Earnings Galore

Anna here Again

Well so far the earnings have come in mixed. Today i feel we chop around waiting for Google to report, a huge event. That will either give us a chance to retrace or shoot us on up to new highs. Nasdaq has along with financials been leading this tape.

Here is a chart on Google Earnings out today after the bell.

Here is a chart by my good friend Nummy on the Dollar looks short term like we have more downside and I think it’s possible we could see a 70 handle on the old greenback longer term. When are they going to run out of GREEN INK !!!!

And just for fun, another bear costume I like in pink

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 15th, 2009 at 9:19 am and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

bergs

Geez Anna

Gone for the day and you still can't get this sucker to go down. All this market does is go up. Speaking of up, loving the pic's. Should sue for "drool" damage to the keyboard though!

big pic

http://screencast.com/t/tugaudd2ev

little pic

http://screencast.com/t/Ob0RoRgCX9T

disclaimer: This is an assumed count and of course is subject to change. So if I change it do not post how erratic Elliott analysis is. I think even the boys at EWI have backed off on showing counts. This is the highest probability count I can see at this point. If it is indeed the end of P2 so be it. If it turns out to be C of D,E so be it. To tell the truth in my minds eye ,sure looks like fumes.
I always have deferred my trading to what Mole posts. He has been spot on. Better then the EWI boys.

See Anna it is those pictures made me say all that.
AS2009

Bergs ... we don't need disclaimers :) ... we all know you do your best !! +1 !!
Anna

NEW POST ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤
standard_and_poor

Here are the short term trades from last two days I was too lazy to report, these
trades were ok, some will surely be dogs :

Date Action Symbol % of portfolio Gain Days Held

Yesterday at 2:05PM (EST) Bought CAST 0.98% N/A 1

Yesterday at 9:45AM (EST) Bought TSTC 0.99% N/A 1

Yesterday at 9:45AM (EST) Bought SPRD 1.01% N/A 1

Yesterday at 9:45AM (EST) Bought CNTF 1.01% N/A 1

Yesterday at 9:30AM (EST) Bought KONG 1.01% N/A 1

Oct 13, 2009 Sold EGHT 2.15% 5.36% 4

Oct 13, 2009 Sold THLD 2.86% 18.18% 4

Oct 13, 2009 Sold FSII 2.05% 3.14% 4

Oct 13, 2009 Sold DIGA 1.80% -8.80% 4
Trader_Steve

Would you please stop!

You think your trades are important, and timed down to the minuted) because?

Or is this to show us you leared how to use a spreadsheet?

Sheesh,
Steve

P.S. When I'm not "warmongering" I get up and sometimes echange e-mails with a few Marines I know in Afghanistan if they are online. I didn't catch any this morning. Oh, and they said you are welcome for the safety they provide to you.
faafa

NYT Update | 3:59 p.m. Falcon Heene was not found in the balloon, and now officials say there is a possibility that Falcon might be hiding in his Fort Collins neighborhood, in fear of recriminations.
elliott_surfs

It's a shame he wasn't inside - woulda been a great story at 6 years old ;)
bsummertime

google hugging the 540 pin. largest o.i. on calls
Osso

IBM down......!!!!!
Bart7

goog beat, spy 109.75 now...
ds2

Makes sense, people w/o jobs search the net to find one - clicking ads along the way.
LogansRun

So ad spending will do down when the economy is good and people don't have to search for jobs?
innatedc

GOOG just flew...
dreadwin

I've been watching IYR closely the last day or two. Went long DRV (3x inverse) at 18.50 for a short-term trade.
Joe8888

109.69 we got GAP FILL....now tell mr Market ,,,take foot off the Gas,,,,
AudioTactics

Here's what I think, big picture:

We just broke through the 1080 level which had the potential to be a double-top. This is very bullish.

Even though I would like to be short right now, I think you need to be patient.

If the market pulls back to 1080 and it holds, it would be a buy. If it pulls back and breaks 1080 support, its a sell.

If you want to sell, I would wait for the top of the channel defined by a trend line touching the highs of the past 3 months roughly. That area depending on how quickly we get there is 1120 - 1150 or so...

That is my unbiased view of things as I have no position right now.
AudioTactics

Correction:

I mispoke... The channel I was referring to is defined by a trend line touching the highs of the past week or so (dating back to 10/6). This implies that we could be much closer to a potential pull-back than I originally mentioned and that the level could be 1,100 and possibly reached tomorrow.
dreadwin

Similar thoughts here. I'm expecting a short term pullback -- I am watching IYR with a first target of 41.90 (gap fill), second target 41.43 (gap fill).
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

not a bad comment, waves can truncate on 5
AudioTactics

Cheers! =)

What does "waves can truncate on 5" imply?

I'm not much of an E-Waver...
Stainless_Steel_Hamster

a failure, does not go beyond 3 in values
TheMacroEconomist

On a 5-wave impulsive pattern up or down, a truncated 5th or failure means the 5th wave does not surpass the 3rd. It implies that the sentiment in the direction of the impulse is weak and acceleration in the opposite direction should follow.

5th waves can also extend, when the sentiment in the direction of the impulse is strong.
Joe8888

We are going up...

Do we now fill Gap....?
humblestudent88

I only watch a couple of big bank financials and miners. Buy imbalance on financials today, looks more than short covering.
gmak

Yep. Gaming on the EUR as well. low volume pop on the futures. Can't be anything else but at this time. Now begins the slow grind up to 1098 on the SPX.
fa_q

Hola from Mexico. Ahh, nothing like the sweet smell of drawdown to put a damper on a beautiful Mexican beach day. I have some rickety internet service so I won't be able to do much. But all of the ES levels that I mentioned got hit to sell, 1080, 1085, 1090. Pretty nuts. So I'm short 1.5x at 1074 ES. Yeah, that's technically over a full position but I have some house money. The NQ is still the same, I think about down 20 pts or so. I know some people like to know when I add or subtract - so, there you go. Nothing like setting orders, waking up hungover and finding them filled. No equity positions although if IYR fails and falls under its mid Bollinger I will hit that if I'm around and I can log on. Other than that I'm off to the local pharmacia to see if they have Vaseline in this country. This is like reverse tourista! Good luck.
BigIslandLife

must be why he needs the Vaseline for that cannonball chaf taht is swinging between his legs LOL
mmTesla

Try the Hornintos it is delicious
Guest

1.5x your normal position ahead of IBM and GOOG earnings! Yowza, you have cannonballs swinging between your legs! I hope it works out. I am short too and scared.
PRSGuitars

Glad to hear it -- enjoy the sun and cerveza. With you on the large short -- seeing all sorts of reasons to effectively play a reversion trade (towards 1040, 1050 at least) here. Chaos. We're 30 pts from 1120 and 30 pts from 1060 -- wasnt it just yesterday that we were there?

Be safe, enjoy your time, fa_q... take it easy bud
PRSGuitars

TK is getting pretty short over at SOH -- we'll see how the AH and tomorrow plays out... but i suspect we're on the right path...

SPX grinding higher in recent channel, bouncing off the midline to upside still... EOD?

http://screencast.com/t/XYFcpyJgo
Trader_Steve

I'm not seeing your avatar, mine, and a number of others. I think anna wants only her own here...yeah, that's the ticket!

Steve
humblestudent88

Thank you for your charts, and all others' charts. I have to reply to you again, I am still learning how to reply via Disqus.

Recently, every time I looked at $DXY, this came to my mind,
"How much wood would a woodchuck chuck?"
Today is the first day that $DXY was not beaten to the lowest over all time zones during EST.
PRSGuitars

Absoutely -- huge volume overnight early on and now light play meandering sideways?

Ask any questions you may have -- we're all happy to help.
humblestudent88

Recently, every time I looked at $DXY, this came to my mind,
"How much wood would a woodchuck chuck?"
Today is the first day that $DXY was not beaten to the lowest over all time zones during EST.
Bart7

kid wasn't aboard the balloon...
faafa

I pray he wasn't....

Edit: That didn't come out right. Thought you meant to say he wasn't aboard to begin with, hence my reply. Still holding my breath for good news.
Joe8888

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

SPY 10 min

A close below yesterdays high ,,,is baby steps in the right direction,,,
faafa

Nice call on SDS, Joe. But given your SPY 10 min, you knew that... :-)
Joe8888

They could pop this back up in no-time,,,but i had enough,,, i bought them back,,, we never did get 100% gap fill , we came close 109.62

Maybe they spike back up and fill,,, we will see,,,
berkshire

Hey buddy. Definitely did not see that chart from earlier. QUITE intriguing. I am expecting a drop at any point too, just haven't been feeling it lately.

But that chart gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. Thanks.

Skål!
Joe8888

Thanks Berk ,wanted your feedback on it,,,,Cheers

What i Love about that chart,is how Price and Time Meet at the Cross Roads....Amazes Me all the Time,,
Trader_Steve

In the anals of trading history, is 6/100th missing the fill and is that ever a gap in size that traders have spoken about filling?

Steve
gmak

"Anals" is the right word. You might have meant annals, but anals is definitely better given the size of the miss. lol.
Trader_Steve

Freudian slip (g)

Steve
anthem

hey anna, are you playing that GOOG fades or is your spread a call spread ? I'm seeing a monster amount of selling on GOOG and it looks like it might be institutions getting out of some exposure. The best play might be on a VIX crush (as usual). It's recovering a bit, but there are some fairly large GOOG blocks going by and the only ones capable of holding large GOOG blocks are usually institutionals.

Then again, who knows, this might be just the headfake. . .
AS2009

GOOG - filled the gap by today's action ...
anthem

Yes, but looking at the blocks moving. Looks like a lot of people are buying in but those are small blocks. Every few minutes you are seeing 1K+ size blocks ($500,000 a a time) being sold on the ask. That kind of indicates that some big holders are selling these blocks as I don't see green ticks of 1000+ right now.
Centrifugal_Deforest

Anyone impressed with the action overall today?
AudioTactics

I think it's mixed but overall...

We saw better than expected initial jobless claims and good results from GS and Citibank (cough, cough...) but market struggled for a bit.

Also, Nasdaq failed to make new highs today.

Does not really look like a strong follow through of yesterday's break-out but then again usually after a break-out you consolidate then move higher... hard to call it.
Trader_Steve

Impressed? I just watched "Dr. Strangleove" as I thought it might be an omen.

'We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when..."

Steve
anthem

Actually I think its been great. Nice clean 3+ point moves to play within. Big move down pre-market, followed by several very clean moves during the day. It was like a move every 30 minutes or so. . .
Centrifugal_Deforest

tend to agree
...i'm getting myself into warmer water, adding further long.
...hoping it doesn't boil
bsummertime

no, seems like a wait for GOOG/IBM to set the tone for tomorrow
Centrifugal_Deforest

True, but selling is sure muted in the meantime; most of it came early
Keirsten

... a little suspect of a breakout on low volume... what says you?
Centrifugal_Deforest

I hit LIKE instead of reply, so I guess I agree ;)
...actually, I think the action is rather favorable
Keirsten

HA! I guess favorable depends on how you're positioned.
Centrifugal_Deforest

Or where you point that mouse
Keirsten

Exactly. I still have some longs here, but I'm willing to cut and run on a moment's notice. My shorts are grateful today though. ;-)
PRSGuitars

SPX 133.3 we're right at it now...

http://screencast.com/t/X4qsz8Uf

Take me down, to the pullback city, where the grass is green and bulls HATE RETRACEMENTS.
Trader_Steve

Zach, I've got the gap at 109.68 in SPY on 10/03...any gap beyond that? I don't see it and it lines up nicely with your 133.33.

Steve
PRSGuitars

Low of the gap was 109.68 -- top was 109.62 so far today. Hrm...
No gaps beyond that that I see, though someone mentioned we might have one
near the 112 range? I'll look more closely...
TheCrowe

I prefer "sweet crash o' mine", but to each his own.
ultra

Well, the YM triangle worked out. 5 waves since that, at trendline resistance.

shhh....

http://screencast.com/t/ogVyN9JM
Joe8888

Bought Back ,,SDS here, can't stand waiting any longer....lol
tradejane

Which soap operas do y'all recommend if the $VIX drops any lower?
PRSGuitars

edit-- sorry, got the joke now -- "as the shorts burn" or "the young and the tradeless" or something
Joe8888

Watch gapfill 109.69 ish...
innatedc

This is so pathetic...I mean if its new highs wheres the fuckin volume....a joke...this why the zero is asleep....
ultra

Has the zero gone to sleep? Or mebbe it's just the market that has...
elliott_surfs

in the meantime, there's a 6 yr old kid flying around in a helium balloon over colorado. alone
innatedc

Wow is there media coverage....whats the rescue attempt? I can't even imagine how freaked I'd be if it was my child.
elliott_surfs

Msnbc and cnn are both showing live footage - frightening stuff.
innatedc

Yeah got it....I'm freaked out right now...fuck the market...
Trader_Steve

Balloon landed...reports of no kid. :(

Steve
Keirsten

Yeah, that's even worse. This is just awful. Who cares about the market- it really brings thing into perspective, doesn't it?
AS2009

Wow ... I have a 4.5 year old ... can't imagine how freaked out he would be after some time
PRSGuitars

OH NO! that's horrible...hope he's alright...
Nightwind

EUR/USD is not folloing spx move?
TheMacroEconomist

Volume on USO collapsed at 2:30, as CL's open outcry trade ended. So I got out at $39.92.
My limit order at $40.22 was not reached in the 2nd momentum run-up just after 2PM.

Prefer now to watch the oil close headlines on MarketWatch news feed from sidelines.
AS2009

its still consolidation ... but want to see a move soon ... maybe tomm as we reached key 40 level ...
TheMacroEconomist

In retrospect I should have tweaked my limit there to what the futs pits were doing, to get out closer to the very top. I saw that same pattern of trading a month ago on an inventory inspired runup in fact.

Main thing I wanted to avoid "afterhours" were quotes like you see in this piece, published at 3:03 Eastern:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-ed...

But that is good "wall of worry" fodder for more upside tomorrow or early next week if USD allows. ;)
AS2009

So you are expecting a drop now ?
TheMacroEconomist

Oops I missed this with the IBM/Google AH entertainment!

Neutral on oil attm. Will see what Asia does with it and the dollar tonight. I might have USO again tomorrow. :)

Incidentally...while USO flatlined into the close...just after that MarketWatch article hit the wires and CNBC said their piece, the CBOE Oil VIX popped back over 40. And it closed at 40.09.

Prior 6 month's daily on $OVX: http://trixychart.com/trixysnap/1615183378.png
The RSI(5) on it might call for a bit of caution.
AS2009

Nice :) ... I cannot day trade ... however if USO can stay above 40, the next tgt is 42.10 based on the chart ... I have UCO call which I have to hold over at least overnight for a swing trade to count

I liked the consolidation EOD, that allows the averages to catch up and also forms a bull flag on the 60 min :)
TheMacroEconomist

Probably should be fine overnight. Asia does not yet seem too bothered about an ongoing weak dollar. :)
innatedc

This move is with below 250 vol on Ticks....no participation....HFT machines
TheMacroEconomist

Market is wondering, should I fade GOOG news or trade GOOG news?
ultra

Trade. Mmm... then fade.
gmak

Getting that old EUR /SPX correlation going again. Could "they" be so bold as to try to close THE GAP, today?

It's a little early - but there seems to be a steady push up on SPX, just like the last 1/2 hour of yesterday.
Nightwind

I estimate spx target 1099-1100 with trendline resistance at 1098, assuming it doesn't dbl top.
Nightwind

Flip a coin.....heads it goes up......tails it goes up
skynard

First it was 900, then 1000 and nom SPX 1100 here we come. Another triangle forming.
gmak

CAD is getting pushed lower even as Oil rises. USD and DXY seem to be getting a small bid here.
TheMacroEconomist

October Gold has now settled for the day. Watching the DXY divergences carefully.
Joe8888

Big MOve coming here SPY 10 MIN.

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/ef01d767-5431-424f-8315-0b0582305008
ultra

Check out cable - painting a triangle too. Prepare for a possible pop higher.
AS2009

sorry - what is cable ?
shortcover

Cable is a foreign exchange term used for the GBP/USD currency pair rate (British Pound vs the US Dollar). It derives its name from the Transatlantic Cable, a steel cable laid under the Atlantic Ocean in 1858, telegraphically linking the UK with the USA, enabling messages with currency prices to be transmitted between the London and New York Exchanges.
(From Wikipedia)
ultra

GBPUSD - think it is thus called because of the first underwater telegraph cable linking us (may be making that up tho)
roscoe_casita

Book Burnings Begin: http://digg.com/d317CQ5
AS2009

Alpha - a request for you ... could you take a look at BIDU from an EW perspective ...

Kiersten / any pattern expert - I see a falling wedge from the highs - how should this play out ... stuck in a call spread .... tying to figure out what to do ...
springheel_jack

It may be that the rising wedge on the SPX 5 min so far today doesn't play out, but if it does, then it indicates to SPX 1078 or thereabouts. It looks ready to play out at any time to me, though it could rise as high as 1092 before doing so.
Carl V

Well, one could also see it as a continuation triangle on the ES because of pre-market session, and it is broken already, to the upside- objective around 1100- but not sure it will play out either...
http://screencast.com/t/zWQoNuyW
AudioTactics

The breakdown in the VIX is telling me the market wants to go higher.
colonel_bleep

What's new? Could also be op ex shenanigans...
gannsecret

Have they closed the market
or did I wake up on saturday morning ?
skynard

VIX getting slammed again though.
Darkthirty

VIX seems to be owned by MM's
Darkthirty

USD up, PM's down
colonel_bleep

Interesting that both VIX & GS working lower
tradejane

Lots of negative indicators today. A DAX tech-stock (Infineon) was down quite a bit today, too.

In fact, the TecDax Index today was down A LOT more than the others.
mmTesla

XLU another good short to consider, rising wedge.
Osso

there is a double short for XLU....cant remember.......do you ????
edit: SDP
mmTesla

No I don't know it, still getting my feet wet in ETF's.
Osso

SDP
gmak

Not based on the same underlying as XLU. SDP is the DJ US Utilities index. XLU is the utilities Select Sector Index.
Osso

oki....tks.!!
mmTesla

Thanks
AS2009

Good one on XLU ..

http://etfstocks.typepad.com/
mmTesla

Thanks for the site, I like his chart on DZZ
AS2009

Glad to help :) - love his site for ETFs !!
mmTesla

:)
Joe8888

Update,,SPY 10 min Channel,,,watch to see if we breakout ,to new intraday highs,,,,

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/6c450c33-86c1-4329-90b0-04985303a021
AS2009

Love your chart Joe +1 !!
Nightwind

That's how he gets all the women. He slips them a chart cocktell.
Joe8888

Thx Honey....:)

Foreclosures Nationally up 23% Year or Year,,,That's Insane,,

I guess it Great news , if your expecting 30% up......LMAO
thunda72

10min-SPY Ichimoku Cloud chart update: Price action is probing the cloud but cloud thickness and indecision of Teken-Kijun crossover indicates continued strength upwards. Looks like my 'hope' of seeing 108.50 at EOD will not happen.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Ub6Sk0hIu
rhae

nice chart Thunda, I had some stuff looking at 108.50 also, bears never give up, just beat up...
thunda72

Yup. :-( _ _ _
Anna

Is the Khomeini dead? Couldn't happen to a nicer (sarcastic) guy!
gmak

I don't think the rumour is about the one in hiding. It's about the Iran Ayatollah, I believe.
tradejane

>Ayatollah

I actually have a pet hamster named that way.
Anna

yes I have link below http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2009/oct/1...
Nightwind

BMY is to do a large layoff today. My youngest brother is awaiting his fate.
tradejane

I hope all goes well for him, Nightwind. Sometimes it's just too easy to forget the people behind the numbers.
Nightwind

Thanks, he just called me and said that he was ok. 50% cut in his department. He said that it was a wakeup call and now many of his friends are now jobless.
Anna

Glad to hear that! :)
AS2009

Sorry for his friends ... must be tough ...
Anna

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2009/oct/15/khamenei-iran-rumour-death
humblestudent88

One my chart in ETrade Pro, there is a gap on SPY, $111.06 to $107.62, Oct. 3rd to 6th.
humblestudent88

Also, there is a gap at 1.5129 on $EUI, EURO index. I personally think 1.495 area is good enough for now.
Osso

Oct 3 low (SPY): 107.51 ......dividend adjusted
Oct high (SPY): 105.49.......dividend adjusted.

Stockcharts have their charts adjusted to dividend/splits. Watch out.....difference to old charts...!!!!!
mmTesla

BBY is starting to look nice for a short

Edit: I have a hunch that they wont be doing very well in the next few months
Joe8888

Update of 10 min SPY Chart,

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/0b870053-2a2c-4c93-bc7e-025e8718ede9
Anna

Doubled down on apple call spread, Nov 195/200

paid average price of 180, possible reward up to 320

Apple is forming what I see as a R shoulder on inverse h&S price target 202
roscoe_casita

Loving the break out on USD/JPY!!!!

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2438/4013939825_aa2811703f_o.png
Joe8888

SPY Gap Fill Chart...

http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/e16aa3e8-a471-444b-8f3f-d43f747537ec
Osso

that gap does not show in stockcharts for SPY .....maybe due to dividend/split issues.....but I have it on SPX....but not in spy....according to stockcharts....if you are refering to Oct 3/6 gap.
tks for any opinion.
The gap was at 107.51....dividend adjusted.
The SPX gap is at 1098.....

blog comments powered by Disqus

feed

twitter

spx zero

instructions

poll
- Are you holding long term black swan insurance?
  Gradually building up more.
  
  Just started to load up.
  
  I'm stuffed up to the hilt.
  
  Had to let much of it go.
  
  Theta burn is a bitch.
  
  Just a little bit to be safe.
  
  Waste of money - bottom is in.
  
  Comfortably positioned.
  
  view results
  Loading ...
- polls archive

recent misdeeds

categories
- Bulltard Of The Day
- Economy
  - Inflation/Deflation
- Elliott Wave Theory
  - Spiral Calendar
- Interventions
  - Manipulation
  - TOMO/POMO
- Market News
- Market Outlook
- Market Politics
- Options
  - Volatility
- Program trading
- SWAG
- Trading
  - Bonds
  - Channels
  - Commodities
    - Copper
  - Currencies
    - Dollar
    - Euro
    - FX
    - Yen
  - Fractals
  - Futures
    - Gold
    - S&P 500 E-Mini
  - Indicators
  - Option Strategies
  - Retracement Levels
  - Reversals
  - Symbols
  - Trading Psychology
  - Trend Trading
- Uncategorized
- Update
- zero
archives

swag outlet!

search site

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website, while timely, colorful, and accurate, is not to be taken as financial, legal, tax, psychological or any type of advise. The purpose of this website is to track the progressions of human herd psychology as it is reflected through several financial markets. Any commentary on this page, however useful it may be, is used for illustration, and to inspire thought provoking discussion, and not to be taken as specific trade recommendations. We are not endorsing any site or service, nor are we promoting choice examples as real-life trades. If it sounds sarcastic, it probably is and if it offends you, just don't read it. There are tremendous inherent risks in attempting to trade any market using any vehicle, particularly if it is leverage. Please contact your broker to explain all risks involved in the vehicle you will be trading and any questions you may have. Please consult with your own financial advisor before you tempt fate by following our evil speculation.