The thing that makes me concerned is the fact that we are now well above the 89MA on the weekly which is a critical area...this MA does not usually have throwovers and fakeouts.

you are so right...

Very Interesting Find Here, SPX Weekly pivot in Time Chart,,, Coincidence,,,?

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/f35414e2-5d4b-4d51-8a88-0e6371e0fecb

Joe can you please repost this on new thread, I just updated site :) thanks your little Boo boo

Joe, dumb question, but how do you know yesterday was a pivot already?

i don't , time will tell,

He's not saying for sure that it is/was... he's simply showing a possible time pattern and it's just something to keep an eye on if it were to play out.

Sheila Bair congressional testimony Wednesday:

"The most prominent area of risk for rising credit losses at FDIC-insured institutions during the next several quarters is in CRE [commercial real estate] lending. While financing vehicles such as commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) have emerged as significant CRE funding sources in recent years, FDIC-insured institutions still hold the largest share of commercial mortgage debt outstanding, and their exposure to CRE loans stands at an historic high. As of June, CRE loans backed by nonfarm, nonresidential properties totaled almost $1.1 trillion, or 14.2 percent of total loans and leases."

Citi stinking up the place. This could be an interesting day after all.

Can we ask these government beaurocrats to limit themselves to like 2 reports per morning? Especially with a complex one like CPI there's a lot of stuff to go through.

(Used the sneak-a-cup feature on the coffee maker for this one.)

If you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, baffle 'em with bullshit... or bury them in so many reports and numbers that nothing can be figured out.

Good morning, never posted here before, just been lurking around. I noticed something very interesting yesterday looking over my charts. On the SPX 1 hr chart I had drawn a fib retrace from the gap start on 10/7/09 (1057.58) to the high on 10/12/09 (1079.56) to look for a good resistance line if the 1079.56 high was broken. The 161.8% retrace was touched but not pierced on both SPX and SPY. I am going to use this as my entry to go short, at least for the short term w\ Dec PUTS. I may hedge with a couple NOV calls if that line in the sand is pierced with authority.

Good odds to short GBPUSD

http://www.screencast.com/t/QGcIqMKlm

No way im gonna put in front of that train!

Were up almost 300pips since yesterday and 600 from tuesday.

Hey Onorio,
we certainly can still go up more, but we are 3 days up straight, so it's likely to have some pull back here, and then we may see more upside.
And if you look at our RL frequency table, the next level 1.6435 looked far.
So the current price level is a good starting level to try some shorts.
Maybe we can wait for the end of the day.
Cheers

FWIW, news radio this morning was putting a seriously cynical spin (the truth actually) on DOW 10,000 and the GS earnings. They were all off about 10% unemployment, rising CRE defaults, and rising foreclosures. They were pretty straightforward also about Wall Street doing great at the expense of the Fed, but none of it reaching Main Street where small businesses still don't see a recovery and can't even get a loan to survive.

Very cool. My tinfoil hat tips to talk radio this morning. Nicely done. The cracks in the dam are beginning to show.

Now, quick question. GS makes tons of money in bond trading this quarter. And LQD is jumping the tracks now. Related? Unwinding positions for the inevitable leg down because the impending currency crisis (which was the vehicle used to hijack the market)? or is it time to upgrade the tinfoil for some medication...

Oh we found out late last week and this one what the LQD trend break meant! LQD served as a leading indicator of a similarly dramatic breakdown in Treasuries.

I'll post updated "pairs charts" for LQD and HYG this weekend. Right now I'm trying to digest all this data. Offhand I think my TIPs aren't going to have a great day today...

You are talking about TLT as well correct? bond quality?

I might be wrong of course, but I am looking all of this as the leading edge of the currency crisis where the bond market becomes seriously unattractive. At that point, the FED will seriously run out of options. Strengthening the dollar, raising rates, etc. will be the only serious options - and all could work contrary to equities. The other tip-off is a run in gold (check) and move of money into commodities (looking up).

Sound reasonable?

(thanks for the reply / information, by the way).

Yes - but TLT isn't best compare for LQD and HYG because the maturities/durations are very different. Proper comparison is to mid-maturity Treasury ETFs, this is what the popular media always misses.

(Thinking my next "everything" options spread will involve interest rates in fact. Still got to work out timing and targets and such.)

Silver bounce @ 17.35 arround 38% retrace from 15.9 to 18.10 move. This might be the start of the final 5th wave, this also sugests that EUR might bounce from here.

50% retrace is arround 17, i will go long if we get there.

dollar going red again I think today we see some consolidation before finally filling that stupid gap, then on the way down we have some juicy gaps to fill.

?? Gaps down on the USD? Gaps down on the SPX? Gaps up on the USD? It's been a long week. Be gentle with us stupid sheep. More clarity, please. ;-)

Hey g, we got gaps all over the place don't we...LOL
new thread dollar chart up

Good morning

Morning Anna,
What area would you be looking for that gap fill? Thanks. There are quite a few of them.

I feel that short term we will fill up to 1121 area. (we may have some consolidation first)

Erm....I see maybe some sideways action then pullback and resume rally in 1-2 weeks time.....However, due to the fact that there is so many gap ups....I do not discount the possibility to go higher....

GM Big Eye :)

Good morning "cutiepie" ;)

Did anyone see the EMPIRE manufacturing index at 34ish vs 17 expected? This is NY mfg, no? Market seems to have recovered some.

Yup 34.57 versus 17.25 consensus, 18.88 last month for the New York Fed's Empire Manufacturing report.

With Monday's bank holiday we get a double dose today: Philly Fed's Business Outlook at 10AM.

The consensus on the Philly Fed is 12.5 and the prior reading was 14.1. If the economy is getting so much better, why aren't the estimates somewhere above the prior report?

Is the scale on the manufacturing report that anything below 50 is contraction? I can't keep track of all the values.

In answer to my own question, no, below 50 does not mean contraction.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/Empire2009/empiresurvey_20091015.html

Iggy GM :)

General Motors to you as well Princess.

8:33 AM Sept. CPI: +0.2% vs. +0.4% last month and +0.1% consensus. Core CPI +0.2% vs. +0.1% last month and +0.1% consensus. Consumer prices are down 1.3% vs. last year, while core prices are up 1.5%.

8:31 AM Jobless Claims: 514K vs. 524K last week (revised) and 515K consensus. Continuing claims falls to 5.991M from 6.067M. Comment!

8:30 AM Oct. Empire State Mfg Survey: 34.57 vs. 18.88 last month and 19 expected. Employment index jumps to 10.4 from -8.3 last month. New orders surges to 30.8 from 19.8.

8:31 AM Jobless Claims: 514K vs. 524K last week (revised) and 515K consensus. Continuing claims falls to 5.991M from 6.067M. Comment!

------------------------------------

Well if unemployment is still rising but continuing claims are falling, it can only mean one thing. People who are more than x months out of work, have exhausted their benefits and do not hit the continuing claims stats.

Shhhhh, that's a secret. Nobody is supposed to realize that. The numbers will look spectacular the next 2-3 months when the biggest chunk of folks fall off the back end.

Implies higher likelihood of future defaults (credit cards, housing, etc.).

greenspan spouting words of "wisdom"

If EUR/USD is on a impulsive down move, this move should stop arround 1.4820 followed by a retrace to at least 1.49, at that point i might add some shorts for a possible ride to 1.47

Was just some weakness on Trichet expectations and then his speech. He said that there should be less volatility in the EUR which I think is code for it's going up too much. lol!

Im still waiting for 1.5030/50 for EUR top, but i wouldnt be admired if 1.4970 was the top.

Either way, i need to see some clear impulsive down move to step in the short side.

I've seen a shorter term call for shorting EUR around 1.490 to covr at 1.47ish with 1.494 as the stop. this was earlier this AM by Sostratos FX daily strategy.




________________________________

If it helps from low of Oct 2/09 to high the 38 fib is at 1.4784 area....may be a good place to see bounce.

Could this be the island reversal we've been waiting for?

EUR flipped over to red. I don't think we will see a pop into green for ES and SPX into the open. I think yesterday took a lot out of the bulls and that some kind of retrace is due. This is tempered by tomorrow being OPEX - but I'll bet that there are a lot more CALLs outstanding than Puts. The option specialists may have something to say about headwinds for the SPX.

I figured if they closed near the highs yesterday that we'd need to pull back a little this morning. Liking
the weakness in Gold and Silver this morning.

Pre-Market warm up

Nothing much to say about yesterday that hasn't been done to death. The SPX did get stopped by the upper Bollinger on the daily chart. Nice gap below between 1073 and 1079 that needs to be closed at some point before moving up. TD Waves says we have gone high enough to complete the 5 wave up, or C wave of ABC down, and that whenever this wave finishes, we can head lower.
My MBS math from the weekend (what a coincidence that it is on the minds of the FED as well) says that, based on Pareto's rule of 80/20, that SPX=1122 is a mathematical target for the remaining MBS purchases. It's only math.

Equity
Asia was green - especially Japan. Europe is green - but not much more than 0.4% at best. Trichet speaks in about 2 minutes (as I type).
CPI was unchanged on the EUR - and still negative.
Given the run up in the DOW, one could be surprised of the lack of follow on in other markets (except Japan). However, the markets are tired. Manipulation is getting harder - just look at the grind into the close yesterday. The heavy lifting has been done, and at the margin, there isn't much more fire power in the FED's arsenal. Bonds sold off - which means that the vigilantes are now starting to come back. It will be tough to keep placing Tbills at low interest rates, with the USD touted by GS to go to 1.55. I wonder what Trichet will have to say on this.

ECB officials are making noises about the economy has bottomed and the situation is stabilizing. Not sure if anyone believes this given the hidden rot in European banks that is supposed to be worse than the US financial system.

FX
DXY /USD is still weak but positive, with the CAD, JPY, EUR all weaker. GBP is stronger - go figure. Flight to garbage?

EUR peaked up around 1.497 overnight and then began the slow fall, with a small pop before the CPI data. I think Europe has had enough. Even though they say that JPY strength is more of an issue than USD weakness, I think that this is just hiding their real thoughts. I don't think that the ECB will stand for a EUR at or above 1.50 for very long.
Pivots are:

R2: 1.5012
R1: 1.4969 - tried to get there twice from 1:30 - 2:15AM EDT but smacked down by heavy selling at 1.4965. Spent most of the night tracking the lower Bollinger as it headed down.
Neutral: 1.4904 - just went through this without a thought in the last half hour. Testing lower TD resistance now.
S1: 1.4861 - We'll probably get here
S2: 1.4796 - just above a lot of support from yesterday afternoon post FOMC minutes.

<news< b="">
GS, C, yaddah yaddah yaddah. ES down about 5 points since GS reported - those whisper numbers will kill you every time. DAX down as well.
Eurozone prices fell in September - probably to be expected given EUR strength and the effect on raw inputs priced in USD.
The GBP is supposed to be up because BOE may pause the asset-purchase program (not so the US, eh BenDover?).

Data
Beware the ides of October. Today we see the CPI and Jobless claims at 8:30
Looks like unchanged expectations from the previous period in CPI for both MoM and YoY.
Same for Jobless claims.
10AM Pilly Fed number = 12 exp versus 14.1 prior. Guess this is some kind of economic activity number, not sure?

SPX
There is no doubt that the long term trend line from the SPX peak has been breached. I'm not sure what this means because I have a hard time believing this level on the volume we're seeing. There must be a small country worth of people waiting to short above 1100.
I think we have seen the best of the news and that it is ALL in the market. It can only trend down from here. If GS beating didn't excite, then even Angelina, Scarlet, and Jessica (biehl?) couldn't get a rise out of it today.

ES pivots
ES went Nowhere overnight - back and forth in a range of 4 - 6 points or so. Not what one would expect if the entire world had decided it was being left behind in the markets and rushing in with trillions from money market funds (what a joke - household wealth is down considerably over the last two years, market notwithstanding, and you can be sure that the MMKT money is for an emergency - not to throw away at a possible peak in equities).

Pivots:
R2: 1100.42 - bull fantasy today
R1: 1094.08 - Well above the overnight
Neutral: 1083.42 - Just below TD support, and where we're bouncing. Looks like this was both resistance and support yesterday up until 3PM.
S2: 1077.08
S1: 1066.42 - bears fantasy today.


EUR just bounced off of it's first support pivot - so I think it will be back and forth between 1.486 and 490 for the next while. ES will probably do the same sort of thing until the data is released. I think the move down after GS may have caught a lot of people off guard and there is now uncertainty heading into the data points at 8:30. Watch out for volatility and head fakes then.

Cheers.</news<>

Nice review as always. Regarding the long term trendline from the SPX peak - if you draw it from the peaks of the candles (and not from the bodies), we do not appear to have breached that one just yet. We need to get the $SPX above 1124 for that to happen.

Depends if you take May 2008 as an overthrow or a touch. I have it as an overthrow to hit more points with the trend line. You may be right. Trend lines are almost as pernicious as EW. lol.




________________________________

I drew another trend line at your suggestion. Not as many touches - but gives a warmer fuzzy to the bear in me. I'm still keeping the old line, though - just to keep my bearish exhuberance in check.

Thanks.

Thanks Gmak, I am doing a chart to post up top on SPY. We definitely have an inverse H&S, which had broken out (yesterday) I am looking for SPX to definitely hit 1100 area, possibly 1121 before we have a sizeable retracement. So I am looking for the jobless claim this am. and then Google this afternoon
That always a rush, because I have skin in that one...allot :)

Did you scalp any EUR? Or staying away and playing in JPY?

I stepped away from FX for a bit, I would have gone long last night usd/JPY but didn't stay up late enough. LOL

You should have gone long GBP/USD yesterday A! Quite a ride since yesterday morning...

Morning O, did you have a nice ride? :)

I wish i did...

you and I both :) trying to build my own blog (options) take care of Mole's blog while he is gone and trade, chart, ect...
I have to focus on too manyt things and that isn't good when trading currencies you need to be on top of them. :)

First draft is up. Will have to customize header, etc...

Not at all things... some things I like to take my time on. He He He

LOL ;)

Goldman Sucks to hand out 11.4 Billion in bonuses... that's $773,000 per employee! The rest of America is losing their jobs or taking pay cuts. We're going into the Great Depression Two, and these crooks are celebrating! What's wrong with this picture?

http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/14/news/companies/goldman.pay.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009071514

Yeah, if that doesn't make the Average Joe's blood boil and storm the building then I pray for you Americans...

Morning Inna, it does it does, I have dreams about nuking them all :)

Hi Anna,

what is your short term target for GOOG. Is it 550 and above? Looking at long term charts, it has the potential to go to 585.

TIA

Hey Pra, I am doing a chart right now, http://tinyurl.com/yggvhl2

556.26 short term next RL is 629.25 (which some analyst have called for :)

always welcome

Thank you Anna :-)

I redid chart, it's early (LOL) I have a short term target of 553. and longer term I actually have 629.25
http://tinyurl.com/yggvhl2

Thank you once again.

always welcome :)

I think Ms. Market is pissed at the GS bonuses....

I think so too, but I doubt the retracement will last very long, due to the gap yet to fill once that is over that is our chance to strike :)

Good plan..

:-D

Good morning Red, I wouldn't mind putting all the old investment bank and regional banks in one pile and lighting a bonfire. LOL

I'd be happy to lend you some gasoline to help keep the fire going.

Hahahah okee let's hold hands and do it together :)

Let's burn them at the stake like they did Nicolas Cage in the movie called "The Wicker Man"

I am with ya :) btw Hotoptionsbabe.com with a "s"

ps I heard you, you scared me yesterday hahahahah

Seems to have been good for the dollar, bad for stocks, oil and gold. I really think most people secretly expected $6 or so from Goldman to support a $200 share price. At $5, thats an annualised p/e of 10, not excessive except when you consider all the free money they'e had this year. Where is the underlying business going to be when TARP, POMO, TALF, and all the other stuff is pulled? Do they need another 50% rally in the markets and commodities to sustain this type of performance?

not sure the bulltards will give the 10k up easily...not yet..at least one more push to really stuff joe p in...

Goldman beats by $1.01 but I think people will (no matter what the estimates officially were) be disappointed considering the amount of tailwinds they've ahd in the last quarter.

Meredith could have made a good call here.

Nokia misses also, reports global phone demand down 7% in 09.

Good is the new bad.

trichet speaks at 7:25AM EDT.

Weeee, markets nice drop! And they say volatility's dead. :D

Silver is getting hamered, glad i dump my longs at 17.90.

I expect some kind of irregular correction to the 17.30 area, then i will load longs again for the final ride to 18.30/50.

EUR just traded right to the pivot and bounced off -- regular pivot, not Persons -- crazy how those things nail it to the pip. Everything might bounce into the open now... meh. Was a nice short on eur while it lasted! (R1 overhead to main pivot, overbought to oversold, etc)

Yeah, they can be very accurate, whatever they are called. :)

DAX has one too at the 5.823 area.

>Everything might bounce into the open now... meh

Banks still holding their own pretty good so I agree with that.

I was ignorant but I am still being told that there is going to be havoc in the markets over a short period. eeeek!

I dont know the date, but it is close, I am not here to make people panic, just to warn you all.

It will be a very fast fall, thats what I am being told. SO look out. Will be a violent drop, and surpise many.

Metals will fall big time, even though the media are saying gold will keep going up, it will down the line, but we are about to see some big losses in all metals....BEWARE, and stocks will get hammered also.

I need time to think & rest, and get my put options in order and go look at my charts. It has been a big day. Hope I have helped you.

Good luck, the pied piper is coming with his flute. Hope you are ready.

Hi jester. Can you elaborate on the credibility of the person who told you this, the likely timing or catalysts?

Ex trader with connection within our family base. He warned me two weeks before the market crashed in 08 so i thought I better shut up and listen.

I have been awake 24 hours watching markets....i need some rest.... time will tell if he is right. I just know he was right about last time.....hmmmm

Sterling strength probably explains the weakness in the FTSE

With volume......could this be a capitulation ?

Hey Croozer - that was a spectacularly inept cable forecast from me yesterday - I hope you had a stop

FAIL.

I guess the 1.60 area was kind of important after all. It isn't out of the woods yet, still needs to break the downtrend channel from 1.70 area.

Same with Euro, resistance 149.50 tested - held nice. So far, anyway.

http://screencast.com/t/ynUqU7Aww

This could be "it" but somehow I thought it would be even more. The middle of the night play....how appropriate for our new financial and governmental overlords.

Sterling gone to the moon vs Dollar......

Don't know if anyone's tracking but the FTSE and the DAX are off their highs.....don't know if they're simply looking for more of a cue from the US or if this is a reversal.......Falling fairly quickly too.

FTSE and DAX close to their highs. Not sure what are you seeing.

I'm sticking with downside for tomorrow and Friday, still. If not, I can scalp away and make up lost ground until the reckoning comes. It's coming, right? (right)
http://screencast.com/t/KS0t2BhMpBwq

/DX really light volume... hoping EUR drops its major TL (we're bouncing off it now, I believe) http://screencast.com/t/VysEZRdGd

closeup of EUR: http://screencast.com/t/IFiN2WSE2A

SPX from earlier tonight - the 133.3 (sigh) returns: http://screencast.com/t/KbC4860QYZt

Aaaaaand my EW roadmap for anyone who didn't see it earlier...
http://screencast.com/t/scr1ojCwb

Long week of scalping... sigh -- thus far 27 for 34 successful scalps with four additional breakeven exits (so 27 for 38 to be precise).

LOL...

Good stuff PRS and thanks for the laugh. ;)

My levels of trading sophistication are none too high. I use Person's pivots, a variety of simple indicators, tea-leaves and lots and lots of luck, but I too believe that a pullback is in order.

But first I expect another run up, for the DAX to 5926-5950 area, for the Dow to 1070-10100.

Just scalped /6e -- 2 more successes and i'm off to bed. Why person's? I use regular pivots and never really checked the difference...

often it's as easy as getting in touch with RSIWilder divergences on variety of timeframes and being patient. I love countertrend trading... so much more fun and I believe it makes a better trader of you as you are forced to see the traders making mistakes from which one can profit, rather than try to just stick with the trend. Sure, it's easier -- but countertrending exposes so many fundamental weaknesses of the average trader that it's quite eye opening.

Have a good night -- bedtime now finally! My EUR post was rather timely... bounced right off that lower TL (grabbed a few pips long). We'll see if we base out around daily low (1.4920 or so) which was previous resistance yesterday, maybe rally up a bit and test 1089 again...

>Why person's?

No particular reason. Just something that works for me with in a certain frame. Countertrading myself works well too. :D

Sleep well.

Thanks, that's interesting viewing........the EURUSD chart's an interesting contrast to what's happening with the GBP.........that's going the other way entirely unless it's about to reverse soon

Do you sleep...or are you keeping musicians' hours?

Steve

Was up all last night (not that productive, gunshy of a few setups... grrr).
Slept for 1.5 hrs today during lunch and am gonna crash for 3 hrs now,
check the 830 econ data release, sleep for another hour, and trade tomorrow
for a full day. Not a healthy schedule but somehow i manage. Now i just
need to convert the market knowledge i've acquired into really profitable
latenight hours instead of just... more... work hours... only these are 2-5
am EST. Blah.
Sleep will happen when volatility isn't present -- oh wait, there's a setup
-- I'm on it...
also, oddly enough I hardly play the guitar much anymore (but was just
plucking on my acoustic before I sat down and saw this).

I'll be honest, though, I think I could make a decent living scalping /6e
and /es overnight based on what i see. The regular market action is harder
for me to read, oddly enough... it seems like one can catch two divergent
pushes on /6e (or eur/usd, just nice to also have volume of contracts traded
as an added layer of info) in either direction for a good 10-20 pip scalp if
not more per night.

What do you trade predominantly?

>10 years to get back to 10,000!

The only difference is, we needed 30 ounces of Gold to buy the Dow back then, now we need 10.

something strange in the air today...you can feel it....

some refraction trades aint working..... so like i said...there is a strange linger in the air.

not long now till the inevitable.

"oscar" video for Thursday. Bullish on Euro, bullish on S&P, DJIA target 10150 by Friday.

http://www.youtube.com/futuresanalysts#p/u

"Stops Are In . . . Emotions Are Out !!!"

Even a small rise in interest rates now will send stocks into a downward spiral.....

Fixed income folks are extremely aware of the 0 interest rates and low dollar and they are getting more and more desperate. Then they watch the ever-rallying stockmarket these days and wonder, hey why am I not part of that.

Sadly, once enough of them pile on, the carpet will be pulled.

No escape.

I just wonder what the trigger will be......

I just want to again go on record as saying I think this IS the divergent push in the /DX lower -- we rock hard from here or near here (75ish bottom?) to scorch the dollar bears. Seeing money flows divergently flowing 'less' out on this push than ever before, and we're lower -- recipe for dollar disaster (in the OTHER direction!).

Hence why I'm keeping my shorts somewhat composed...

http://screencast.com/t/ynUqU7Aww

GBP USD action, while everyone is sleeping, I havent checked the other big ones.

Sorry -- also, the GBP trade looks decent, i think diagonal TLs extended into space make for great reversal targets (like what I just posted re: EUR/USD).

FX really does play nice with technicals for the most part. Pleasant order in an unpleasingly spike-ridden world... (well, until you get a 40 pip ramp job... FX, TA-based trading until something wacky comes along and blows everyone out of trades left and right... such is the game...)

aaaaand this -- just now EUR/USD long?

http://screencast.com/t/amJtmbQRGx

that trend line bounced us last time (where i caught my last trade long on the light divergence) - take it if you want it, im off to bed... sheesh... always something going on!

And -- if EUR gets under 1.492 for a while and stays there beware. The long aint gonna work -- lots of sequential pressure building up to the downside... dont get caught in a slaughter if it shows weakness and fails to regain 1.492... (just my warning since i threw the trade out there, and it appears to be weak already as i type this)

I've got to agree with you. I see DXY headed to 75.15 to 75 before we see even a potential set up for a reversal. MACD set up is similar to late April, when it dropped from ~85.20 to ~78.33 before reversing.

BTW has Prophet assigned a symbol to DXY yet?

So you think a lower dollar will actually cause stocks to fall too.....I don't disagree, I think it's all about timing. Also, are you saying that you think the dollar is ready to reverse close to 75ish or do you think it will continue to push lower still.

Selling things priced in used toilet paper makes them worth... well... shitpaper. Eventually the correlation will allow for either a dollar rally and equities to correct or, sadly, both to fall in unison as capital leaves the risk markets entirely in the US.

A little over the top, but you get my point.

I think both falling is highly probable at some point if nothing is done about the falling USD and ever increasing money supply at no cost. The Fed saying on one hand that the recession is over but interest rates need to remain near 0 is just insane. Just surprised investors can't see this.

>So you think a lower dollar will actually cause stocks to fall too

I've seen something similar happen to bonds this summer. At some point the market ceased to react with joy at their breathtaking drop, instead, it panicked. One the yields leveled off everything was alright again.

I agree, this is an important area for the dollar.

Gold price has been flat/down the past two days even though the Euro has gone up? Another divergence, imo.

Dollar continuing to get hammered.....in a descending wedge....coming to the apex...IF the USD remains weak at the US equity market open.....the indices will fly.

They will fly UNTIL it return to a longer term relationship where a lower dollaar means people don;t think the economy isn't doing well and stocks tank when the dollar drops. Look at Aug 2007-July 2008.

Steve

Are you Ned who actually got an avatar? Just asking

No not Ned......

OK sorry, just had to ask...haven't been on the blogs lately.

Black Monday, October 19, 1987

I'm trying out some new fibonacci and cycle methods. Based on these methods, the next pivots are as follows:

~1104 -- likely to be achieved within days
~1121 -- likely to be achieved around Oct 28th-30th

At present I'm just tracking this system -- it's all based on fib expansions/parallels and expansion cycles. Don't put too much stock into, not that anyone would. :)

From looking at a number of people whose business is in cycles, for the last few months they have been the road to perdition.

Steve

The 1121 appears on the fib clustering but also of note is the 1134 level, which is a square of nine value -- perhaps to be achieved in November.

I'm watchin that 1130-1135 also... most talk about 1120-21 but I think we peak above that briefly
and quickly. Think it happens no later than the first week of Nov. I'm expecting heavy selling in Nov.

fwiw: imho, the two dominant dates for october and november are 10/30 and 11/16. 10/26 and 11/3 are also of interest. as to Price, i am still convinced we will see SPX 1229 before an easy "sell".

comments and views welcomed.

Hi, newbie question. I've just read Trend Following by Covel and believe it is the best method for absolute returns, vs. what I have done for the majority of 20 years -- buy and hold. I am looking at subscribing to one of the services provided, and could use some direction. My experience is 20+ years with stocks and options, no futures, and my ideal trading range is days to weeks.

It seems Zero is probably the best fit, but I am soliciting opinions. Also, if there is any other data related to the programs other than the website such as manuals and historical data, any info is appreciated!

Zero is daytrading, not sure that is trendfollowing, only on a very short scale.

$VIX has a red open candle at the close today. It appears to be the largest since March "09, get ready for the biggest drop since this rally started. Another point of interest would be the opening and closing 1 minuite volume of the DJI. (15 million to open and 25 million to close after a gap opening), this usually occurs on Friday of OPX week. If the big boys had their sale today, we're going to be left holding the bag tomorrow and thereafter. GL

Good eye! In the past yr this is the 6th open red $VIX daily candle, each of the past has been followed by at least 5 days of consequent selling. Jan 1st of the year being a good example. Could take a day to kick in, or not at all.

SPX 133.3... you know it's back...
http://screencast.com/t/KbC4860QYZt

Green dotted line is the 133.3... that's at 1100 and rising starting tomorrow by this chart... updates later

I really like your 1.33 extension lines for channels. Todays candle preceded by the doji on Tuesday may go in the opposite direction after Thursday or reverse and not breakout any further. This is what I see, but like you the trend has been calling me a fool for not following. As of now I'm leaning to an unprecedented drop in the next week, due to todays $VIX close as an open red candle.

With you there. Long for a small scalp now on /es but I suspect we'll deuce a bit back towards 1070 at LEAST by next monday. Willing to get called a fool; just don't like losing money...

thanks for the 133% compliments, I hope it is a useful tool for others -- as I often point out, I have no blog and no reason for needing credit, so use it at your discretion and experiment with it -- I have a feeling 150% extensions also work well but are rather far away to give a reasonable ambush counter-directional play stop area (beyond which, if violated, we bail...ie, outside the 133).

We've surpassed many on this last little push since 1020. I think its a useful tool when you have an extended channel that breaks one way but meagerly -- with not enough credibility to trust a breakout, the 133.3 gives an ambush reversal target for reliable measuring.

Good luck to you!

If you have a chance take a look at $VIX close today. Note especially the solid black candles and the hollow red candles going back to March of this year.See Stockcharts chart if you don't have one.You will be suprised how this keeps you on the rite side of the market and allows you to pocket the coin. My reversal short term rests on this indicator, which has not been working well for most people. See it to believe it. GL

Nothing like a 10 year trading range, we've seen this before though! Reminds me of the Dow 36,000 book Tim posted on SOH http://bit.ly/17OWmA

Dow Jones Daily Chart,,,,,,,,,Negative Divergence .

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/248423b3-2a1b-4795-bf18-cc90520faa1f

Joe if you look at the peaks in July / Aug they had the same divergence that did not play out ... here the RSI has not curved down, so it could move higher with prices ... am I seeing this right ?

yes . it did not turn down,, but it is trailing behind price,,big time...