Weird Channel

I drew this short term channel one a few days ago – but kept it on because it keeps getting touched:

So, I have to ask – why is this one so important?

This entry was posted on Friday, October 23rd, 2009 at 1:33 pm and is filed under Market Outlook. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • Could be a leading expanding diagonal first minute wave of P3. Could also be the end of a triangular fourth of the current wave up. Got to get lower than Thursday's low to tentatively confirm the diagonal.
  • brendl
    Man...you are spot on...reading my mind. i really believe that the GS guys et co. read these blogs, determine where trader consensus exists, and make trades accordingly. (ie opposite) If i would offer anything that has worked for me it is having option spread trades in place - that i dont really trade, - and I look at intra-day extremes to scalp a few points on reversals. have a good weekend all.
  • jaxon
    Mole-i am in total agreement with you. we get conditioned. it is what Prechter refers to as the paradox and irony of the market. i've learned a great deal about bear markets. it has been a very costly education. however, i am drinking the EWI koolaid on this one. my ratio analysis leads me to believe that 1080 was the orthodox top and that we are now rolling over. as you say though, we won't have confirmation of this until we breach some significant support.

    BTW, although they are minor, dare i say i haven't seen this many H&S in a very long time.
  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
  • MMs just sweeping up stops as fast as they can the thugs
  • dollar
    GS new LOD
  • wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee POS hahaha
  • newbear
    Couldn't be happier.
  • dollar
    BKX LOD
  • lol @ amzn....

    http://screencast.com/t/jrcEPKfRhL

    Im' losing a bunch of money on that but whatever. can't help but laugh

    and yeah I took more put spreads on it... 95/90 dec and 90/85 nov (super speculative)
  • can you say capitulation??? great time to short this POS :)
  • hahah for real!
  • hehehehe :)
  • Blind_Squirrel
    Sol Long 1500 ES
  • colonel_bleep
    Guy has cojones, for sure. And is not afraid to show it. After a short string of losses, his last 3 trades netted him 900k - yes 900k.
  • I wouldn't be doing that if I were him, but hey hope he does have a stop
  • newbear
    Lately he has been using stops and publishing them, I know in the past they were mental stops
  • I hope for his sake he did have a stop in :)
  • colonel_bleep
    Posts all his trades. I don't visit the sight all that much, and SOL doesn't talk market action or methodology - just trades. His stop is 1074
  • bergs
    Starting the push down to our target range. Out at the 1050 range.
  • Blind_Squirrel
    Potential Double cycle CIT @ around 3:35 be careful out there
  • colonel_bleep
    BIDU big move, running up hard to new heights. Probably on Unicom news. 20$ rally in front of earnings on Monday. Amazing stock.
  • harveydent
    insight to where it could land by earnings? 445-450 possibly...?
  • CandleStickEmUpper
    good short point
  • I think it is run up into earnings my rpice target was 440 so expect it to roll soon :)
  • colonel_bleep
    1.80 est, 1.90 whisper. The China Unicom search partnership is big - BIDU will be default engine on all of CU's 3g handsets. Hard to tell if the air is getting thin at these levels, tho.
  • If the volume it at all time highs on AMZN then that would be capitulation and we should see some selling next week.
  • GMTA
  • Never mind great minds :)
  • right - "too many mind" is baaaad
  • ???
  • which it looks to be
  • bshah
    just for fun, is there a name for the CANDLE on AMZN's amazing chart today? I don't think "Engulf" is enough... How @ Swallowing...
  • 127% is a perfect short a lot of time, I'll see what I can do next week
    http://screencast.com/t/2iLAGCARW4D
  • jaxon
    thought about hedging but this thing is too pretty a top to mess with. don't want to over trade. i'll probably be sorry. (-:
  • DesertEagle
    Zero volume rally...sweeeet.
  • As I said before - I'm at the point where I want to walk away and come back once 1040 has been breached with confidence. This tape is completely insane.
  • 1040 sounds good, but I will begin to be happy below SPX 1050
  • Eva S
    Guys, first we need to close below 1074 to even start dreaming of going much lower.
  • this is where I am not quite normal - I am SCARED of SPX closing this week below 1071.49
  • insite
    why are you scared of a close below 1071
  • I live is the weird DeMark-ian world with a lot of silly cancellation rules :)
  • The only way to trade this is to hedge this and pull off the one that isn't working....wait 10 minutes and rehedge.... other than that whipsaw city.
  • jaxon
    ya hve to admit it IS a pretty top. shampoo fractals.
  • jaxon
    wouldn't be surprised to see the thing jump up and test the head @ 1088, or so, but i think we are gonna stair step down for awhile. i would love to see a lower low but don't think it's in the cards today. but then it IS the 80th anniversary day of the 1929 crash kickoff.
  • DesertEagle
    It's mentally draining. But it's their sandbox. They make the rules.
  • KidDisco
    little divergence on zero lite...
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Looking for a buy signal / exit strategy now to unload my IWM 60 puts, that served me well on the ride down. Clear support on IWM at 60 so far today and the currency and commodity pits are closed or closing.

    If yesterday was the Orange Juice tape, today is the Econometric Model Program Trading tape.

  • tradejane
    >today is the Econometric Model Program Trading tape.

    You're being too kind. I call days like these the "bust your (basket) balls day."
  • Tronacate
    I consider the Russell a better leading indicator......
  • standard_and_poor
    Waiting to see if 1067-1071 spx holds.
    Tony Robbins just told me "man's success or failure, happiness or unhappiness depends on his attitude".
    But I am a "market bug" (a nod to centrifugal), a good day for me is when I'm not eaten by a humming bird.
  • gregn
    I posted these last night, but I want to repost to get some feedback. I perhaps found another good buy/sell indicator for the SPX using Market Sentiment+38 period Momentum+McClellanOsc on 15min bars.

    Buy: http://screencast.com/t/mOMEfOR3
    Buy when momentum negatively diverges (in relation to price) to an extreme low, followed by sentiment approaching extreme low then followed by McClellan increasing.

    Sell: http://screencast.com/t/pDRrVZBrARX1
    When there is negative divergence (in relation to price) in momentum and market sentiment.

    Give me your feedback.
  • PRSGuitars
    The bears are furious!

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/10/23/russia.skating.bear.death/index.html

    No, really, this is a crazy market -- trading both directions until I can discern WTF is actually going on. Just got back to my setup so we'll see how things go the remaining hour and a half...

    Best of luck everyone!
  • as sad as it is - faith is not without irony - killed administrator's last name [Dmitry Potapov] is a nick name for bear
  • Scoops
    Selling the rip on Deckers stop above highs.
  • Scoops
    Well that makes another failed attempt at new highs. It's quite simple and the rr this morning was astounding. I took full advantage of it. Also managed to scalp 11 points off the futures. Until we cross 1101.73 we are pointed down, plain and simple.
  • hank30
    Look at the leading sector. Has not moved yet, relative to the weakness in the market. $ndx!!!
  • Darkthirty
    Then it's not leading...is it
  • vision_invisible
    Swine flu is at January levels. This quarter will see massive swine flu hit to "public" consumer discretionary. Ideas: EAT, DIN, DRI on any bounce.



  • hank30
    Bad news for the bears, there is no conviction on the downside of the market. Just small pullbacks. After seven months, don't you think that the bears would have a better perfomance today. The game continues.
  • KidDisco
    i wonder how much jeff bezo's net worth went up just today.
  • I heard 2 billion yes, with a B
  • wex
    At least he built a business that people want to use. He's earned it.
  • Oh yea, I am not dissing him, I just dont agree with him...
  • fa_q
    I could be wrong, but I thought I read that the Bezos family owns 1/3 of the float of AMZN. So that would be about 110m shares x 23 bucks today
  • Guest
    You ever think about shorting Amazon?
  • fa_q
    Hahaha. No. I like money.

    I never touch individual names. I rarely touch an index - although once IYR drops below the middle bollinger band it will be a sweet short. I really only trade futures for tax reasons.
  • don't forget his Honda
  • innatedc
    Gang my presence here will be a little sparse for I am focusing on a new trading system and running alot of backtesting and simulations.....will try and post some charts this weekend.....G/L rats and go get em.
  • Good luck Inna hope it works great for you:)
  • hank30
    Tape is about to reverse. Watch out, bears.
  • defleming
    why?
  • hank30
    Better than watching this tape all day long.
  • THAT is your reasoning?

    NEXT...
  • hank30
    This trend from the March lows had followed the weekly chart from March 2003 until 2004. We may have a decent selloff at year end. So far I need to see more conviction from the bears.
  • hank30
    Holding shorts for a later day, yet this action is not encouraging. Scalping have been covering the cost of holding shorts. Until I see a solid retracement in GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, I will be suspicious of any pullback.
  • gregn
    Is that just a gut feeling or are you an GS insider like Anna?
  • hank30
    I wish. Would be spending this time in The Maldives.
  • Tronacate
    That would be nice........scuba all day long
  • SpeedSkt1
    index p/c ratio continues to run under 1.00, even as the market pulls back further intraday.......this is a change in behavior......seems like the mouth-breathers are very confident that this will just lead to another immediate dip-buying opportunity
  • tradejane
    Crystal ball says DOW drop to 9850 area, then run up to 10080 area. If DAX doesn't make a new high in the meantime... that may very well be The Top (tm).
  • innatedc
    +1 on the observation and insight.
  • fa_q
    Well, well, well...we hit my 1073 a bit sooner than I thought. This could get ugly. Like 1060-1064 ugly if it's not saved.
  • I am looking for 1064 Fa_q after this bounce is over with :)
  • Absofreakinglutely ;)
  • Darkthirty
    As a b of c or 4 of 1 of 3?
  • AS2009
    You are going to kill the longs Anna :)
  • john_matrix
    i only got 1077.1
  • fa_q
    ES
  • john_matrix
    it must be some trendline from the top
  • I'm seeing IYR being aggressively bought on each new low.
  • tradejane
    Sold half of SRS at 9.7, will sell the rest when UYG covers its gap. Then looking to buy into UYG for run up to 6.07 area.
  • Good trade! Where do you see this UYG gap at?
  • tradejane
    5.91 - could overextend a bit of course. :) Those kind of stocks rarely leave gaps that's what makes them so interesting.
  • centerline
    Just popping in to say Hi. Computer crashed AGAIN. Just getting back up and running today. Leaving early to take kids camping (why oh why did the cold snap here in Florida not last?).

    Scalping some SPY puts today only. Would like to see some of the gaps below from earlier month get filled. Otherwise, staying out of the chop.
  • hi Center :) hope you stay up and running.
  • gregn
    Your strong selloff today call was pretty, pretty good. Woman's intuition?
  • Well early this morning with the Blowout earnings on AMZN and MSFT and then better than expected housing data, that told me a beartime story LOL
  • hank30
    Time to cover short positions.
  • Rightside_ot_trade
    "why is this weird channel so important?"
    Because it's evil?
    Because it will be resistance on our way down (2)?
  • mmTesla
    Taking XLU off, I think it has become a bigger bullish trade. Above VPOC and below VWAP, also low volume, I expect breakout to the upside. Just my .02
    http://screencast.com/t/McsV7I5CVke
  • roncofooddehydrator
    Bought FAZ based on CCI(50) signal on the 2hr chart.
  • PeterK80
    AS did I ron... looking for XLF to go to 14.75-14.80 area
  • mugabe
    The Dow 10,000 hats can be put away. But into mothballs, or handy on your desk? Dat is the question.
  • T_dub
    Keep it now and sell them in a few months on E-Bay.
    It will be like the "Super Bowl Champs - Buffalo Bills" T-shirt.
  • Cypherd
    Will load up on puts if we break the morning lows from yesterday.
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