Earnings Galore

Anna here Again :-D

Well so far the earnings have come in mixed.  Today i feel we chop around waiting for Google to report, a huge event. That will either give us a chance to retrace or shoot us on up to new highs. Nasdaq has along with financials been leading this tape.

Here is a chart on Google  Earnings out today after the bell.

Here is a chart by my good friend Nummy on the Dollar looks short term like we have more downside and I think it’s possible we could see a 70 handle on the old greenback longer term. When are they going to run out of GREEN INK !!!!

And just for fun, another bear costume I like in pink :-D

This entry was posted on Thursday, October 15th, 2009 at 9:19 am and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • bergs
    Geez Anna

    Gone for the day and you still can't get this sucker to go down. All this market does is go up. Speaking of up, loving the pic's. Should sue for "drool" damage to the keyboard though!

    big pic

    http://screencast.com/t/tugaudd2ev

    little pic

    http://screencast.com/t/Ob0RoRgCX9T

    disclaimer: This is an assumed count and of course is subject to change. So if I change it do not post how erratic Elliott analysis is. I think even the boys at EWI have backed off on showing counts. This is the highest probability count I can see at this point. If it is indeed the end of P2 so be it. If it turns out to be C of D,E so be it. To tell the truth in my minds eye ,sure looks like fumes.
    I always have deferred my trading to what Mole posts. He has been spot on. Better then the EWI boys.

    See Anna it is those pictures made me say all that.
  • AS2009
    Bergs ... we don't need disclaimers :) ... we all know you do your best !! +1 !!
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  • standard_and_poor
    Here are the short term trades from last two days I was too lazy to report, these
    trades were ok, some will surely be dogs :

    Date Action Symbol % of portfolio Gain Days Held


    Yesterday at 2:05PM (EST) Bought CAST 0.98% N/A 1

    Yesterday at 9:45AM (EST) Bought TSTC 0.99% N/A 1

    Yesterday at 9:45AM (EST) Bought SPRD 1.01% N/A 1

    Yesterday at 9:45AM (EST) Bought CNTF 1.01% N/A 1

    Yesterday at 9:30AM (EST) Bought KONG 1.01% N/A 1


    Oct 13, 2009 Sold EGHT 2.15% 5.36% 4

    Oct 13, 2009 Sold THLD 2.86% 18.18% 4

    Oct 13, 2009 Sold FSII 2.05% 3.14% 4

    Oct 13, 2009 Sold DIGA 1.80% -8.80% 4
  • Trader_Steve
    Would you please stop!

    You think your trades are important, and timed down to the minuted) because?

    Or is this to show us you leared how to use a spreadsheet?

    Sheesh,
    Steve

    P.S. When I'm not "warmongering" I get up and sometimes echange e-mails with a few Marines I know in Afghanistan if they are online. I didn't catch any this morning. Oh, and they said you are welcome for the safety they provide to you.
  • faafa
    NYT Update | 3:59 p.m. Falcon Heene was not found in the balloon, and now officials say there is a possibility that Falcon might be hiding in his Fort Collins neighborhood, in fear of recriminations.
  • elliott_surfs
    It's a shame he wasn't inside - woulda been a great story at 6 years old ;)
  • bsummertime
    google hugging the 540 pin. largest o.i. on calls
  • Osso
    IBM down......!!!!!
  • Bart7
    goog beat, spy 109.75 now...
  • ds2
    Makes sense, people w/o jobs search the net to find one - clicking ads along the way.
  • LogansRun
    So ad spending will do down when the economy is good and people don't have to search for jobs?
  • innatedc
    GOOG just flew...
  • I've been watching IYR closely the last day or two. Went long DRV (3x inverse) at 18.50 for a short-term trade.
  • Joe8888
    109.69 we got GAP FILL....now tell mr Market ,,,take foot off the Gas,,,,
  • AudioTactics
    Here's what I think, big picture:

    We just broke through the 1080 level which had the potential to be a double-top. This is very bullish.

    Even though I would like to be short right now, I think you need to be patient.

    If the market pulls back to 1080 and it holds, it would be a buy. If it pulls back and breaks 1080 support, its a sell.

    If you want to sell, I would wait for the top of the channel defined by a trend line touching the highs of the past 3 months roughly. That area depending on how quickly we get there is 1120 - 1150 or so...

    That is my unbiased view of things as I have no position right now.
  • AudioTactics
    Correction:

    I mispoke... The channel I was referring to is defined by a trend line touching the highs of the past week or so (dating back to 10/6). This implies that we could be much closer to a potential pull-back than I originally mentioned and that the level could be 1,100 and possibly reached tomorrow.
  • Similar thoughts here. I'm expecting a short term pullback -- I am watching IYR with a first target of 41.90 (gap fill), second target 41.43 (gap fill).
  • not a bad comment, waves can truncate on 5
  • AudioTactics
    Cheers! =)

    What does "waves can truncate on 5" imply?

    I'm not much of an E-Waver...
  • a failure, does not go beyond 3 in values
  • TheMacroEconomist
    On a 5-wave impulsive pattern up or down, a truncated 5th or failure means the 5th wave does not surpass the 3rd. It implies that the sentiment in the direction of the impulse is weak and acceleration in the opposite direction should follow.

    5th waves can also extend, when the sentiment in the direction of the impulse is strong.
  • Joe8888
    We are going up...

    Do we now fill Gap....?
  • humblestudent88
    I only watch a couple of big bank financials and miners. Buy imbalance on financials today, looks more than short covering.
  • gmak
    Yep. Gaming on the EUR as well. low volume pop on the futures. Can't be anything else but at this time. Now begins the slow grind up to 1098 on the SPX.
  • fa_q
    Hola from Mexico. Ahh, nothing like the sweet smell of drawdown to put a damper on a beautiful Mexican beach day. I have some rickety internet service so I won't be able to do much. But all of the ES levels that I mentioned got hit to sell, 1080, 1085, 1090. Pretty nuts. So I'm short 1.5x at 1074 ES. Yeah, that's technically over a full position but I have some house money. The NQ is still the same, I think about down 20 pts or so. I know some people like to know when I add or subtract - so, there you go. Nothing like setting orders, waking up hungover and finding them filled. No equity positions although if IYR fails and falls under its mid Bollinger I will hit that if I'm around and I can log on. Other than that I'm off to the local pharmacia to see if they have Vaseline in this country. This is like reverse tourista! Good luck.
  • BigIslandLife
    must be why he needs the Vaseline for that cannonball chaf taht is swinging between his legs LOL
  • mmTesla
    Try the Hornintos it is delicious
  • Bankster
    1.5x your normal position ahead of IBM and GOOG earnings! Yowza, you have cannonballs swinging between your legs! I hope it works out. I am short too and scared.
  • PRSGuitars
    Glad to hear it -- enjoy the sun and cerveza. With you on the large short -- seeing all sorts of reasons to effectively play a reversion trade (towards 1040, 1050 at least) here. Chaos. We're 30 pts from 1120 and 30 pts from 1060 -- wasnt it just yesterday that we were there?

    Be safe, enjoy your time, fa_q... take it easy bud
  • PRSGuitars
    TK is getting pretty short over at SOH -- we'll see how the AH and tomorrow plays out... but i suspect we're on the right path...

    SPX grinding higher in recent channel, bouncing off the midline to upside still... EOD?

    http://screencast.com/t/XYFcpyJgo
  • Trader_Steve
    I'm not seeing your avatar, mine, and a number of others. I think anna wants only her own here...yeah, that's the ticket!

    Steve
  • humblestudent88
    Thank you for your charts, and all others' charts. I have to reply to you again, I am still learning how to reply via Disqus.

    Recently, every time I looked at $DXY, this came to my mind,
    "How much wood would a woodchuck chuck?"
    Today is the first day that $DXY was not beaten to the lowest over all time zones during EST.
  • PRSGuitars
    Absoutely -- huge volume overnight early on and now light play meandering sideways?

    Ask any questions you may have -- we're all happy to help.
  • humblestudent88
    Recently, every time I looked at $DXY, this came to my mind,
    "How much wood would a woodchuck chuck?"
    Today is the first day that $DXY was not beaten to the lowest over all time zones during EST.
  • Bart7
    kid wasn't aboard the balloon...
  • faafa
    I pray he wasn't....

    Edit: That didn't come out right. Thought you meant to say he wasn't aboard to begin with, hence my reply. Still holding my breath for good news.
  • Joe8888
    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...

    SPY 10 min


    A close below yesterdays high ,,,is baby steps in the right direction,,,
  • faafa
    Nice call on SDS, Joe. But given your SPY 10 min, you knew that... :-)
  • Joe8888
    They could pop this back up in no-time,,,but i had enough,,, i bought them back,,, we never did get 100% gap fill , we came close 109.62

    Maybe they spike back up and fill,,, we will see,,,
  • Hey buddy. Definitely did not see that chart from earlier. QUITE intriguing. I am expecting a drop at any point too, just haven't been feeling it lately.

    But that chart gives me a warm fuzzy feeling. Thanks.

    Skål!
  • Joe8888
    Thanks Berk ,wanted your feedback on it,,,,Cheers

    What i Love about that chart,is how Price and Time Meet at the Cross Roads....Amazes Me all the Time,,
  • Trader_Steve
    In the anals of trading history, is 6/100th missing the fill and is that ever a gap in size that traders have spoken about filling?

    Steve
  • gmak
    "Anals" is the right word. You might have meant annals, but anals is definitely better given the size of the miss. lol.
  • Trader_Steve
    Freudian slip (g)

    Steve
  • anthem
    hey anna, are you playing that GOOG fades or is your spread a call spread ? I'm seeing a monster amount of selling on GOOG and it looks like it might be institutions getting out of some exposure. The best play might be on a VIX crush (as usual). It's recovering a bit, but there are some fairly large GOOG blocks going by and the only ones capable of holding large GOOG blocks are usually institutionals.

    Then again, who knows, this might be just the headfake. . .
  • AS2009
    GOOG - filled the gap by today's action ...
  • anthem
    Yes, but looking at the blocks moving. Looks like a lot of people are buying in but those are small blocks. Every few minutes you are seeing 1K+ size blocks ($500,000 a a time) being sold on the ask. That kind of indicates that some big holders are selling these blocks as I don't see green ticks of 1000+ right now.
  • Anyone impressed with the action overall today?
  • AudioTactics
    I think it's mixed but overall...

    We saw better than expected initial jobless claims and good results from GS and Citibank (cough, cough...) but market struggled for a bit.

    Also, Nasdaq failed to make new highs today.

    Does not really look like a strong follow through of yesterday's break-out but then again usually after a break-out you consolidate then move higher... hard to call it.
  • Trader_Steve
    Impressed? I just watched "Dr. Strangleove" as I thought it might be an omen.

    'We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when..."

    Steve
  • anthem
    Actually I think its been great. Nice clean 3+ point moves to play within. Big move down pre-market, followed by several very clean moves during the day. It was like a move every 30 minutes or so. . .
  • tend to agree
    ...i'm getting myself into warmer water, adding further long.
    ...hoping it doesn't boil
  • bsummertime
    no, seems like a wait for GOOG/IBM to set the tone for tomorrow
  • True, but selling is sure muted in the meantime; most of it came early
  • Keirsten
    ... a little suspect of a breakout on low volume... what says you?
  • I hit LIKE instead of reply, so I guess I agree ;)
    ...actually, I think the action is rather favorable
  • Keirsten
    HA! I guess favorable depends on how you're positioned.
  • Or where you point that mouse
  • Keirsten
    Exactly. I still have some longs here, but I'm willing to cut and run on a moment's notice. My shorts are grateful today though. ;-)
  • PRSGuitars
    SPX 133.3 we're right at it now...

    http://screencast.com/t/X4qsz8Uf

    Take me down, to the pullback city, where the grass is green and bulls HATE RETRACEMENTS.
  • Trader_Steve
    Zach, I've got the gap at 109.68 in SPY on 10/03...any gap beyond that? I don't see it and it lines up nicely with your 133.33.

    Steve
  • PRSGuitars
    Low of the gap was 109.68 -- top was 109.62 so far today. Hrm...
    No gaps beyond that that I see, though someone mentioned we might have one
    near the 112 range? I'll look more closely...
  • TheCrowe
    I prefer "sweet crash o' mine", but to each his own.
  • Well, the YM triangle worked out. 5 waves since that, at trendline resistance.

    shhh....

    http://screencast.com/t/ogVyN9JM
  • Joe8888
    Bought Back ,,SDS here, can't stand waiting any longer....lol
  • tradejane
    Which soap operas do y'all recommend if the $VIX drops any lower?
  • PRSGuitars
    edit-- sorry, got the joke now -- "as the shorts burn" or "the young and the tradeless" or something
  • Joe8888
    Watch gapfill 109.69 ish...
  • innatedc
    This is so pathetic...I mean if its new highs wheres the fuckin volume....a joke...this why the zero is asleep....
  • Has the zero gone to sleep? Or mebbe it's just the market that has...
  • elliott_surfs
    in the meantime, there's a 6 yr old kid flying around in a helium balloon over colorado. alone
  • innatedc
    Wow is there media coverage....whats the rescue attempt? I can't even imagine how freaked I'd be if it was my child.
  • elliott_surfs
    Msnbc and cnn are both showing live footage - frightening stuff.
  • innatedc
    Yeah got it....I'm freaked out right now...fuck the market...
  • Trader_Steve
    Balloon landed...reports of no kid. :(

    Steve
  • Keirsten
    Yeah, that's even worse. This is just awful. Who cares about the market- it really brings thing into perspective, doesn't it?
  • AS2009
    Wow ... I have a 4.5 year old ... can't imagine how freaked out he would be after some time
  • PRSGuitars
    OH NO! that's horrible...hope he's alright...
  • Nightwind
    EUR/USD is not folloing spx move?
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Volume on USO collapsed at 2:30, as CL's open outcry trade ended. So I got out at $39.92.
    My limit order at $40.22 was not reached in the 2nd momentum run-up just after 2PM.

    Prefer now to watch the oil close headlines on MarketWatch news feed from sidelines.
  • AS2009
    its still consolidation ... but want to see a move soon ... maybe tomm as we reached key 40 level ...
  • TheMacroEconomist
    In retrospect I should have tweaked my limit there to what the futs pits were doing, to get out closer to the very top. I saw that same pattern of trading a month ago on an inventory inspired runup in fact.

    Main thing I wanted to avoid "afterhours" were quotes like you see in this piece, published at 3:03 Eastern:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-ed...

    But that is good "wall of worry" fodder for more upside tomorrow or early next week if USD allows. ;)
  • AS2009
    So you are expecting a drop now ?
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Oops I missed this with the IBM/Google AH entertainment!

    Neutral on oil attm. Will see what Asia does with it and the dollar tonight. I might have USO again tomorrow. :)

    Incidentally...while USO flatlined into the close...just after that MarketWatch article hit the wires and CNBC said their piece, the CBOE Oil VIX popped back over 40. And it closed at 40.09.

    Prior 6 month's daily on $OVX: http://trixychart.com/trixysnap/1615183378.png
    The RSI(5) on it might call for a bit of caution.
  • AS2009
    Nice :) ... I cannot day trade ... however if USO can stay above 40, the next tgt is 42.10 based on the chart ... I have UCO call which I have to hold over at least overnight for a swing trade to count

    I liked the consolidation EOD, that allows the averages to catch up and also forms a bull flag on the 60 min :)
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Probably should be fine overnight. Asia does not yet seem too bothered about an ongoing weak dollar. :)
  • innatedc
    This move is with below 250 vol on Ticks....no participation....HFT machines
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Market is wondering, should I fade GOOG news or trade GOOG news?
  • Trade. Mmm... then fade.
  • gmak
    Getting that old EUR /SPX correlation going again. Could "they" be so bold as to try to close THE GAP, today?

    It's a little early - but there seems to be a steady push up on SPX, just like the last 1/2 hour of yesterday.
  • Nightwind
    I estimate spx target 1099-1100 with trendline resistance at 1098, assuming it doesn't dbl top.
  • Nightwind
    Flip a coin.....heads it goes up......tails it goes up
  • skynard
    First it was 900, then 1000 and nom SPX 1100 here we come. Another triangle forming.
  • gmak
    CAD is getting pushed lower even as Oil rises. USD and DXY seem to be getting a small bid here.
  • TheMacroEconomist
    October Gold has now settled for the day. Watching the DXY divergences carefully.
  • Joe8888
  • Check out cable - painting a triangle too. Prepare for a possible pop higher.
  • AS2009
    sorry - what is cable ?
  • shortcover
    Cable is a foreign exchange term used for the GBP/USD currency pair rate (British Pound vs the US Dollar). It derives its name from the Transatlantic Cable, a steel cable laid under the Atlantic Ocean in 1858, telegraphically linking the UK with the USA, enabling messages with currency prices to be transmitted between the London and New York Exchanges.
    (From Wikipedia)
  • GBPUSD - think it is thus called because of the first underwater telegraph cable linking us (may be making that up tho)
  • rosocecasita
    Book Burnings Begin: http://digg.com/d317CQ5
  • AS2009
    Alpha - a request for you ... could you take a look at BIDU from an EW perspective ...

    Kiersten / any pattern expert - I see a falling wedge from the highs - how should this play out ... stuck in a call spread .... tying to figure out what to do ...
  • springheel_jack
    It may be that the rising wedge on the SPX 5 min so far today doesn't play out, but if it does, then it indicates to SPX 1078 or thereabouts. It looks ready to play out at any time to me, though it could rise as high as 1092 before doing so.
  • Carl V
    Well, one could also see it as a continuation triangle on the ES because of pre-market session, and it is broken already, to the upside- objective around 1100- but not sure it will play out either...
    http://screencast.com/t/zWQoNuyW
  • springheel_jack
    That may well be, but it turned at 1092 though. Well see whether it plays out as the wedge or the triangle.
  • AudioTactics
    The breakdown in the VIX is telling me the market wants to go higher.
  • colonel_bleep
    What's new? Could also be op ex shenanigans...
  • springheel_jack
    Could well be.
  • gannsecret
    Have they closed the market
    or did I wake up on saturday morning ?
  • skynard
    VIX getting slammed again though.
  • Darkthirty
    VIX seems to be owned by MM's
  • Darkthirty
    USD up, PM's down
  • colonel_bleep
    Interesting that both VIX & GS working lower
  • tradejane
    Lots of negative indicators today. A DAX tech-stock (Infineon) was down quite a bit today, too.

    In fact, the TecDax Index today was down A LOT more than the others.
  • mmTesla
    XLU another good short to consider, rising wedge.
  • Osso
    there is a double short for XLU....cant remember.......do you ????
    edit: SDP
  • mmTesla
    No I don't know it, still getting my feet wet in ETF's.
  • Osso
    SDP
  • gmak
    Not based on the same underlying as XLU. SDP is the DJ US Utilities index. XLU is the utilities Select Sector Index.
  • Osso
    oki....tks.!!
  • mmTesla
    Thanks
  • AS2009
  • mmTesla
    Thanks for the site, I like his chart on DZZ
  • AS2009
    Glad to help :) - love his site for ETFs !!
  • mmTesla
    :)
  • Joe8888
    Update,,SPY 10 min Channel,,,watch to see if we breakout ,to new intraday highs,,,,

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...
  • AS2009
    Love your chart Joe +1 !!
  • Nightwind
    That's how he gets all the women. He slips them a chart cocktell.
  • Joe8888
    Thx Honey....:)



    Foreclosures Nationally up 23% Year or Year,,,That's Insane,,

    I guess it Great news , if your expecting 30% up......LMAO
  • thunda72
    10min-SPY Ichimoku Cloud chart update: Price action is probing the cloud but cloud thickness and indecision of Teken-Kijun crossover indicates continued strength upwards. Looks like my 'hope' of seeing 108.50 at EOD will not happen.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Ub6Sk0hIu
  • rhae
    nice chart Thunda, I had some stuff looking at 108.50 also, bears never give up, just beat up...
  • thunda72
    Yup. :-( _ _ _
  • Is the Khomeini dead? Couldn't happen to a nicer (sarcastic) guy!
  • gmak
    I don't think the rumour is about the one in hiding. It's about the Iran Ayatollah, I believe.
  • tradejane
    >Ayatollah

    I actually have a pet hamster named that way.
  • Nightwind
    BMY is to do a large layoff today. My youngest brother is awaiting his fate.
  • tradejane
    I hope all goes well for him, Nightwind. Sometimes it's just too easy to forget the people behind the numbers.
  • Nightwind
    Thanks, he just called me and said that he was ok. 50% cut in his department. He said that it was a wakeup call and now many of his friends are now jobless.
  • Glad to hear that! :)
  • AS2009
    Sorry for his friends ... must be tough ...
  • humblestudent88
    One my chart in ETrade Pro, there is a gap on SPY, $111.06 to $107.62, Oct. 3rd to 6th.
  • humblestudent88
    Also, there is a gap at 1.5129 on $EUI, EURO index. I personally think 1.495 area is good enough for now.
  • Osso
    Oct 3 low (SPY): 107.51 ......dividend adjusted
    Oct high (SPY): 105.49.......dividend adjusted.

    Stockcharts have their charts adjusted to dividend/splits. Watch out.....difference to old charts...!!!!!
  • mmTesla
    BBY is starting to look nice for a short

    Edit: I have a hunch that they wont be doing very well in the next few months
  • Joe8888
  • Doubled down on apple call spread, Nov 195/200

    paid average price of 180, possible reward up to 320

    Apple is forming what I see as a R shoulder on inverse h&S price target 202
  • rosocecasita
    Loving the break out on USD/JPY!!!!


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