Revision

This was a very rough week for me – and I also felt a bit insulted when one of our long term subscribers suddenly completely lost it and started to point fingers. Can I really blame the guy? Not really actually – I myself have been running on fumes lately and the last two days of trading were just one of many ugly moments we had to endure in the past few months. However, I still wonder how after four months of juicy profits (please make yourself heard geronimo subs if I am bending the truth here) anyone would blow up in such a fashion after one admittedly bad day.

Now, I just received an email from a subscriber which I in the spirit of complete transparency decided to share with the rest of you – I think it is not only eloquent and very thoughtful – it’s also completely spot on in its reasoning and logic:

Mole,

As one of your customers I think its more professional to offer this feedback personally rather than publicly on the blog.

I am prompted to write because of your “public announcement” and other events of today. I am also writing because I value your service and opinions.

First let me say I am new to trading and so far its more of a hobby. You are one that I learn much from and respect. I offer evidence of your value to me by buying your product. No better way to demonstrate confidence in someone than by buying there service.

Any current frustration with Geronimo is not the draw down. Granted when trading 10 to 20 contacts the draw down is not pleasant especially when stopped out but its part of the game. I will take the high percentage that Geronimo delivers.

The issue that I and I believe many other subscribers are talking about now is the fairly recent inconsistencies with the blank alerts, the blank stop reminders, the system being down and getting manual alerts or information late, alerts that come while the market is falling off etc.

These issues erode a bit of confidence in the technology not in you or Eric. And that erosion of confidence can make it a bit hard to just play the odds, pull the trigger and trust the system. It seems to me that a bit more professional communication, an explanation of the problem and updates of what is being done to correct would alleviate many concerns. Thats customer service. Remember how frustrated you got with the Disqus response?

I believe I am a bit older than you and have been fortunate to enjoy considerable success and luck in many areas. What I have learned in both athletics and building several businesses is that leaders will always take the arrows. People love to shoot at you when you poke your head above the crowd. You have put yourself in (earned actually) a position of leadership and for many different reasons people will shoot at you. Much of the time its unfounded or just jealousy. A true strong leader does not quit or shrink from that. Time will prove him right.

What’s my point? Its a simple one; You are in a position of leadership. Many look to your leadership. Why let a few disgruntled comments derail you? Don’t stop posting the Geronimo results! Post them with pride……it works! The charts and stats will speak for themselves. Let the others squabble, bicker, trade insults and get offend and upset like teenage girls. A leader is above that and just lets performance and results speak for themselves. You have that performance with Geronimo, put it out there. Nothing will silence critics faster than hard evidence.

And why cut retail traders? Having built several companies I know the allure of the thinking that only dealing with “the big boys” seems so much easier. But the facts of most business are that the small customers form the base on which to thrive and grow. What happens when you have 4 or 5 big clients and one walks? You lose 20 to 25% of your business. Now as best I can figure you have around xxx subscribers to Geronimo. Thats $xxxx a month. Why would you throw that base away even if your main focus going forward are larger clients? Think an institution would not ask about blank alerts?

Perhaps I dont understand the world of blogging. I don’t understand the petty arguments I see at times and I don’t understand why you allow yourself to be drawn into that at times.

But I do know you offer a valuable service, I appreciate it and I back up my opinion by paying for it. I hope you don’t quit it.

Ok, I have said enough and maybe I will be banned or canceled (I hope not!) that’s your choice.

Thanks for listening.

Of course he has been banned AND canceled. Just kidding… :-)

Now, I must point out that I believe that Eric and I have been bending over backwards in communicating any technical issues. Just a day ago I sent out a lengthy email explaining the situation to all of our geronimo subscribers – and Eric has been chiming in as well. But yes, in the past few days that dreaded empty alert bug has been rearing its ugly neck way too often and at the wrong time (as if there’s every a good one). But rest assured that Eric and I are working on the issue on both fronts and it will be fixed. I have added additional logging code into my strategy which hopefully will provide important clues next time this happens. The API I am dealing with is a bit complex and the bug is not in my code as far as I can tell – it has to do with the way the orders are being executed by NinjaTrader. Having been a software developer in another life I know how long it can take to fix some obscure bug.

In any case – I have decided to continue the Geronimo service ‘as is’ – both Eric and I realize that we’ll have to face some heat every once in a while, and I guess that comes with the territory. We both feel that we have been as transparent, fair, and forthcoming as humanly possible. And no, we won’t let one subscriber ruin it for the rest of you. We are even working on enabling alerts via chat clients (i.e. Yahoo/AIM/Google, etc.) – but our current focus is on fixing this bug.

And with that I present today’s ugly stats, based on the email alerts:

geronimo/ES: -12.25 (two trades – one completely stopped out – the other stopped out by the close)

That’s probably the worst day ever for Geronimo so far. And yes, we are keeping the stop logic as is – if we saw an opportunity to decrease the stops we would.

Have a good weekend.

This entry was posted on Friday, October 23rd, 2009 at 6:10 pm and is filed under geronimo. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

  • ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T ``°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12108#disqus_thread



    Skål!
  • hank30
    There will be a collapse at some point in the near future. To believe otherwise is disingenuous, they sure could print money as long they attempt reinflate the economy. So far they are losing the battle and deflation continues to be the real threat. Bernanke stated that they intent to break the back of the recession, it means devalue the dollar until inflation reappears. Once it rears its ugly head the Ponzi scheme is up. Structurally the dollar will face dire consequences, but that is a whole different problem which they tackle later. We may see an advance in equities until that critical point.
  • [links are lost in translation, sorry]
    Saturday, October 24, 2009
    The Rear View Mirror

    Someone said that in order to be successful in trading we have to trade like Italians drive – without looking into the rear view mirror. There is some misunderstanding of this advise – some think that no attention should be paid to history because it never repeats precisely. Of course it does not … and it always does. There is nothing new under the Moon – anywhere. Everything already happened in one form or another.

    So what is the “true meaning” of “not looking into the rear view mirror”?

    What happened yesterday or 10 seconds ago is a history for you – it should not affect your future decisions and if you are still “under influence” of the bad trade, or, experiencing euphoria after successful trade – you’d better turn your trading terminal off – one way or another it will affect your future trading decision and it is not always going to be positive influence.



    Speaking of the history in a form it might have some helpful aspects a lot of people attempting to compare current market action with 1975 action.



    2009-10-24_0902Scrillhog posted interesting chart yesterday and it sparked my curiosity (I am a Curious George after all) as to how these periods will compare in terms of TD D-Wave.

    For some reason I could only pull 15 years of SPX data, so I used DJIA instead.

    Just as expected there are a lot of similarities of 1975 vs. 2009 rallies.

    1975

    2009-10-23_2222



    2009

    2009-10-23_2218



    Based on quite similar in % terms of sizes of w1, w2 (which was very shallow – only 23% retracement) and w3 if history repeats to some extent then my expectations of steep correction in the form of w4 retracing 72% of w3 might play out very well.



    But here is the more important “kicker”

    1973 started the greatest bull market in history of American stock market and 1975 wave structure represents w2 of sequence UP on monthly chart.

    (see this “really crappy video” which I posted on August 22nd 2009 here)

    IF that is what it is – then "P3” eagerly awaited by Ellitorians (AKA “Sheepless followers of Bobby Prechter who’s been preaching total collapse for as long as he lived) are going to be greatly disappointed and, indeed, liberated of the rest of their money.



    As an added argument for “we are in w2 of new greatest Bull Makret” you can take a look at that “inflation adjusted” chart which hints that wC of A-B-C corrective of Grand Sequence Up has ended (or about to end) and market is searching for direction now.

    That would play along so well with opinion of the only investor I pay any attention to – Jim Rogers, who (for one or another reason) firmly believes that “they will print so much money that market will go to the Moon”. Only complete fool might deny that it is not what has happened and I bet they will yet to come with more “creative ways” to screw dumb Joe Six Pack who thinks that he is making money if market is going up.



    I’d like to conclude this useless for me historical musing (I do not trade “years” – there is no worse “trend follower” than I) by saying that the main difference between USA of 1975 and today is that there is no such country as USA on the World's Productive Map. No manufacturing, no research, not even financial services which lost any credibility in this crisis. We have NOTHING to offer now except for struggling services industries and quite possible USA is very close to becoming “Sweden Maid” supplier country very soon. The saddest part is that since USaA has lost it’s long standing hegemony – there will be more and more difficult to satisfy enormous appetite for fossil fuels and the rest of “prosperity” will soon be gone.

    But we still make some weapons – and I am afraid it will be used at one final point – that what history tells us.



    Enjoy your stay



    P.S. For those of you who ironic about “stocks going to the Moon” – I’d like to offer great read by Charles Smith.
  • This would have been really interesting if it had included the links and vids.
  • amokta
    quick question, when i bought some dec10 spx 700 puts, the premium i was quoted was $0.7 & it said this on statement. clearly this was an mistake (on the part of the broker/floor). When i pointed this out the next day, the broker re-did the trade at the correct premium next day ($18). But could i have kept the original purchase at the low price (i could have instantly closed original position at mega profit?)
  • goldpackers
    1086 spx is the do or die point
  • goldpackers
    The move could certainly be 1-2 1-2 to the downside. Monday will tell. Favor we have done an a-b-c x a-b and need a c wave down Monday to complete the first CORRECTIVE leg down. Do not believe this is the beginning of a major move down. Favor down into 10-30/ 11-3 a bounce into 11-10 and a hard drop into 11-16/17 with a target of 978 to 1020.
  • jesterx
    go take a look at this chart analysis. Very good indepth...and he has been nailing it so far.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvdnEazmANc
  • P3 will be marked by lots of people losing it.
    One of the favorite votes on my poll for "Indicators of a top" was "Bears attacking each other"
  • don't know 'bout that - some bears are still intelligently cooperating
  • Exactly--that's a great goal. Nobody alone can watch all the elements that could be in play.
  • jesterx
    i believe the highs have been hit and we go down from here..... but it wont come without big volatility....ie. big ups and downs along the way.

    Things dont just go down in a straight line like people in here seem to think..doesnt work like that.
  • http://i591.photobucket.com/albums/ss359/adamkhoek/SPX.jpg

    ^^ consolidation forming to a new move higher or have we already hit our highs?!

  • I have been doing very little trading or even blogging participation for around 2 weeks. My theory---this market will keep going up until it decides not to keep going up. But being long has extreme risk, no need to play that game except for some calender spreads I did selling puts near month, and buying puts June 2010.
    Wednesday, I took a position in SSG, giving credit to Tim Knight for the original idea, and further confirmed by my own charts that confirmed the position strongly. This is a double short on Semi-Conductors.
    Also took puts on MS today. Paid 1.90 and it immediately moved to 2.10 which is nice. Now I can set a contingent stop on it....if MS equity price rises to X.XX, the ask 1.95 for the puts. This should lock in a profit.
    I rarely buy front month puts, you should always get at least 60 days to stay out of Theta Burn. If you don't know what Theta Burn (TB) is, you should not be playing options.
    Everytime I do an update or upgrade to the Chart of Charts, it take several hours of fairly intense number crunching. I missed last weekend, but an inspection of the data told me enough without plotting it....no definitive up or down trend.
    I will try to update Chart of Charts this weekend. It shows an annual return in the low to high 50% range. It keeps you out of trouble, minimizing losses and getting most of the upside.


    The SPY put in a CONFIRMED 3 Outside Down Day (I noticed this possibility on Wednesday, and published here).


    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/recent-...

    Today confirmed it. However, this is kind of stretching the data since I am using a 3 day aggregation period for my candles. Quite unorthodox.

    And for more info on these candles, check out these sites.
    http://www.candlesticker.com/Cs44.asp



    3 Outside Down Day -- See Below, one of the Strongest Patterns

    http://www.candlesticker.com/Bearish.asp



    Finally, Bulkowski torturing the data relentlessly (but no water boarding).


    http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeOutsideDown.html

    3 day candle, 3 Outside Down, 3 Doors Down.....and bulls may be looking to get their "Nickelback"--If you understand the sequence of logic in that sentence, you are either quite hip and smart, or maybe just need some counseling.


    http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&sourc...

    And since we are on that subject, the band Nickelback owns one of the siblings of my cherished little puppy dog. Mine is the small one in the picture, the big one is her older brother from a different litter (also my dog).

    http://screencast.com/t/sshvFUhI
  • Trader_Steve
    deleted by TS
  • fa_q
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say that your readers are similar to customers. You'll have a thousand happy ones and the only few you'll hear from are the pissed off ones. I think you do a helluva job, buddy. You have the best site out there - it's the only one where I post (not that that means anything...)

    As someone who sat through a $280k drawdown this week I totally empathize with your frustration. It's the nature of the business. You want an easy job, work for the post office.

    If I can offer some advice, do what I do on days like this. I drink a Chivas and a Carlsberg, head down to Spearmint Rhino or a similar type of establishment, go back to a bar have another Chivas and Carlsberg and start fresh the next day. And I live by 2 rules:

    1) Don't let the bastards grind you down
    2) Fuck 'em
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    The long version of Cake or Death


    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAOLOGGftTY

    We need a good laugh in this long fucking Primary Wave 2
  • Trader_Steve
    I did not read the blog today after 2:30 so I'm not sure what was posted as to wave counts.

    We may well have a falling wedge at the end of this wave and Monday is going to go up B-I-G. I find it hard to believe that this market has anything left in it so I spent about two hours dealing with how I could get an Eliott Wave count with Friday morning being wave 2 at the high and the market being in a 1-2-i-ii.

    So, submitted for your approval is the following. I don't think I have violated any rules to get to a complex correction that should break sharply lower on Monday. If you think I did, please point it out to me. This will be completely invalidated if SPY trades above 108.30. This possible count looks like Charlie Manson's brain. But we have a battle taking place here for direction. And we might just need a move to about 1121-ish to finally put wave 2 in. But the only way I can come up with us not making new highs is for this count to be right.

    Mole, your thoughts are particularly welcomed. You might need 3-D glasses though...LOL

    http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folders/Jing/media/ccdc27d6-1e52-41db-9292-e804354a8953

    Steve
    Only 20% short as the falling wedge looks a lot easier to accept
  • goldpackers
    Believe we completed a diagonal at 1101 that began at 978. we should correct down into mid November to 978 to 1018 and then move higher into next year before all HELL breaks loose.

    Agree, must be down Monday and probably all week.

    The drop should be a series of a - b - c declines. I expect 1051 to 1061 to complete the initial drop.
  • orth
    TS, So what is the bottom line projection for Monday. I am just learning about wave counts from this site. This market seems to do the opposite of what people think will happen. From a technical stand point there seems to be some nice divergences emegimg in the RS, MACHS and Summation.
  • Trader_Steve
    See my reply to berkshire. I think the mkt has been overvalued times 2. But it's working hard to make me stop telling it that it has to go down. I have two scenarios for Monday. I would think the likley one is we start up.

    Good luck guessing which one is right!,
    Steve
  • I think you are missing a lot of info without using the data directly from the high on... IMHO. It is a bit strange, no doubt, but plausible I suppose. I will try to get back to you with my thoughts either tonight or tomorrow.

    Skål!
  • Both Guiness and Kona Coffee on sale at the local store. You are in luck...Kona coming your way....
  • Trader_Steve
    I didn't use the other data for the last few days because I can't detail one minute and fit it all on a screen to read the labels. I'm not real comfortable with such a complicated count. But it looks like the only one for us to go down, which is what I was trying to see if it was possible. I don't see any rules broken.

    I'd have to say that the preferred count is that we just finished an A-B-C. If so, Monday should be a strong up day with this wedge at the end of wave C. I'm only 20% short and looking to see what can take us lower with this pretty bullish action today after the drop. This count looks as obvious as many others this month that didn't work. That's why I tried to find an alternate count. I think I did, but it is just very complicated!

    Here's the easy one:

    http://www.screencast.com/users/mkt_ronin/folders/Jing/media/3bb7dc6f-ac51-4258-8e89-b78ed763d551

    Steve
  • I usually stick with relatively easy counts - I have seen some 'creative counting' and in many cases the simplistic counts turn out to be right. But yes - not always :-)
  • allonblack
    Mole-

    Yesterday I mentioned to a coworker that Evil Speculator was one if three sites he should check out. I described your site as one with great charts and ideas. I also mentioned that you really care about the readers - that you're trying to give them tools to rise above what the financial markets may bring. Keep it up. You have a great site.

    I am also saying thank you to all if you who contribute. I'm not going to mention names as I don't want to leave out anyone.

    When I'm better with the ruler I will post a chart of my own. Until then thank you.

    Let's overcome.
  • TimV
    Mole- Glad you posted this. Im also grateful for the work you and Eric put into it.

    I really enjoy this site, and the community built around it. Hope everyone has a good weekend.
  • Halfway done (or less if I feel like tacking in some more charts). Look for your browser to die sometime tomorrow.

    Skål!
  • dad1cavo
    MOLE, DAM THE TORPEODS, FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!
  • That's how we Germans lost the war first time around - veee haf loerned our lesson!
  • dad1cavo
    Nope, an American Naval officer said that, but the name escapes me.

    Please do not let a few questionable posters change the way you operate YOUR blog. I visit several times a day. I suspect there others like me. This is the first time in over a year that I poped in. Your descriptions of what goes on in the market are great for an inexperienced guy like me. During the past several months many of the best have stumbled because of the insane drive to 1100. Our day....days are coming.

    PS: I'm half German
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
    I feel once Primary Wave 3 is in full force people will be in better moods....
  • just 1% of traders, but most of those around here ;-)

    we all prefer trading trends we believe are sane

    ask anyone around here how tight their stops would be if we droped in april bellow 450
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Everyone likely laughed when I said what I said about YHOO yesterday:
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12026#comment-20797355

    But YHOO, down 2.5% at the close, took another 1.5% hit AH when Carl Ichan abruptly resigned from the Board:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-very-rare-move-for-activist-investor-carl-icahn-2009-10-23

    So far AMZN has avoided the pop and drop after earnings. It tacked on more AH ending with a high at 7:59PM of 119.33.

    USO traded all over the place AH. Below the close, above the close, and a final sale at the close. With Globex and Forex closed for futures and currencies, not sure who would make those trades without knowing the real price.
  • Mole please don't take this badly, this is not Rammstein but after a stessful day I think this music has, can't say quite why, a soothing effect

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L_fCqg92qks&feature=fvst

    best regards and have a good weekend
  • Not sure about the music, but the video sure was soothing. I was thinking more along these lines for some words of wisdom...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mtbdk7f8JM

    In the words of Nick Hexum "Fuck the naysayers 'cause they don't mean a thing!"

    Skål!
  • yeps we all need
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzy2dgEUOhY&feat...
    another music with soothing video
  • rhae
    I have no idea what the conflict is over here? All I care about is charts and my reaction to them... my SPY daily pitchfork / channel
    http://screencast.com/t/4GXPoVCkEA
  • TheMacroEconomist
    Hey rhae! Don't forget that prior Bradley Turn Date to November 9 is October 22-23. As in yesterday - today.

    However the November 9 date is pegged as "important" as I understand it.
  • Ah... the blissfully serene world you live in...
  • charles_smith
    I'm with you, rhae. If a trade goes sour, well, that's why I have a heavy punching bag a few feet from my desk. Yeah, work it off and don't take it out on others.

    I like your chart--I'm hoping that pitchfork ends up in the Bull's rear end Monday. I know intuition counts for nada, but I have a funny feeling Monday might surprise to the downside.
  • Bartholomy
    rhae, you're 100% right ! Charts and facts !!!
    Thanks to put me back on trail.
    I just want to emphazie again on the only one 100% sure fact we have witch I have describe in my last message... this is important.
  • Bartholomy
    Hi my evil friends,

    Mole, evil team and rat family make a AMAZING GREAT work here !
    And I really appreciate the free thinking that belong between us.
    Mole don't get intimidate, your are a kind of star/god for some of the readers here.

    Public, you need to understand that the tool and discussion here are for informative purpose only, no recommandation.
    If you loose money, it's your fault, your OWN decision.

    People that need to be told how to do buisness instead of doing it make my sad, come on lack of serious.
    Make your call and assume the risk otherwize you're not a the correct place. By bonds and loose it all anyway.

    You click on the buttons, choose to follow your trading system, you haven't been forced**
    **except all the gvt rescue printing and TARP package and other fraud but that is a different story

    I tell what I do, don't copy me... If I makes you doubt or think... it's the goal !
    Choose what make sens based on your evidence and facts.

    There's only one fact we are sure 100% is that we will be wrong. Knowing this, manage it !!!

    Go my evil friends, let get our part of the cake and survive among the sharks.
  • dberliner
    Hey Mole, I am one of your Geronimo subscribers. That guy nailed it on the head. I feel exactly the same. We trust and appreciate you and Eric, and know you will get everything in working order asap. I am the one who offered you guys to try a chat or IM Service (though I assume I wasn't the only one). I'm glad to hear that this thing is now in the works.

    Looks like joining in for Geronimo at the beginning of October has introduced me for a rough ride.. admittedly, I did decide to skip a few signals here and there.. and gladly I'm up a bit for the month. My goal for the future is to trust the signals blindly. From my experience throwing emotions out is the only way to win this long-term.
  • No doubt. Wouldn't they rather be watching their trades than trying to fix some fucking bug...

    Skål!
  • People who say they don't care what people think are usually desperate to have people think they don't care what people think.
    George Carlin
  • The main reason Santa is so jolly is because he knows where all the bad girls live.
    George Carlin
  • I saw that list on eBay :-)
  • +1 for that one ;)
  • The_Grim_Reaper
    I see mostly bearish signals but the big worry for bears is the GDP report on Wednesday. The expectations are high so it could result in major selling if it disappoints, but for GDP to turn positive, like it or not, is a fairly bullish thing, even if it's government manipulated numbers. The market doesn't care. I have a few small bullish positions that I'll dump on a break below 1070 on Monday.
  • The reason I talk to myself is that I'm the only one whose answers I accept.
    George Carlin
  • I talk to myself 'cause no one else listens, and I can't trust anyone but me...

    Skål!
  • the truth is out there
  • When you're born you get a ticket to the freak show.
    When you're born in America, you get a front row seat.
    George Carlin
  • Biffermas
    I'm not sure why you banned Springheel Jack, but he's saying nice things about you on The Slope.
  • You should have seen the email he sent me today - I won't reprint it but here's the subject line:

    "Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics"

    Trust me it didn't get any nicer after that...
  • Biffermas
    Sorry to get in the middle of a spat, especially when it's none of my business and I'm not privy to the details. I like you both, I'll leave it there. Take care, Mole, I enjoy your site very much.
  • Biffermas
    Mole,

    Sometimes a man's "office" is his castle, sometimes it's his coffin. Some days f@#king suck, but pull it together, we appreciate you and need you intact. When you're chewing on life's gristle, don't grumble, give a whistle, and this'll make things turn out for the best!

  • always look on the bright side of life...
  • Biffermas
    Life's a piece of shit, when you look at it! How's it going, SSH?
  • I'm bleeding, arms gone, legs gone and screamming at the market " Come over here, I'll bite you to death"
  • Trader_Steve
    Are you watching the Monty Python specials this week?

    Steve
  • it wasn't me who started "singing" the always look on the bright side of life.

    but I do like MP

  • Biffermas
    Hmmm, maybe I'll come over next week, by then I'll be joining you. :)
  • Blind_Squirrel


    One year, a husband decided to buy his mother-in-law
    a cemetery plot as a Christmas gift.

    The next year, he didn't buy her a gift. When
    She asked him why, he replied, "Well, you still
    haven't used the gift I bought you last
    year!"

    And that's how the fight started.....


    ***********************************************************************

    My wife walked into the den & asked "What's on the TV?"
    I replied "Dust".

    And that's how the fight started.....


    *********************************************************************

    A woman is standing nude, looking in the bedroom
    mirror. She is not happy with what she sees and says to
    her husband, I feel horrible; I look old, fat and ugly. I
    really need you to pay me a compliment.'

    The husband replies, 'Your eyesight's damn near perfect.'

    And that's how the fight started.....

    ***********************************************************************

    My wife was hinting about what she wanted for
    our upcoming anniversary.

    She said,'I want something shiny that goes
    from 0 to 200 in about 3 seconds.

    I bought her a scale.

    And that's how the fight started.....

    ***********************************************************************

    I asked my wife, 'Where do you want to go for
    our anniversary?'

    It warmed my heart to see her face melt in
    sweet appreciation. 'Somewhere I haven't been in
    a long time!' she said.

    So I suggested, 'How about the kitchen?'

    And that's when the fight started....



    **********************************************************************

    My wife and I are watching Who Wants To Be A
    Millionaire while we were in bed, I turned to her and said,
    'Do you want to have sex?' 'No,' she answered.

    I then said, 'Is that your final answer?'

    She didn't even look at me this time, simply
    saying 'Yes.'

    So I said, 'Then I'd like to phone a
    friend.'

    And that's when the fight started....

    ***********************************************************************


    When I got home last night, my wife demanded that
    I take her someplace expensive. So, I took her to a gas
    station.

    And that's when the fight started.....


    ***********************************************************************

    I tried to talk my wife into buying a case of
    Miller Light for $14.95. Instead, she bought a jar of cold cream
    for
    $7.95. I told her the beer would make her look better at night
    than the
    cold cream.

    And that's when the fight started.....


    **********************************************************************
    My wife and I were sitting at a table at my high school
    reunion, and I
    kept staring at a drunken lady swigging her drink as she sat
    alone at a
    nearby table.

    My wife asked, 'Do you know her?''Yes,' I sighed, 'She's my old
    girlfriend.

    I understand she took to drinking right after we split up those
    many
    years ago, and I hear she hasn't been sober since.'

    'My God!' says my wife. 'Who would think a person could go on
    celebrating that long?'

    And that's when the fight started.....

    **************************************************************


    I rear-ended a car this morning. So, there we were along side
    the road and slowly the other driver got out of his car.

    You know how sometimes you just get soooo stressed and little
    things
    just seem funny?

    Yeah, well I couldn't believe it. He was a DWARF!!!
    He stormed over to my car, looked up at me, and
    shouted, 'I AM NOT HAPPY!!!'

    So, I looked down at him and said, 'Well, then
    which one are you?'

    And that's when the fight started.....


    ***********************************************************************

    I took my wife to a restaurant. The waiter, for some reason,
    took my
    order first. 'I'll have the strip steak, medium rare, please.'
    He said,
    'Aren't you worried about the mad cow?'
    'Nah, she can order for herself.'

    And that's when the fight started......
  • Working on a mother-load weekend post right now. Got 20 chart for y'all as we speak (including some just for you Mr. Hamster). Gotta grab some grub. But be looking for Browser Death 2.0 sometime this weekend.

    Skål!
  • I love noodles, not as much as nutty charts but i LOVE NOODLES.

    Seriously, thanks and keep up the good work

    p.s. do I say enough how I appreciate your work?
  • Not enough, no. :-P Just kidding.

    I do what I can. Glad to see some people appreciate it.
    Thanks though. Seriously, it is always nice to know your work is appreciated.

    You it up too. You're pretty clever man.

    Skål!
  • thanks

    one of this days please send me a mail on what my biggest errors are ;-) (I mean it, it's through critics that we learn, seldom from praise)
  • Mole

    Just my two cents.

    I don't do geronimo because I don't trade options.

    Nevertheless I follow your posts, and as you mention, the comments of your subscribers.

    I understand your (over?) reaction. People can insult and tease any mistakes in what you give for free (screw them), but for what you sell your pride (and I respect that) doesn't let pass any comment on the seriousness of what you do.

    Respect Mole, your "problem" is your honor, wish there were more faulty people like you.

    That's why I linked ASAP to geronimos stats (that I know are good by feeling the response of your subscribers, and by begining to know you), truth is the ally of honourable people.

    Though we never met and seldom exchanged more than some comments I was hororoured when you passed me (with others) to moderators, because I enjoy being appreciated and dealing with people I respect.

    As for Jack I feel sorry, there were many good exchanges with him and I feel a bit sad, not only by is future absence but also for him having had a undignifying moment. If you are there jack, learn, one mistake doesn't undo a man and we all (at least I do) have moments we ar ashamed of. I don't think less of you and hope you'll understand and grow (don't even know your age, but it's irrelevant) you always seemed ok but certain moments bring the best and the worst out, the important is learning.

    well, as a final remark, Bad days for geronimo (could someone check) seem to be in themselves a good indicator that BAU went AOL and a trnd change might be in order.

    best regards

    p.s. there are other nice trading blogs, but this one has a lot of people whom (through what I see and hear) I'd be proud to call my friends. think about it mole, why do you think they (and me too) stay around? by the fruit...
  • gregn
    You guys have a great weekend. I'm out. Look forward to Monday.
  • Blind_Squirrel
    A little weekend humor 4 this stressful week:

    A man checks into a hotel in Belfast while on a business trip and was a bit lonely.

    He thought of one of those girls you see advertised in phone box when you're calling for a taxi.

    He popped into a phone box in Gt Victoria Street near the hotel and found an ad for a girl calling herself Erogonique, a lovely girl, bending over in the photo. She had all the right curves in all the right places, beautiful long wavy hair, long graceful legs...... well, you get the picture! He copied the phone number and returned to his hotel.

    When back in the room he figures, what the hell, give her a call.

    'Hello,' the woman says.

    God, she sounded sexy.

    'Hi, I hear you give a great massage and I'd like you to come to my room and give me one.. No, wait, I should be straight with you.... I'm in town all alone and what I really want is sex. I want it hard, I want it hot, and I want it now. Bring implements, toys, rubber, leather, whips, everything you've got in your bag of tricks. Tie me up, cover me in chocolate syrup and whipped cream, anything you want! Now, how does that sound?'

    She says, 'That sounds fantastic, but you need to press 1 for an outside line.'

    It took three hours for him to get the courage to checkout next morning.
  • Thanks... Needed that.

    Skål!
  • Pretty funny, here's one for you.

    A woman finishes taking a shower, she puts on a towel and has her husband jump in. As soon as she leaves the room she hears the doorbell, so she goes and answers the door in her towel, she's like a pretty laid back kind of gal.

    Bob, the neighbor, is waiting outside, he sees her and says "I'll pay you $800 to take your towel off" so she does and he checks out her fairly-rocking-for-a-woman-in-her-early-40s body. He smiles, hands her eight hundred bucks and says good day.

    When the woman returns upstairs her husband asks "hey who was that?"

    "Oh it was Bob."

    "Oh great, is he still around? Guy owes me eight hundred bucks."
  • Good laughs.. Thanks.

    Skål!
  • Mole, I think you could improve Geronimo by researching procedural stop losses. Instead of the stops being a binary "if price reaches x then close" use some technicals to sniff out if there's HFT painting going on and then use a time and price logic for a secondary hard-stop. Just a thought, maybe you've already got something like this.
  • LOL - what you think we are looking at? Problem is that the patterns are not as clear - we are looking at every single candle every day.
  • http://www.stratasearch.com/

    Automation + Godel-esque long volatility imagination = win
  • Thanks - but a) NinjaTrader and MultiCharts both have automation - and b) Geronimo cannot be back tested - you need live tick data, the historical feed does not do it. Why are there differences? I have no idea - maybe it's because NT is not tick based internally. Might work on something like TickZoom but that stuff is still in alpha.
  • Sounds like you could consider investing in historical tick data for at least the ES.

    http://www.tickdata.com/

    In any case, developing a good bullshit indicator is something I'm going to be exploring using Chaos Hunter/Nueroshell by Ward Systems and I imagine is something you'd be interested in pursueing as well. If I do hit on something and I'm not bound by any proprietary NDAs I'll be happy to share. Right now I'm thinking about the discrepancy between posted exchange volume and VWAP, try to see what the differential is and therefore how active dark pool routing is. TICK band volatility and Advance Decline band volatility are another two possible candidates.
  • gregn
    I think you have been too transparent. Never admit if/when you are wrong. Just revise your old posts and you'll be golden.
  • He's not running a fortune 500 company... :-P

    Skål!
  • gregn
    Practice makes perfect, berk. Maybe one day...
  • I almost threw "Yet" into there. I can only stroke his ego so much... Gotta leave some of that for everyone else...

    Skål!
  • gregn
    Berk, did you trade that beautiful H&S in X back in June?
  • Aaah X - the good ole' days - it was my biggest money maker in 2008. Love that symbol.
  • gregn
    I think it is one of the best stocks to short, personally. It is pretty damned volatile on a regular basis.
  • It's also a good trend trade - I love it.
  • gregn
    I live in Pittsburgh so there is nothing better than driving past USX while on the short side of it. It feels empowering ;D
  • LOL!! Just don't stop your car..

    Skål!
  • gregn
    I tell Jeeves to step on it when we are in the vicinity, have no fear berk.
  • BTW - I'm sure both of you have noticed this one:

    http://screencast.com/t/A0RHtGEJ55
  • don't mention X, I went long a 4 or 5 thousand shares at 16 something but sold at 50% profit because for me "the end was near"

    between the end of february and the end of march I bought very near the bottom the bottom thousands of IRE, BAC, WRES, X, CMZ, STX (and GE but that was too expensive, close to 9). ANd then sold them between profits of 20% and 50%. I was in a hurry, for me the bounce would last 6 weeks and the bottom was 2 months away and I'd get them cheaper (and banks was a bet that they'd sustain them at least for a while).

    Did I misread the trend....



  • ejackson415
    That's exactly me too. I was short thru beginning of March, then called the bottom and went long on WFC at 10, JPM at 18, and GE at 8. Held for 2 weeks until near options expiration and sold everything, waiting for SPX 450. Been trying to play the short side ever since. oooops
  • not exactly, when i saw 870 breeched I saw that there was a clear path to 960, made some on triple longs there
  • you need to break away your rear view mirror
  • She's such a pretty trade, isn't she.

    Skål!
  • gregn
    Oh yeah -- the fact that it is sloped that way makes it even more bearish.
  • Glad you pointed that out - my thoughts exactly. Also note how the ATR usually diminishes before the drop.

    Shall we set an alert for 39.8?
  • AS2009
    You will want to see it close below the gap support @ 39.57 before entering it, as it could bounce from there .... if it does, then next support @ 37.5, then 34, then 30 ... this would be a great trade !!

    Berk - thanks a ton for your reply ... yeah 6% really hurt ... specially when your account is in the 5K range ... am starting out afresh with TA after losing a lot of money in the past, however don't feel so great today .... :( :( - need to rethink what I am doing wrong ... my analysis is good ... my entries / exits really get screwed up ...add in the fact that I cannot day trade and it makes for a really wild day on volatility like this ....

    BTW on MOS, I entered on the break of the strong trendline, however with the flag forming, now ended up below it ....

    Thanks for your help and quick response :)
  • best bet in your case would be to day trade /NQ - margin req 3500, no PDT rules, TOS can give you $2+ per trade
    of course - you need to be FAST, know WHAT you are doing and have steel stop loss rules

    /NQ behaves way more "technically organized" than /ES and volume is good.

    Instead of "spreading your bets" - why don't you perfect one instrument?
  • gregn
    Definitely. I am not sure how the earnings next Tuesday will play out. I have an alert set in ToS for 40.
  • Oh darn it - those damn earnings. Well, it's worth a shot if for a little gamble but yes, wish that one was not happening next week.
  • No.. I wasn't back into trading the markets yet. I was still trying to get my life straight. Crystal clear wasn't she...

    Skål!
  • Here's your 2nd chance:

    http://screencast.com/t/A0RHtGEJ55
  • Guest
  • If people get pissed it is their fault. You have thoroughly explained the risk:reward. Does a full loser kill a couple of winner, yeah, but as long as the likelihood of winners remains above 4:1, you are a winner.

    It's the dreaded spread dilemma where one loser (especially if you are trading on an account to small for this) wipes you clean. It is also about discipline. You are only looking for a 2.5 point gain. If you miss the alert (or it is blank) and the tape is up a half point, that's a no go.

    You know I am not just supporting you cause I like you. I agree that people are being a little unreasonable lately (myself included FOR SURE in the past few days). Sign of the times.

    Hell, I missed an exit today on a 3 point winner because some chick called me today, and I decided to go outside to answer (no cell service in the office). My level was tripped (absolute low for the day) but I didn't get my fill... Did I want to bitch her out for calling me (eh, kinda), but it was really ONLY my fault.

    You have been plenty transparent from what I can see. Let the talkers talk and keep on walking your walk mate.

    Skål!
  • "Did I want to bitch her out for calling me"

    Ahem - NO - not if you're planning to get some poonani this weekend ;-)

    FWIW - after giving this more thought - it's completely idiotic to even insinuate that Eric and I are both lying. Think about it - we are blogging and there are thousands of people (plus our subs) watching every move we make and (over-) analyze anything we say. So, would we really be so stupid as to post inaccurate stats? If we ran some closed shop without public participation we might be able to get away with that for a while. But if you run a blog and a trading alert service then the truth, my friend, is your very best friend.
  • ACJ
    LOL. You'd be able to get away with a lie for less than an hour before some eagle-eye'd rat asked about it
  • Agreed. But if she is gonna try to give me the run-around this weekend, then YES, I wanted to bitch her out.

    I'll let you know which one of my personalities was right later on... :-P

    Skål!
  • Run around? Don't bitch - just say 'sure, I'm just going to make other plans - see ya'. Trust me - THAT drives them crazy! :-)

    Had I just known all the stuff I know now back when I was 25 - I did get a lot of tail but probably could have doubled up.
  • Oh, I did. She didn't like that I was planning on moving some OTHER girl this weekend. She quickly agreed for a visit. However, this one is more fickle that Mistress Market.

    Thanks for the tips though...

    Skål!
  • gregn
    Aye, a leader you are indeed, cap'n.
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