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If it's true that our species is alone in the universe, then I'd have to say the universe aimed rather low and settled for very little.
George Carlin

Hey, it's just a prototype...

Goodnight folks. Hope your positions work out tomorrow and mine too.

friends, countrybears, lend me your ears

the pressure is on, for the first time GS wave failed enough to leave hope (some).

There was no EOD HOD

Tomorrow the gap up and morning push must break 1069 and then 1080 to break this wave down.

If they fail it's s&p 800 (or lower)

If they succeed it's 1500+

That's what this AH futures is all about

Our best hope is full bear attack as soon and market open, waiting beyond 1080 to short risks shorting a NOMINAL new bull (like the one leading to 2007)

Nasdaq seems to have rejected this madness breaching 2150, they have a different story 2000 onwar, that might breack this aberration if it stops dead.

If s&p climbs further it will be on negative value vs gold.

beyond 1100 go gold, double gold or (if you must go long on equities) leverage enough IN THE MONEY (growth will be generaly slow)

see what happened february 2003 onwards, little shorting oportunities before new high

gold rise will be braked for a while but it will catch on (see my chart s&p/gold)

one way or the other we're heading for s&p at a tenth of current values in gold, but the choice is not ours

thanks for reading

Yup, the AA beat is a major milestone for the bulls in the short term and its likely we retest highs pretty soon. We will have to see if we fade tomorrow's gap once we open http://bit.ly/3qPIu7

Don't forget Spain

Mole,

I should have posted this earlier. Most people don't have a glue what it takes to keep this blog going. Too many people want the sugar coated version, "you tell me what to do, I do it and make money". They supply not original thought, take no action to make the trade be their own, and expect you to be correct every time. Like any trader is correct every time! When you are wrong, they are pissed like it is your fault.

I'm hugely short this market, mostly Dec and Mar, but not so far out strikes, so I don't feel the pressure yet. On the other hand, I was way too early with many Oct that expired worthless. I still have a lot of powder dry, as that is my way of trading, never have much at risk. If the market goes higher, I'll add a huge dose of longs to mitigate what the puts are losing. Makes me sleep like a baby at night, and when I'm right, the little I have invested grows the account quite nicely.

Anyway, thanks for all the hard work and just ignore the morons who show up blaming you.

I'm short 1/4 at 1063.50 and 1722.75. Last Friday when I said I would be waiting for Thursday or Friday I never expected to be back up here. Craziness.

Thanks for the post

That's a fact........and the dollar is dying again

The only way to reduce health care cost is to eliminate insurance. You just think you're having a hard time now. Full disclosure: my neighbor is a dentist too and I am electrical engineer.

My bros a retired ME/patent attorney from Eaton......my son is an Optical Engineer for nlight in Hillsboro OR.

Well when you consider the industry started with the brits betting on whether ships would return.......yeah......your exactly right.......try telling the elderly we're taking away their SOCIALIZED medicine(medicare).......try telling the dairy farmers we're taking away milk subsidies.......the only reason we have business is because of the structure of government. Business operates in the governmental framework. No framework and you have towns like Butte Montana where the buildings were built right next to each other because NO grass would grow due to the pollution.

We are on the same side. 20%/5 spx points above the neckline.

Some trading thoughts "The dark side of desire" http://bit.ly/15fMG1

This post is about one important, but often overlooked rule, having huge philological impact on trader's course of actions and decision making process.



Never confuse "Making money for the sake of fulfilling material desires" with "Making money as having profit on a good trade". We do trade for achieving material independence, when we place the trade we need to think TRADE, NOT "I need to make $50K to buy new car". Setting material goal as a trade objective is dangerous, it clouds our judgment, messing up initial trade setup and timing and interfere with "close position" decision. What if we are not going to make $50K on a trade or "within a month"? Are we going to hold position forever if we only making $48K? Are we going to quadruple the size of position to achieve "$50K objective" sooner? Remember "counting turkeys" story? Are we going to trade even if market is bad and timing is wrong? I doubt that many of us will answer "yes" to any of these questions.

So here comes the rule: Trade the TRADE - you'll decide how to spend profits AFTER you'll make it.

Great point David. Trouble arises when a trader needs to "re-coup" losses. When attempting to "recoup losses" a trader has a specific minimum amount in mind, and is vulnerable to bet recklessly to achieve the objective. This is when a bear goes in a death spiral in a bull market, and a bull goes in a death spiral in a bear market.

+10!!! YES!

Market makers gonna leave a ton of gaps just waiting to be filled.... I can already taste it now lol

$1.4 trillion deficit, CIT going under, real unemployment at 20%, and the Dow rallies over 50% and shills for investment firms tell us it's undervalued.

I have a book her, "Manias, Panics, and Crashes." A future edition will include the lining of oligarch's pockets as the government tried to spend it's way out of the hole it was digging with a shovel. What this government is doing to future generations would be said by John Locke to mandate a revolution. I hope we can stall it's oppressive actions until the 2010 election and then hold all their feet inches from the fire. Our government is no longer a Shining City on a Hill. It is a bucket of manure. Democrats voted today to keep Chaarlie Wrangle, a demonstrable crook, in power. We live in two America's alright. One is suffering and the ruling elite line their pockets as fast as they can. If ever "Mr. Smith Goes to Washinton" had a time, it is now. Sadly, there isn't one politician as played by Claude Raines who would admit Mr. Smith is right. The NY Times cares more about Michelle Obama's roots to slavery than being all over this spending. Poor, Poor Michelle, who had her plush $187,000 job thanks to her husband. And that Theesis at Princeton, replete with mistakes in grammar, was a joy to read. The poor oppression she felt ratherr than feeling blessed to attend.

Anyone Irish here? The odds are about 100% that your ancestors include a young woman stolen and sold into slavery. It was the way of the world. There's a book Professor Walter E. Williams has referenced entitled "Out of Africa" where a black journalist traces his roots back to Africa and thanks God his ancestors were selected to come here, as does Prof. Williams. Victimology is good for the Obamas, but the middle class? They can be decimated to meet his quest for power. This market might go up some more, but I wouldn't buy it with my worst enemy's money.

Steve

Well, I just spent 2 hours fighting with Aetna over a knee surgery for my son. I'm a dentist and we spend half our office time fighting with insurance companies. Private corporations aren't exactly serving the middle class either. We have a $5000 deductable policy and it pops to 10000 for out of network. I remember it was fathead Paulson standing up there threatening to collapse the financial system unless he got a no conditions check for 500 billion. So while the GS boys get their million dollar bonuses for screwing us all up the hind end, we watch business drop by 40% plus. Several of my construction buddies have lost their homes. It was Reagan who dismantled the middle class. Top tax rates during war time have always ranged between 70 and 90%..........and I quote "Traditionally during wartime, taxes have been raised on top incomes to pay the extra costs of war. The estate tax - overwhelmingly paid by wealthy families - was imposed by wartime Republican presidents Abraham Lincoln and William McKinley. It was maintained through World War I, World War II, the Korean War, Vietnam and the Cold War. Now, the estate tax is being phased out, at least until 2011, as part of the tax cut of 2001.

The top income tax rate rose during World War I to 77%. In World War II, it reached more than 90%. In 1953, with the Cold War raging, Republican President Dwight Eisenhower refused to support a Republican move to reduce it. By 1980, it was still way up there, at 70%. Then Ronald Reagan slashed it to 28%, giving us the lowest top tax rate of all modern industrialized nations. Because Reagan kept spending record sums on the military, the federal deficit ballooned. A few years after that, the Berlin Wall came down, ending the Cold War. We congratulated ourselves and then faced the largest budget deficit since World War II.

President Teddy Roosevelt made that case in 1906, arguing that the wartime inheritance tax should continue during peacetime:

"The man of great wealth owes a particular obligation to the state because he derives special advantages from the mere existence of government."

Steve, have you ever thought of running for office? I'd vote for you. In Louisiana, I could vote for you twice.

I have been asked to run for office a number off time on local levels, which is where one must start. I'm a pretty knowledgeable and articulate speaker, so that helps a lot. Every politician I know sticks his finger up before he votes. I worked on one state Assemblyman's campain 4 years ago. He was a good guy with good iddeas who pressed the liberals. He did not get re-elected. He went to Raleigh to change things. Republicans backed his opponent in the next primary. Oh they are great at stating what they will do if they get the majority back, but they are full of crap. Even for a part-time job they want to be re-elected. I know a few state officials. They have no idea what a low opinion we all have of them also. That's why they will torpedo you if you don't work with the other side who you oppose vehemently.

But thanks for the compliment,
Steve

Louisiana and Mississippi have some of the dirtiest politicians and businessmen I've ever seen.

Couldn't agree with you more... Bunch of loons.. One of the best known state NJ ( Joyseee ).. Governed by GS bafoon... Can't wait to go out and vote for Christie..

I hear ya there.

Funny story: I actually received an honorary Colonel's commission in the Alabama state militia from the governor (before he went to prison) lol

I heard that Rhode Island would embarrass you guys.

We have the best politicians that money can buy. Unfortunately its not mine.

Just my experiences with some people in the horse industry running some healthcare scams.......had a direct line to the Miss. governors office.

Hey! Wait a minute, I resemble that remark. And I never touched any Miss in the governor's office. That was behind the barn...

/es clean breakout of the channel. Expecting a retest of the highs, possibly 1090
http://screencast.com/t/Oa66vNzv310

Here's an update on the LR2 trades from last week and some possible gold shorts. Using linear regression going long last Friday made 10% by today.

Watching AEM KGN THM TLR VGZ which are at or near YTD highs.

Inflection Point Update
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/inflection-point-update.html

good point on shorting gold miners.....expecting a nother gap up on AA earnings reaction. watching HUI 448 and cents....probably taken out....my take AEM. tks good site..!!!

If tomorrow's retail sales and jobs numbers don't knock down the futures, I will back off short positions, but I also don't want to go long. Actually, in looking at some key indices, they are almost already overbought. A firm break above 1070 that holds into the end of this week would make me consider scaling into long positions. The bulls might have an edge right now given the futures, the overall trend, etc, but there is some resistance first they have to overcome to prove themselves. I'm amazed at how resilient the market is. It takes a horrific headline to knock down the market 1% and no headline at all for it to rise 1%. I guess the bulls still have control, but I'm waiting to see what happens tomorrow before getting out of the small short positions I have.

It's all about volume... Tomorrow and Friday should have decent volume, and then the real direction will be shown. (Down of course)

ES going nuts tonight. I will be sleeping late on Thursday's gap up. Nighty night. Keep your butt hole tight.

Dollar is getting smoked right now..

Schrillhog, unfortunately I expect the DX to fall to roughly 75.70 before it hits support.

i expect the DX to fall to 45. Hey, why the fuck not. I might move to Mexico there Peso is stronger than our $ lol

Hell, I thought we were there.

Our Gini coefficient of wealth distribution is now the same as Mexico........welcome to another banana republic

Alcoa Q3 earnings report is bullshit.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/1495-Alcoa-Kicks-It-Off-AA.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/slight-discrepancy-alumnium-inventories

This whole market is bullshit but what are you gonna do

Looks like I'm going to get my entries in my time period. Thought it would be today but it looks like AH and tomorrow. Will be shorting from 1060 ES on up. Probably a 1/4 every 5 points or so. Just depends on the action tomorrow. Sorry I can't post during market hours but the road map has worked out so far. I got my wish...you know what they say about that.

A close above 1060 would be bullish, but I just don't see it in the cards. I'm already short at 1060 from yesterday, and will say short until 995-1000 (per my forecast). I believe the jobs number will surprise us all. Things are shifting...

hey faq - do you see a lower during globex 1050 ish for a long play?

FAQ - can you share your roadmap and what you are seeing ...

You want to hear something funny? my Master's program has a portfolio management class where we manage several hundred thousand dollars of the endowment's money.

Today, the class voted to buy XLF.

I was the only person who spoke out and was like wtf are you doing? Sadly, most of the people in the class have no idea how to trade or pick stocks. I guess this mirrors the "average joe" investor/trader out there, buying XLF because (in their words) "financials will go up over the long term". That may be true, but not before they go down 50% (at least) from here lol

Its going to be an "i told you so" moment, and maybe the bitches will learn to respect some basic TA

Wow. That is very similar to a "club" I was in, where we also managed a few hundred thousand of a university's endowment.

And yes, most of the people there had NO idea what they were doing. I eventually left the team before my senior year in college for various reasons. About a year after I graduated or so, I saw their portfolio was down something like 60%. I wasn't surprised at all.

yeah thats basically what we're doing. The biggest diff between our fund and other funds are that we are allowed to use options, futures, and shorting as opposed to the traditional long-only fund.

and I'm just glad I convinced them not to buy UYG hahaha

Voting to manage a portfolio? That is just absurd. They should take the 700,000 and allocate it to small teams that can make decisions. Then you would get some real learning experiences.

Something rubs me the wrong way about investing in a democratic way because the herd is almost always wrong. That's got to be a losing proposition. Out of curiosity how well has this "fund" done with this crew and what did you suggest they do?

well each small group (arbitrage, long term, short term) presents ideas relevant to that strategy and the class takes a vote as a whole. Sadly I'm one of two people in the class who has any clue how to trade/invest. I wrote an entire e-mail to the class with charts & some fundamentals showing why voting to take a long position in XLF is dumb so we'll see if people change their mind.

The idea I came up with this week is short AMZN.... I think the chances of success with that are a bit higher lol. The short term group is going to have to subsidize the entire portfolio's mistakes hahah

Hang in there, time is always needed for truth to reveal itself. Sadly most of use have to slapped hard in the face to come to our senses. Continue to believe in yourself and you will succeed !

I don't get the joke, are you saying they should've voted to buy IYR ? (Sarcasm)

buy FAZ and you could lose it all in a day!

Did anyone ask you to buy FAZ ?

Its simple mate - in bear markets, just buy puts of bloated securities. When it is all said and done... everything and I mean everything including SPY, QQQQ, VIX, SRS, FAZ, TLT will be much much lower than their all time highs. The only thing which will be at an all time high is indifference to the financial markets. I'm not saying anything profound here... its high school math. Good luck to all of us... and bad luck to money managers. Peace out.

I don't listen I just lose money. you mention everything being much lower than all time highs. most still are but I was curious when you think it will be all said and done? how far out do you buy your puts?

Don't forget: initial and continuing claims numbers tomorrow at 8:30am

Also: Wholesale Inventories at 10:00 am

i hope comcast does take over CNBC and then fires that gapped-tooth imbecile rick santelli.

I'd rather have them fire bulltard Larry Kudlow

okay, i'll raise you a jim cramer and disoriented art cashin.
and why not that fat tub-o'-goo mark haines and the blabber mouth mariab.

oh hell: just shut the place down.

I think that if we go flat or break down tomorrow, we could see a push back towards 1020 range by early next week. From there, who knows. I would think some more chop is in order, but likelihood of a new high starts to dwindle as we move through earnings. Earnings is bound to be mixed (but optimism is sky high), Fed cash running dry, gold spiking and presence of numerous mixed technical signals and EWT counts. Unfortunately, this direction seems a little weak to me as todays performance was a little too robust regarding price (volume still stunk - but that has not seemed to deter the rally). The above contrarian indicators I think speaks volumes about what is going to happen at "some point" - but does not yet tip it's hand as to the "top" or the timing of the top.

If we gap up or walk up in the AM tomorrow and sustain through 10 AM, I think the next stop is 1090 by early next week. I would think we will spend a few days at altitude and then pull back later next week (risking calling 1090 range as top here). I think this path is higher probability at this point (said with tear in eye).

Either way, I simply can't image us getting through October on new highs. Of course, it might be a mistake to hold this mantra at this point. It has been the death call for bears up to this point. But, I am not yet convinced to think otherwise. Just hedging in the meantime for now, and staying out of harm's way (avoiding over-trading this shit-storm) except for a few lottery ticket trades just for the fun of it. If we chop into the end of October though, I will for sure be rotating some of my long-term puts out further into 2010.

Well, just some random thoughts for the end of day. Apologies in advance for rambling. Time to go home. Will check in later.

Hey Center, I see my gut instinct was right on (when you asked earlier)

Thanks again Anna. Your gut instinct is simply remarkable compared to mine! Privilaged company for sure

See you tomorrow... one way or another, I think it will be an "interesting" day.

Some options players are manipulating the stock AH. Setting up a trap for the Bulls.

Another huge lot of 353,700 just sold and caused a massive spike down since it went off at 14.20 price, WTF!!

I saw someone say on the AA board that a 863K or so block sold at 14.20 right around the close. Sounds like someone balancing the books AH on the earnings action. Is odd. I admit I do not know enough of how the specialists operate regarding what this action could mean. Does seem funny though.

Haven't been able to get online much so not sure if this chart has been posted here. We're definitely approaching a major inflection point. Love the simplicity.

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_May2009/File/Theal/1009/sg2009100551798.gif

every day higher is another shorting opportunity :)

Or another opportunity to lose money shorting.....

Sounds better.

Quick chart of the Daily SP-500

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/80a7830e-fa4f-47d6-892e-67765e0123af

Joe, I think spx will hit 1070 area tomorrow assuming the backtest line holds and my read on the inside day is correct. If it can push above 1070ish then 1120 would be the next target.

that would be okay,,,, a gap n crap,,, is what we need,,,,a move a little higher than
last weeks high, and a reverse to the down , would turn the weekly chart down,,,,,i went over my turn dates and it's
October 9th to the 12 th....

Signing off for a while need to move the bottom LOL

Just mostly a hunch that AA being a multi-national would really benefit from the weak dollar we have had :) and China has been on fire.

2 huge lots of 353,700 of AA was just sold AH.....

Anna - what made you go long AA ?

your post disappeared anna - but yeah that number was stuck in my head, most likely stole it from you hehe.
were doing pretttttty goood :)

That was the number I used this morning...recent highs :)

This market is officially killing me, and I can't find any words any more to try to console myself or encourage myself.

I think I'm out until there is a definite signal. I try not to scalp or trade too much as I'm not good at it, but recently I think I may have overextended myself and I'm not enjoying it.

Oh wait, its working now... nevermind!

:-)

Futures really moving now.

Spiking up. Looks like the bulls try to take 1070 tomorrow & the last P3 count dies there.

Well that would be relieving in one respect...

Skål!

Thanks for the post Anna...

However, for some reason, I can't expand the first 2 graphs - is there a way to fix that?

cheers!

Just did Audio, my bad (just really tired) :)

im thinking 1063 tomorrow?

We're already there now.

This is amazing. When exceptional items are excluded, the p/e of this thing is > 100. And its up 9%.

Crazy......market futures now moving up.

It's trading at $15.10 now.
-----------
Alcoa (AA): Q3 EPS ex-items of $0.04 beats by $0.13. Revenue of $4.6B (-34%) in-line. Shares halted.
--------
Closed at $14.20

wow glad I went long today on it ;)