Oil short is in, now we wait. API numbers last night maybe a bit "too bad" but I'm going with 'em.

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But you're not going to like it, so you might as well stay here.

1108 sounds reasonable for an intra-day move...maybe things are inverted here and the highs are all end of oct with no x-mas rally...?

today is 20 trading days from the 9-23 high
1080 + 20 = 1100 Resistance, through that
1108

any Gann turn dates around here? minor Bradley tomorrow and Friday...

10-23  10-29   11-2

and should be the top IMHO right Gann ? :)

Anna,
Next few turn dates are the 23rd, 29th
and the last of the up pressure cycles 11-2

Did the EUR/USD just peak? I hope it sells off $1.50.

We have closed our recommended short position on GBPUSD with a PROFIT.

http://retracementlevels.blogspot.com/

New levels have been updated

Apple out with new products yesterday to steal a bit of Windows 7 thunder for that "launch" tomorrow

My take: Intel wins either way, Mac vs. PC.

"Now every new Mac ships with an Intel processor" - http://www.apple.com/intel/

Whatever happened to two jacks anyone know?

He's been taking some time out from the blogs. Still posting on his own blog though.

Oh thanks Jack :)

BTW I dumped Apple at the open (bear call spread) that Cramer upgraded it to 300, so have to wait a bit longer.

i still hold my AAPL
i have to dumped it?
not too fast anna?
thanx..

IHS on GS?

OK... I know that Mole will tell me "fade the news, fade the news." And I agree in principle that most of it is BS, propaganda, misleading, old, or otherwise useless. Rather I look for the overall sentiment as a weak indicator (lagging or forward looking) - similar to market tops being ruled by bullishness and bottoms by bearishness.

Anyhow, news radio over the last couple of days since the dow hit 10K has turned very negative regarding wall street. I find it funny since dow 10K was so pumped to be a positive thing to draw in money from the sidelines. This may not mean much, or maybe it is yet another leak in the dam that starting for form. Only time will tell.

Oh, and who accidentally pushed the launch button this morning?

A couple of days ago, I posted that while we were approaching the point at which a huge number of bear sites said was a line in the sand, and a high probability reversal point, it doesn't feel like a lot fo the elements for such a reversal are in place.

The general tone you refer to above, is precisely one of those elements that makes me wonder.

This does not feel like a market top to me, no matter what the technicals and patterns say.

That was me, was going for some coffee but hit the launch button instead. (Monsters vs Aliens bit there... sorry got an 8 yr old so I know these things lol).

I have an 8 yr old son as well. Funny movie. I forgot about that part... actually was thinking about some old TV show from I think the 70's - something about the button looking like Lunch instead of Launch.

Gabbing some puts here, stop @ 1102....

On the same train O.

@anna- Still long GLD?

yes I think the Dollar is heading towards 74 area.

if it breaks I see 73 more likely

Probably lower longer term toasty hamster :)

long term 30 might be a solid support (if other countries also devalue)otherwise 8 seems nice (but I believe in 80 before that)

Are you NOT expecting the retrace to 1075 first?

TIA

I do, but it looks like 1108 is in the cards soon. We'll see, at some point the markets going to realize that a weak dollar is bad for the econmy and IMHO will decouple.
still holding ISRG, being very patient :)
Always welcome Pra

Bradley minor turn date Oct 22 to 23, major on Nov. 9
http://forbestadvice.com/Money/Gurus/DonaldBradley/BradleyTurnDates2009.html

Genuine rallies don't pump up like that....more like shorts covering with fear...lol

this may be the last leg of the final, final...1120 target...10,200 area for dow...assuming we crack 1100.

that's what I'm thinking, 1110 area max.. too many looking for 1120

Last comment of mine today is my question of the day: How's this going to resolve?

http://screencast.com/t/T4kz6EChJur

pumping up?

As usual - probably - this market is now defying gravity and seasonality.

as per program... your arrows were the moments where it was supposed to turn weren't they?

Funny that you posted that thought at the very moment I was looking at S&P at thinking the same thing.

Mole, this is a new study might explain why anna has the perception of getting more posts.

http://jcmc.indiana.edu/vol11/issue1/nowak.html

Basically, you need to change your avatar to an evil slut :)

P.S. I value your posts most of all.

never really paid much attention to avatars myself.. just trying to learn all I can when I visit.. I;m not great with charts (pretty poor yet actually) however I look at them all.

I like Mole's avatar tho.. fitting for the name of this site.

Congrats on the game btw - I really enjoyed it.

thanks, it was a good game.. back and forth. Could have gone either way I think. More fun to watch than something like the NE - Titans game.

LOL - I knew this a long time ago mate - for some reason you put up the picture of a hot chick and most guys only think with their dicks. It's very sad actually...

well, if there wasn't that "minor defect" human race would be long gone.

Talking of endings, ride to 1107 anyone?

frankly I get tired of that crap and the "sexy avatars" there's other sites if that's what you're looking for...

There's no hot girl pic up now???

good, just give me a chart with some nice curves...

Thanks for this mate - now get yourself a sexy avatar and come back ;-)

Mole - a suggestion ... I am a relative newbie here and hope you take it in the right spirit .... since you have an awesome blog and it can be even better ...

1. If you make the blog about the the trading vs how much you post - you will see a lot more responses .... that is what I have seen in the past ...

2. Also, there have been dry spells when others have posted as well .... sometimes the mkt is not moving much and people are quiet after the early morning burst ..

3. There are some issues with something on the site - I spent 5 hours yesteday evening cleaning my main PC of virus / spyware ... got the warning popups right after I came back to the site again ... not sure what it is ... but its there ...

4. It also helps to have fewer comments (with more meaning) so that we can go through them quickly ... vs chit chat at the Slope ... that is why I hardly ever go there ... 400 comments with 150 meaningful ones is too time-taking to go through ..

5. Also, you do great charts, but sometimes one morning post is enough - with an update which you tell us about ... since hardly refresh the screen to see a new post

6. Lastly, you know that rats have been hurting ... so smile too :) Its good for you ... helps make things easier ...

Hoping you don't kill me for saying this .... but you have a great blog and we can make it better ...

No overlap on the lesser degree wave four.

getting close.

http://screencast.com/t/X2S5UcIv

Great call Bergs you were spot on :)

Wow, thats one of the fastest gap fills that I remember in the last few months. . And of course its a fill from a gap down and not the other way around. . ..

GM Anna, still got Oil call? Inventory number due out this morning, so be careful...but what do I know :)

Hi Beef, yes i do and GLD, figuring the damn $DXY would dump today. :)

I hope not... that wouldn't do good to my target of SPX 1080... ;(

Hi Anna,

Are you still holding on to your ISRG put spread?

TIA

Yes I am so far being patient

In more ways than one!

I dumped it initially when it popped but IV crushed it. I don't think it'll come back. Get out while you can

Those freaking MM's crushed this one way more than I have seen anything like it in a long time, so I am holding for a longer term trade, but thanks for your input :)

Incorrect. We will see ~1108 before 1072.

Premium on ISRG 250/240 puts seem to have eroded.

any chance they'll come back?!
but really...is that from IV?

Anybody have any thoughts on DRYS? seems like a very long consolidation at around $7

This rally is taking a toll on all of us, i think mole you should turn fully bullish and start showing charts of stocks that are going to the moon :)

Mike Vadon was calling for AAPL at 1000. Sounded pretty exciting.

Cramer was only calling for 300 though.

Cramer might be Mike V Jack LOL

:-)

Morning Anna.

EURUSD appears to be taking off. If it breaks 1.50 the day might start to get really interesting.

Morning Jack! :)
Thats what I mentioned yesterday about the $dxy bouncing only to 75.58 area. which it did, now it's back to the old plan. I see 74 in it's future shortly

If we turn, we turn here I suspect. SPX & EURUSD are getting a bit of resistance at yesterday's highs

wow that didn't take long huh Jack? Buy you silly bulls I will add some puts @ 1100 area :)

It might work better this way really. We could use a few days of chop before a sharp last wave up next week.

Did you see Joe's 41 day pivot cycle chart? Very impressive & the next pivot is at 30th October. It would be good to get a sharp rise into that to establish a clear turn signal.

it will be interesting to see what happens when the oil report comes out at 10.30.

Pull off that freaking bandaid quickly already Jack :). LOL this melting up is killing us...Just get it over with and let's get some P3 already Sheeesh

Yes, I am bullish on Oil/GLD we shall see what happens but at some point the $DXY/SPX trade will decouple

They should go away...they are wipers of other peole boo-tocks!

Steve

They need to be on my grill tonight Nice and toasty :-)

EUR/USD gathers some topside momentum…
By Jamie Coleman || October 21, 2009 at 13:25 GMT
|| 0 comments || Add comment
We hear that a portion of the exotic options struck at 1.5000 roll off (expire) this morning at 10 am New York time. (The vast majority of over-the-counter options expire at that time on a daily basis). There is an $8 mln payout at stake, so if upside momentum materializes, there are eight million reasons for one side to want it up and the other side to keep it down

http://www.forexlive.com/59208/all/if-eurusd-gathers-some-topside-momentum

Feeling a bit better this morning, though I got tied up too long at the doc's yesterday.

When I got back I tried to get a buy off for DNO (the oil short) at $43.54. But I guess it was too close to 8PM and the futures arb dealer pulled his offer, leaving a ridiculous bid/ask of $0.15 / $399.99. :P

Anyway will be watching the general market and the USD closely this AM, going into the EIA report.

anna, it is possible... this is my expanding T from last Friday... it has not blown up yet, and tagged the top... so will wait and see what happens if it tags the E area...
http://www.screencast.com/t/Z6CoNLX0

It seems there is a bit of market lore about the USD, that the candle for the last 30 min before NY open is the opposite of what will happen intra-day after that.

Anyone else have anything on this or similar?

Breakthroughs on Euro/Yen and Euro/USD.......up is the call....

I swear you get more comments on a three word post at dawn than I get busting my ass for hours (not that I don't appreciate the three words - LOL). I think I'm taking the week off - see ya rats.

Your "big picture" charts, plus the POMO summaries and insight are the crown jewels of Evil Speculator.

Mole take some time off no biggie, everyone loves your charts none better, in the blogshere!

Its the lack of hot girls in Halloweeen outfits. I tried to tell you a few days ago :)

hahaha I got some good ones :)

I'm fucking serious and thinking of closing this place down - not fun anymore.

how about ISRG that should make you smile a bit :)

Yet Rammstein porn is not enough?!! LOL!!

Anna is charismatic ...

But Mole, I like all your deep analysis, charts and all the other good stuff. :)

Thanks for creating this great community !

I am intentionally not charismatic as I don't want to create a place in which people follow me around like little lap dogs. I already see a growing number of people simply follow Anna's trades as they don't have a clue or are too lazy to think for themselves.

NOT the kind of place I want to be running and my patience with you guys is running out. What if Anna is gone one day - what are you lap dogs are going to do?

Yes it's easy to follow someone else who is enjoying the attention - it takes character to be challenged and to better yourself. And teachers like that are rarely popular.

Mole,

I'm generally aware that it doesn't help me any in the long run to follow other people's trades. That's why I stay away from SOH.

Recently, I've caught myself trying to trade against Anna. Although with a rebel twist, that too is following. Now that I'm cognizant of that, I'm much better off.

Well, I hope this isn't good bye. I hope this is just a see you later. Today's battle is taking place between the rally trend line you have drawn and the 61.8 Fib fan I have drawn (valid on SPX but not SPY). My plan is pretty straightforward. Don't trade in between those two lines. After this, I won't be reading or writing comments today, but I will be double reading any and all posts of yours.

See you,

Raised By Wolves

You followed me on ISRG, don't want to sit in my lap???

BTW - this is NOT about you as I obviously enjoy you work - this is about people who are becoming dependent on others. They tried to do the same thing with me a few months ago and I told them to fuck off and start thinking for themselve.

Point take Kimosabe

How many Geronimo trades did you get from me? This is the only trade I took from you in months.

never mind you don't get it :( I am too busy most of the time and miss them unfortunately but it has been spot on

She does make a good point there....point is we are all trying to help each other out....

Yes and no. That's only partially true. Some of us try to get a free lunch. But Mole's about teaching a person to prepare her/his own lunch.

I don't disagree with you that there are leeches out there but my general feeling is that the core players (regulars) are well intentioned.

You just enjoy disagreeing with me - LOL - but at least you're not a lap dog, so I take it.

that's what it's all about to me Inna :)

As much as I like Anna as a person and a trader, Mole is an order of magnitude better as an analyst (content) and a writer (style). (I'm not saying that Anna couldn't develop in those areas since people aren't static unless they choose to be). I would characterize Mole's writing as impressively splendid, er—give me one moment as I dig out urban dictionary—sick.

I couldn't agree more Raised, I am a work in progress, but no one can chart like the "Molester" together with his charts and my instinct. we make a great team :)

This is not about Anna who's a great trader. This is about the rest of you.

The reason why my comment count is dwindling has nothing to do with fun or charisma as my first two posts yesterday were on fire and I was in a good mood. What frustrates me is that most of you only come here to have someone tell you what trades to take.

If I see one more "Anna - do you think that..." post I'm going to hurl. What do YOU think and WHY?

Mole, one more comment of mine. The real last one of the day since I have to concentrate on my charts.

Today's battle could, theoretically, go either way. However, I believe it's more probable that the rally line will hold and the 61.8 Fib fan line will be overthrown. Why? My reason may not be any better than flipping a coin, but the rally line was overthrown earlier this month and the banks/financials are strong today and the ring wants to be found, er the gap wants to be filled.

If the Fib fan is temporarily overthrown today, tomorrow, the day after, I believe the move above it won't be sustained more than a week. Why? A repeat of May 2008.

Maybe I'm making too much of one line, but I believe it's a damn important line and even if it weren't having a line makes trading a hell of a lot easier.

They complement each other well IMO....

thank you Hanuman, maybe we would make a good team :)

Sure ... July 3rd and July 4th are friends to start with. :)

Stop brown nosing and start contributing- I want to see charts.

;-D

And you lady bug - as much as I love you - are enjoying this way too much and also have been seduced by the dark force. You should challenge them a lot more. Your standard reply should be 'what do you think?' and if you get anything back it's okay to spoonfeed a litlle.

It's up to you - i'm not going to force your hand and I know it's fun to have your own little fan club. But teaching others is a responsibility - and it's easy to get sucked into simply leading them around.

Aren't you the dark force ;)

and I see the point you are making, allot of folks are still learning and need to get their feet wet, but I encourage all to say their thoughts charts trading ideas , so what if they aren't perfect! That's ok, We are all here to learn from each other in a fun friendly and informative way.

Mole is there a German translation for "fun friendly"?.....I didn't think so.

Yeah it's always easy to start pulling stereotypes - you're on thin ice mate.

BTW (tell me if none of my business) are you originaly from the north or south of germany.

Known quite a few germans and realy found those from the south to be more laid back.

I was raised in Austria and Switzerland - the Swiss suck but the Austrians are hilarious.

southern germans usualy are (austria is a bit bavaria like)

as for the swiss, acording to what you wrote, hope you had a nice adolescence there ;-)

Spent this past summer in Wein, Saltzburg and Gratz, love the place(probably my favorite in all of Europe). My friend is getting married in Saltzburg this Winter.
Yes, the Swiss seem to be a bit too serious.

KISS. keep it simple stupid!
(except your not stupid...)

Awww!! Come on Mole, come out and play with us.....

I don't play with lap dogs - prefer the rough scrawny kind that can challenge me and is self sufficient.

Have any of you ever considered that I could make it a lot easier on myself as well as you? I could simply bask in my glory all day and just tell you which trades to take - so could Berk. But we both prefer to walk the path less traveled - which is in our nature as we are bears and contrarians.

Have to say, while you were gone in Colorado last week, I missed the very much needed "kick in the butt" that your analysis postings give. Thanks for making Evil Speculator the best damn empowering traders blog out there.

Snowing fairly hard in Colorado this morning

I flew back to L.A. and it was like 80 degrees at night - nice :-)

As am I, my friend, as am I.....

The EUR/USD is currently flat on the 60 minute chart....maybe we will see commodities chop a little here.
As for the USD/JPY, I think short term it could breakout violently to to the upside.

From forexlive

USD/JPY offers 91.20/30; stops above 91.50
By Jamie Coleman || October 21, 2009 at 12:30 GMT
|| 1 comment || Add comment
USD/JPY is underpinned this morning on several fronts. The dollar is somewhat firmer across the board (save for the pound) while the JPY is being sold against the surging pound as well. GBP/JPY broke through the important 150 level and has rallied as high as 151.10 thus far.

In USD/JPY, order books look something like this: Exporters have sell orders at 91.20/30. Large stops are clustered above the 91.50 level, though smaller stops (the low hanging fruit) are seen in the 91.35 area.

gmak...one question. "the exporters" are they the Japanese or US exporters...?

Best guess is Japanese exporters.




________________________________

Come to think of it I think he meant US exporters, because lower US currency means more exports for them.... Japanese exporters like Toyota, will probably favor a lower Yen.....

Higher exports are probably the only way the US can have anything close to a v-shaped recovery even if there is no double dip.

So the Fed guys talk about raising rates when the time comes... I think it will be like waiting for Godot tho.. ;)

A Euro/Yen cross over 136 is also bullish for equities (Bob English)....just something else to watch...

Got that on the latest EUR pop. We're going to test 495 on the EUR again!

All currencies are at key levels right now.....inflection time...

Bob English this morning also mentions to look out for Beige Book at 2pm which could be implying extension of QE, which of course would mean more liquidity and toilet paper, I mean dollars, for the markets....

The September 22-23 minutes had this regarding the extension of QE:

["Members discussed the importance of maintaining flexibility to expand the asset purchase programs should the economic outlook deteriorate or to scale back the programs should economic and financial conditions improve more than anticipated."]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-leaves-option-qe2

I remember reading that, thanks.....makes me think they will stop at no end to keep reflating this bubble....

or on the contrary, they may hint at NOT extending QE......

Wouldn't that be great....

I have picked my whipping boy for the leg down and it's name is WYNN. I'm hoping for a nice short squeeze into the 1111 high then bombs away.

I like it. Anyone who just raised 1.5 billion in an IPO and goes back to ask shareholders for 500 million more is in trouble.

Played that one to success recently....it has fallen big time already....good call...we need it to bounce a bit however...

Just to keep Mole happy I'm posting something.... my secret Mogambo Bunker Indicator is flashing a Hindenburg AND a Titanic signal which means we crash on Oct. 26--market opens down, tries the usual Bull rally and then plummets hard.

OK this is not serious--but I will be heavy on puts by Friday. This is the weekend to have your positions loaded IMO.

glad to see you here (no matter if you are right or wrong - none beside market is)

If ES goes above 1093 bears are pretty much in deep shit...

Share | Earnings | Times Earnings
WFC .56 53.57
JPM .86 53.48
GS 5.25 35.48
MS .38 81.57

MS appears quite overvalued....something does not make sense

Anna - congrats on ISRG
(On a side note - you've been so right lately that ...may be you should decrease your position sizes for few days? You know what I am saying, right?)