2 years ago.

  • Guest

    Thanks, Scrill

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhound Scrillhound

    Great thoughts, thank you… I also had a few dates coming together at 10/30 and near 11/23 as well. I need to go finish researching those. Away from my books right now but I will check that time segment this evening. It seems that if the 10/9 – 10/11 timeframe is going to be a top we’ll need a bounce here very soon. Also, if you’re not familiar w/ the Slosh reports, take a look at these two:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/folders/Default/media/b728b9ca-3bd9-4e38-9100-8c5a91924d66/SLOSH10.08.png

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Scrillhog/folders/Default/media/68f1c8a5-7c0b-42c2-b576-694e5c342f64/SLOSH10.22.png

    Looks like a lot of liquid being pulled from the banks…

  • MariAroma

    Didn't Mercury go “direct” on Sept. 29 ?

  • Guest

    Didn't Mercury go “direct” on Sept. 29 ?

  • Anonymous

    Thank you for replying. I was querying about the Sell Setup on TD chart on IYR you posted around Sept 17. The other day you posted a change in SPX, so was wondering if any change in IYR. So, I guess IYR still has to go through TD-Sell-Countdown? Thanks. However, I guess things changed today after SPX broke below 1040.

  • Anonymous

    Thank you for replying. I was querying about the Sell Setup on TD chart on IYR you posted around Sept 17. The other day you posted a change in SPX, so was wondering if any change in IYR. So, I guess IYR still has to go through TD-Sell-Countdown? Thanks. However, I guess things changed today after SPX broke below 1040.

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhound Scrillhound

    Hi Humble… I ran that time segment and came up w/ F16 from 4/17/07 = 10/30 or 927 days… I’m having trouble finding the other side though, F17 or F19 backwards to get something that makes sense. Did you find that those conditions matched the F19′s that were present in 29/ 87?

  • humble1 ™

    yes.

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhound Scrillhound

    I see F17 and F19 backwards that both match up with a full and new moons, which is fascinating. Do you have an email? I would love to run some things by you this weekend as it might be too long for a comment here.

  • humble1 ™
  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    just posted updated charts

  • http://twitter.com/Scrillhound Scrillhound

    email sent





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