deleted by Steve

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For all the people giving up the ship and thinking we are seeing 1200 let me remind you of something.

WE ARE GOING INTO A DEPRESSION! It's not getting better.

Sorry to tell you that, but that's what's happening. Or do people believe that a Black Panther/Marxist president surrounded ny neo-Marxist, neo-communists, and neo-Maaoists who are spending us to death is good for the economy and is going to have invented a new form of economics and cured the problems of 20+ years of excess?

SNAP OUT OF IT...we are fucked and Denninger is right. There is no money and stocks are at least 2x overvalued.

There...I feel better after the Yankees had bases laoded in the 9th inning with two outs, a 3-2 count, and he pop flies to the SS. They'll win one of two in Yankee Stadium. Rodriquez brought them back last night, but he is still low class and I wish they'd trade him.

And for the few who don't like my economic/political commeentary, piss-off. We will likely meet on the bread line or in cells next to each other.

"I'm an agent of Goldstein...I didn't even know it....my daughter turned me in.....NO...NO...take him, not me!"

Steve

Or do people believe that a Black Panther/Marxist president surrounded ny neo-Marxist, neo-communists, and neo-Maaoists who are spending us to death

Trader Steve, I agree with your market sentiment, but disagree with your description of the President. His economic team is made up of Larry Summers (who is a big proponent of free markets and was on the team with Alan Greenspan in the 90's), Paul Volcker, and others who I would hardly call communist. In fact many of his advisers worked on Wall Street for many years as recently chronicled in the Frontline special, The Warning:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/

The Black Panther comment is factually wrong, and insulting as well.

Maybe it's a generational thing. Would you really have preferred John McCain and Sarah Palin? On second thought, don't answer that.

EDIT: I though t Mole had written that message about Obama...Mole, my apologies.

Mole,

You have no idea of how corrupt Larry Summers is or his dealings, do you? Free markets? He has had millions stuffed into his pockets through a shell corporation AFTER he took his possition. Volker has been shut out and likely sleeps in his office. He's there for credibility, as you have just evidenced by believing he is relevant. I don't see Greenspan around so why even bring up the guy who, with Bush, started this mess?

Mole, listen to Mark Levin for one month and listen to the recordings he plays of the people I have accused speaking from their own mouths. They convict themselves, not by Levin's hand. There is no free market. There are massive violations off the Constitution taking place.

If you disagree that Obama is a Marxist might I suggest you read a little book called "The Communist Manifesto." And if you really want to learn who Obama is, read "Rules for radicals" written by Marxist Saul Alinsky.

Mole, I know my shit when it comes to this. You don't know how wrong you are.

And I'm going to answer on Palin, although I despise McCain, but he would have realized that this war isn't ending and Obama holding up troops is killing men in Afghanistan. Palin is more qualified to be president than Obama and sshe wouldn't have gone on an apology tour as Barry has done. I don't want her as president, but it's got a great deal to do with who you surround yourself with. What has Barry ever accomplished besided being black and not vetted because the media will never vet a black liberal? He did not author a single paper at Harvard and that iss the thing careers are made of, nor did he desire to clerk for anyone. Have you read, "Dream from my Father?" He has haated being half white to the core and he sat in that church aand lisstened to that so-called "Reverand Bigot" spew hate against whitey and had no problem with it. A person is known by the company they keep, and most of his friends suck!

Call it a generational thing (I'm 55) but my father in-law was not at his desk when one of Obama's best friends blew up police HQ in Manhattan. I think that voting for a man who held as one of his best friends (do some reading on The Annenberg Challenge and the millions handed away trying to indoctrinate kids) someone who unabashedly blew up bombs on American soil shows just how low we have sunk as a nation and how our moral depravity has exceeded that of Weimar Germany. Obama could not condemn Bill Ayers bcause he was introduced into politics in his home and worked closely with him in the liberal power circles of Chicago.

Mole, he could get us killed. He is a corrupt weakling and our enemies see him as weak. It's hard to find when he tells the truth he demonstrably lies so often. he iss a product of the corrupt Chicago Thug Machine. He couldn't stand on a podium and debate me, let alone a number of other great conservative minds I could name, and a few off whom I know.

I am stunded that you, of all people, disagree with my accessment. And the Black Panther Marxist is squarely on the mark! And it's insulting to who, Obama? So are his many unconstitutional powers he has been grabbing and telling his czars to implement.

I did not fully realize how much time you put into this site as you clearly haven't had the time to see the obvious about this fraud. You are fortunate I am here to educate those who still feel they must support the bad marriage they entered into.

Steve

P.S. I was never a Bush fan, but I wish he was back now.

Okay Trader Steve, time to take your meds and go to bed now.

Yeah, that's great. You don't really know anything so it's
ad hominem time. Like I've not seen this play before. Pathetic!

You voted for, and support, a guy who holds as a dear friend someone who blew up bombs on American soil, would do so again, and who was responsible for the deaths of three people.

You don't get it, do you? I am here with aa wealth of knowledge to try to leave something to my chiildren so that those who chose to be ignorant (HINT) don't allow this country to be destroyed.

Now let me have a good chuckle that you have mocked me.

Ever hear "Pearls before swine?" And no, it has nothing to do with the flu.

How come those Black Panthers in Philadelphia who smacked clubs into their hands and harassed the white voters and prohibited them from entering have had the charges dropped by Eric Holder? Think he did that all by his lonesome? Do you know who Eric Holder has represented in the past? Hell, do you know what position he holds? You're killing me, Smalls!

Think KKK guys in Selma with bats would have their charges dropped if they intimidated blacks? Heck, the democrats charge disinfranchisement before polls closse every time anyway.

I think we have a term that is applicable here: "Straighten out aand fly right", because at this point, you are a usefill idiot, bereft of the abilty to even backup what you claim is wrong.

Steve

lol...I love it Trader Steve, the hard headed never learn do they?

Hard headed people built this country, went to war for this country, and died for this country.

So you have shown yourself to be extrodinarily naive, not very well eduated or read, and a threat to your own existence and the survival of America. It's your right to be a wimp. I can't make a man out of you. But you have had ample opportunity to refute my points on Obama and his administration and you have played childish games. One day you will grow up. For all I know you might be older than me and never grew up. What seems plain is that you are fine with a weakling being the president who openly stated that he was elected to change America. He got 53.7% of the vote, which is not a mandate, and he did not have a record turnout. Were he not black he would not have gotten the nomination.

You are not even educated well enough to understand he is acting with powers that he does not have, but with the help of the media, he drags his dim-witted head from town to town campaigning insteead of being a leader. It's because he is a mental cae and a man-child. He is already our worst president and has added $10 trillion to the debt in 9 months.

I guess you have a death wish for this wrotten, stinkin nation called America. Perhaps you are a Euroweenie. What you are is unable to articulate your arguments so you look like a fool.

Steve

Live free, die with honor

Damn straight on that one!

It's a foreign concept to liberals. Or do they think the conservatives in Europe have handed their nations over to the hords who now chant their death in the streets?

Steve

Stainless Steel Hamster about to take a nap (yes I do sleep)

From a measured move standpoint, the bearish setup has been invalidated. Retest of the highs seem likely after a shallow pullback. Existing home sales number at 10AM tomorrow
http://tinyurl.com/yl5cagn

Invalidated? It is not at all uncommon for a wave 2 to retrace as it did. Only a new high invalidates the count.

Given that the mkt has been doing all it can to screw counts up, there's as good a chance of a wicked wave 3 Friday as new highs. Also, we have been adding waves and subdivisions for weeks and have only added about 50 S&P points in two months.

The mkt can be counted as needing a minor high for 5 of C of 2. TThat we just didd an A-B-B to Thursday's low is possible as the maarket is so thin that moves are often exhagerated. Gone seem to be the days of C=A.

This is held up on vapors. The talk at New Years Eve parties will be "I knew I should have sold everything out at 10,000.

Chart from Kennystechnicalanalysisblog because I'm too tired to label one myself and he won't mind.


Steve

http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folde...

Notice that I said from a measured move standpoint. There is always a possibility of a lower high but once we have retraced more than 61.8% of a down move, the downtrend can't be trusted from a measured move standpoint

yeppers i say we go 1200 next monthe wpoohoo

time to put the crack pipe down.

avatar, alias, comment can't find a reason not to warn you... sternly

skip the warning and ban. saves time.

he's registered, participates in trading blogs, one stupid post is no reason to ban. Banning is reserved for stupid trends and no common sense retracement
;-)

read on there are more interesting things to comment on this thread

In an effort to contribute to the community here, I created the following SPY chart, to help visualize where the market is potentially headed. I am still quite new to TA, but still, need to start somewhere, and charts seem to be a good contribution.

Please take a look here and let me know what you think.

Best regards.

very nice clean chart
have similar one http://screencast.com/t/bBGeJs52Ir

Thanks David. Do you have an opinion on the MA 89, as it does concern me that this was breached. Do you know how long it has to stay above to count (weekly, monthly)?

I am not a best person to ask about MAs really, have not used those for a long time - this one just happened to be there (forgot the reason I put it there)

hummm bearporn...
after 5 waves down include a retracement

Sorry Mole, Disqus has been screwy all over the place. Comments are important these days, and its amazing what happens when so many people become dependent on one "product" to manage that service, and it frequently goes down. Intense Debate is another name that might be worth looking at. Anyways, I agree on the whipsaws, things really have not made much sense over the last couple of days, just look at the USD Equity Relationship recently http://bit.ly/1faNDq

the crazy hamster is here and the message is clear... and you may buy my registered trademark tinfoil hats

we're scr3wed

plunge protection has several powerful weapons, one is the classic 5 gets overexcited, the other the B overboost, you all know the let's turn an abc into an impulse (best used on 4's) and other family classics as the futures on ritalin are our friends.

what does that mean?

this sorry market had a drop in store at the end of march, the PP worked.
then end of april, 5 gets over excited + b boost + let's break a 4.

what happens B with 0 retraction vis a vi the real expected ending and a miser 38% official from false top.

Now? I should have known when 1020's was broken. with a gap up.

Same old story, as you'll soon discover 1010 should happen, 960 is hard, 885 is a dream that I didn't even extend fully, if it does we might be able to dream of a double bottom.

Any comments?

http://www.imageuploadnow.com/images/1256265426...

Better still, if it stops at any of those points propose bulish counts and targets for further upmovement

I agree SSH, it would appear that there is a reasonable probability of a double bottom, possibly more.

the possibly more is (in real s&p) a certainty. the double bottom depends on rocket man ben, if he wishes to kill any obama reelection he'll pump it beyond 1200

Watch PLD tomorrow

http://i591.photobucket.com/albums/ss359/adamkh...

Mole, excellent chart today on the SPX level of 1082-1083 area. Once I saw that level breached, I got out of my short scalp and reversed it into a long scalp which turned out beautifully at the end of day

>>which turned out beautifully at the end of day<<

Oh....now I know who has my money.

Thanks for sharing.

Steve

I got chopped up little today too, but I'm little paranoid and was kinda expecting it. Just keep it simple and remember your not out to beat the market....your job is to anticipate and flow with the market, not fight it. Only things that go with the flow is dead fish, brown-nosers, and rich traders.

Now, don't misunderstand me - I am not trying to say "Bear are bad" (I, personally, dislike Bulls MORE than Bears), but speaking of "this market is too difficult to trade" - it is, but especially when we confuse "desired" with "real".
This is when, no matter what methodology/technical/fundamental analysis we use - we are getting raped and liberated from our money and our egos.
(Again - don't get me wrong, I have lost enough money trying to short measly moves down of major move up - but that is me - I am Dumb Trader)

Every single day a lot of blogs try to chart every single smallest fucking move that is possible - I don't think unless you are Goldman Stuck super computer you can profit consistently from such tactics.

Again, IF I was persistent enough to explain in my DeMark-ian language that a lot of people see not what it is, but what they WANT to see and saved someone few bucks - then I've done my job.
If no - that will be not the first failure in my life.

Now, let me repost the same fucking chart I kept posting HERE from July 9th
Since that date SPX target WAS (and quite possibly still IS either 1113 or 1120 )
http://screencast.com/t/nvA7yve7L

Now, for those who hope for spectacular fall tomorrow - please DO pray for that NOT to happen, because if SPX will close this week below 1071.49 - bears will have to embrace yet another torturous week.
http://screencast.com/t/0rOKb7yV

Of course, over the period of my trading life I've been speaking to an empty telephone quite often, and I am afraid that for majority of readers of this site (which I REALLY LIKE - it is not so often you see someone who is 1 inch away from perfection and the only step needed to be taken in order to succeed is to get rid of bias. Again - I have a lot of respect for Mole as I do for really hard working people, but....bias...bias...so much money could have been made on the way up...instead of pain and constant "troll posts" - why is that anyone having different opinion is a troll? And...why keep using the same tool that proved to be as effective as flipping the coin?

With all due respect...
DavidDT

P.S. I hope this post will not be taken as disrespect or blame - I don't trade based on ideas on this blog, as a matter of fact - I prefer to blame only one person for mistakes I make and money I lose - it is ME

P.P.S.
What I am trying to say...
Mole and other "biased" people here - a lot of you got skills, talent, diligence, even some flexibility - how much longer will it take for all such to realize that it is BIAS and INABILITY to accept OTHER OPINIONS that caused you to fail?

SPX > 1071.51 and SPX <= 1088.22 would give us a doji and complete the countdown, and everyone will be happy for the weekend.

david you are one of the people i respect and read. your target was correct for a finished move but one leg was missing. we should have had a 450 summer and in 2 years a 900.

did you realy like how you close that bottom on dmark? never asked you that, what was the count and what should seem ok?

best regards

"BIAS and INABILITY to accept OTHER OPINIONS"

BINGO Mr. DavidDT, just BINGO.

dg you were this close from being considered a troll, but you do have some non abusive remarks and one right idea. the idea being gold.

Nevertheless you might consider that from 2000 and 2007, 2008 markets do crash nominaly and gold under those circunstances is not the best option. any minute now gold can crash back to 800. one such moment would happen without 300 b and program trading with FE insurance. I thought about doing 2xshort equity and 2x long gold, but look at 2003-2005. manipulation on both markets.

and don't insult EWT i'm sure it's been thoroughly used from 87 onwards to lead the herd to higher ground on bubbly thoughts.

how much longer brainiac?

"the EWFF's [Elliot Wave Financial Forecast] trader's portfolio has endured a staggering annualized loss of 18.1% over the 20 years through September." [circa 2005]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-waves-...

"Prechter has been out of the stock market since before -- note carefully, before -- the 1987 Crash."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-prechters-b...

I rest my case.

to be fair the same article states
"Furthermore, prior to 1987, Prechter had some extraordinarily prescient calls. They make him disturbing to ignore, especially if you think the market may be approaching a major juncture.

For example, most pertinently, he predicted that the Dow would exceed 2,700 when it was mired in triple digits in the 1970s. "

But as the end result it proves only one thing - if you call the market often enough - eventually yuo will get it right

his 87 call was good, nyse was stoped, PPT created... we've been living in a bubble

FURTHERMORE is call was excelent mr goldbug, go see my chart (in dannerics') and see what happened to REAL S&P after his automn 2005 call for a drop

have you read my comment on that? plunge protection uses EWT

as well as DeMark's indicators - why do u think Obama assured public in the beginning of March that "we are fine"?

I asked on another post, for dmark... was the 666 bottom "clean"? for me it isn't

Say it's clean and I'll say they use dmark (reasonable, you say it's a "non artistic EWT", and could expain why it sounds false on EWT)

cannot get any "cleaner" (if you mean - "callable")
weekly SPX http://screencast.com/t/E6JxlfnKJ
monthly http://screencast.com/t/n9r7oqtQR

P.S> DeMark has very little to do with EW, the only indicator which attempts to utilize it is TD D-Wave

will have to study dmark... i just started EWT in june, and standard TA in march

skip both and go right to the source of light (falling asleep here - can you twit me your chart?)
night all

i don't twit

http://www.imageuploadnow.com/images/1256265426...

best regards

David has good comments, and they are reasonable points that all traders must keep dear to his/her wallet. Don't fall in love with your position and don't fight the trend. These are basics, and there is no point in arguing against them. For example, (me, another dumb ass trader), I was short till January and switched to long (got screwed till March) but held on till Spy 1050 then I went short again (got screwed) but I am holding on. If I was born smarter and had ears to listen to senses, I would have waited till Market turned first but it is so fucking hard to convince myself that I can't tell the future.

the funny thin gis that even when we think that we "just staying with the trend" - we still are trying to predict future.
As of today, in spite of waiting for this price levels/point in time I myself feel totally exhausted - right at the time when (as I keep thinking for a while now) market suppose to turn. It is battle fatigue, as every active trader I wasted myslef on day to day noise and when the bigger objective is right here - I am getting doubtful - probably just like you when you covered and went long in January.

Here is a chart similar to one CC posted - if not NOW and HERE then WHEN?
http://screencast.com/t/bBGeJs52Ir

1195 in february... have you seen the chart and the numbers in my "crazy hamster rant" in this thread? several identical values I would say.

Please do check it out (I haven't used anything from your charts, since you went on vacation I lost the tradingto win habbit)

Best regards

I feel like I am still on vacation...or wish I was
as for "crazy rant" - I had fun reading/translating it and ended up writing something in the same language in my blog's comments :)

could you post the lin to the comment? didn't find it at the site

did you see the chart?

Everyone gets what they want out of the market, no?

Ed Seykota

See my other post. I argued with him over a dinner that he was being philosophical and looking at self-destructive types after they blew out and using them as examples. My brother was pissed, but Ed asked me to tell him why I really thought that was not true. The dinner was at my brother's apartment and he also wanted to know what his wife thought of the markets, She knew nothing about them. Very odd guy, IMO.

I never knew exactly how he traded, but I think he had access to computers long before others did in an age when a 5 and 10 day MA caught the trend. I used to see guys come up with reams of paper to my brothers office trying to show Joey DiLiberto (offered $28 million for his clearing firm and died broke) how they could make money with computers.

Steve

>>Everyone gets what they want out of the market<<

I think that is complete and utter bullshit! A trader years ago named Ed Seykota said that at a dinner I had with him (my brother was his broker for a few years) and I said if that were true I would naturaly make the right decision (back to a Seldon Crisis) each time and would not have bad days.

That psychologist Van Tharp stated that and I told him that he was close, but wrong. He argued that if one has a high need for excitement they will bring it into the market. Yes, that's quite possible. But there is no excitment at all in getting your throat ripped out when a market catches a wave three and you are standing in the trading pit, didn't see it coming, and you can't find a bid to hit. He failed to distinguish between the excitement of knowing that yoiur parachute did open, and the elevated sensations of realizeing that it had tangled and that the "excitement" was a form of terror.

Steve

go long
the fundamentals are strong
the recession is over
OVER !!!
wait for the pullback and go long
AMZN AAPL new highs
BAC from 2 to 18
what's wrong with you ?

where would AAPL be in 5 years, in 10 ?
to many traders - few investors.

Would you repost this in 2 months...please. Thx

is not it the way "Customer Service" suppose to work?

1. "We undelstand Youl Concerlns"
2. "We are dumb enough to not to know what you know, but let us [L]ead the book anyways"
3. "If you don't like what you paid for - go fuck youLselves"
end of script

I really like Disqus. In my opinion it is the best comment system on the Internet. It's still a Startup, and these guys aren't charging any money. Understandably, they have not worked out all the kinks yet, but it really is exciting technology.

forums exist, existed before, this product can't be sold, revenues must be generated from partnerships abd advertising

Most people are using the wrong scale of measurement - the wildly fluctuating dollar. The market can go anywhere in dollar terms. I terms of real money, i.e., Gold, the market is already dropping.

here, so you can find it easyer (up on the exchange with bloodwine)

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2009/1...

NO KIDDING!

try looking for my posts on that (specialy with a 68-81 comparison) or ultrabears charts, or the interests of bloodwinw.

what happens is gold should make a major dop to 700's 800's even if it rises to 1500.

Beside paper gold is heavily manipulated (otherwise you would have had 2k gold in april) and real gold is probably on the "to forbid" list, do you know what happened in the 30's and in the 70's?

at this stage there should be a correction or a new harder crash will happen (before next elections). Strategy

Probably more like:

1. Yeah, we get it. There's a problem.
2. We are looking into it.
3. We all take a 15 minute mental health break whenever anyone complains, so if you call too often, nothing will get done around here.
4. A mess of complaining emails means an extra long lunch or an early end of day.
5. We want happy customers, so if you are not happy, please stop being a customer. Please.

Follow what is working http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/2009/10/onl...

Dow Jones Stock Trading Chart_ 10/22/2009

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3FqVAsGsuY

possible fractal?

http://screencast.com/t/rT2d0PI3KVO5

I hope you're right... that would make my day tomorrow :)

In regards to the difficulties of trading this market, I think the question we all need to ask ourselves is why are we trading?

Are we trading to make money or are we trading to be right?

Trading to be right is a dangerous game and is usually based on ego. Once you realize this, you free yourself up to make money which ever way the market goes...

Of course it doesn't make trading any easier but, in the end, it is always easier to flow with the river than against it.

That being said, I am probably the biggest contrarian trader ever and I have played this market short since the rally began in March in almost 99% of my trades. However, I have been profitable because I'm not looking for home runs rather I'm taking what the market gives which is usually 1-2% retracements at most.

Now, if I had asked myself that important question, answered it honestly and then executed my strategies accordingly, I would be much more profitable. But even though it's clear that the trend has been up, I still struggle to play this market from the long side.

Anyways, regarding the market, I think we are still in a topping pattern and will be looking to sell again at 1100 and higher up to 1120 (if we can get there).

Hi Audio I couldn't agree more, I love to have bearish moves as you fall down a mountain much faster than going up, but these days it has just been brutals for us who are bears at heart!
I will trade either way, to make $$$$ I don't care what you call me LOL

1121 is where I have us going (topping) next stop would be 1229 (61.8% from the highs in 2007)

Very nice sir.

it's hard to go long with insane P/Es and the economy in the toilet, isn't it? Knowing any trigger event could knock Mohammed off the mountain

I agree BW but that's what I thought with AMZN and look at this biatch 56 PE (ridiculous) :(

RE: P/E

You are absolutely right....remember Oct 10, 2008 and how the trader was clearly shown that the govrnment will intervene? (word from the pit was GS bought hard through everyone)

If one reads Taleb's "Black Swan" I say good luck to those who go long anything but options where they know that "zero" will not wipe them out.

We live in a "Black Swan" world because should Israel hit Iran with any type of nuclear device the market does not open as oil goes to an unknown price and we consider world-wide deoression.

Is it likely tomorrow? No. Is it possible tomorrow? Yes.

Companies are run with many CPAs worried. Just think of Arthur Anderson and Enron. While perhaps you will miss the upside, you will not endure an event where you start looking at what value your home will bring as you can't make the payment.

We do not know the unknown. But we do know that there is no news that will make you walk into a 2000 point up day while the opening call on Sept 18th or 19th of 2008 was that due to MM liquidation after a form (Putnam?) said it's $1 value could not be met. That 2000 points was said to be where the Dow was set to open.

This is, and has been since Oct 2008, a commodity market. And while amazing hurricaines can destroy sugar crops overnight, and volcanos can destroy 100% of a nation's coffee crop causing a 20% or higher opening the next day, the only news in equities that can cause a move like that is going to be bad news.

Steve

P.S. One more scenario: What happens in 50 armor plated vans pull into 50 malls on "Black Friday" and each slaughter 200 people or more before stopped? What if a number of grade schools are taken over like the one was in Russia? Either event would cause us to sink further into a depression. Is our government worried about those events? I say they are. About a year into the Iraq war they found someone with a portable computer with a floor plan of all the schools 10 minutes from a district I lived in. To those who say the war has gone on to long I always ask, "what have you sacrificed." To those who say the's no threat I ask them what they have read. In no cases do they ever have any ide of what they are talking about. And THAT is what makes it so hard for the troops to do their job as they don't get the support they deserve.

Estimates are $3-5 Trillion cost of Iraq, for "a threat" that nobody can put their finger on. We have no plan. Even Brezinski (architect of "the threat") is saying that the masses are now "politically awake" and we need to find a purpose for all of this intervention.

Bottom line: dropping bombs from Virginia cubicles or urban assault does nothing to make people like us. self serving madness that mildly protects our oil interests and private war contractors (corporations).


about the black swan: agreed the heavy risks in equities are all to the downside - people tend to forget that, really it is a great time to be a bear

I´ve been recovering lately going long, mainly the Aussie since the carry is so comprably fat. Just look at the chart for the good risk/reward zones and read the tape, who cares that fundamentals don´t support it, you´re only in it for a trade right?

And yet, I have a feeling just as most dedicated bears resign themselves to swing trading the time to hold positions long-term will dawn.

Jack has me practicing patience :)

What I really learned from fighting the tape the past two months is that no matter what, trending up, trending down, sideways, the best way to generate alpha (and assuming you use consistent money management, compound gains) is by trading hedges. You will generally have an opportunity at least once a day to pick up a hedge even if you´re riding a long-term campaign in the other direction, if you have a margin account this is even better. Then when you sell the hedge for a profit, you´d not only locked in gains when you got the hedge, but you´re now generating alpha, the same as if you sold the top of wave 1 and re-bought in the pocket of wave 2. You dig me? This is a game and there´s no reason to be bored, though that´s preferable to frustrated over-trading and ridiculous drawdowns.

Understood. I'm just whining... had a bad day :)

I lost 20% trying to catch the wave B long (or at least, it could be a wave B) on the AUD and then made it back when I finally did catch the bottom, if I had held until now I'd be up 30% net. You get what you lever for.

A little bedtime story for you permabears http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjBNjc9Bo

I have sent things like that to people and they turn it off once they relize how bad it is.

Since I have a degree in economics and some masters credits and used to follow this crap as a trader, I have known it for a few years. I think there are a lot of people out there who are not as happy a camper as they once were because part of them now says, "we're screwed", and they fear for the future for themselves and primarily for their kids.

Steve

i think AMZN is at all time highs. from what i can tell it's cracked thru 1999 prices. time to party like it's 2009...wild market. are things really that much better than 10 yrs ago?

Look at how it made the previous high at 101.09... huge gap up & closed on the highs, next day it gapped back down and started a downtrend

http://img43.imageshack.us/i/200910221801.png/

it broke 113 AH? seriously? ((rolling eyes))

i thought the closing all time high was 106 and change in Dec of 99. did it
do 113 intra-day?

i wrote you back, but i see what you are referencing - intra-day. when i say 'all time high' by default i am using closing highs. i believe (at least the traders i have worked with) use only closing prices for triggers. that way key reversal days take on more meaning. (rolling eyes)

LOL... gotcha
BTW.... wasn't rolling my eyes at you... rolling eyes at AMZN skyrocketing with a 60+ p/e to tech bubble prices in an economy where the consumer is starving

understood. i am rolling eyes cause you were...in general disbelief...

deleted.

I was playing around with various indicators etc and I found this interesting buy signal for $SPX using 15 minute bars. Basically, you buy when the 38 period momentum has declined and come to an extreme low point, followed by the MS (market sentiment indicator) coming to an extreme low point followed by the mcclellan indicator increasing. Make of it what you will, but I just thought it was interesting. I could not come up with a good sell indicator with this trio yet. Chart: http://screencast.com/t/mOMEfOR3

>>Basically, you buy when the 38 period momentum has declined and come to an extreme low point, followed by the MS (market sentiment indicator) coming to an extreme low point followed by the mcclellan indicator increasing. <<

As someone who spent more hours with TradeStaion that I care to think of I have a suggestion: Take each indicator and move them slightly. For example, what are the results with a 37 bar and a 39 bar. And what if the extreme low point (I assume you mean a new low) is 1 value above and not a new low?

My point is that is is amazingly easy to curve fit past data. A friend of mine with a photographic memory used to develop systems with 90% winner and no more than 2 losses in a row. In real-time they were death.

The less stringent a system the better. If you need an RSI turn from above 80, make sure an RSI from about 75 doesn't have horiffic results. If you can move your variables around a bit and performance doesn't become untradeable, then go baack to data from 2 years ago and see what happens.

Steve

Hi,

I looked at your chart. Can you use opposing extremes as sell signals?
Also, would you get false signals in a downtrending market?

Using the converse as a selling indicator yields a lot of false indications, unfortunately. I can't test in a downtrending market as TOS wont let me do 15 min bars further back than 60 days.

Yeah... it's been a while since we've seen a downtrend.
Play with it. The indicators all tell us something... some more than others and so much of it is left to interpretation and execution.
I would be concerned that if we see a change in market direction, you would get false buy signals.
MOM and MSI are going to spend alot more time at the lower extremes then. And don't forget to use PRICE as an indicator :)

Good Luck

I found the indicator for selling, negative momentum&MS divergence: http://screencast.com/t/pDRrVZBrARX1

Price :) As long as it's going trending up, you're in good shape!
Do you get the MSI intraday? I use stock charts and it's an end of day number only
Are you using prophet?

Yeah ProphetCharts. It is intraday.

I get intraday price and other indicators on stockcharts, but don't get MSI or McC Osc intraday... and I don't even think they have MOM
It's sad really

Wow ..what a nutty day.....It wasn't so bad...I only lost my lunch ..eerheeem ..and .money I made yesterday...This is typical of a Whippy Top....Anyone think Disqus is managed by the feds as well? Maybe they can get some minni tarp $$$ to fix their SHs%$#T !

AMZN up 15% now after hours. That's going to be one massive gap to fill (plus the gap at 84-86).

I'm getting tired of every friggin' dip being bought. I really thought yesterday was going to be more than a one day wonder! This tape is nucking futs!

We are dealing with dark, sinister forces!

Steve

Oprah?

Hello....a little voice from Sweden. I trade on the european stockmarkets and I capitulated today as a bear. Maybe thats a good sign for you. I have been bearish since july and got burned pretty good by now. So now im full cash and will be until this shit is over. I have been reading this site for a while and think you guys are wonderful...I have come to the conclusion that it will not happen now...Because if it does everything will go to hell. Think of it - If a real blowout comes tomorrow than its over for capitalism. I dont think everyone understands what powers are behind this but they sure dont want a blowout on the markets....please send me a mail if you want to know anything about the feelings and sayings here in Europe about the markets here. And remember the saying...."Let the trend be your friend". Ill stick to that now!!!

you've been reading wrong blogs
...and - it's been over for capitalism long ago

I think you missunderstod me. I am the biggest bear on the planet........

that is exactly what I meant - you've been reading biased blogs and it caused loss of your money.
Market does not care about our opinions - and having such is lethal for our money.

You can ONLY make money (of course given that you capable of trading at all) IF
"You have no loyalty to the trade" - and bias does just that - glue you to one side of the trade.

P.S. as I can see from your avatar it is not the only bias you have...

Capitulate when we close above 1120, which we won't.

We are seven range closes into what is at minimum an important interim top:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

We have closed in a range like this more than three times on seven occasions since June. Six were important interim tops, the seventh was the bottom in July.

The only other time with more than six closes was the end of the first wave up in June. This is the end of the third wave. It is written in great letters of fire on the wall. Don't capitulate because the market has lost all predictability at a point where we are in a forest of termination patterns, up against key resistance and putting in a series of range tops that have reliably signalled tops in the past.

If we close above 1120, we will be there, but not until then.

Well said :)

It's still so tempting when we get this close to try to call the top - especially when we can already see many topping indicators like the candle pattern you mentioned.

When you start to compile the list, it's quite amazing actually...
the VIX spike yesterday that appeared to break the downward slide
20 SMA on the 1 min CPCE clearly trending up (bearish) earlier this week
TRIN acting confused
Seeing a lower low yesterday (I almost forgot what that looked like :)
1 min $NYUPV:$NYDNV trading in a softer range the past few days looks like we finally have a fight between the bulls and bears.
10 Day SMA on the ADL returning (almost) to 120
McClellan Osc below Zero in a falling channel
New Highs-New Lows hitting a near record high of 430 on 10/14/2009 and turning down
Stocks above their 50 day moving average teasing us with a bear cross - how many times now??
And the Bullish Percent Index, High-Low Index, and Summation Index all still high, but trying to roll over
Financials and the Banking Index with several lower lows and lower highs
Muni's taking a 10% plunge in a matter of days

I know I'm missing some...
But geez... how many do we need?

I guess we need a Hindenburg Omen :)

We're so close now, but we're not there yet. There are signs of imminent trend change everywhere but the bears are hailing every move down as the end of the rally.

I'm happy to see us back up today. I was expecting the top towards the end of next week and we're back on track for that now.

We were trading in a range 925 - 945 at the top in June. We threw over it for one day to make the top at 957 and I called it with katzo7, albeit we thought it was the end of the rally. We closed that day back in the range and the next day closed there too.

We're trading in the 1074 to 1102 range now. I think there's a very good chance we'll throw over again to 1110 - 1115 and that will be the top. I'll be shorting that.

I completely agree with your targets. I guess patience is the name of the game at this point :)

As Joe8888 said yesterday, the second mouse gets the cheese!

:-)

haha! good one :)

This market is everything but predictible... its irrational and confusing because we dont know what new rules are being made...Luckily I bought 4,3 kilo of physical gold in july. And thats my big hedge againts the dollar thats everyone here in Europe thinks will collapse.....

A little bedtime story for you permabears http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjBNjc9Bo

I think gold will do well the next few years.

Until I see Eric return with his rooftop the bears will keep celebrating every 3 down, getting wood over a long C wave and thinking it is kickoff for P3. I agree no indicator works presently. Mole, just shut your blog down and fu the leeches. Open shop up again after we gap through the trendline from March. This rally is craptastic

I really like his roof top. He is on that top since July of this year.

fucking thing is a tower now

Updated version of the wedges & ranges chart I posted yesterday:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

We have now put in a seventh close within the range, and if this is the end of the rally, then there's no reason to think that we would put any fewer closes in the range than the ten we did at the top in June.

The good news is that all six times that we have put in more than three closes in a range like this since June, it has marked a significant top.

The other good news is that as long as we stay within the range, we are in scalper heaven, and this could last a few more days yet. If Joe's 41 day pivot cycle is still valid, it will last until Thursday or Friday next week:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

Joe, I've reposted your chart here. If you mind that at all please just say & I'll edit it out.

Cheer up everyone, we're almost there! kemal_1 was bullish for today and he was right as usual. He forecasts that we will top within a few days, and the bulls will have to fight through a thicket of termination patterns and resistance trendlines to prove him wrong. This rally is way too tired and long in the tooth to manage that.

Joe's chart:

http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack...

I know this myself but haven't been following it, but the long trend is still up. In that case if you're bearish stay delta neutral with pairs trades - for example short whatever you want, and long the leader.

Eg. short cof, long appl or short cat, long aapl; short amzn, long aapl. short spy, long aapl? (insert whatever you want for aapl)

I have found that the bulls can usually push a rally when the 60 min Stochastic becomes oversold on the SPX.

I just have to say, WHAT A CRAZY TAPE this ES is printing!!!

Again I'm away from my chart setup. But for kicks pull up today's intraday chart for OJ.X9 futures on ICE. Flip that left to right, as if in a mirror, and it looks like what ES did today.

That's right: Orange Juice. Looks like a 5-day market profile value area play there.

And with that I'm off to the supermarket. See you on the other side. :)

OK so the Four Horsemen have conquered once again--AMZN blows higher on a PE of 60+. That leaves very little in the way of euphoria drivers next week. China reported a 8.9% GDP gain but seeing as how the numbers are basically cooked and whatever real gain actually occurred was driven by their spending 10%of GDP in two quarters, the weakness in Shanghai (stimulus is over, boo-hoo) is a harbinger.

This looks like topping activity IMO. The wildest swings occur at tops as Bulls attempt to regain control but sellers have itchy trigger fingers. Things are very close to rolling over IMO. The VIX has dropped again which sets up a nice reversal, if not tomorrow then Black Monday the 26th.

"AMZN blows higher on a PE of 60+"

Amazing, huh?... and it's close to making all time highs after hours. Unbelievable

Here's what I posted on Sunday, sometimes I'm dense and a bit lucky - let's see
if 1067-1071 actually holds:

"Fair possibility that the first 2 days of this week may be red, if so 1067-1071
looks within reach in SPX. I may sell more longs near the open, probably a good chunk of the TNA (currently 27% of portfolio). Think there might
be a good chance of seeing 1158 by Thanksgiving."

Here's a newer tune, hope you enjoy it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eu4Aj2JMwCI

Best of luck rats.

Maybe we gap up early, then reverse. Indicators looked weak for the rally.

Big picturaaa.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_adh1NtKpt0M/SuDC_xfdT...
as you can see 1138 is next stop. Coupled with my analysis of DXY 1256 is not so distant possibility. On fumes of DIG and USO.

>>as you can see<

Sorry...but you're going to have to do better than that chart. What was that done with, crayons?

Seriously, you pop by to a bearish group AFTER the mkt closes to tell everyone "as you can see" when two months ago you were shorting AAPL. So, "as you can see" that call was wrong!

I would love to see charts where there is a methodology...that chart wasn't it.

The devil is in the details....details, man, details!

Steve

Good memory. I got burnt on Apple that time. Ha-ha.
I'm still confident in my apple call. See the bollinger band where I shorted and where it's now. There will be big red candle eventually to touch upper bollinger. Unfortunate, bollinger band approach generates big profits and even bigger losses. My losses were hedged puts.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_adh1NtKpt0M/SuDSwli9E...
Whole idea of posting here is to get a response and to get interaction. Get constructive ass kicking. I'm not interested in proving anything to anyone. Didn't get any constructive comments yet.

>>Didn't get any constructive comments yet.<<

Perhaps it's only me...but I looked at that chart and thought "crayons." Your chart doesn't say anything to me. That's constructive criticism. If you want to point out what should "clearly" be seen, I'm all eyes.

Steve

From what I know about Point and figure charts there now fake breakouts and fake breakdowns. That's what I wrote about dollar - its next support is 71. It certainly might reverse, but from P&F point dollar cannot find support.
We broke 1078 and it was a resistance over a decade now. Next minor resistance is 1138. Oil broke out. Dollar, oil are troubling signs. I wonder if we will have inflation at producer level and minimal inflation on consumer side. Just a guess.

This was really a lesson how long market can get irrational. AAPL kept pushing and pushing. S&P at least has huge amount of vacuum to push into.

Yes...

Two Things To Remember:

1. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
2. Never underestimate the steps a goverment will take to perpetuate it's existence

Both haven't gone anywhere since yesterday.

Bear Call on AMZN
Bull Call on FSLR
Calls on AIG

Wish me luck!

Basically we all need it in this crazy market.

none of my indicators work anymore

>> Maybe it is time for "method rotation" - there are plenty of things that can be working even on the bearish side...where you can "invent" indicators (good old candlestick analysis + sector relative strength tells for example)...today a good opportunity setup with the homebuilders which were punished previously (a great place to trade in and out)

spwra seems to have a smal problem getting smashed:) bad I am hoping flsr stinks up the joint looks like a head and shoulders on a 2 year chart

Sadly, reports of an imminent market crash seem to have been greatly exaggerated. Or could this be a topping process?

Have long dated puts on AMZN and AXP. The only strategy working for me is selling way out of the money calls at peaks on junk like CAR, JWN, HOT, and then buying them back for 10-20% profit on the inevitable drop.